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Results for “Forecasting technological progress”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

DOE SEEDS Program

Forecasting and influencing technological progress in solar energy: A new theory looks at an entire technological ecosystem, and understands a given technology in the context of its position within the entire technological ecosystem. Research has shown a major source of improvements in photovoltaics in recent years was improvements in its component technologies. Our research demonstrates that inputs are the primary driver of progress, and not just for solar, improvements in any given component technology is passed through to all the technologies for which that component is an input, and this process is iterated indefinitely. Such iterative processes enable us to classify technologies into trophic levels, analogous to food webs in ecology, based on their distance from natural resources. This theory predicts that technologies higher up in the technology food chain make progress faster than those below, due to the fact that they benefit from all the improvements in the all component technologies below them, technologies such as computers or photovoltaics. This at least partially explains why some technologies make more rapid progress than others.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Unstructured Grid Adaptation: Status, Potential Impacts, and Recommended Investments Toward CFD Vision 2030

Unstructured grid adaptation is a powerful tool to control discretization error for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It has enabled key increases in the accuracy, automation, and capacity of some fluid simulation applications. Slotnick et al. provides a number of case studies in the CFD Vision 2030 Study: A Path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences to illustrate the current state of CFD capability and capacity. The authors forecast the potential impact of emerging High Performance Computing (HPC) environments forecast in the year 2030 and identify that mesh generation and adaptivity continue to be significant bottlenecks in the CFD work flow. These bottlenecks may persist because very little government investment has been targeted in these areas. To motivate investment, the impacts of improved grid adaptation technologies are identified. The CFD Vision 2030 Study roadmap and anticipated capabilities in complementary disciplines are quoted to provide context for the progress made in grid adaptation in the past fifteen years, current status, and a forecast for the next fifteen years with recommended investments. These investments are specific to mesh adaptation and impact other aspects of the CFD process. Finally, a strategy is identified to diffuse grid adaptation technology into production CFD work flows.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Remotely piloted aircraft in the civil environment

Remotely piloted aircraft (RPA's) are of increasing interest to the military and others, as evidenced by a number of technology and development programs that are currently funded or planned. These programs have led to a number of test aircraft with significant capabilities, and future remotely piloted aircraft are forecast to become even more capable as the technology in a number of important subsystem areas is progressing at a rapid rate. As the size, weight and cost of RPA's is reduced, the prospect of using them for civilian applications becomes more likely.

Gregory, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

AgRISTARS: Agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing

The rationale, objectives, participants, and approach of the AgRISTARS program are described. Progress is reported in activities related to early warning and crop condition assessment; inventory technology development (formerly foreign commodity production forecasting); yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; renewable resources inventory; domestic crops and land cover; and conservation and pollution. Emphasis is on technological highlights.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1972

The social function of technology assessment

The problem of preserving the uneasy balance between a dynamic society and the equilibrium of man-environment society is discussed. Four sets of activities involved in technology assessment are considered: (1) Technology forecasting is necessary to warn of future dangers and opportunities, for effective timing, and to identify tradeoffs and alternatives. But forecasting is also chancy at best. (2) Social indicators need to be developed for the characterization of social status and measurement of social progress, as well as a better understanding of social needs. (3) With respect to technology assessment, the conflict between profitable directions of innovations and socially desirable directions is described, and a systematic way is needed to determine in advance what is technologically feasible to meet social needs. (4) National goals with respect to scientific and technological developments are also required.

Huddle, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Report of the Panel on Computer and Information Technology

Aircraft have become more and more dependent on computers (information processing) for improved performance and safety. It is clear that this activity will grow, since information processing technology has advanced by a factor of 10 every 5 years for the past 35 years and will continue to do so. Breakthroughs in device technology, from vacuum tubes through transistors to integrated circuits, contribute to this rapid pace. This progress is nearly matched by similar, though not as dramatic, advances in numerical software and algorithms. Progress has not been easy. Many technical and nontechnical challenges were surmounted. The outlook is for continued growth in capability but will require surmounting new challenges. The technology forecast presented in this report has been developed by extrapolating current trends and assessing the possibilities of several high-risk research topics. In the process, critical problem areas that require research and development emphasis have been identified. The outlook assumes a positive perspective; the projected capabilities are possible by the year 2000, and adequate resources will be made available to achieve them. Computer and information technology forecasts and the potential impacts of this technology on aeronautics are identified. Critical issues and technical challenges underlying the achievement of forecasted performance and benefits are addressed.

Lundstrom, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending Appendices

Seven appendices related to a previous report on the economic impact of NASA R and D spending were presented. They dealt with: (1) theoretical and empirical development of aggregate production functions, (2) the calculation of the time series for the rate of technological progress, (3) the calculation of the industry mix variable, (4) the estimation of distributed lags, (5) the estimation of the equations for gamma, (6) a ten-year forecast of the U.S. economy, (7) simulations of the macroeconomic model for increases in NASA R and D spending of $1.0, $.0.5, and 0.1 billions.

Evans, M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transferring Knowledge from Observations and Models to Decision Makers: An Overview and Challenges

Over the last 25 years, a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such US, European Community, Japan, China and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching to public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, security, air quality and public health can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This paper surveys and examines a number such applications in terms of their architecture, maturity and economic applicability as they apply to the societal needs. A detailed analysis is also presented of various challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information. This paper also makes attempts to address this topic and discuss possible approaches to deal with this quandary.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2010

Utilizing Earth Observations for Societal Issues

Over the last four decades a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such as the US, European Community, Japan, China, Russia, India has and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching the public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as water resources and availability, energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, air quality and public health, which can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This presentation discusses a process to transition Earth science data and products for societal needs including NASA's experience in achieving such objectives. It is important to mention that there are many challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS1975

Jet aircraft emissions during cruise: Present and future

Forecasts of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are compared to cruise emission for present day aircraft. The forecasts are based on: (1) knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) combustion research in emission reduction technology, and (3) trends in projected engine designs for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Recent progress that was made in the evolution of emissions reduction technology is discussed.

Grobman, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Jet aircraft emissions during cruise - Present and future

Forecasts of engine exhaust emissions that may be practicably achievable for future commercial aircraft operating at high altitude cruise conditions are compared to cruise emissions for present day aircraft. These results summarize jet aircraft emissions studies reported in the Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) Monograph 2 'Propulsion Effluents in the Stratosphere'. The forecasts are based on (1) knowledge of emission characteristics of combustors and augmentors; (2) combustion research in emission reduction technology; and (3) trends in projected engine designs for advanced subsonic or supersonic commercial aircraft. Recent progress that has been made in the evolution of emissions reduction technology will be discussed.

Grobman, J. S.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Future of Work with Robotics - 18599

The DOE Environmental Management mission continues with remaining tasks that are high-hazards to human workers and high-consequences to the nation, resulting in potentially high risks to project costs and schedules. This is the mission pull. At the same time, robotic technologies are hitting a turning point with increased productivity and reliability within society, supporting a technology push. Enabling this push are better computer processing following Moore's Law, breakthroughs in biometric and learning algorithms,and riding a wave of venture funding for intended commercialization of mechatronic and Internet of Thing (IOT) projects. There has been overall improvements in material technologies, algorithms, and software standardization with tools/libraries such as the Robot Operating System (ROS). The internet has made knowledge ubiquitous and the cell phone sector has pushed the boundaries of systems-on-chip technology. This current growth is a race between large global technology companies, and between countries that understand that there is a prize with increased commerce based on being a leader in the field of robotics and automation. This technological advances have placed this technology solidly within the next 4. Industrial Revolution being tracked by the World Economic Council. Policies and law can slow this progression down, but technological changes in adjacent fields will put additional pressure on human workers by being more economical and in saving lives. A fundamental issue is will this change be gradual or disruptive such as with the forecasted singularity. There is also a realization with automation that the transition of human workers to other fields may be temporary, but in the long run, workers may run out of viable work and long-term occupations. The obvious future of human jobs are most assured by those who can embrace the change through the design, development, installment, and maintenance of the technology. Younger workers can be re-educated while older humans can be re-trained. The goal of this paper is to explore all the forces that are enabling this revolution, investigating its many impacts, and speculating on the future of human jobs during nuclear remediation. Automation has made an impact to the manufacturing sector, and has since expanded to the retail and services sectors. The question is will this same automation transition, including robotics and artificial intelligence, occur to the environmental management and cleanup sector, and how should we prepare ourselves for this change. (author)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Research on Resilience of Power Systems Under Natural Disasters—A Review

Natural disasters can cause large blackouts. Research into natural disaster impacts on electric power systems is emerging to understand the causes of the blackouts, explore ways to prepare and harden the grid, and increase the resilience of the power grid under such events. At the same time, new technologies such as smart grid, micro grid, and wide area monitoring applications could increase situational awareness as well as enable faster restoration of the system. This paper aims to consolidate and review the progress of the research field towards methods and tools of forecasting natural disaster related power system disturbances, hardening and pre-storm operations, and restoration models. Challenges and future research opportunities are also presented in the paper.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Report: Hydrogen Storage System Cost Analysis

The Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) has identified hydrogen storage as a key enabling technology for advancing hydrogen and fuel cell power technologies in transportation, stationary, and portable applications. Consequently, FCTO has established targets to chart the progress of developing and demonstrating viable hydrogen storage technologies for transportation and stationary applications. This cost assessment project supports the overall FCTO goals by identifying the current technology system components, performance levels, and manufacturing/assembly techniques most likely to lead to the lowest system storage cost. Furthermore, the project forecasts the cost of these systems at a variety of annual manufacturing rates to allow comparison to the overall 2017 and “Ultimate” DOE cost targets. The cost breakdown of the system components and manufacturing steps can then be used to guide future research and development (R&D) decisions. The project was led by Strategic Analysis Inc. (SA) and aided by Rajesh Ahluwalia and Thanh Hua from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Lin Simpson at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Since SA coordinated the project activities of all three organizations, this report includes a technical description of all project activity. This report represents a summary of contract activities and findings under SA’s five year contract to the US Department of Energy (Award No. DE-EE0005253) and constitutes the “Final Scientific Report” deliverable. Project publications and presentations are listed in the Appendix.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing Global Surface Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR)

Tropical storms and severe weathers are listed as one of core events that need improved observations and predictions in World Meteorological Organization and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) documents and have major impacts on public safety and national security. This effort tries to observe surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at the 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 4 millibars (approximately 1 millibar under all weather conditions). With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts of severe weathers such as hurricanes will be significantly improved. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, NASA Langley DiBAR research team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS1998

LDAR, A Three-Dimensional Lightning Warning System: Its Development and Use by the Government, and Transition to Public Availability

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high precision lightning location system to provide lightning related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning-sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations [45th Weather Squadron, U. S. Air Force (USAF)] where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 MHz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. NASA and Global Atmospherics, Inc. are developing a new system that will replace the unique LDAR components with commercially available and maintainable components having improved capabilities. These components will be phased in to ensure full continuity and access to this important warning technology. These LDAR systems are expected to eventually be available for installation and use by the public at specialized facilities, such as airports, and for general weather warnings via the National Weather Service (NWS) or television broadcast. The NWS in Melbourne has had access to real-time LDAR data since 1993 on an experimental basis. This use of LDAR has shown promise for the improvement of aviation forecasts and severe weather warnings. More so, it has opened the door to investigate the feasibility of issuing lightning-related public advisories. The success of its early use suggests that this technology may improve safety and potentially save lives, therefore constituting a significant benefit to the public. This paper describes the LDR system, the plans and progress of these upgrades, and the potential benefits of its use.

Starr, Stan↗