Assessment of Aggregate Risk for JWST
This presentation communicates the aggregate assessment of risk performed for the James Webb Space Telescope prior to shipping the observatory to the launch site.
JWST↗
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JWST Pathfinder Telescope Risk Reduction Cryo Test Program
In 2014, the Optical Ground Support Equipment was integrated into the large cryo vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and an initial Chamber Commissioning Test was completed. This insured that the support equipment was ready for the three Pathfinder telescope cryo tests. The Pathfinder telescope which consists of two primary mirror segment assemblies and the secondary mirror was delivered to JSC in February 2015 in support of this critical risk reduction test program prior to the flight hardware. This paper will detail the Chamber Commissioning and first optical test of the JWST Pathfinder telescope.
Integration↗
Managing Risk for the James Webb Space Telescope Deployment Mechanisms: Enabling First Light
The $10 billion James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is perhaps the most ambitious astronomy mission in NASA history and is the largest and most powerful space science telescope optimized for infrared detection. It is operating in an L2 Orbit about a million miles away from the earth. This will complement and extend the discoveries of the Hubble Space Telescope. It was so big that it had to fold origami – style to fit in the rocket and open in space.Webb’s 5-layer tennis court sized sunshield assembly(SSA) protects the telescope from the Sun’s thermal radiation enabling instruments to operate about 230degree C below 0. It relayed the first amazing picture of galaxies to the world on 12 July 2022. Webb’s unprecedented infrared sensitivity will peer back in time over 13.5 billion years to see the first galaxies born after the Big Bang.
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How NASA decided Webb was ready: Inside the risk assessment
Every do-it-yourselfer knows how hard it can be to declare a project complete. Will another turn of the bolt or brushstroke make things better or worse? That was roughly the choice NASA faced a year before the Dec. 25 launch of the James Webb Space Telescope. Would more testing close more technical risks in the nearly $10 billion project or create new ones? In the end, NASA decided against more testing. NASA’s Jesse Leitner and Tupper Hyde describe the assessment they performed.
JWST↗
Use of a Pathfinder Optical Telescope Element for James Webb Space Telescope Risk Mitigation
A Pathfmder of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Optical Telescope Element is being developed to check out critical ground support equipment and to rehearse integration and testing procedures. This paper provides a summary of the baseline Pathfmder configuration and architecture, objectives of this effort, limitations of Pathfinder, status of its development, and future plans. Special attention is paid to risks that will be mitigated by Pathfmder.
Feinberg, Lee D.↗
Molecular Accumulation during JWST’s Optical Telescope Cryogenic Thermal Vacuum Testing
Maintaining molecular cleanliness during the JWST’s Optical Telescope/Instrument Module (OTIS) Cryogenic Thermal Vacuum (TV) test campaign was critical to the success of its optical mission on orbit. In the thermal vacuum tests leading up to the final cryogenic test to validate the OTIS flight hardware, NASA Johnson Space Center’s (JSC’s) TV Chamber A was fully characterized for molecular contamination. It was found to contain common volatile condensable materials (VCM), including hydrocarbons, plasticizers, and silicones, all of which absorb in JWST’s infrared wavelength region. Due to the risks involved, cleaning molecular contamination from the OTIS mirrors was not an option and heating the Primary Mirror (PM) segments would have also been a risky and expensive endeavor. As a result, a monitoring process was developed and implemented during four different Pathfinder or risk reduction tests that were scheduled to occur prior to the flight hardware test. The goal was to quantify and assess the risk of molecular contamination depositing on the PM resulting from relatively warm chamber shrouds “leading” colder PM mirrors during warmup, by a margin of 10-50 Kelvin (K). This was accomplished using Cryogenic Quartz Crystal Microbalances (CQCMs), held at temperatures slightly cooler than the segments to signal the onset of contamination events. Per the JWST Contamination Control Plan (CCP)1, the total Primary Mirror molecular allocation requirement was 50 angstroms. In all tests, the results showed an average accumulated molecular contamination of <10 angstroms.
optics↗
Molecular Accumulation during JWST’s Optical Telescope Cryogenic Thermal Vacuum Testing
Maintaining molecular cleanliness during the JWST’s Optical Telescope/Instrument Module (OTIS) Cryogenic Thermal Vacuum (TV) test campaign was critical to the success of its optical mission on orbit. In the thermal vacuum tests leading up to the final cryogenic test to validate the OTIS flight hardware, NASA Johnson Space Center’s (JSC’s) TV Chamber A was fully characterized for molecular contamination. It was found to contain common volatile condensable materials (VCM), including hydrocarbons, plasticizers, and silicones, all of which absorb in JWST’s infrared wavelength region. Due to the risks involved, cleaning molecular contamination from the OTIS mirrors was not an option and heating the Primary Mirror (PM) segments would have also been a risky and expensive endeavor. As a result, a monitoring process was developed and implemented during four different Pathfinder or risk reduction tests that were scheduled to occur prior to the flight hardware test. The goal was to quantify and assess the risk of molecular contamination depositing on the PM resulting from relatively warm chamber shrouds “leading” colder PM mirrors during warmup, by a margin of 10-50 Kelvin (K). This was accomplished using Cryogenic Quartz Crystal Microbalances (CQCMs), held at temperatures slightly cooler than the segments to signal the onset of contamination events. Per the JWST Contamination Control Plan (CCP)1, the total Primary Mirror molecular allocation requirement was 50 angstroms. In all tests, the results showed an average accumulated molecular contamination of <10 angstroms.
molecular, contamination, thermal vacuum, cryogeni↗
Integrated Systems Engineering, Safety, Reliability and Risk Management – Minimizing Black Swan Events
This paper examines key barriers that can possibly inhibit safe and reliable mission execution and, in the worst case, result in loss of human life due to many unknown contributory factors that can lead to Black Swan events. Some of the representative contributory factors include decision errors, overconfidence and a host of common causes including cultural and human factors. Decisions are always easy to criticize in hindsight when more information is available after a major accident. Depending on the type and complexity of the project and/or mission, the catastrophic risks of drifting into failure can be alleviated by implementing uniquely and strategically tailored Integrated-System-of-Systems, dynamic, risk-informed decision management processes. This paper presents some of the lessons learned from James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), NASA’s Human Space Flight program, and industry that provide motivation to organizations working on mega-complex missions to prudently accomplish targeted mission success. These lessons are important for future human Lunar, Mars and Beyond missions planned to be pursued by NASA through a public-private partnership using nimble but effective safety-conscious, proven sound engineering practices including implementation of integrated risk mitigation practices.
SLS↗
An Overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Project
The JWST project at the GSFC is responsible for the development, launch, operations and science data processing for the James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST project is currently in phase B with its launch scheduled for August 2011. The project is a partnership between NASA, ESA and CSA. The U.S. JWST team is now fully in place with the recent selection of Northrop Grumman Space Technology (NGST) as the prime contractor for the telescope and the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) as the mission operations and science data processing lead. This paper will provide an overview of the current JWST architecture and mission status including technology developments and risks.
Sabelhaus, Phillip A.↗
An Overview of the James Webb Space Telescope Project
The JWST project at the GSFC is responsible for the development, launch, operations and science data processing for the James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST project is currently in phase B with its launch scheduled for August 2011. The project is a partnership between NASA, ESA and CSA. The U.S. JWST team is in place with the selection of Northrop Grumman Space Technology (NGST) as the prime contractor for the telescope and the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) as the mission operations and science data processing lead. This paper will provide an overview of the current JWST architecture and mission status including technology developments and risks.
Sabelhaus, Phillip A.↗
An Overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Project
The JWST project at the GSFC is responsible for the development, launch, operations and science data processing for the James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST project is currently in phase B with its launch scheduled for August 2011. The project is a partnership between NASA, ESA and CSA. The U.S. JWST team is now fully in place with the selection of Northrop Grumman Space Technology (NGST) as the prime contractor for the telescope and the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) as the mission operations and science data processing lead. This paper will provide an overview of the current JWST architecture and mission status including technology developments and risks.
Sabelhaus, Phillip A.↗
Transforming any Facility for Meeting Strict Cleanliness Requirements
Over the life of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Integration & Test (I&T) has taken place in areas that needed considerable work to make the facility itself and/or the protocols used while working in the rooms suitable to meet JWST percent area coverage (PAC) and molecular accumulation requirements. In addition to normal particulate matter, JWST had a uniquely significant challenge: fibers! Fibers not only cause much higher PAC levels, but they also risk damaging the angstrom sized Near Infrared Spectrometer (NIRSpec) microshutter array (MSA), which is critical to NIRSpec instrument performance. The primary emphasis of this paper is to address particulate and fiber contamination. The success of the JWST mission required effective cleanrooms, protocols, and mitigations in non-cleanroom areas that were pressed into service to house contamination-sensitive optics and scientific instruments. Some presented profound challenges. These included: NASA’s 60-year-old Johnson Space Center (JSC) Chamber A, which had never been used for anything contamination-sensitive, and the European tropical launch facilities, which were designed to meet International Standard Organization (ISO) Class 8 processing for communication satellites. The final challenge for JWST, as if to stare us in the face and say, “I dare you to try and make me clean enough,” was preparing the 4 areas in the Centre Spatial Guyanais (CSG) Final Assembly Building (BAF) located in French Guiana, a building in which one entire side opens for Ariane 5 rocket ingress and egress. This paper will describe our initial evaluation processes and the actual work undertaken to transform even the most challenging areas into first class cleanrooms that met JWST particulate and fiber requirements.
James Webb Space Telescope↗
The Integration and Test Program of the James Webb Space Telescope
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) project has entered into a comprehensive integration and test (I&T) program that over the coming years will assemble the various elements of the observatory (the Optical Telescope Element [OTE], the Integrated Science Instrument Module [ISIM], and the Spacecraft) and verify the readiness of the integrated system for launch. The I&T program as replanned for a 2018 launch readiness date has a number of interesting features. These include a streamlined ISIM cryo-vacuum test program at Goddard Space Flight Center, a streamlined OTIS (OTE + ISIM) test program at Johnson Space Center (JSC), the addition of a second Core cryo-vacuum thermal test, the enhancement of the Pathfinder program at JSC, and enhancement of the subsystem-level testing program for the MIRI cryo-cooler. These latter activities all serve to reduce the risk heading into the end-to-end optical and thermal testing of the telescope at JSC, leading to reduced cost and schedule risk for that critical activity. We report here on the overall I&T program for JWST and on the status of the hardware and plans that support it.
Kimble, Randy↗
The Meteoroid Environment Encountered By the James Webb Space Telescope
All spacecraft run the risk of being damaged by meteoroids at a rate proportional to the spacecraft's surface area. The exceptionally large James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has endured 20 impacts on its primary mirror in its first year of operation. While most of the impacts experienced were commensurate with pre-launch predictions, one particularly large impact in May 2022 prompted the program to take a fresh look at the meteoroid environment in order to determine whether potentially unaccounted-for meteoroid risks can be mitigated. In this talk, we present a directional model of the meteoroid environment encountered by the spacecraft and compare it with the observed impact rate. Because of JWST’s ability to measure nanometer-size changes to the primary mirror surface, our results indicate that meteoroids carrying as little as 1 Joule of kinetic energy can produce measurable effects. We also find that the impact rate is highest when JWST faces in the direction of orbital motion about the Sun. By implementing a "meteoroid avoidance zone" that discourages observations within 75° of the ram direction, we estimate that JWST has reduced the impact rate by more than half.
Althea Moorhead↗
JWST Pathfinder Telescope Integration
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a 6.5m, segmented, IR telescope that will explore the first light of the universe after the big bang. In 2014, a major risk reduction effort related to the Alignment, Integration, and Test (AI&T) of the segmented telescope was completed. The Pathfinder telescope includes two Primary Mirror Segment Assemblies (PMSA's) and the Secondary Mirror Assembly (SMA) onto a flight-like composite telescope backplane. This pathfinder allowed the JWST team to assess the alignment process and to better understand the various error sources that need to be accommodated in the flight build. The successful completion of the Pathfinder Telescope provides a final integration roadmap for the flight operations that will start in August 2015.
JWST↗
Bayesian Approach for Reliability Assessment of Sunshield Deployment on JWST
Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications, for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a Bayesian approach for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This approach was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the observatory's telescope and science instruments. In order to collect the prior information on deployable systems, detailed studies of "heritage information", were conducted extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Spacecraft Operational Anomaly and Reporting System (SOARS) data were then used to estimate the parameters of the conjugative beta prior distribution for anomaly and failure occurrence, as the most consistent set of available data and that could be matched to launch histories. This allows for an emperical Bayesian prediction for the risk of an anomaly occurrence of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, using prior deployment data and test information.
Kaminskiy, Mark P.↗
Study of a High-Energy Upper Stage for Future Shuttle Missions
Space Shuttle Orbiters are likely to remain in service to 2020 or beyond for servicing the International Space Station and for launching very high value spacecraft. There is a need for a new STS-deployable upper stage that can boost certain Orbiter payloads to higher energy orbits, up to and including Earth-escape trajectories. The inventory of solid rocket motor Inertial Upper Stages has been depleted, and it is unlikely that a LOX/LH2-fueled upper stage can fly on Shuttle due to safety concerns. This paper summarizes the results of a study that investigated a low cost, low risk approach to quickly developing a new large upper stage optimized to fly on the existing Shuttle fleet. Two design reference missions (DRMs) were specified: the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM). Two categories of upper stage propellants were examined in detail: a storable liquid propellant and a storable gel propellant. Stage subsystems 'other than propulsion were based largely on heritage hardware to minimize cost, risk and development schedule span. The paper presents the ground rules and guidelines for conducting the study, the preliminary conceptual designs margins, assessments of technology readiness/risk, potential synergy with other programs, and preliminary estimates of development and production costs and schedule spans. Although the Orbiter Columbia was baselined for the study, discussion is provided to show how the results apply to the remaining STS Orbiter fleet.
Dressler, Gordon A.↗
Successful Completion of the JWST OGSE2 Cryogenic Test at JSC Chamber-A While Managing Numerous Challenges
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Optical Telescope Element (OTE) assembly is the largest optically stable infrared-optimized telescope currently being manufactured and assembled, and scheduled for launch in 2018. The JWST OTE, including the primary mirrors, secondary mirror, and the Aft Optics Subsystems (AOS) are designed to be passively cooled and operate at near 45 degrees Kelvin. Due to the size of its large sunshield in relation to existing test facilities, JWST cannot be optically or thermally tested as a complete observatory-level system at flight temperatures. As a result, the telescope portion along with its instrument complement will be tested as a single unit very late in the program, and on the program schedule critical path. To mitigate schedule risks, a set of 'pathfinder' cryogenic tests will be performed to reduce program risks by demonstrating the optical testing capabilities of the facility, characterizing telescope thermal performance, and allowing project personnel to learn valuable testing lessons off-line. This paper describes the 'pathfinder' cryogenic test program, focusing on the recently completed second test in the series called the Optical Ground Support Equipment 2 (OGSE2) test. The JWST OGSE2 was successfully completed within the allocated project schedule while faced with numerous conflicting thermal requirements during cool-down to the final cryogenic operational temperatures, and during warm-up after the cryo-stable optical tests. The challenges include developing a pre-test cool-down and warm-up profiles without a reliable method to predict the thermal behaviors in a rarified helium environment, and managing the test article hardware safety driven by the project Limits and Constraints (L&C's). Furthermore, OGSE2 test included the time critical Aft Optics Subsystem (AOS), a part of the flight Optical Telescope Element that would need to be placed back in the overall telescope assembly integrations. The OGSE2 test requirements included the strict adherence of the project contamination controls due to the presence of the contamination sensitive flight optical elements. The test operations required close coordination of numerous personnel while they being exposed and trained for the 'final' combined OTE and instrument cryo-test in 2017. This paper will also encompass the OGSE2 thermal data look-back review.
JWST OGSE2 Cryogenic Test↗