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At least 19 records

Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Asteroid

Suborbital Asteroid Intercept and Fragmentation for Very Short Warning Time Scenarios

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) 50150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. However, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt).We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a fictitious incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally, at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances.Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEOwould strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total V 9.511 kms) could intercept incoming NEOs over a day prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of NEO intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Planetary Defense

A description of rainfall interception over large areas

A new scheme is developed for describing interception at spatial scales comparable to the typical resolution of climate models. The scheme is based on the Rutter model of interception and statistical description of the subgrid-scale spatial variability of canopy storage and rainfall. The interception loss simulated by the new scheme is significantly smaller than those simulated by other schemes that do not include considerations for spatial variability. The explanation of this result is partly in the enhancement of spatially averaged canopy drainage due to the large local drainage from the few buckets of large canopy storage. The relative reduction in interception loss simulated by the new scheme may explain the overestimation of interception loss by climate models that do not include the effects of spatial variability on interception processes.

Eltahir, E. A. B.

Mission Design and Analysis for Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) approximately 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total delta V of approximately 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

near- Earth object

Computation of optimal feedback strategies for interception in a horizontal plane

The problem of minimum-time interception of a target moving in a horizontal plane is studied. The target may fly a trajectory that is known at the start of the interception or try to evade the intercepting aircraft. The interceptor's optimal motion is described independently of the target in terms of an extremal trajectory map. The latter is used to develop guidelines for suboptimal approximations to the extremals. A method of constructing the feedback solution by drawing isochrones (constant minimum-time loci) is developed. Sections of the feedback solution for the interception of a straight-flying target are presented, and the construction of an isochrone for the interception of an actively evading target is demonstrated.

Rajan, N.

Intercepted photosynthetically active radiation in wheat canopies estimated by spectral reflectance

The interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was evaluated relative to greenness and normalized difference (MSS 7-5/7+5) for five planting dates of wheat for 1978-79 and 1979-80 in Phoenix. Intercepted PAR was calculated from a model driven by leaf area index and stage of growth. Linear relationships were found between greenness and normalized difference with a separate model representing growth and senescence of the crop. Normalized difference was a significantly better model and would be easier to apply than the empirically derived greenness parameter. For the leaf area growth portion of the season the model between PAR interception and normalized difference was the same over years, however, for the leaf senescence the models showed more variability due to the lack of data on measured interception in sparse canopies. Normalized difference could be used to estimate PAR interception directly for crop growth models.

Hatfield, J. L.

Intercepted photosynthetically active radiation estimated by spectral reflectance

Interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was evaluated relative to greenness and normalized difference (MSS (7-5)/(7+5) for five planting dates of wheat for 1978-79 and 1979-80 at Phoenix, Arizona. Intercepted PAR was calculated from leaf area index and stage of growth. Linear relatinships were found with greeness and normalized difference with separate relatinships describing growth and senescence of the crop. Normalized difference was significantly better than greenness for all planting dates. For the leaf area growth portion of the season the relation between PAR interception and normalized difference was the same over years and planting dates. For the leaf senescence phase the relationships showed more variability due to the lack of data on light interception in sparse and senescing canopies. Normalized difference could be used to estimate PAR interception throughout a growing season.

Hatfield, J. L.

An Efficient Ray-Tracing Method for Determining Terrain Intercepts in EDL Simulations

The calculation of a ray's intercept from an arbitrary point in space to a prescribed surface is a common task in computer simulations. The arbitrary point often represents an object that is moving according to the simulation, while the prescribed surface is fixed in a defined frame. For detailed simulations, this surface becomes complex, taking the form of real-world objects such as mountains, craters or valleys which require more advanced methods to accurately calculate a ray's intercept location. Incorporation of these complex surfaces has commonly been implemented in graphics systems that utilize highly optimized graphics processing units to analyze such features. This paper proposes a simplified method that does not require computationally intensive graphics solutions, but rather an optimized ray-tracing method for an assumed terrain dataset. This approach was developed for the Mars Science Laboratory mission which landed on the complex terrain of Gale Crater. First, this paper begins with a discussion of the simulation used to implement the model and the applicability of finding surface intercepts with respect to atmosphere modeling, altitude determination, radar modeling, and contact forces influencing vehicle dynamics. Next, the derivation and assumptions of the intercept finding method are presented. Key assumptions are noted making the routines specific to only certain types of surface data sets that are equidistantly spaced in longitude and latitude. The derivation of the method relies on ray-tracing, requiring discussion on the formulation of the ray with respect to the terrain datasets. Further discussion includes techniques for ray initialization in order to optimize the intercept search. Then, the model implementation for various new applications in the simulation are demonstrated. Finally, a validation of the accuracy is presented along with the corresponding data sets used in the validation. A performance summary of the method will be shown using the analysis from the Mars Science Laboratory's terminal descent sensing model. Alternate uses will also be shown for determining horizon maps and orbiter set times.

Shidner, Jeremy D.

Calibrated intercepts for solar radiometers used in remote sensor calibration

Calibrated solar radiometer intercepts allow spectral optical depths to be determined for days with intermittently clear skies. This is of particular importance on satellite sensor calibration days that are cloudy except at the time of image acquisition. This paper describes the calibration of four solar radiometers using the Langley-Bouguer technique for data collected on days with a clear, stable atmosphere. Intercepts are determined with an uncertainty of less than six percent, corresponding to a maximum uncertainty of 0.06 in optical depth. The spread of voltage intercepts calculated in this process is carried through three methods of radiometric calibration of satellite sensors to yield an uncertainty in radiance at the top of the atmosphere of less than one percent associated with the uncertainty in solar radiometer intercepts for a range of ground reflectances.

Gellman, David I.

Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies

Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.

Bauer, M. E.

Barriers and dispersal surfaces in minimum-time interception

A method is proposed for mapping the barrier, dispersal, and control-level surfaces for a class of minimum-time interception and pursuit-evasion problems. Minimum-time interception of a target moving in a horizontal plane is formulated in a coordinate system whose origin is at the interceptor's terminal position and whose x-axis is along the terminal line of sight. This approach makes it possible to discuss the nature of the interceptor's extremals, using its extremal trajectory maps (ETMs), independently of target motion. The game surfaces are constructed by drawing sections of the isochrones, or constant minimum-time loci, from the interceptor and target ETMs. In this way, feedback solutions for the optimal controls are obtained. An example involving the interception of a target moving in a straight line at constant speed is presented.

Rajan, N.

Light interception and leaf area estimates from measurements of grass canopy reflectance

Grassland is a major component of the earth's available land. The vast area and remoteness of this ecosystem makes it difficult to assess its condition and monitor productivity by traditional methods. Remote sensing potentially offers a rapid nondestructive approach for monitoring such ecosystems. A study was carried out in a tallgrass prairie site near Manhattan, Kansas, during the 1983 and 1984 seasons to investigate the feasibility of estimating light interception and green leaf area index (LAI) from measurements of canopy multispectral reflectance. Greenness (Gn) index was found to be strongly correlated with intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Two methods, a direct regression (RGR) and an indirect approach (IND), were used to estimate LAI from Gn index. The LAI values estimated by RGR method were consistently lower than the measured ones; however, good agreement was obtained between the LAI values estimated by IND method and the measured LAI. This suggests that Gn transformation of canopy spectral reflectance is more closely related to the fraction of intercepted PAR by green foliage than the quantity of green LAI.

Asrar, G.

Comet Intercept Study

STL (Space Technology Laboratories, Inc.) has been studying, during the past year, the problems of carrying out a comet intercept mission. During the course of this study, the properties of 31 short-term comets have been examined to determine the feasibility of a mission to any of them during the next 15 years. In the process of selecting these comets, injection energies for each of these comets at a suitable launch period were determined. In addition, the distance of the earth at intercept, the transit and flight times, and the guidance requirements were evaluated. Also, to determine the effectiveness of such a mission, possible scientific instruments which could be used to measure the various characteristics of the comets have been studied. Finally, to determine the present feasibility of such a mission, the payload capability of available boosters was examined, and a spacecraft configuration with appropriate subsystems was also studied.

INTERCEPTION

Tree Canopy Light Interception Estimates in Almond and a Walnut Orchards Using Ground, Low Flying Aircraft, and Satellite Based Methods to Improve Irrigation Scheduling Programs

Canopy light interception is a main driver of water use and crop yield in almond and walnut production. Fractional green canopy cover (Fc) is a good indicator of light interception and can be estimated remotely from satellite using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Satellite-based Fc estimates could be used to inform crop evapotranspiration models, and hence support improvements in irrigation evaluation and management capabilities. Satellite estimates of Fc in almond and walnut orchards, however, need to be verified before incorporating them into irrigation scheduling or other crop water management programs. In this study, Landsat-based NDVI and Fc from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) were compared with four estimates of canopy cover: 1. light bar measurement, 2. in-situ and image-based dimensional tree-crown analyses, 3. high-resolution NDVI data from low flying aircraft, and 4. orchard photos obtained via Google Earth and processed by an Image J thresholding routine. Correlations between the various estimates are discussed.

Satellite

A singular perturbation analysis of minimum time long range intercept

The application of singular perturbation theory for deriving algorithms suitable for on board real time computation of optimal aircraft trajectory control was investigated. Minimum time intercept in three dimensions was selected as a pilot problem formulation, and data for an early version F-4 aircraft was used to represent aircraft aerodynamic and propulsion characteristics. Results include the derivation of nonlinear, near optimal feedback control laws that are readily implementable in an aircraft flight computer, performance results for a variety of initial conditions (including optimal intercept at short ranges), and a point mass three dimensional simulation suitable for representing fighter aircraft under closed loop optimal control.

Calise, A.

A spacecraft attitude and articulation control system design for the Comet Halley intercept mission

An attitude and articulation control system design for the Comet Halley 1986 intercept mission is presented. A spacecraft dynamics model consisting of five hinge-connected rigid bodies is used to analyze the spacecraft attitude and articulation control system performance. Inertial and optical information are combined to generate scan platform pointing commands. The comprehensive spacecraft model has been developed into a digital computer simulation program, which provides performance characteristics and insight pertaining to the control and dynamics of a Halley Intercept spacecraft. It is shown that scan platform pointing error has a maximum value of 1.8 milliradians during the four minute closest approach interval. It is also shown that the jitter or scan platform pointing rate error would have a maximum value of 2.5 milliradians/second for the nominal 1000 km closest approach distance trajectory and associated environment model.

Key, R. W.

Barriers and dispersal surfaces in minimum-time interception

Minimum time interception of a target moving in a horizontal plane is analyzed as a one-player differential game. Dispersal points and points on the barrier are located for a class of pursuit evasion and interception problems. These points are determined by constructing cross sections of the isochrones and hence obtaining the barrier, dispersal, and control level surfaces. The game solution maps the controls as a function of the state within the capture region.

Rajan, N.