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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Earth System Models using ML/AI

Focal Area(s): (1) We put forward the concepts of data assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization and unsupervised learning applied to downscale information within Earth System Models (ESMs). (2) We discuss predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection) to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs. The AI-based models will run five-six order of magnitude times faster, yet will provide similar accuracy, allowing us to provide range bounds on uncertainty faster and thus enabling faster extreme event identification. (3) Further, we consider the insight gleaned from complex data (observed/simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

No 182W evidence for early Moon formation

The Moon-forming giant impact was probably the last major event in Earth’s accretion, so dating this event is critical to determine the timeline of terrestrial planet formation. Recently, Thiemens et al. used the short-lived 182 Hf– 182 W system to argue that the Moon formed within the first 60 Myr of Solar System history. Here we demonstrate, however, that mixing processes during and after the giant impact modified the 182W compositions of the Earth and Moon, which hampers the use of the Hf–W system to date the Moon. Our results show that the lunar 182 W record is fully consistent with a recently determined, younger age of the Moon of 142 ± 25 Myr after Solar System formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Meteorological, reference evapotranspiration and estimated transpiration data, July 2020-Dec 2021, Slate River Floodplain, Crested Butte, Colorado

This data package includes a time series of meteorological data (air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, precipitation, wind speed, soil heat flux, incoming shortwave radiation, incoming longwave radiation, outgoing shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation) from the Slate River floodplain outside Crested Butte, Colorado, a focus field site for the SLAC Floodplain Hydro-Biogeochemistry SFA. The data was generated as part of the work targeting the overarching research question for the SLAC SFA: How do ubiquitous subsurface interfaces mediate molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and groundwater quality in floodplains and watersheds? The package also includes reference evapotranspiration calculated via the Penman-Monteith equation and an estimate of willow (Salix spp.) evapotranspiration using the method of Irmak et al., J. Hydrology, 2013. Due to two malfunctioning sensors (incoming shortwave radiation from Oct 2020-May 2021 and incoming longwave radiation from May 2021-March 2022), observed net radiation and calculated evapotranspiration are only included from July-October 2020. However, users may be able to extend calculated evapotranspiration using estimates of these two parameters from other sources. Both sensors have been replaced and data beyond 2021 be uploaded to this repository when it is available.Within the data package, "FLMD.csv" describes file-level metadata and "dd.csv" defines column headers and universal terms across the dataset. The data package includes 3 "*data.csv" files, two for meteorological data for 2020 and 2021 and one for reference evapotranspiration and transpiration data from 2020 ("SLT_OBJ2_PenmanMonteith_2020_data.csv"). Each "*data.csv" file of meteorological data has a corresponding "*_InstallationMethods.csv" file that describes the location, sensor model, sensor serial number and other metadata corresponding to each measured parameter. We also include a Jupyter notebook ("PenmanMonteithET_Calculations.ipynb") that details the assumptions and equations used to calculate daily and hourly reference evapotranspiration and daily willow transpiration from raw meteorological data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-lapse imagery in 2017 and 2018 at the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado

Time-lapse imagery was collected using an automated RGB camera mounted on a pole at the base of the northeast-facing hillslope at the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado. The imagery was intended to support a better understanding of plant dynamics and their controls during the growing season. The dataset includes RGB images archived in four zip files (containing imagery in JPEG format), corresponding to photos taken from the hillslope and the adjacent floodplain during 2017 and 2018. A fifth zip file contains a few AVI movies that compare imagery between the two years. The AVI files can be read with most media players applications. The archive contains a total of five *.zip files and three csv metadata files (flmd.csv, dd.csv, and locations.csv).This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Informed Learning for Predictive Multi-Scale Modeling of Water Cycle and Extreme Events

Climate and earth system models have limited skill in predicting water cycle and associated extremes such as intense rain- and wind-producing storms and resulting hazards across all timescales. Water cycle predictions are inherently limited by the predictability of the chaotic system, but large potential for improving predictions remains untapped due to limited use of data-model integration to improve predictive modeling. This white paper proposes a hybrid data-physics paradigm based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to improve the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). In particular, we aim to predict and quantify uncertainties of water cycle processes and low probability high impact events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Key problems of the four-dimensional Earth system

Compelling evidence indicates that the solid Earth consists of two physicochemically distinct zones separated radially in the middle of the lower mantle at ~1800 km depth. The inner zone is governed by pressure-induced physics and chemistry dramatically different from the conventional behavior in the outer zone. These differences generate large physical and chemical potentials between the two zones that provide fundamental driving forces for triggering major events in Earth’s history. One of the main chemical carriers between the two zones is H 2 O in hydrous minerals that subducts into the inner zone, releases hydrogen, and leaves oxygen to create superoxides and form oxygen-rich piles at the core–mantle boundary, resulting in localized net oxygen gain in the inner zone. Accumulation of oxygen-rich piles at the base of the mantle could eventually reach a supercritical level that triggers eruptions, injecting materials that cause chemical mantle convection, superplumes, large igneous provinces, extreme climate changes, atmospheric oxygen fluctuations, and mass extinctions. Interdisciplinary research will be the key for advancing a unified theory of the four-dimensional Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A critical review of molybdenum sequestration mechanisms under euxinic conditions: Implications for the precision of molybdenum paleoredox proxies

The observed difference in molybdenum (Mo) mobility and isotopic fractionation under oxic versus euxinic (i.e., anoxic and sulfidic) aqueous conditions provides a sound operational basis for the use of Mo geochemical signatures in ancient sedimentary records to infer palaeoceanographic redox conditions. While Mo is known to exist predominantly as molybdate (MoO 4 2– ) in oxic waters and convert into thiomolybdate species (MoO x S 4-x 2– ) under euxinic conditions, the pathways that lead to Mo sequestration are highly debated. As mechanistic understanding of Mo sequestration is crucial for accurately reconstructing the chemistry of ancient oceans and constraining the timing and intensity of oxygenation events through Earth's history using Mo paleoproxies, we have closely examined the current proposed mechanisms for Mo sequestration across a wide range of euxinic conditions. Through compilation and comparison of such information, we aim to provide an integrated view of Mo sequestration processes, to identify the current controversies as well as the roots of such controversies, and importantly, to propose avenues for future research. Here, sequestration of Mo may occur through complexation with organic matter (OM), reactions with oxyhydroxide and sulfide mineral surfaces, incorporation into iron sulfide crystal structures, formation of Mo-sulfide, and cellular assimilation. However, several major questions remains unresolved, including whether OM complexation plays a significant role in overall sedimentary Mo accumulation, whether the reduction of Mo(VI) occurs during interaction with Fe-S clusters/precipitates and/or with OM, whether microbial enzymatic reduction of Mo(VI) is important in Mo sequestration, whether synergistic effects exist between the biological and abiotic processes in Mo sequestration, and whether differences in reactivity among the various thiomolybdate intermediate species and tetrathiomolybdate influence the Mo sequestration process. At the end of the review, the reliability of Mo paleoproxies is discussed and reevaluated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultrafast X-ray Diffraction Study of a Shock-Compressed Iron Meteorite above 100 GPa

Natural kamacite samples (Fe92.5Ni7.5) from a fragment of the Gibeon meteorite were studied as a proxy material for terrestrial cores to examine phase transition kinetics under shock compression for a range of different pressures up to 140 GPa. In situ time-resolved X-ray diffraction (XRD) data were collected of a body-centered cubic (bcc) kamacite section that transforms to the high-pressure hexagonal close-packed (hcp) phase with sub-nanosecond temporal resolution. The coarse-grained crystal of kamacite rapidly transformed to highly oriented crystallites of the hcp phase at maximum compression. The hcp phase persisted for as long as 9.5 ns following shock release. Comparing the c/a ratio with previous static and dynamic work on Fe and Fe-rich Fe-Ni alloys, it was found that some shots exhibit a larger than ideal c/a ratio, up to nearly 1.65. This work represents the first time-resolved laser shock compression structural study of a natural iron meteorite, relevant for understanding the dynamic material properties of metallic planetary bodies during impact events and Earth’s core elasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for dark matter annual modulation with DarkSide-50

Dark matter may induce an event in an Earth-based detector, and its event rate is predicted to show an annual modulation as a result of the Earth’s orbital motion around the Sun. We searched for this modulation signature using the ionization signal of the DarkSide-50 liquid argon time projection chamber. No significant signature compatible with dark matter is observed in the electron recoil equivalent energy range above 40 eV ee , the lowest threshold ever achieved in such a search. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Seismoacoustic Source Location: Acoustic Approach

Seismic waves and infrasound are key technologies in the International Monitoring System (IMS) to monitor explosive events in the solid Earth and atmosphere. Energetic man-made or natural events (e.g., chemical/nuclear explosions, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes) near the Earth’s surface produce both ground motion and atmospheric pressure disturbances which propagate as seismic waves and infrasound, respectively. Seismic waves have been generally used to detect and identify underground and near-surface events (Myers, et. al., 2007), and infrasound are sensitive to events near the surface or in the atmosphere (Modrak et. al., 2010). Due to their different sensitivities to events, they can complement to each other to improve the event detection and discrimination. The framework of joint seismoacoustic event location has recently reviewed by theoretical research (Koch and Arrowsmith, 2019). Although the early applications showed promising results to improve the accuracy of event location, their application were still limited to a small set of events selected to prove the concepts, and practical capability of the method for operational purpose is not fully evaluated with data. Our final goal is to apply the method of seismoacoustic event location to a larger set of events and evaluate its applicability for operational event location in practice. To that end, we focus on developing and verifying acoustic source location method in this study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming

Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition “scrambling” experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot Droughts and Forest Tree Dynamics in the Amazon - Statistical Models, Scripts, Data, and Outputs

This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Profiles of E1 EMP Coupling to Single Conductors

An electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) event can induce large currents and voltages on electrical conductors such as electrical power transmission lines which span many kilometers and the shorter lines typically tens of meters in length used to monitor equipment controlling the power grid. The exact current and voltage induced on a conductor depends on many factors, such as line height, diameter and length as well as ground conductivity and the location of the EMP event relative to the conductor. The current work focus on the line location and orientation relative to the EMP source. A statistical, Monte-Carlo approach is used in sampling the line configuration and then calculating the induced current and voltage. Thousands of EMP events are simulated on the region of the Earth where the EMP event can couple to a given above-ground conductor and the resulting current and voltage is then calculated on that conductor. Through the many simulations, one can assemble statistics on the insult including the peak value, rise time and pulse width.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

GRB 180128A: A second magnetar giant flare candidate from the Sculptor Galaxy

Magnetars are slowly rotating neutron stars that possess the strongest magnetic fields known in the cosmos (10 14 − 10 15 G). They display a range of transient high-energy electromagnetic activity. The brightest and most energetic of these events are the gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) known as magnetar giant flares (MGFs), with isotropic energies E iso ≈ 10 44 − 10 46 erg. Only seven MGF detections have been made to date: three unambiguous events occurred in our Galaxy and the Magellanic Clouds, and the other four MGF candidates are associated with nearby star-forming galaxies. As all seven identified MGFs are bright at Earth, additional weaker events likely remain unidentified in archival data. We conducted a search of the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor database for candidate extragalactic MGFs and, when possible, collected localization data from the Interplanetary Network (IPN) satellites. Our search yielded one convincing event, GRB 180128A. IPN localizes this burst within NGC 253, commonly known as the Sculptor Galaxy. The event is the second MGF in modern astronomy to be associated with this galaxy and the first time two bursts have been associated with a single galaxy outside our own. Here we detail the archival search criteria that uncovered this event and its spectral and temporal properties, which are consistent with expectations for a MGF. We also discuss the theoretical implications and finer burst structures resolved from various binning methods. Our analysis provides observational evidence of an eighth identified MGF.

Trigg, Aaron C. (ORCID:000900068598728X)↗