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On Nov. 17, 1996 an extraordinary Leonid meteor storm (144,000 per hour) was witnessed by observers in central and western United States. With an orbital period of 33 years, the next return to perihelion will be Feb. 28, 1998. Because the distribution of the particles flying in formation with the parent comet is poorly known, no secure predictions can be made for Leonid meteor storms in the coming years.
Photographic multi-station observations of 47 Leonid meteors are presented that were obtained from two ground locations in Spain during the 1999 meteor storm. We find an unresolved compact cluster of radiants at alpha = 153.67 +/- 0.05 and delta = 21.70 +/- 0.05 for a mean solar longitude of 235.282 (J2000). The position is identical to that of the November 17/18 outburst of 1998, which implies that both are due to comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle's ejecta from 1899. We also find a halo which contains about 28% of all meteors. The spatial distribution of radiant positions appears to be Lorentzian, with a similar fraction of meteors in the profile wings as the meteor storm activity curve.
High altitude balloon (20 km) and low-density capture media were explored to return meteor-related dust during the November 1998 Leonids meteor storm. One 20-30 micron particle captured showed a characteristic signature of extraterrestrial origin, featuring high aluminum, magnesium and other non-volatile metals. The technique of balloon capture will be optimized for March and November 1999 reflights.
In February 1997, the Japanese Space Agency ISAS launched the first space VLBI Space Observatory Program Satellite (VSOP) using the newly developed M-V launch vehicle.
Small meteoric fragments are ejected at significant transverse velocities from some (up to approx. 8%) fast Leonid meteors. We reach this conclusion using low light intensified image measurements obtained during the 1999 Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign. High spatial resolution, narrow band image measurements of the Mg I emission at 518 nm have been used to clearly identify jet-like features in the meteor head that are the same as first observed in white light. We postulate that these unusual structures are caused by tiny meteoroid fragments (containing metallic grains) being rapidly ejected away from the core meteoroid as the constituent glue evaporates. Marked curvature observed in the jet-like filaments suggest that the parent meteoroids are spinning and as the whirling fragments are knocked away by the impinging air molecules, or by grain-grain collisions in the fragment ensemble, they ablate quickly generating an extended area of structured luminosity up to about 1-2 km from the meteoroid center. Fragments with smaller transverse velocity components are thought to be responsible for the associated beading evident in the wake of these unusual Leonid meteors.
The recent Leonid meteor storms have propelled meteor shower forecasting from an idea into the realm of practical application, invoked several times per year by numerous spacecraft. This paper will describe shower activity predictions, which give zenith hourly rate (ZHR) as a function of time, and how these are translated into spacecraft risks. Common spacecraft meteor shower mitigation strategies will also be discussed, and the important issue as to when to implement such operations considered. It should be noted that, while the recent meteor storms did not result in the loss of a vehicle, there were a few spacecraft anomalies attributed to Leonid strikes, and the nature of these will be commented upon. Finally, we assess the current state of the art in shower forecasting, and take a look "down the road" at some possible outbursts in the near future.
The speed and mass dependence of meteor air plasma temperatures is perhaps the most important data needed to understand how small meteoroids chemically change the ambient atmosphere in their path and enrich the ablated meteoric organic matter with oxygen. Such chemistry can play an important role in creating prebiotic compounds. The excitation conditions in various air plasma emissions were measured from high-resolution optical spectra of Leonid storm meteors during NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign. This was the first time a sufficient number and range of temperature measurements were obtained to search for meteoroid mass and speed dependencies. We found slight increases in temperature with decreasing altitude, but otherwise nearly constant values for meteoroids with speeds between 35 and 72 km/s and masses between 10(-5) g and 1 g. We conclude that faster and more massive meteoroids produce a larger emission volume, but not a higher air plasma temperature. We speculate that the meteoric plasma may be in multiphase equilibrium with the ambient atmosphere, which could mean lower plasma temperatures in a CO(2)-rich early Earth atmosphere.
A detailed meteor flux analysis is presented of a seventeen-minute portion of one videotape, collected on November 18, 1999, during the Leonid Multi-instrument Aircraft Campaign. The data was recorded around the peak of the Leonid meteor storm using an intensified CCD camera pointed towards the low southern horizon. Positions of meteors on the sky were measured. These measured meteor distributions were compared to a Monte Carlo simulation, which is a new approach to parameter estimation for mass ratio and flux. Comparison of simulated flux versus observed flux levels, seen between 1:50:00 and 2:06:41 UT, indicate a magnitude population index of r = 1.8 +/- 0.1 and mass ratio of s = 1.64 +/- 0.06. The average spatial density of the material contributing to the Leonid storm peak is measured at 0.82 +/- 0.19 particles per square kilometer per hour for particles of at least absolute visual magnitude +6.5. Clustering analysis of the arrival times of Leonids impacting the earth's atmosphere over the total observing interval shows no enhancement or clumping down to time scales of the video frame rate. This indicates a uniformly random temporal distribution of particles in the stream encountered during the 1999 epoch. Based on the observed distribution of meteors on the sky and the model distribution, recommendations am made for the optimal pointing directions for video camera meteor counts during future ground and airborne missions.
The annual November Leonid meteor showers and the occasional Leonid meteor storms (e.g. 1833, 1966) are far better known than is the Leonid parent body, comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle.
Photometric low-light level video observations of 1999 Leonid storm meteors have been obtained from airborne platforms during the Leonid multi-instrument aircraft campaign (Leonid MAC). The 1999 Leonid light curves tend to be skewed towards the end point of the trajectory, while the 1998 Leonid light curves were not. The variation in the light curves from 1998 and 1999 can be explained as an overall reduction in the mass distribution index, alpha from approximately 1.95 in 1998 to approximately 1.75 in 1999. We have interpreted this behavior as being either indicative of a gradual loss of the "glue" that keeps the grains together, or the fact that the meteoroids sampled in 1998 had a different morphological structure to those sampled in 1999. The early fragmentation of a dustball meteoroid results in a light curve that peaks sooner than that predicted by classical single body ablation theory.
Meteoroids that dominate the Earth's extraterrestrial mass influx (50-300 microm size range) may have contributed a unique blend of exogenous organic molecules at the time of the origin of life. Such meteoroids are so large that most of their mass is ablated in the Earth's atmosphere. In the process, organic molecules are decomposed and chemically altered to molecules differently from those delivered to the Earth's surface by smaller (<50 microm) micrometeorites and larger (>10 cm) meteorites. The question addressed here is whether the organic matter in these meteoroids is fully decomposed into atoms or diatomic compounds during ablation. If not, then the ablation products made available for prebiotic organic chemistry, and perhaps early biology, might have retained some memory of their astrophysical nature. To test this hypothesis we searched for CN emission in meteor spectra in an airborne experiment during the 2001 Leonid meteor storm. We found that the meteor's light-emitting air plasma, which included products of meteor ablation, contained less than 1 CN molecule for every 30 meteoric iron atoms. This contrasts sharply with the nitrogen/iron ratio of 1:1.2 in the solid matter of comet 1P/Halley. Unless the nitrogen content or the abundance of complex organic matter in the Leonid parent body, comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, differs from that in comet 1P/Halley, it appears that very little of that organic nitrogen decomposes into CN molecules during meteor ablation in the rarefied flow conditions that characterize the atmospheric entry of meteoroids approximately 50 microm-10 cm in size. We propose that the organics of such meteoroids survive instead as larger compounds.
The Leonid meteor storm of 1999 was observed from two B707-type research aircraft by a team of 35 scientists of seven nationalities over the Mediterranean Sea on Nov. 18, 1999. The mission was sponsored by various science programs of NASA, and offered the best possible observing conditions, free of clouds and at a prime location for viewing the storm. The 1999 mission followed a similar effort in 1998, improving upon mission strategy and scope. As before, spectroscopic and imaging experiments targeted meteors and persistent trains, but also airglow, aurora, elves and sprites. The research aimed to address outstanding questions in Planetary Science, Astronomy, Astrobiology and upper atmospheric research, including Aeronornie. In addition, near real-time flux measurements contributed to a USAF sponsored program for space weather awareness. An overview of the first results is given, which are discussed in preparation for future missions.
Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.
Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.
It is well known that some meteor showers display a very high level of activity at certain times, the most famous being the Leonid shower with very spectacular displays at roughly 33 year intervals. This period being also the period of the parent comet of the stream, Comet Tempel-Tuttle. An investigation of the geometry of the comet and the Earth at the time of each high activity occurrence by Yeomans suggests that most of the meteoroids are found outside the cometary orbit and lagging the comet. The formation process of such a stream by numerically integrating the orbits of dust particles ejected from the comet and moving under the influence of gravity and radiation pressure are simulated. The intersection of these dust particles with the Earth is also considered and it is concluded that about 12 percent of the ejected particles may be observed and that of those observable, 63 percent will be outside the cometary orbit and behind the comet.
A new hybrid technique of visual and video meteor observations was developed to provide high precision near real-time flux measurements for satellite operators from airborne platforms. A total of 33,000 Leonids. recorded on video during the 1999 Leonid storm, were watched by a team of visual observers using a video head display and an automatic counting tool. The counts reveal that the activity profile of the Leonid storm is a Lorentz profile. By assuming a radial profile for the dust trail that is also a Lorentzian, we make predictions for future encounters. If that assumption is correct, we passed 0.0003 AU deeper into the 1899 trailet than expected during the storm of 1999 and future encounters with the 1866 trailet will be less intense than. predicted elsewhere.
During the 2001 Leonid storm, Marshall Space Flight Center, with the cooperation of the University of Western Ontario and the United States Air Force, deployed 6 teams of observers equipped with intensified video systems to sites located in North America, the Pacific, and Mongolia. The campaign was extremely successful, with the entire period of enhanced Leonid activity (over 16 hours) captured on video tape in a consistent manner. We present the first results from the analysis of this unique, 2 terabyte data set and discuss the problems involved in reducing large amounts of video meteor data. In particular, the question of how to determine meteor masses though photometric analysis will be re-examined, and new techniques will be proposed that eliminate some of the deficiencies suffered by the techniques currently employed in video meteor analysis.
During the 2001 Leonid storm, Marshall Space Flight Center, with the cooperation of the University of Western Ontario and the United States Air Force, deployed 6 teams of observers equipped with intensified video systems to sites located in North America, the Pacific, and Mongolia. The campaign was extremely successful, with the entire period of enhanced Leonid activity (over 16 hours) captured on video tape in a consistent manner. We present the first results from the analysis of this unique, 2 terabyte data set and discuss the problems involved in reducing large amounts of video meteor data. In particular, the question of how to determine meteor masses though photometric analysis will be re-examined, and new techniques will be proposed that eliminate some of the deficiencies suffered by the techniques currently employed in video meteor analysis.