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DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Geometric and Loading Imperfections on the Response and Lower-Bound Buckling Load of a Compression-Loaded Cylindrical Shell

Results from a numerical study of the buckling response of a thin-walled compressionloaded isotropic circular cylindrical shell with initial geometric and loading imperfections are used to determine a lower bound buckling load estimate suitable for preliminary design. The lower bound prediction techniques presented herein include an imperfection caused by a lateral perturbation load, an imperfection in the shape of a single stress-free dimple (similar to the lateral pertubation imperfection), and a distributed load imperfection that induces a nonuniform load in the shell. The ABAQUS finite element code is used for the analyses. Responses of the cylinders for selected imperfection amplitudes and imperfection types are considered, and the effect of each imperfection is compared to the response of a geometrically perfect cylinder. The results indicate that compression-loaded shells subjected to a lateral perturbation load or a single dimple imperfection, and a nonuniform load imperfection, exhibit similar buckling behavior and lower bound trends and the predicted lower bounds are much less conservative than the corresponding design recommendation NASA SP-8007 for the design of buckling-critical shells. In addition, the lateral perturbation technique and the distributed load imperfection produce response characteristics that are physically meaningful and can be validated via laboratory testing.

Kriegesmann, Benedikt↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low-load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the bridge sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗

DOE OSTI2023

An ICA-Based HVAC Load Disaggregation Method Using Smart Meter Data

This paper presents an independent component analysis (ICA) based unsupervised-learning method for heat, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load disaggregation using row-resolution (i.e., 15 minutes) smart meter data. We first demonstrate that the electricity consumption profiles on mild-temperature days can be used to approximate the base load on hot days. A residual load profile can then be calculated by subtracting the mild-day load profile from the hot-day load profile. The residual load profiles are processed using ICA for HVAC load extraction. An optimization-based algorithm is proposed for post-adjustment of the ICA results, considering two bounding factors for enhancing the robustness of the ICA algorithm. First, we use the hourly HVAC energy bounds computed from the relationship between HVAC load and temperature to remove unrealistic HVAC load spikes. Second, we exploit the dependency between the daily nocturnal and diurnal loads extracted from historical meter data to smooth the base load profile. Pecan Street data with sub-metered HVAC data were used to test and verify the proposed methods. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method is computationally efficient and robust across multiple customers.

Kim, Hyeonjin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low- load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the gage sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗

NASA NTRS2011

Use of Flexible Body Coupled Loads in Assessment of Day of Launch Flight Loads

A Day of Launch flight loads assessment technique that determines running loads calculated from flexible body coupled loads was developed for the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle. The technique was developed to quantify DOL flight loads in terms of structural load components rather than the typically used q-alpha metric to provide more insight into the DOL loads. In this technique, running loads in the primary structure are determined from the combination of quasi-static aerodynamic loads and dynamic loads. The aerodynamic loads are calculated as a function of time using trajectory parameters passed from the DOL trajectory simulation and are combined with precalculated dynamic loads using a load combination equation. The potential change in aerodynamic load due to wind variability during the countdown is included in the load combination. In the event of a load limit exceedance, the technique allows the identification of what load component is exceeded, a quantification of how much the load limit is exceeded, and where on the vehicle the exceedance occurs. This technique was used to clear the Ares I-X FTV for launch on October 28, 2009. This paper describes the use of coupled loads in the Ares I-X flight loads assessment and summarizes the Ares I-X load assessment results.

Starr, Brett R.↗

NASA NTRS2025

Mechanics of Preloaded Bolt Tensile Loading With Focus on Load Introduction Factor

The bolt tensile and joint separation loads are directly influenced by the locations at which the external loads enter the clamped members of a preloaded bolted joint (PBJ) and the associated load-paths through the joint. This physical load introduction mechanism affecting the bolt tensile loading is typically represented in the bolt tensile load equation, in part, by a load introduction factor (LIF), which was shown by H.M. Lee of Marshall Spaceflight Center to be a natural product of the bolt tensile load equation using a linear spring stiffness model. This LIF, being a function of load-path stiffness, has subsequently been denoted as the stiffness-based LIF (SBLIF), providing a framework to calculate the LIF using whatever load-path stiffness approximations are appropriate. Expanding upon the work of Lee, it is shown that the SBLIF and the joint stiffness factor are functions of the stiffnesses of the same load-paths and regions within a PBJ, and thus they should not be treated as independent variables. Mathematical expressions for the SBLIF are presented. Comparisons are shown between the analytically calculated SBLIF, the analytically calculated geometric LIF (GLIF), which is a simple clamped-member thickness ratio, the experimentally derived LIF, and the LIF determined by finite element analysis (FEA). Using experiment and FEA as a benchmark, the SBLIF, using traditional load-path stiffness approximations, enables a more accurate prediction of bolt tensile loading than the GLIF, although it can be unconservative near joint separation. The GLIF generally attributes more of the externally applied tensile load to the bolt than does the SBLIF, potentially resulting in heavier and/or more costly bolted joints. Mathematical relationships between the SBLIF and the GLIF are developed. Supplemental material is provided in the appendixes where the historical practice of using the joint compressive stiffness in place of the joint tensile stiffness is evaluated. The appendixes include step-by-step examples demonstrating the calculation of the SBLIF using traditional stiffness approximations and conclude with the development of the joint diagram in terms of the SBLIF, culminating into formulas for the key features of a joint diagram, which is useful for programming.

Load Path↗

NASA NTRS2014

Detection of Unexpected High Correlations between Balance Calibration Loads and Load Residuals

An algorithm was developed for the assessment of strain-gage balance calibration data that makes it possible to systematically investigate potential sources of unexpected high correlations between calibration load residuals and applied calibration loads. The algorithm investigates correlations on a load series by load series basis. The linear correlation coefficient is used to quantify the correlations. It is computed for all possible pairs of calibration load residuals and applied calibration loads that can be constructed for the given balance calibration data set. An unexpected high correlation between a load residual and a load is detected if three conditions are met: (i) the absolute value of the correlation coefficient of a residual/load pair exceeds 0.95; (ii) the maximum of the absolute values of the residuals of a load series exceeds 0.25 % of the load capacity; (iii) the load component of the load series is intentionally applied. Data from a baseline calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the detection algorithm to a real-world data set. This analysis also showed that the detection algorithm can identify load alignment errors as long as repeat load series are contained in the balance calibration data set that do not suffer from load alignment problems.

strain-gage balance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Distribution of SLS Integrated Load Uncertainty to Surface Pressures and Sectional Loads

Aerodynamic loads that are important to launch vehicle programs such as NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) include both integrated loads such as the force & moment on the entire vehicle and distributed loads. In this work two examples of distributed loads are considered: the pressure field on the surface of the vehicle and sectional loads, which are one-dimensional distributions along the axis of the launch vehicle. In some modern flight programs, the integrated loads, such as lift and drag, used to design the guidance and control laws for the vehicle come from wind tunnel testing, while distributed loads are produced using Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD). The first task that is addressed in this paper, then, is to provide a formal method to adjust the distributed loads so that integrating them matches the prescribed integrated load. In addition, the integrated loads in a launch vehicle typically include an uncertainty estimate. The second task is to distribute this prescribed integrated uncertainty to each point in a distributed load. Both tasks are addressed using the same technique, which is to create distributed load profiles that isolate adjustments to one integrated load while leaving the others unaffected. These adjustments are informed by Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of the entire CFD-based distributed load database. Once applied, the adjusted distributed loads can be used to evaluate any scalar quantity of interest that might be needed by downstream users such as structural analysis or trajectory modelers.

SLS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new database of building-space-specific internal loads and load schedules for performance based code compliance modeling of commercial buildings

Building-level loads and load profiles prescribed by current modeling rules save modelers time and avoid gaming during whole building performance modeling. However, recent studies show that they sometimes insufficiently capture the entire building performance due to the varied loads and load profiles for different space types. As a solution to this issue, this paper develops a database of building-space-specific loads and load profiles used in code compliance modeling. The existing sets of loads and load profiles are reviewed and the challenges behind using them for specific research topics are discussed. Then, the proposed method to develop the building-space-specific loads and load profiles is introduced. After that, the database for these building-space-specific loads and load profiles is presented. In addition, one case is studied to demonstrate the applications of these loads and load profiles. In this case study, three methods are used to develop building energy models: space-specific (using knowledge of the distribution and location of space types and applying the space-specific data in the developed database), building-level (assuming a lack of knowledge of the space types and using the building-level data in the developed database), and calculated-ratio (assuming knowledge of the distribution of space types but not their locations and calculating weighted average values based on the space-specific data in the developed database). Finally, the energy results simulated by using these three methods are compared, which show building-level methods can produce energy results up to 20% different than the space-specific methods. Finally, this paper discusses the application scope and maintenance of this new database.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1995

Load measurement system with load cell lock-out mechanism

In the frame work of the project Shuttle Plume Impingement Flight Experiment (SPIFEX), a Load Measurement System was developed and fabricated to measure the impingement force of Shuttle Reaction Control System (RCS) jets. The Load Measurement System is a force sensing system that measures any combination of normal and shear forces up to 40 N (9 lbf) in the normal direction and 22 N (5 lbf) in the shear direction with an accuracy of +/- 0.04 N (+/- 0.01 lbf) Since high resolution is required for the force measurement, the Load Measurement System is built with highly sensitive load cells. To protect these fragile load cells in the non-operational mode from being damaged due to flight loads such as launch and landing loads of the Shuttle vehicle, a motor driven device known as the Load Cell Lock-Out Mechanism was built. This Lock-Out Mechanism isolates the load cells from flight loads and re-engages the load cells for the force measurement experiment once in space. With this highly effective protection system, the SPIFEX load measurement experiment was successfully conducted on STS-44 in September 1994 with all load cells operating properly and reading impingement forces as expected.

Le, Thang↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Hybrid Classification-Regression Solution for High-Frequency Nonintrusive Load Monitoring

Residential buildings with the ability to monitor and control their net-load (sum of load and generation) can provide valuable flexibility to power grid operators. We present a novel multiclass nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) approach that enables effective net-load monitoring capabilities at high-frequency with minimal additional equipment and cost. The proposed machine learning based solution provides accurate multiclass state predictions while operating at a faster timescale (able to provide a prediction for each 60- Hz ac cycle used in US power grid) without relying on event-detection techniques. We also introduce an innovative hybrid classification-regression method that allows for the prediction of not only load on/off states but also individual load operating power levels. A test bed with eight residential appliances is used for validating the NILM approach. Results show that the overall method has high accuracy, good scaling and generalization properties.

feature extraction↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of the Concepts of Load State, Load Space, and Output Space to Strain-Gage Balances

The concepts of load state, load space, and output space are used to describe elements of the development of a load prediction process for a six–component strain–gage balance. The use of these terms adds clarity during the selection of the independent and dependent variables for the development of the load prediction process. First, the control volume model of a strain–gage balance is reviewed as it helps better understand the role of loads, outputs, and state variables during the load prediction. Then, the description of the absolute load datum in both the load space and the output space is discussed. It is concluded that the use of the difference between a raw output and the natural zero of a balance gage has a key advantage for the definition of the output space. In that case, the origin of the output space will also describe the absolute load datum of the balance. Finally, details of the application of the concepts of load state, load space, and output space to two commonly used balance load prediction methods are discussed.

strain-gage balance↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind Loading on Parabolic Trough Collectors: Wind and Structural Loads Measurements at an Operational Powerplant

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage for industrial applications. Solar collectors constitute almost 1/3 of the total cost of the power plant. One of the primary drivers of unrealiability of these collectors is wind-driven loading of mirrors, support structures, and drives. To date, the design of the solar collector structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) parabolic trough powerplant. At this plant, parabolic trough solar collectors track the sun from east to west in the course of a day and face varying wind loads depending on the wind properties and the angle of the troughs. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights into structural dynamic response, and generating a comprehensive wind-loading dataset for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions at four trough rows at the edge of the trough field. In addition, a Doppler Lidar scans the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously collecting data since October 2021 and are combined with structural load measurements that started in November 2022. The load measurements were installed on the same four outermost trough rows and include support structure bending moments, drive torque moments, dynamic accelerations of the spaceframe, mirror displacement, and tilt angles. Measurements are planned to continue until May 2023, providing a first-of-a-kind, high-resolution multi-month dataset of combined wind and load measurements. In this presentation, we show first results of the measurement campaign. Based on the measurements, we identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. Most interactions between incoming wind and the trough field are observed when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest wind speed and block the downwind rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales are smaller after the first row. This leads to the highest static loads (bending and torque moments) at the first row but potentially increased dynamic loads within the field. We illustrate our findings with case studies focused on different wind conditions and will present fatigue analysis to highlight the impact of wind-driven loads on collector structures.

CSP collectors↗

NASA NTRS1990

Influence of linear profile modification and loading conditions on the dynamic tooth load and stress of high contact ratio gears

A computer simulation for the dynamic response of high-contact-ratio spur gear transmissions is presented. High contact ratio gears have the potential to produce lower dynamic tooth loads and minimum root stress but they can be sensitive to tooth profile errors. The analysis presented examines various profile modifications under realistic loading conditions. The effect of these modifications on the dynamic load (force) between mating gear teeth and the dynamic root stress is presented. Since the contact stress is dependent on the dynamic load, minimizing dynamic loads will also minimize contact stresses. It is shown that the combination of profile modification and the applied load (torque) carried by a gear system has a significant influence on gear dynamics. The ideal modification at one value of applied load will not be the best solution for a different load. High-contact-ratio gears were found to require less modification than standard low-contact-ratio gears. High-contact-ratio gears are more adversely affected by excess modification than by under modification. In addition, the optimal profile modification required to minimize the dynamic load (hence the contact stress) on a gear tooth differs from the optimal modification required to minimize the dynamic root (bending) stress. Computer simulation can help find the design tradeoffs to determine the best profile modification to satisfy the conflicting constraints of minimizing both the load and root stress in gears which must operate over a range of applied loads.

Lee, Chinwai↗

NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

LOAD CONTROL↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wind Tunnel to Full Scale Mapping of Winds and Loads for Launch-Vehicle Ground Wind Loads

A launch vehicle ground-wind-loads program was conducted at the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. The objectives were to quantify key aerodynamic and structural characteristics that impact the occurrence of large wind-induced oscillations of a launch vehicle when exposed to ground winds prior to launch. Of particular interest is the dynamic response of a launch vehicle when a von Kármán vortex street forms in the wake of the vehicle resulting in quasiperiodic lift and drag forces.Vehicle response to these quasiperiodic forces can become quite large when the frequency of vortex shedding nears that of a lowly-damped structural mode thereby exciting a resonant response. The study of ground-wind-loads presents unique challenges to quantify significant characteristics of the approaching wind and to relate the wind-tunnel acquired static, dynamic, and gravitational loads to full-scale vehicles. This paper will explain the correlation process between model-scale and full-scale wind characteristics and resulting structural loads. Characterization of the wind at a launch site requires knowledge of the vehicle dynamics and the anemometer performance. Vehicle dynamics dictate the frequency range of interest in characterization of the atmospheric turbulence, and in defining the required data window-length to model dynamic oscillation build-up during wind-gust analysis. Knowledge of the anemometer performance is required to infer peak wind magnitudes since most anemometers cannot directly measure instantaneous peak values. Following proper wind-speed correlation, static and dynamic wind-tunnel loads must be converted to full-scale equivalent values to derive design and operational guidance. In addition to the direct computation of full-scale equivalent loads using relevant scaling parameters, the corrections applied to dynamic loads accounting for differences in structural damping will also be discussed. Furthermore, a phenomenon that manifests in many slender and flexible launch vehicles is a load magnification due to gravity resulting from mass offset under deflection. A method for scaling this contribution from model-scale to full-scale is presented. Finally, a comparison of wind-tunnel derived loads using the described methodologies to launch vehicle measured loads is presented.

ground wind loads↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wind-Tunnel to Full-Scale Mapping of Winds and Loads for Launch-Vehicle Ground Wind Loads

A launch vehicle ground-wind-loads program was conducted at the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. The objectives were to quantify key aerodynamic and structural characteristics that impact the occurrence of large wind-induced oscillations of a launch vehicle when exposed to ground winds prior to launch. Of particular interest is the dynamic response of a launch vehicle when a von Kármán vortex street forms in the wake of the vehicle resulting in quasiperiodic lift and drag forces. Vehicle response to these quasiperiodic forces can become quite large when the frequency of vortex shedding nears that of a lowly-damped structural mode thereby exciting a resonant response. The study of ground-wind-loads presents unique challenges to quantify significant characteristics of the approaching wind and to relate the wind-tunnel acquired static, dynamic, and gravitational loads to full-scale vehicles. This paper will explain the correlation process between model-scale and full-scale wind characteristics and resulting structural loads. Characterization of the wind at a launch site requires knowledge of the vehicle dynamics and the anemometer performance. Vehicle dynamics dictate the frequency range of interest in characterization of the atmospheric turbulence, and in defining the required data window-length to model dynamic oscillation build-up during wind-gust analysis. Knowledge of the anemometer performance is required to infer peak wind magnitudes since most anemometers cannot directly measure instantaneous peak values. Following proper wind-speed correlation, static and dynamic wind-tunnel loads must be converted to full-scale equivalent values to derive design and operational guidance. In addition to the direct computation of full-scale equivalent loads using relevant scaling parameters, the corrections applied to dynamic loads accounting for differences in structural damping will also be discussed. Furthermore, a phenomenon that manifests in many slender and flexible launch vehicles is a load magnification due to gravity resulting from mass offset under deflection. A method for scaling this contribution from model-scale to full-scale is presented. Finally, a comparison of wind-tunnel derived loads using the described methodologies to launch vehicle measured loads is presented.

Ground wind loads↗