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GeoCarb L2 Validation- Albedo Error Propagation into XCO2 in the Near Infrared

GeoCarb validation activities Pre-launch validation •Thermovac: Nov-Jan, 2022/3: Edwards/Dryden will move to Palo Alto Nov-March 2022/3 •Day-in-the life simulation-2022 •Simulations near Dallas, TX •Validation of TROPOMI in GeoCarb domain-2022 2GeoCarb post-launch GeoCarb will have gas precision of: •0.3% (1.2 ppm) for XCO2 •0.6% (11 ppb) for XCH4 •10% or 12 ppb for XCO GeoCarb SIF with precision of better than 0.75 W/m2/um/sr GeoCarb will utilize TCCON, GML/DOE aircraft, AirCore, and any validation site with systematic errors better than GeoCarb’s

GeoCarb

The GeoCarb Mission: One Tool in the Evolving Understanding of Methane and Carbon Monoxide Budgets

NASA plans to operate an instrument in geostationary orbit over the Americas beginning in 2022. This mission allows a coordinated study of climate-determining carbon species. Prime focus is on CO2 fluxes, but the reactive species CO and CH4 are particularly relevant to IGAC. Measurements of solar-induced fluorescence will describe plant photosynthesis contemporaneous with emissions. To outline the technology: Grating mapping spectrometery, using a single slit and four focal planes set at 0.76, 1.60, 2.07, and 2.32 microns and ~17000 resolving power. Retrieval profiting from the rich heritage of OCO-2, GOSAT, TropOMI, and GOME/SCIAMACHY. Column concentrations of CO2, CH4, and CO, with finest resolution at 3 km x 6 km. A selection of scans allowing appreciable refinement in fluxes of CO2 and CH4. Rapid re-pointing allowing at least one synoptic observation of all North and South America daily, and 3 observations through the day for selected areas.This presentation is an appeal to IGAC community to use GeoCarb to help improve the attribution of fluxes by sector and by geography. Cost constraints allow GeoCarb only limited listed goals. For example, GeoCarb aspires to constrain CH4 emissions for the whole US, closing the ~60% gap between US EPA estimation and 3-d models. Detailed CO measurements should also aid photochemical and aerosol studies. NASA's TEMPO (UV-Vis geostationary) instrument will overlap GeoCarb. Consequently, HCHO, NO2, aerosol, and CO may be intercompared, allowing elucidation of chemical sources and also transformation timescales. We expect that Sentinel-5P's TropOMI will lead the way here; geostationary imaging will allow diurnal views and reduced cloud obscuration of interesting areas. Analysis of current data suggests interesting questions: (a) puzzling XCH4 diel variations in the Amazonian rainforest; (b) time-varying CO/NO2 relationships in urban plumes. We also urge the suite of airborne and small-sat measurements needed to complete the story at fine scales.

Chatfield, Robert B.

The Ability of GeoCarb to Constrain the Interannual Variability of Carbon Gases over the Amazon

We perform a number of idealized assimilation experiments with the GEOS constituent data assimilation system to test the ability of GeoCarb retrievals of CO, CO2, and CH4 to constrain the interannual variability of these gases over the Amazon. Retrievals for instruments on other satellites which observe in similar channels (e.g. MOPITT, GOSAT, and OCO-2) are limited due to persistent cloud coverage. Given its ability to sample the same location multiple times in one day, the expectation is that GeoCarb retrievals will return more soundings than those from previous missions. The goal of the assimilation experiments is to understand which scanning strategies lead to the best sounding densities and thus have the best chance of constraining interannual variability in the carbon species. The experiments each begin by picking a given year at random from a nature run (i.e., a model simulation meant to represent the truth). The model fields are sampled according to a given strategy and then screened to account for cloud coverage. Next, we pick another year at random and assimilate the synthetic GeoCarb samples into the GEOS model for that year. The output of the assimilation, 6-hourly, 3D fields of each constituent, is then directly comparable to the nature run. This comparison allows us to evaluate the ability of GeoCarb measurements to constrain the interannual variability of each gas.

Weir, B.

TROPOMI Methane Validation in the GeoCarb Domain

Objective: GeoCarb validation •Purpose: •Do the four TCCON sites in the GeoCarb domain characterize satellite validation? •Method: •Assess the error estimates globally vs. in the GeoCarb domain •Assess the use of GML/DOE aircraft for CH4 validation •Systematic error estimate (from Kulawik, 2016): •+ regional bias (stdevof average bias versus validation at each station) •+ correlated error (stdev of daily average versus validation) •-co-location error (above quantities for model@satelliteminus model@valid) •-validation error (systematic error of validation estimates, e.g. model extension) Aircraft validation error •CH4 profile extension error estimate: 7 ppb •Extend aircraft observations to the top of the atmosphere with different model configurations •CAMS, scaling to stratosphere, then taking stratosphere •Extend by repeating top aircraft value to the troposphere, then taking CAMS •Extend with GEOS-Chem run (from 2010). •Difference CAMS-Scale vs. CAMS-Tropo: •3.6 +-5.5 ppb •Systematic error: 6.6 ppb •Extending aircraft to tropopause is blatantly wrong, but these two have the same stratosphere. •Difference CAMS-Scale vs. GEOS-Scale: •6.2 +-8.7 ppb •Do not consider bias since model is 10 years off. Systematic error ~8.7 ppb. •Estimate of systematic error from profile extension (possibly underestimated, resulting in possibly higher TROPOMI error estimate) •7 ppb •Would likely vary some by season, site, other conditions •Aircraft measurement error: 1 ppb •1 ppb from measurement error3

TROMPOMI

Seasonal and Diurnal Opportunities for XCH4, XCO2, and XCO for the Amazonian Rainforest Region Allowing Sampling and Validation

There is considerable interest in the aggregate methane emissions from the Amazon and similar moist tropical regions, and XCH4 measurements are well suited to constrain sources to the global atmosphere. Similarly, XCO2 measurements constrain CO2 in the region. XCO helps to partition CO2 patterns among burning and respiration processes. GeoCarb may allow these column measurements over the Western Hemisphere, but satellite retrieval require exacting calibration and validation by sun-focused Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS). The rarity of sufficiently large gaps in the cloud cover over the Amazon and similar rainforests restricts the validation opportunities for useful FTS observations and even more the opportunities for accurate retrievals. TropOMI observational statistics are extremely poor for the region. We have used two data sources to evaluate FTS opportunities at Manaus, Brazil, an FTS operated for 8 months near Manaus by Mavendra Dubey, and also sun-photometer measurements at several stations. The promise of using data from other satellites, e.g. GOES-16 ( (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization gaps and aerosol layering will be described. We report initial results on five questions: (1) how frequent are observing opportunities of FTS?, (2) What evidence is there that gaps in clouds are wide enough for satellite retrievals at an appropriate accuracy, (3) What is the diurnal and seasonal variability of cloud gaps?, and (4) What limitations are currently suggested for unbiased FTS measurement of XCH4 due to diurnal effects, and (5) What evidence is there for incidence of problematic high aerosol extinction at higher layers of the troposphere (800 hPa to 120 hPa) which alter the XCH4 light-paths?

Chatfield, Robert

Establishing Calibration Standards for Remote Sensing Retrievals of Greenhouse Gases

While in situ greenhouse gas measurements have a concrete calibration standard, establishing a similar standard for remote sensing retrievals remains challenging. As the constellation of greenhouse gas observing satellites grows, such a standard is essential to ensure data are of the quality necessary to support scientific and policy applications. A primary goal of NASA's Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America aircraft campaign is to evaluate column CO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) through coordinated underflights. The campaign also includes airborne lidar instruments that measure the amount of CO2 and CH4 below the aircraft. This presentation introduces a system that establishes calibration standards for OCO-2 and lidar retrievals based on in situ data from the ACT-America campaign. The system assimilates the in situ data into NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to produce high-resolution, two-dimensional transects of CO2 along the flight path which we refer to as curtains. Excluding the ability to sample the entire atmosphere at once, any such analysis must make assumptions about the connection of measurements at different places and times to a given retrieval. We chose to use the GEOS general circulation model forced by meteorology from its data assimilation system because their scientific merits are extensively documented. Furthermore, in areas rich in data, the assimilated curtains approach a field constrained by data alone. Where data are lacking, e.g., the stratosphere, age of air and other transport diagnostics can be used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the model. Given these uncertainties, we can determine the uncertainties of the curtains and thus our ability to evaluate remote sensing instruments. Here, we demonstrate this for several flights over North America and discuss possible applications to upcoming missions, e.g., GeoCarb.

Weir, B.

Emerging satellite observations for diurnal cycling of ecosystem processes

Diurnal cycling of plant carbon uptake and water use, and their responses to water and heat stresses, provide direct insight into assessing ecosystem productivity, agricultural production and management practices, carbon and water cycles, and feedbacks to the climate. Temperature, light, atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and leaf water potential vary over the course of the day, leading to diurnal variations in stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and transpiration. Earth observations from polar-orbiting satellites are incapable of studying these diurnal variations. Here, we review the emerging satellite observations that have the potential for studying how plant functioning and ecosystem processes vary over the course of the diurnal cycle. The recently launched ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3 (OCO-3) provide land surface temperature, evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data at different times of day. New generation operational geostationary satellites such as Himawari-8 and the GOES-R series can provide continuous, high-frequency data of land surface temperature, solar radiation, GPP and ET. Future satellite missions such as GeoCarb, TEMPO and Sentinel-4 are also planned to have diurnal sampling capability of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. We explore the unprecedented opportunities for characterizing and understanding how GPP, ET and water use efficiency vary over the course of the day in response to temperature and water stresses, and management practices. We also envision that these emerging observations will revolutionize studies of plant functioning and ecosystem processes in the context of climate change and that these observations and findings can inform agricultural and forest management and lead to improvements in Earth system models and climate projections.

Plant functioning