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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Robust Combining of Disparate Classifiers Through Order Statistics

Integrating the outputs of multiple classifiers via combiners or meta-learners has led to substantial improvements in several difficult pattern recognition problems. In this article we investigate a family of combiners based on order statistics, for robust handling of situations where there are large discrepancies in performance of individual classifiers. Based on a mathematical modeling of how the decision boundaries are affected by order statistic combiners, we derive expressions for the reductions in error expected when simple output combination methods based on the the median, the maximum and in general, the ith order statistic, are used. Furthermore, we analyze the trim and spread combiners, both based on linear combinations of the ordered classifier outputs, and show that in the presence of uneven classifier performance, they often provide substantial gains over both linear and simple order statistics combiners. Experimental results on both real world data and standard public domain data sets corroborate these findings.

Tumer, Kagan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Isovector Axial Charge and Form Factors of Nucleons from Lattice QCD

A survey of the calculations of the isovector axial vector form factor of the nucleon using lattice QCD is presented. Attention is paid to statistical and systematic uncertainties, in particular those due to excited state contributions. Based on a comparison of results from various collaborations, a case is made that lattice results are consistent within 10%. A similar level of uncertainty is in the axial charge gAu−d, the mean squared axial charge radius ⟨rA2⟩, the induced pseudoscalar charge gP∗, and the pion–nucleon coupling gπNN. Even with the current methodology, a significant reduction in errors is expected over the next few years with higher statistics data on more ensembles closer to the physical point. Lattice QCD results for the form factor GA(Q2) are compatible with those obtained from the recent MINERνA experiment but lie 2–3σ higher than the phenomenological extraction from the old ν–deuterium bubble chamber scattering data for Q2>0.3 GeV2. Current data show that the dipole ansatz does not have enough parameters to fit the form factor over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, whereas even a z2 truncation of the z expansion or a low order Padé are sufficient. Looking ahead, lattice QCD calculations will provide increasingly precise results over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, and MINERνA-like experiments will extend the range to Q2∼2 GeV2 or higher. Nevertheless, improvements in lattice methods to (i) further control excited state contributions and (ii) extend the range of Q2 are needed.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1972

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Hunter, H. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Understanding Data Requirements for Developing Automatic Speech Recognition Systems for Air Traffic Control

In recent years, the application of automatic speech recognition has gained popularity across diverse industries, including aviation. Given the many applications focusing on transcribing air traffic control and management communication, this paper explores the training of OpenAI's Whisper model across multiple existing public and private air traffic control voice datasets in an effort to improve robustness. Combining roughly 60+ hours of various air traffic datasets, our goal is to train a unified Whisper model and expect an average word error rate reduction across testing datasets. Furthermore, this work aims to understand the data quantity requirements for achieving state-of-the art results by comprehensively training Whisper on varying dataset sizes. This work has the potential to improve automatic speech recognition performance across the domain, improve understanding of the quantity of data required by an aviation speech recognition system, and lastly provide metrics to compare and improve upon in future research.

ATC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated quantum error mitigation based on probabilistic error reduction

Current quantum computers suffer from a level of noise that prohibits extracting useful results directly from longer computations. The figure of merit in many near-term quantum algorithms is an expectation value measured at the end of the computation, which experiences a bias in the presence of hardware noise. A systematic way to remove such bias is probabilistic error cancellation (PEC). PEC requires a full characterization of the noise and introduces a sampling overhead that increases exponentially with circuit depth, prohibiting high-depth circuits at realistic noise levels. Probabilistic error reduction (PER) is a related quantum error mitigation method that systematically reduces the sampling overhead at the cost of reintroducing bias. In combination with zero-noise extrapolation, PER can yield expectation values with an accuracy comparable to PEC.Noise reduction through PER is broadly applicable to near-term algorithms, and the automated implementation of PER is thus desirable for facilitating its widespread use. To this end, we present an automated quantum error mitigation software framework that includes noise tomography and application of PER to user-specified circuits. We provide a multi-platform Python package that implements a recently developed Pauli noise tomography (PNT) technique for learning a sparse Pauli noise model and exploits a Pauli noise scaling method to carry out PER.We also provide software tools that leverage a previously developed toolchain, employing PyGSTi for gate set tomography and providing a functionality to use the software Mitiq for PER and zero-noise extrapolation to obtain error-mitigated expectation values on a user-defined circuit.

McDonough, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extending quantum probabilistic error cancellation by noise scaling

Here, we propose a general framework for quantum error mitigation that combines and generalizes two techniques: probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) and zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE). Similar to PEC, the proposed method represents ideal operations as linear combinations of noisy operations that are implementable on hardware. However, instead of assuming a fixed level of hardware noise, we extend the set of implementable operations by noise scaling. By construction, this method encompasses both PEC and ZNE as particular cases and allows us to investigate a larger set of hybrid techniques. For example, gate extrapolation can be used to implement PEC without requiring knowledge of the device’s noise model, e.g., avoiding gate-set tomography. Alternatively, probabilistic error reduction can be used to estimate expectation values at intermediate virtual noise strengths (below the hardware level), leading to partially mitigated results at a lower sampling cost. Moreover, multiple results obtained with different noise-reduction factors can be further postprocessed with ZNE to better approximate the zero-noise limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multifidelity methods for uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal model for phase changes in materials

This study is devoted to the construction of a multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal, non-mass-conserving Cahn-Hilliard model for phase transitions with an obstacle potential. Here, we are interested in estimating the expected value of an output of interest (OoI) that depends on the solution of the nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model. As opposed to its local counterpart, the nonlocal model captures sharp interfaces without the need for significant mesh refinement. However, the computational cost of the nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model is higher than that of its local counterpart with similar mesh refinement, inhibiting its use for outer-loop applications such as uncertainty quantification. The MFMC method augments the desired high-fidelity, high-cost OoI with a set of lower-fidelity, lower-cost OoIs to alleviate the computational burden associated with nonlocality. Most of the computational budget is allocated to sampling the cheap surrogate models to achieve speedup, whereas the high-fidelity model is sparsely sampled to maintain accuracy. For the non-mass-conserving nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model, the use of the MFMC method results in, for a given computational budget, about an order of magnitude reduction in the mean-squared error of the expected value of the OoI relative to that of the Monte Carlo method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1984

Validation of temperature retrievals obtained by the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment on Nimbus 7

An outline is given of LIMS temperature determinations (as a function of pressure) from measurements in two channels covering portions of the 15-micrometer band of carbon dioxide. The known sources of error from the radiometer and data reduction are used to estimate the systematic and random errors expected of the results. Observational determinations of the complete end-to-end precision are obtained by computing the standard deviation of six sequential temperature retrievals in regions where the atmosphere is horizontally uniform. This yields values of 0.2 to 0.6 K, in reasonable agreement with the estimates. A correction for horizontal gradients in the atmosphere leads to a large reduction in the differences between the stratospheric temperatures determined on the ascending and descending portions of the orbit. The temperatures agree in the mean with radiosondes and rocketsondes to within 1-2 K in most regions below 1 mbar. Several interesting, previously unseen features included cold regions in the mid-latitude mesosphere and wavelike vertical variations in the tropics.

Gille, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Flight test experience using advanced airborne equipment in a time-based metered traffic environment

A series of test flights have demonstrated that time-based metering guidance and control was acceptable to pilots and air traffic controllers. The descent algorithm of the technique, with good representation of aircraft performance and wind modeling, yielded arrival time accuracy within 12 sec. It is expected that this will represent significant fuel savings (1) through a reduction of the time error dispersions at the metering fix for the entire fleet, and (2) for individual aircraft as well, through the presentation of guidance for a fuel-efficient descent. Air traffic controller workloads were also reduced, in keeping with the reduction of required communications resulting from the transfer of navigation responsibilities to pilots. A second series of test flights demonstrated that an existing flight management system could be modified to operate in the new mode.

Morello, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft

The process of on-orbit systems identification of flexible spacecraft is examined in terms of the difficulties that are expected because of the potentially unmanageable number of unknown model parameters due to the very high order system models involved. A Jordon block canonical form and global model parameters are used to reduce the number of unknown parameters to manageable numbers. A Bayesian approach is discussed which enables the merging of theoretical models with ground or on-orbit test results by using Unconditional Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation. A Modified Newton-Raphson technique is proposed for determining the model parameter estimates and an expected fit error criterion is recommended for the determination of the model structure and order reduction.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A description and evaluation of TIMER: A time-based terminal flow-control concept

A description of a time-based ATC concept called TIMER (Traffic Intelligence for the Management of Efficient Runway-scheduling) and the results of a fast time and real time computer evaluation are presented. The concept was designed to improve the efficiency of extended terminal area operations (en route approach, transition, and terminal flight to the runway). TIMER integrates en route metering, fuel efficient cruise and profile descents, terminal sequencing and spacing together with computer-generated controller aids, in order to fully use runway capacity and improve efficiency of delay absorption. The concept, by using simplified aircraft models, accommodates both 4-D and non 4-D equipped aircraft and is designed for integration into the manual, voice linked ATC system in an evolutionary manner and still be able to accommodate proposed system upgrade features such as data link and further ground automation. Fast time and real time computer simulation results identify and show the effects and interactions of such key variables as horizon of control, metering fix and final approach delivery time errors, aircraft separation requirements, delay discounting, wind, flight technical error, and knowledge of aircraft final approach speed. The current ATC system has a runway interarrival-error standard deviation of approx. 26 seconds. Simulation results indicate that, with computer aiding, the runway interarrival-error standard deviation for non 4-D equipped traffic can be reduced to the region of 8 to 12 seconds if expected final approach speed is known; however, the reduction is only in the region of 16 to 20 seconds if expected final approach speed is unknown. Another major finding is that en route metering fix delivery-error standard deviation should be kept to less than a number somewhere between 35 to 45 seconds to achieve full runway capacity. This requirement implies the need for either airborne automation or assistance to the controller since the current manual performance in today's en route metering environment is in the order of 1.5 minutes.

Credeur, Leonard↗

DOE OSTI2022

Customer outcomes in Pay-As-You-Save programs

We review the energy and financial outcomes of households participating in several programs based on successive versions of the Pay As You Save¯ (PAYS¯) system. PAYS¯ programs offer non-debt financing for energy efficiency (and sometimes other technologies) in residential buildings through a tariff attached to the home’s utility meter, designed to be offset by project savings. We find that the five programs we study generally serve customers living in zip codes with levels of income and education below the national average and unemployment rates above the national average, demonstrating their potential to improve equity in energy efficiency adoption. Using weather-normalized analysis of energy consumption data, we show that most customers of Midwest Energy’s program reduce annual electricity and gas consumption, averaging 15% and 26% reductions respectively. Changes in energy consumption calculated using this method represent a combination of project effects and changes in occupant behavior. These results are similar to existing analyses of PAYS¯ programs in North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennessee. About half of participating Midwest households generate sufficient energy cost savings to cover their monthly tariff. Various factors, including changes in occupant behavior, program error, causes independent of the customer or program, or some combination thereof may explain lower-than-expected cost reductions in some projects. Given the inherent variability in annual household electricity consumption, we feel these programs are enabling energy efficiency improvements and their attendant co-benefits, including occupant health and comfort and reduced carbon emissions, while reasonably balancing energy savings and tariff costs. Pairing PAYS¯ with additional financial assistance, as well as promoting cost-effective measures such as air and duct sealing, could further broaden program participation by enabling additional projects to meet PAYS¯ program eligibility rules.

Deason, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS1984

Segmented testing

The fraction of faults detected for a digital network is frequently high for the first few input combinations applied out of a set of test vectors. When the particular ordering of test patterns does not appreciably change the shape of the coverage curve, there appears to be an advantage to splitting the test into segments which are applied at different times. It is shown that the expected time to error detection and the probability of an undetected double error can be reduced. The amount of reduction is dependent on the shape of the fault coverage curve. It is conjectured that such a reduction can be obtained for VLSI networks.

Robinson, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Segmented testing

Robinson, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An evaluation of water vapor radiometer data for calibration of the wet path delay in very long baseline interferometry experiments

The internal consistency of the baseline-length measurements derived from analysis of several independent VLBI experiments is an estimate of the measurement precision. The paper investigates whether the inclusion of water vapor radiometer (WVR) data as an absolute calibration of the propagation delay due to water vapor improves the precision of VLBI baseline-length measurements. The paper analyzes 28 International Radio Interferometric Surveying runs between June 1988 and January 1989; WVR measurements were made during each session. The addition of WVR data decreased the scatter of the length measurements of the baselines by 5-10 percent. The observed reduction in the scatter of the baseline lengths is less than what is expected from the behavior of the formal errors, which suggest that the baseline-length measurement precision should improve 10-20 percent if WVR data are included in the analysis. The discrepancy between the formal errors and the baseline-length results can be explained as the consequence of systematic errors in the dry-mapping function parameters, instrumental biases in the WVR and the barometer, or both.

Kuehn, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of Strategic Conflict Management Approaches as Applied to Simulated UAM Operations

This report presents the results of a comparison analysis of candidate Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) strategies as applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The SCM strategies investigated included: no SCM, resource scheduling (RS), resource flow rates (FR), area-based flow rates (AR), and conflict detection and resolution (CR). The study evaluated each strategy against the same 3 levels of flight demand in a representative airspace construct for the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The study also accounted for different levels of uncertainty in operational planning and equivalent levels of trajectory following error. In the analysis, we compared the SCM strategies’ effectiveness in reducing the need for the tactical conflict management layer to act and looked at the metrics of unmitigated losses-of-separation (LOS), flight delays imposed by strategic planning, and throughput of the overall airspace. The study results indicated that the CR strategy was the most effective at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS, even in the presence of trajectory error when uncertainty is accounted for in planning. Thus, if the objective is to reduce the number of actions that the tactical conflict management layer will have to take, in terms of conflicts that may need to be resolved, CR is the strategy to use. The FR strategy was found to be the worst at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS. Thus, it is not very effective at reducing the actions required by a tactical conflict management layer. In the airspace tested, the demand was high enough to produce unacceptable levels of flight delay and reductions of throughput when the SCM strategies were implemented. This was especially evident at the higher levels of trajectory uncertainty and error. The need to account for expected levels of uncertainty becomes more and more important as the demand level increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. This is because the likelihood of flights with LOS increases as the density of operations increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. Accounting for uncertainty in the SCM strategies improves the strategy effectiveness with respect to LOS but increases delays and reduces throughput. Thus, there is a tradeoff between scalability and allowable levels of uncertainty. That is, we can implement an air traffic management construct that allows high levels of uncertainty, but we can expect that same system to have limits on scalability that may be evident even at small demand levels, such as those used in this study. Therefore, the results in this study indicate that an air traffic system should attempt to implement mechanisms appropriate for reducing uncertainty where possible in order to increase the chances for scalability. And this increased level of predictability of operations needs to be balanced with mechanisms for ensuring flexibility when operational conditions and plans need to change, even though those types of changes should be the exception rather than the rule under normal conditions. The study also introduced a trade space that could serve as a mechanism for selecting the appropriate SCM strategy in a trade-off between uncertainty and error, mean flight delay, and the LOS metrics (which this study equates to the potential for tactical conflict management actions). The optimal solution for a given airspace, demand level, and other factors, could likely be a combination of SCM strategies, although this study only compared the use of a single SCM strategy at a time. The CR strategy appeared to have the best opportunity for scalability by limiting the number of potential tactical actions to nearly zero.

Strategic Conflict Management↗