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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2001

Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts

Predictions of future potential Earth impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs) have become commonplace in recent years, and the rate of these detections is likely to accelerate as asteroid survey efforts continue to mature. In this paper we describe the metrics introduced, and we give numerous examples of their application. This enables us to establish in rough terms the levels at which events become interesting to various parties.

asteroid impact hazard↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comparing the Earth Impact Flux from Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids

Long-period comets (LPC), defined here as those active comets with orbital periods greater than 200 years, are the most difficult objects to mitigate should one be found on an Earth threatening trajectory. The arrival of these objects from the distant Oort cloud cannot be predicted and the impact warning time would be measured in a few months - not years. At the distance of Jupiter, an inactive cometary nucleus with a diameter of one kilometer and a geometric albedo equal to 0.04 would have an apparent magnitude fainter than 25 near opposition and, hence would be well outside the detection capability of current NEO search telescopes. In general LPCs do not become active, and hence discoverable, until inside the orbit of Jupiter and it takes but nine months for a LPC to travel the distance from Jupiter's orbit to that of the Earth.Estimating the impact energy for long-period comets is particularly difficult because the sizes and masses of these objects are not well known. Their solid nuclei are hidden from ground-based telescopes by their gas and dust atmospheres and even when nearby spacecraft observations can determine a size and shape for a cometary nucleus, there are no direct determinations of any cometary mass or bulk density to date. However, a variety of indirect bulk density determinations consistently provide values below one gram per cubic centimeter, the value for water. From measurements made by the Deep Impact spacecraft during its encounter with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005, the bulk density was estimated to be 0.6 grams per cubic centimeter. The mean impact velocity of a LPC is about 51 km/s, three times the 17 km/s value for a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA) so the impact energy for an LPC would be 9 times that of a NEA of similar mass. However, the bulk density of a comet (approx. 0.6 g/cu cm) is several times less than the density of a stony NEA (approx. 2.6 g/ cu cm) so for a LPC and a stony NEA of the same size, the LPC's impact energy would be about twice that of the NEA.To properly allocate the limited resources available for NEO surveys and physical characterization, it is important to understand the relative threat from long-period comets versus the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids.

near Earth objects↗
NASA NTRS2002

Laser Prevention of Earth Impact Disasters

Today we are seeing the geological data base constantly expanding as new evidence from past impacts with the Earth are discovered and investigated. It is now commonly believed that a hypervelocity impact occurring approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula area was the disaster responsible for the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including of course the dinosaurs. What is sobering is that we believe now that this was just one of several such disasters and that some of the others caused extinctions to even a greater extent. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important problem facing human civilization. While there are many global problems facing our planet including overpopulation, pollution, disease, and deforestation; none of these offer the potential of rapid, total extinction. Rapid is the operative word here in that many of the global problems we face may indeed, if not sufficiently addressed, pose a similar long-term threat. However, with the impact threat, a single, almost unpredictable event could lead to a chain reaction of disasters that would end everything mankind has worked to achieve over the centuries. Our chances of being hit are greater than our chance of winning the lottery. We now believe that while there are only about 2000-earth orbit crossing rocks great than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 100,000 rocks in the 100 m size range. The 1 kilometer rocks are difficult to detect and even harder to track. The 100 m class ones are almost impossible to find with today's technology. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing us? The answer is a resounding yes. By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with high-energy laser stations in orbit, we can deflect rocks from striking the Earth. This is accomplished by irradiating the surface of the rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact Imperative: Laser Ablation for Deflecting Asteroids, Meteoroids, and Comets From Impacting the Earth

Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula area. This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range, Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infra-structure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Dynamic PCA and Machine Learning Tool for Automated Identification of Solar Wind Disturbances Impacting Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere is continuously impacted by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, such as shocks, discontinuities, magnetic clouds and more. Understanding how such disturbances propagate from the Sun and what is their impact on the different magnetospheric domains is key to understanding and forecasting energy transfer from the solar wind to Earth. The large number of overlapping solar wind and magnetospheric missions carrying magnetometers and the recent advances in communications and data storage technologies have enabled an unprecedented quantity of high-fidelity magnetic field data captured by in-situ spacecraft to be available at the click of a button. However, this massive quantity of available data can prove unwieldy for researchers, limiting the identification of interesting phenomena and disturbances to a relatively small percentage of the total dataset. Several techniques have been previously developed for automated identification of specific types of magnetic anomalies, but these methods are typically mission-specific and can be difficult to generalize. We present initial results for a generic method of automated anomaly detection in magnetic field measurements based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering via machine learning. The benefit of our technique is its high degree of generalizability and flexibility which make it a most useful data survey tool for a wide range of magnetic field datasets. This method can also be applied simultaneously to other observed time-series properties like plasma density, pressure, and velocity for more accurate event identification. Additionally, the application of this method to data captured by multiple spacecraft enables the simultaneous identification of disturbances and the determination of their propagation characteristics. Initial evaluation of this technique has been performed using data from Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS missions, providing a testbed scenario for the future Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) platform instruments that will measure solar wind and IMF properties from lunar orbit onboard the Gateway station.

Miguel Martinez-Ledesma↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Dynamic PCA and Machine Learning Tool for Automated Identification of Solar Wind Disturbances Impacting Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere is continuously impacted by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, such as shocks, discontinuities, magnetic clouds and more. Understanding how such disturbances propagate from the Sun and what is their impact on the different magnetospheric domains is key to understanding and forecasting energy transfer from the solar wind to Earth. The large number of overlapping solar wind and magnetospheric missions carrying magnetometers and the recent advances in communications and data storage technologies have enabled an unprecedented quantity of high-fidelity magnetic field data captured by in-situ spacecraft to be available at the click of a button. However, this massive quantity of available data can prove unwieldy for researchers, limiting the identification of interesting phenomena and disturbances to a relatively small percentage of the total dataset. Several techniques have been previously developed for automated identification of specific types of magnetic anomalies, but these methods are typically mission-specific and can be difficult to generalize. We present initial results for a generic method of automated anomaly detection in magnetic field measurements based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering via machine learning. The benefit of our technique is its high degree of generalizability and flexibility which make it a most useful data survey tool for a wide range of magnetic field datasets. This method can also be applied simultaneously to other observed time-series properties like plasma density, pressure, and velocity for more accurate event identification. Additionally, the application of this method to data captured by multiple spacecraft enables the simultaneous identification of disturbances and the determination of their propagation characteristics. Initial evaluation of this technique has been performed using data from Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS missions, providing a testbed scenario for the future Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) platform instruments that will measure solar wind and IMF properties from lunar orbit onboard the Gateway station.

Miguel Martinez-Ledesma↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mid-Infrared Imaging of Exo-Earths: Impact of Exozodiacal Disk Structures

The characterization of Earth-like extrasolar planets in the mid-infrared is a significant observational challenge that could be tackled by future space-based interferometers. The presence of large amounts of exozodiacal dust around nearby main sequence stars represents however a potential hurdle to obtain mid-infrared spectra of Earth-like planets. Whereas the disk brightness only affects the integration time, the emission of resonant dust structures mixes with the planet signal at the output of the interferometer and could jeopardize the spectroscopic analysis of an Earth-like planet. Fortunately, the high angular resolution provided by space-based interferometry is sufficient to spatially distinguish most of the extended exozodiacal emission from the planetary signal and only the dust located near the planet significantly contributes to the noise level. Considering modeled resonant structures created by Earth-like planets, we address in this talk the role of exozodiacal dust in two different cases: the characterization of Super-Earth planets with single space-based Bracewell interferometers (e.g., the FKSI mission) and the characterization of Earth-like planets with 4-telescope space-based nulling interferometers (e.g., the TPF-I and Darwin projects). In each case, we derive constraints on the disk parameters that can be tolerated without jeopardizing the detection of Earth-like planets

Defrere, Denis↗
NASA NTRS1985

A search for evidence of large body Earth impacts associated with biological crisis zones in the fossil record

The natural history of the Earth, how the present plant and animal species developed, how others completely died out, etc., was studied. The rock strata sampled and studied were at the time of deposition at sea bottom. It was found that, exactly at the stratigraphic level corresponding to the extinction, a thin clay layer was greatly enriched in the the rare element iridium. It was hypothesized that the excess irridium at the boundary came from a large steroid like object that hit the earth, and that the impact of this object threw up a dust cloud dense enough and long lasting enough to bring about the extinction of a wide variety of plants and animals, producing the unique break in in the fossil record, the cretaceous-tertiary boundary. The same iridium and platinum metals enrichement are found in a thin clay layer that corresponds with the boundary as difined by sudden radical changes in plant populations. The irridium enrichement is confirmed at other fresh water origin rites in the Raton Basin.

Orth, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Laser Prevention of Earth Impact Disasters

We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 100,000 or more objects in the 100m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing us? The answer is a resounding yes! We have the technology to prevent collisions. By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span.We recommend that the World's space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards a multiple option defense capability. While lasers should be the primary approach, all mitigation options depend on robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow mitigation. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Orbit Determination Accuracy for Comets on Earth-Impacting Trajectories

The results presented show the level of orbit determination accuracy obtainable for long-period comets discovered approximately one year before collision with Earth. Preliminary orbits are determined from simulated observations using Gauss' method. Additional measurements are incorporated to improve the solution through the use of a Kalman filter, and include non-gravitational perturbations due to outgassing. Comparisons between observatories in several different circular heliocentric orbits show that observatories in orbits with radii less than 1 AU result in increased orbit determination accuracy for short tracking durations due to increased parallax per unit time. However, an observatory at 1 AU will perform similarly if the tracking duration is increased, and accuracy is significantly improved if additional observatories are positioned at the Sun-Earth Lagrange points L3, L4, or L5. A single observatory at 1 AU capable of both optical and range measurements yields the highest orbit determination accuracy in the shortest amount of time when compared to other systems of observatories.

Kay-Bunnell, Linda↗
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-Impacting CMEs

Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

Kay, C.↗