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Leveraging Hydropower Multi-Sensor Data for Inference and Age-Informed Modeling

Increased demand of operational flexibility such as faster ramp up/down in generation, and more frequent start/stops are putting hydropower plants and their associated components in unprecedented stress. Consequently, these plants are at the high risk of extended and more frequent outage to accommodate unscheduled, and unexpected maintenance. Therefore, hydropower plants are in critical need of data driven and age-informed analysis for their regular and unscheduled operation. Yet not all hydropower plants are exhaustively equipped with sensors and/or measurement streams for their respective components – demanding solutions on how to detect, identify, and locate the cause of any event from the unobservable. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) analyzed the anonymized measurements and event records from the Hydropower Research Institute (HRI) to address this issue, as part of the Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) funded one year multi-lab project. First, we investigated how time series of multiple sensor measurements can be leveraged to identify an event “root cause” as well as to develop an inference (i.e., estimate the unobservable) problem. INL also investigated how individual hydropower components’ reaction or response times vary across the pre-event, during event, and post-event conditions – enabling the hydropower dynamic models to be age-informed. Finally, the impact of clustering multi-sensor time series on short-term vibration prediction is analyzed. INL will present key findings from these analyses and recommend next steps for stakeholder adoption.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Deep Learning for Fish Identification from Sonar Data (CRADA 481 Final Report)

In eastern regions of the United States, the American eel is a species of management and regulatory concern because of significant population declines, despite the species’ previous abundance in all tributaries of rivers flowing into the Atlantic Ocean. The American eel is also a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. While hydropower construction and operation are only one of several factors contributing to this population decline, such a listing could impose additional regulatory challenges for a large number of hydropower projects. In this CRADA project, we improved technologies for identifying migrating eels with the goal of reducing the cost and time required for future American eel hydropower impact assessment and mitigation studies, while maintaining accuracy. We built on results from a previous FOA project (FOA# DE-FOA-0001662), led by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), which developed a highly accurate, deep-learning method for identifying migrating eels from imaging sonar data. The current study aimed to further optimize this deep-learning model, originally designed for image classification, and to develop an object detection software capable of identifying fish from sonar videos in real time, enabling the detection of events like fish migrations and specific species, such as the American eel, at hydropower dams. The data conversion algorithms were packaged as software with a graphical user interface, and the software is evaluated by external collaborators. We focused on the American eel in this project and explored the transferability of the developed deep learning models to the sea lamprey, given the similar body shape and swimming behavior between the two species.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Alaska Observed Hydropower Generation

This dataset contains compiled observed hydropower generation for hydropower plants in Alaska. Data have been compiled from data provided to the Energy Information Administration by asset owners, data contained in annual reports produced by the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage (Alaska Electric Power Statistics and Alaska Energy Statistics) and data provided to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by asset owners. This dataset provides available generation data from all sources in monthly and annual files, with quality flags, and generation data identifying the highest quality source in monthly and annual files.

hydropower datasets

Alaska Observed Hydropower Generation

This dataset contains compiled observed hydropower generation for hydropower plants in Alaska. Data have been compiled from data provided to the Energy Information Administration by asset owners, data contained in annual reports produced by the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage (Alaska Electric Power Statistics and Alaska Energy Statistics) and data provided to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by asset owners. This dataset provides available generation data from all sources in monthly and annual files, with quality flags, and generation data identifying the highest quality source in monthly and annual files.

Broman, Daniel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat

Assessment of Energy Technology Options for the Island of Molokai, Hawaii: Analysis of Floating Solar, Pumped Storage Hydropower, and Backup Energy Systems

This report documents analysis done by researchers at the National Laboratory of the Rockies and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the potential for and explore project concepts of electricity generation and storage additions on the island of Molokai, Hawaii, as identified in the Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP) by the Molokai Clean Energy Hui (MCEH), Sustainable Molokai, and the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI). These electricity generation and storage additions include distributed photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage, and generators for critical facilities on the island that can provide backup energy to the facilities during grid disruptions and outages, a floating PV (FPV) system on Kualapuu Reservoir, and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) systems scaled to act as a significant or primary source of energy storage on the Molokai grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Assessment of Energy Technology Options for the Island of Molokai, Hawaii: Analysis of Floating Solar, Pumped Storage Hydropower, and Backup Energy Systems [Slides]

This presentation summarizes analysis done by researchers at the National Laboratory of the Rockies and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the potential for and explore project concepts of electricity generation and storage additions on the island of Molokai, Hawaii, as identified in the Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP) by the Molokai Clean Energy Hui (MCEH), Sustainable Molokai, and the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI). These electricity generation and storage additions include distributed photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage, and generators for critical facilities on the island that can provide backup energy to the facilities during grid disruptions and outages, a floating PV (FPV) system on Kualapuu Reservoir, and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) systems scaled to act as a significant or primary source of energy storage on the Molokai grid. This presentation accompanies the full technical report published under the same title.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

ORNL National Hydropower Fish Passage Database

Fish passage facilities are used to mitigate impacts of hydropower dams to migratory fish in rivers, but information on the location, types, and characteristics of this infrastructure is incomplete at a national scale. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) partnered with fish passage engineers and hydropower experts from the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), and the Low Impact Hydropower Institute (LIHI) to create the first national scale database of fish passage infrastructure at US hydropower developments. This database consists of the ORNL_Fish_Passage_Dataset.zip file with 13 individual .csv files that contain information on fish passage facility engineering characteristics, targeted fish species, operational schedule, and costs. which is of great value to a diverse range of stakeholders. This information was collected between December 2023 and July 2025 from project partners, other hydropower stakeholders, online datasets available for download, and a stakeholder questionnaire Information. This data resource addresses a large gap in knowledge of the deployment of fish passage technology and is freely available to members of the hydropower community, including federal and state regulators and resource agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), industry, and other user groups to support project planning and regulatory (re)licensing activities. This database supports the US Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office objective to develop decision support tools and data resources that improve environmental performance and ensure hydropower’s long-term value to the American public.

Matson, Paul [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

Repository of HydroSMADE: Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites

This repository presents HydroSMADE—Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble, a new open dataset that provides monthly hydropower availability for 1,593 existing and 124,333 potential sites worldwide over the period 1950–2100. The dataset is generated by using a global hydrologic model (Xanthos) with explicit representation of hydropower operation. Specifically, HydroSMADE distinguishes between storage and diversion sites, applies optimized operating rules, and incorporates site-specific characteristics such as generation capacity, maximum turbine flow, and reservoir storage. Driven by bias-corrected meteorological inputs, the data is provided for 30 alternative future scenarios. The scenarios consist of the full factorial combination of three standard CMIP6 atmospheric forcing pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and ten CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3, CanESM5, MIROC6, CNRM-ESM2-1, UKESM1-0-LL, and CNRM-CM6-1. The repository contains a total of 122 files: a text file (readme.txt) containing a brief description of the included data, a CSV file containing site attributes, and the remaining 120 files (in CSV) containing site-level monthly hydropower availability. Example Jupyter Notebooks to explore the HydroSMADE dataset are available on GitHub at https://github.com/kamal0013/HydroSMADE More details on the methods and technical validation of HydroSMADE are available in the following paper by the same authors: Chowdhury, A. K., Abeshu, G. W., Zhao, M., Wild, T. B., Hassan, N., Ying, Z., Kim, G. J., Matthew, B., Jonathan, L., & Li, H.-Y. (Submitted). Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites.

Existing and Potential Sites

Environmental DNA as a tool for hydropower impact assessments: current status, special considerations, and future integration

Globally there is an urgent need to find sustainable solutions to balance energy production with the protection of vulnerable species and conservation of biodiversity. This is particularly critical for freshwater ecosystems, habitats, and species that may be impacted by hydropower development and operations needed to meet energy grid demands. Reliable and accurate environmental impact assessments (EIAs) that identify the biological, physical, or social impacts of hydropower are key to ensure biodiversity, ecosystem, and societal sustainability. The analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to transform hydropower EIAs, management and mitigation planning, and decision-making procedures. Further, the incorporation of eDNA surveys into EIAs during both hydropower planning and continued operations may streamline regulatory processes by improving our understanding of potentially impacted biota and habitats and evaluating environmental impacts mitigation. Here, we: (i) highlight current understanding and use of eDNA in freshwater environments; (ii) examine critical considerations for eDNA integration into hydropower EIAs and biological monitoring; (iii) identify knowledge gaps in eDNA analysis and applications unique to hydropower-regulated systems; and (iv) discuss future opportunities to bolster the incorporation of eDNA into hydropower research including regulatory acceptance and public engagement. While we acknowledge that there are several factors that may complicate the broad adoption of eDNA as a tool for assessing the impacts of hydropower, we anticipate that growing confidence in eDNA through hydropower-specific protocols, calibrations, and validations will overcome these inherent uncertainties.

aquatic biodiversity

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Furthering Advancements to Shorten the Time (FAST) to Commissioning for Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) Prize: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory initiated a Prize with support from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office (DOE WPTO) to encourage ideas to reduce the time to commissioning for PSH projects. As a result, nine finalists have been chosen to develop their concepts in advance of the FAST Prize Pitch Contest to be held on October 7, 2019. The National Labs will provide technical and business advisement to the noted FAST Prize finalists in preparation for this Pitch Contest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

Advanced Microstructured BaTiO 3 -Embedded PVDF–HFP/PEO Film for Enhanced Triboelectric Interface in Self-Sufficient Energy Generation and Sensing

The global reliance on fossil fuels and natural gas has largely dominated the energy production field, but due to finite resource depletion and escalating greenhouse gas emissions, the immediate exploration of sustainable energy alternatives to mitigate climate change and ensure resource security has been a major concern. There has been extensive research into other more renewable methods of energy production, such as wind and hydropower. Of these current energy generation types, there are many areas of untapped potential from the mechanical movements generated ambiently not only in the large scale of power generation but also on a smaller scale. The piezoelectric and triboelectric effects are phenomena where these ambient mechanical movements can generate electrical energy. Developing a hybrid system that leverages both mechanical stress and surface charges presents an ideal opportunity to exploit these untapped energy sources. Producing a hybrid PVDF–HFP/PEO film with perovskite BaTiO 3 (BTO) enables ambient power harvesting from both mechanical movement and surface charge. The optimized cell produced a potential of up to 15 V and a current of 200 nA with a 68 kΩ resistor, a substantial increase from a base system with an average of 2.1 V and 40 nA. These hybrid TENGs offer significant potential for energy harvesting in small-scale applications, such as health monitoring devices and indicators in electric circuits.

Ybarra, Rigobert [University of Texas Rio Grande V