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DOE OSTI2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Numerical Simulation of Reservoir Response to Depressurization

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Boswell, Ray↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric ice nuclei concentration measurements over a high altitude-station in the Western Ghats, India

Mixed-phase and ice clouds play a significant role in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and modeling studies suggest that inaccurate representation of ice nucleating particles (INP) is one of the factors, which have resulted in a deficiency in the prediction of cloud properties and hydrological cycle. We do not understand the ice nucleation mechanisms to represent the ice formation in the model, and therefore more INP measurements at various supercooled temperatures are needed. This study reports for the first time real-time INP concentration at a high altitude station in the Western Ghats region of India, and these results will be used to constrain the ice nucleation parameterizations in the model. The variation of INP for any particular cloud condition can have strong microphysical responses of mixed-phase precipitation formation processes. Also, to improve the representation of heterogeneous ice nucleation, INP measurements of various types of aerosols commonly observed over the Indian region are needed. This study presents, the INP concentrations and daily concentration of non-refractory chemical composition (organics, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and aerosol size distribution. Spectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) was operated to measure INP concentration at the mountain site from August to December 2018. INP measurements were performed at three different temperatures (-25, -30, and - 34 °C) in the immersion freezing mode relevant for mixed-phase cloud conditions. The average INP concentrations approximately varied from 0.18 to 12.4 L-1, 0.39 to 24 L-1, 1.1 to 40.2 L-1 at -25, -30, and - 34 °C, respectively. These concentrations are within the concentrations reported in the literature from different regions across the globe. The air mass back trajectory analysis showed that continental air mass contains more INP compared to maritime air mass. The information on INP concentration and chemical characteristics of aerosol will help to improve heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models.

Kumar, Anil V.↗

DOE OSTI2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India

Collett, Tim↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impact of water access on short-term migration in rural India

Not provided.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2019

Multi-measurement approach for establishing the base of gas hydrate occurrence in the Krishna-Godavari Basin for sites cored during expedition NGHP-02 in the offshore of India

Not provided.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2018

Cross-Border Electricity Trade between India and Sri Lanka: Impact on Power System Operations

Recent developments in South Asia have the potential to increase the incentives for cross-border energy trade (CBET) between India and Sri Lanka. India's surplus power, including from its rapid expansion of wind and solar generation, provides an incentive for it to increase investment returns through exports. Sri Lanka is considering options to increase its power supply, and CBET could alleviate the need for investments in new thermal generation capacity, while giving it access to India's large and diverse power system. Finally, CBET can facilitate renewable energy (RE) integration by allowing the two countries to more efficiently harness balancing resources and smooth out wind and solar variability over larger geographic areas. This study builds on several prior analyses of a potential high-voltage direct current transmission link between India and Sri Lanka. Uniquely, the study makes use of a detailed one-year, 30-minute resolution unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model of both countries to examine the technical and economic impacts of CBET between India and Sri Lanka in the year 2025. The study finds that CBET, enabled by a 500-MW high voltage direct current transmission link, could generate annual production cost savings of USD 180 million and improve power system operations. Through better utilization of the most efficient generators, generation from relatively expensive natural gas plants in Sri Lanka is displaced by lower cost imports from India. In addition, increased flexibility through exports reduces RE curtailment in India's Southern region by 400 GWh annually. While the study captures many previously unconsidered intertemporal operational constraints, it does not provide a complete characterization of system operations with a high-voltage direct current interconnection. Additional work should include a dynamic analysis of system stability following interruptions to the direct current interconnection, an AC power flow analysis and consideration of any non-technical barriers to trade which might prevent the optimization of CBET between India and Sri Lanka at 30-minute timescales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India

As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon emissions from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the newest decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the annual operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (–87.7 in China and – 130.2 kg of carbon dioxide (kgCO 2 ) per household in India) and appliances (~ –169.7 in China and ~ –43.4 kgCO 2 per household in India). (3) China and India collectively decarbonized 1498.3 and 399.7 M-tons of CO 2 in residential building operations, respectively. In terms of decarbonization intensity, India (164.8 kgCO 2 per household) nearly caught up with China (182.5 kgCO 2 per household) in 2020 and is expected to surpass China in the upcoming years, given the country's robust annual growth rate of 7.3%. Overall, this study provides an effective data-driven tool for investigating the building decarbonization potential in China and India, and offers valuable insights for other emerging economies seeking to decarbonize residential buildings in the forthcoming COP28 1 age.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model

India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

India 2030 Wind and Solar Integration Study (Interim Report)

India has established several targets for renewable energy capacity growth in the coming years, most notably the target of deploying 175 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity from wind, solar, biomass, and small hydropower by 2022, and furthering that vision with India's Nationally Determined Contribution target of 40% renewable electricity capacity (including hydro) by 2030 (GOI 2015). Given the rapid and significant changes to India's power system to help meet these targets, the objective of this interim report is to understand the operational challenges for India's power grid in 2030. The primary contribution of this report is to establish a 2030 unit commitment and dispatch model of India's grid, with hourly temporal resolution, high spatial resolution of renewable energy resources, interstate transmission constraints, and unit-level generator characteristics. Annual simulations of 2030 operations demonstrate that a 22% annual penetration of wind and solar is manageable by India's grid. Most days in the year do not show signs of stress, and 99.97% of energy is served with the plans as presented. Average coal plant load factors are 70% for the year, up from relatively low plant load factors in recent years (Patel 2018). However, the results highlight specific challenges the grid may face during a small number of high-demand periods, resulting in unserved energy. The drivers behind the unserved energy suggest that this could be avoided with better coordination in scheduling. This report is part of a broader set of analyses under the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), which includes collaborations with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), and a broad stakeholder community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Security Governance in India: Institutions, Instruments, and Culture (2019)

There is an emerging consciousness in India of the importance of nuclear security and safety. Motivated by a combination of rapid growth in its civil nuclear sector, heightened scrutiny of recent nuclear accidents around the world, and the deteriorating regional security environment, India has pushed to adopt measures to strengthen and enhance its nuclear security and safety governance structures. India recognizes that the various recent global nuclear security initiatives are in its own best interest and has been an enthusiastic participant in the Nuclear Security Summit process. Today, India demonstrates a greater willingness to showcase its nuclear security arrangements before the public and has undertaken many institutional, legal, and operational reforms to maintain international regime compliance. This study takes a comprehensive look at India's approach to nuclear security and critically examines the physical security measures the country has put in place. Particular focus is placed on the evolution and strengths, as well as weaknesses, of the country's nuclear security institutions, instruments, practices, and culture. Given that the strengthening of India's nuclear security governance is an ongoing endeavor, the paper also puts forward a number of policy recommendations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Biomass to bio-energy supply chain: Economic viability, case studies, challenges and policy implications in India

Biomass supply chain (BSC) management is an integral part of renewable energy projects, which include biomass-harvesting, collection, storage, processing and transportation to the bio-energy plants. The sustainability concept identifies economy, environment, and society as the three principal pillars of bioenergy. With an effective BSC implemented, all three dimensions of sustainability can be attained. Although, there’s been extensive research on the environmental sustainability of BSC, the economic aspects are under-represented in existing literature. So, an elaborate analysis on the economic viability of BSCs developed worldwide and those in India is critical, and needs to be studied. This review conducts a detailed accounting of the economic aspects of a BSC which includes the existing challenges in designing an environmental-cum-economically efficient BSC and strategies to address the issues. The Indian context has been studied on the BSC models, highlighting their shortcomings, while encapsulating the essential insights from global BSC models for a cost-effective BSC-to-bioenergy in India. Here, this review also emphasizes the policies supporting the BSC in India and forecasts the future biomass demand and supply. This review will provide stakeholders with critical insights on BSC and related challenges and assist them to investigate and devise strategies for successful implementation of BSCs in India.

Biomass↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling India’s energy future using a bottom-up approach

India and China are the world's most populous nations, but they have experienced a very different pattern of economic development. As a result, India currently contributes less than one-quarter of the amount of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, India's forecasted economic growth suggests that those emissions will almost quadruple, with much of this rise coming from the industry sector. Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming suggest that direct CO2 emissions should decrease significantly, but leave unanswered the question of how this can be achieved by real-world policies. This study describes a bottom-up model that can be used to assess the impacts of emissions mitigation policies and the linkages between the physical drivers and energy growth of India's key industries. It focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of this growth, to identify and prioritize the subsectors to address and develop sustainable, low carbon pathways to support economic growth. This analysis shows that India can achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) while achieving substantial economic growth using its currently planned policies. The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions that are needed by policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions and provide a baseline scenario in the case of no major new technology breakthroughs and no new adopted policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗

DOE OSTI2021

Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment

To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e. a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate—(i) what might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? (ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? (iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are—(i) NZ (net-zero), (ii) NZ + ETS, (iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and (iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii) and (iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors—electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but does not allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: (i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; (ii) ETS with trading across sectors is around 24% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, (iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and (iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Initial Thermal Energy Yield Potential for the Use of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) for Coal Hybridization in India

The hybridization of concentrating solar power (CSP) with coal-based power generation in India may serve to mitigate fossil fuel use externalities. Assuming parabolic trough systems without storage, this report estimates the upper bound on thermal energy production from India's solar resource to be 633,000 terawatt-thermal (TW th ) annually. Moreover, considering land characteristic constraints, contiguous solar fields (SF) area limitations, and existing coal plant proximity, we produce technical potential estimates. Within 1,000 meters (m) of suitable coal plants, we find the average capacity factor to be 21.1% and the potential for 102,555 gigawatt-hours thermal (GWh th ) aggregated from 25 megawatt thermal (MW th ) CSP SFs. Only about 10% of the land within 1,000 m of each existing coal plant is anticipated to be suitable for hybridization development, and on average this land is expected to support a 43 MW th SF that yields 81 GWh th annually. Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu are particularly suited to CSP-coal hybridization and the abundance of suitable land in these states would allow SFs to provide 129 GWh th annually to each coal plant on average. Future research will assess the financial viability of hybridization and explore coal plant optimization strategies that integrate CSP-derived heat (e.g. feedwater heating or potentially coal drying).This study shows significant CSP-coal hybridisation potential for the existing coal plants in India. This preliminary study suggests CSP-coal hybridization may play a supporting role in India's energy system, but it's future is still largely uncertain. This is an area of considerable interest in India, and the methodology could also be adapted for other areas of the world like the United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗