NASA NTRS · 20220007333
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Lesley Ott, Brad Weir, Sourish Basu. GeoCarb Level 3/4 Algorithm Updates. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20220007333
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The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Nino and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of CO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Nino event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Nino events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales.
The powerful El Niño event of 2015-2016 - the third most intense since the 1950s - has exerted a large impact on the Earth's natural climate system. The column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) observations from satellites and ground based networks are analyzed together with in situ observations for the period of September 2014 to October 2016. From the differences between satellite (OCO-2) observations and simulations using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we estimate that, relative to the mean annual fluxes for 2014, the most recent El Niño has contributed to an excess CO2 emission from the Earth's surface (land+ocean) to the atmosphere in the range of 2.4+/-0.2 PgC (1 Pg = 10(exp 15) g) over the period of July 2015 to June 2016. The excess CO2 flux is resulted primarily from reduction in vegetation uptake due to drought, and to a lesser degree from increased biomass burning. It is about the half of the CO2 flux anomaly (range: 4.4-6.7 PgC) estimated for the 1997/1998 El Niño. The annual total sink is estimated to be 3.9+/-0.2 PgC for the assumed fossil fuel emission of 10.1 PgC. The major uncertainty in attribution arise from error in anthropogenic emission trends, satellite data and atmospheric transport.
Fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and other human activities are now adding almost 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere each year. Interestingly, as these emissions have increased over time, natural "sinks" in land biosphere and oceans have absorbed roughly half of this CO2, reducing the rate of atmospheric buildup by a half. Measurements of the increasing acidity (pH) of seawater indicate that the ocean absorbs one quarter of this CO2. Another quarter is apparently being absorbed by the land biosphere, but the identity and location of these natural land CO2 "sinks" are still unknown. The existing ground-based greenhouse gas monitoring network provides an accurate record of the atmospheric buildup, but still does not have the spatial resolution or coverage needed to identify or quantify CO2 sources and sinks.