Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Gradient boosting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Photon classification with Gradient Boosted Trees at CLAS12

Dihadron semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering (SIDIS) of 10.6 GeV longitudinally polarized electrons off the proton has been measured using the CLAS12 detector at Jefferson Lab. Two separate channels, π + π 0 and π - π 0 , were analyzed, requiring the reconstruction of diphoton pairs. Here, in this analysis, we addressed the problem of false neutral particles being reconstructed by CLAS12's event builder, polluting the otherwise physical combinatorial background underneath the π 0 peak. A photon classifier using a Gradient Boosted Trees (GBTs) architecture was trained with Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the amount of background π 0 's. We show that the nearest-neighbor features learned by the model lead to a substantial increase in signal vs. background discrimination compared to previous CLAS12 π^0 analyses. The machine learning approach recovers several times more dihadron statistics for the dataset.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗

Using Machine Learning to Predict Cloud Turbulent Entrainment–Mixing Processes

Different turbulent entrainment–mixing mechanisms between clouds and environment are essential to cloud–related processes; however, accurate representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models still poses a challenge. This study exploits the use of machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. Four ML (Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGB], eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression) are examined and compared. It is found that LGB performs best, and thus is selected to understand the impact of entrainment–mixing on microphysics using simulation data from Explicit Mixing Parcel Model. Compared with traditional parameterizations, the trained LGB provides more accurate microphysical properties (number concentration and cloud droplet spectral dispersion). The partial dependences of predicted microphysics on features exhibit a strong alignment with physical mechanisms and expectations, as determined by the interpreting method, thus overcoming the limitations of the “black box” scheme. The underlying mechanisms are that the smaller number concentration and larger spectral dispersion correspond to more inhomogeneous entrainment–mixing. Specifically, number concentration after entrainment–mixing is positively correlated with adiabatic number concentration and liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, and inversely correlated with adiabatic volume mean radius. Spectral dispersion after entrainment–mixing is negatively correlated with liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, turbulent dissipation rate and relative humidity of entrained air. Sensitivity analysis further suggests that number concentration is mainly determined by cloud microphysical properties whereas spectral dispersion is influenced by both cloud microphysical properties and environmental variables. The results indicate that the LGB scheme has the potential to enhance the representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning for fundamental spectroscopic and thermodynamic data of actinides and lanthanides

Accurately modeling optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities is vital for nuclear forensics applications that depend on characterizing optical emissions from energetic nuclear phenomena. This requires precise knowledge of the individual atomic transition probabilities, known as Einstein A-coefficients, for each emission line. Obtaining these values theoretically or experimentally is often impractical due to the complex electronic structures and the number of transitions involved in atoms relevant to nuclear applications. In this study, we explore the use of machine learning to predict the Einstein A coefficients for atomic transitions. Seven models were evaluated that ranged from deep learning to decision tree algorithms, and found that gradient boosting performed best, specifically the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) architecture, achieving a precision of 86% across transitions of 36 elements. Furthermore, the model was cross-validated using published transition probabilities reported in the literature and applied to estimate Pu plasma temperatures from a previous experiment conducted at Savannah River National Laboratory.

Atomic spectroscopy↗

Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.

CPH systems↗

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning for Well Log Analysis in Uranium Mining

This project explores the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques to automate well log analysis for uranium mining. Geophysical log data—spontaneous potential, resistivity, and gamma ray—were used to classify lithology, correlate well logs and identify roll front zonation patterns, which are critical for locating uranium ore bodies. Supervised ML algorithms such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and Random Forest were trained to classify lithology with high accuracy. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), XGBoost, Random Forest, and Neural Networks were also used for role front zone identification. Moreover, a Fast Dynamic Time Warping (FastDTW) algorithm was employed for well log correlation. Additionally, sample lag was addressed using dynamic programming. Results demonstrate the potential of AI and ML to streamline well log analysis and enhance uranium exploration workflows.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Prediction of Dielectric Constant in Series of Polymers by Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR)

This work is devoted to the investigation of dielectric permittivity which is influenced by electronic, ionic, and dipolar polarization mechanisms, contributing to the material’s capacity to store electrical energy. In this study, an extended dataset of 86 polymers was analyzed, and two quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were developed to predict dielectric permittivity. From an initial set of 1273 descriptors, the most relevant ones were selected using a genetic algorithm, and machine learning models were built using the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR). In contrast to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)- and Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based models, the gradient boosting models excel in handling nonlinear relationships and multicollinearity, iteratively optimizing decision trees to improve accuracy without overfitting. The developed GBR models showed high R2 coefficients of 0.938 and 0.822, for the training and test sets, respectively. An Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique was applied to assess the relationship between the selected descriptors—eight for the GB_A model and six for the GB_B model, and their impact on target property. ALE analysis revealed that descriptors such as TDB09m had a strong positive effect on permittivity, while MLOGP2 showed a negative effect. These results highlight the effectiveness of the GBR approach in predicting the dielectric properties of polymers, offering improved accuracy and interpretability.

Ascencio-Medina, Estefania↗

Machine Learning Analysis of Temperature-Strain Relationships for Structural Health Monitoring of Pipes: Self-powered wireless sensor system for health monitoring of liquid-sodium cooled fast reactors

This report presents machine learning (ML) analysis of temperature-strain relationships for structural health monitoring of nuclear reactor stainless steel (SS) pipes with the strain gauge sensor directly printed on the pipe with a 3D conformal aerosol jet printer. We investigate correlations for two sensor pairs installed on the same SS304 pipe: commercial K-type thermocouple with a printed gold strain gauge (TC3-SG3), and commercial K-type thermocouple with commercial Kyowa strain gauge (TC0-SG0). The temperature ranges for the sensor pairs TC0-SG0 and TC3-SG3 are 20.00°C to 266.37°C and 39.95°C to 219.28°C respectively. ML algorithms in this study include Linear Regression (baseline method), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Gradient Boosting. Performance evaluation metrics include Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R 2 Score, and Explained Variance. Using advanced feature engineering techniques, we extracted 27 temperature-based features and 30 strategic inclusion features. The best performance was obtained with the Gradient Boosting method, which achieves prediction accuracy of R 2 = 0.9999 and RMSE = 7.69 μStrain for TC0-SG0, and R 2 = 0.9998 and RMSE = 18.03 μStrain for TC3-SG3. While the temperature-strain correlations are weaker for the gauge directly printed on the pipe than for the commercial strain gauge, deployment-ready performance exceeding industry standards is achieved for both sensor pairs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ensemble methods for quantification of potassium oxide in ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra

In this paper we test new approaches for predicting the amount of element oxides in rock samples from the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover by focusing on K 2 O. Using the expanded dataset compiled by Gasda et al. (2021) with and without the Earth to Mars (E2M and NoE2M) transformation discussed in Clegg et al. (2017) we trained blended submodels using the “double blending” technique and compared these to ensemble methods (Random Forest, ExtraTrees, and Gradient Boosting Regression). We found that ensemble methods performed similar to blended submodels when looking at RMSE-P on the laboratory spectra and provided significant advantages when looking at spectra coming from Mars. For the full model, blended submodels achieved an RMSE-P of 0.62 and 0.60 (E2M and NoE2M respectively) while Gradient Boosting Regression resulted in a slightly improved RMSE-P of 0.59 and 0.60. More importantly, by employing a local RMSE-P estimation technique where model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples we found that using ensemble methods can lower the quantification limit for K 2 O from the current value of ≈0.6 wt% to ≈0.08 wt% using Extra Trees and Random Forest. This would allow for a much larger range of K 2 O values to be quantified on Mars with greater certainty given that most targets seen on Mars tend to have <1 wt% K2O. Finally, we used both Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) and permutation importance techniques to investigate the wavelengths used by the ensemble methods and found that they correspond to known potassium emission lines. This suggests that ensemble methods can provide an easier to train and improved alternative to blended submodels for predicting potassium compositions from Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine learning for seismic low-frequency extrapolation

The cycle-skipping problem that plagues full waveform inversion (FWI) can be at least partially mitigated if low frequencies (which encode the kinematics of wave propagation in seismic data) are recorded. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited, so seismic data does not generally include signals down to 0 Hz. To improve our ability to solve the seismic inverse problem, one can synthesize this missing low-frequency (LF) content from the recorded high-frequency (HF) data using machine learning (ML) models. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) demonstrate impressive ability to perform low frequency extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware (GPU machines) and careful training. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of three different ML models that do not require GPU machines, namely, random forest, Gaussian process regression and gradient boosting, on both synthetic and real data. Experimental results on two synthetic data sets (generated from a low velocity lens embedded in a homogeneous medium, and the Marmousi model) demonstrate that FWI applied to the extrapolated data consistently improves inversion accuracy relative to FWI applied to the original data sets that do not contain low frequencies. Application of low-frequency extrapolation to real data from the Northwest Shelf of Australia demonstrates that tree-based ML models such as gradient boosting can outperform CNNs in terms of both accuracy and computational cost on non-GPU architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Micro-structural features and material properties impact on adhesive metal joints via computational modeling and machine learning

The quality of structural bonding in practical applications depends on various factors arising from materials, pre-processing conditions, and manufacturing. Understanding how these factors influence bonding performance and determining their relative importance are of significant interest. Thus, this study evaluates the effects of microstructural features and material properties on the structural strength of adhesively-bonded metal joints at the submillimeter scale, utilizing a combination of Finite Element Modeling (FEM) and Machine Learning (ML) with Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR). The microstructural features include adhesive thickness, internal voids within the adhesive, adherend-adhesive interfacial voids, void size and volume fraction, and surface roughness. The material properties include the constitutive behavior of the adhesive, as well as the adherend-adhesive interfacial strength and fracture energy. The changes in structural strength and morphologies of the bonded metal structures with respect to different microstructural features and material properties were clarified by FEM. By further leveraging ML-GBR, the sequence of importance of these factors affecting bonding performance across various scenarios was summarized. This work provides valuable insights into the development of improved structural bonding for adhesive joints in industries such as automotive , aerospace, and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗