Results for “Mission design”

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Mission Design for Imaging Spectroscopy Retrievals for Land and Aquatic Ecosystems

The retrieval algorithms used for optical remote sensing satellite data to estimate Earth's geophysical properties have specific requirements for spatial resolution, temporal revisit, spectral range and resolution, and instrument signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) performance to meet biogeoscience objectives. Studies to estimate surface properties from hyperspectral data use a range of algorithms sensitive to various sources of spectroscopic uncertainty, which are in turn influenced by mission architecture choices. Retrieval algorithms vary across scientific fields and may be more or less sensitive to mission architecture choices that affect spectral, spatial, or temporal resolutions and spectrometer SNR. We used representative remote sensing algorithms across terrestrial and aquatic study domains to inform aspects of mission design that are most important for impacting accuracy in each scientific area. We simulated the propagation of uncertainties in the retrieval process including the effects of different instrument configuration choices. We found that retrieval accuracy and information content degrade consistently at >10 nm spectral resolution, >30 m spatial resolution, and >8-day revisit. In these studies, the noise reduction associated with lower spatial resolution improved accuracy vis à vis high spatial resolution measurements. The interplay between spatial resolution, temporal revisit, and SNR can be quantitatively assessed for imaging spectroscopy missions and used to identify key components of algorithm performance and mission observing criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rapid sterilizing strategies for N95 respirators to design mission ready PPE for first responders.

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Biological Science↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mission-driven design methodology for optical systems

Disclosed are devices, systems and methods for a mission-driven design framework for optical systems. An exemplary method for improving the design of an optical system includes receive a first plurality of parameters indicative of performance requirements of the optical system, receive a second plurality of parameters representative of characteristics of one or more components in the optical system, generate a mathematical representation that combines the first plurality of parameters and the second plurality of parameters, perform a sensitivity analysis to obtain a ranking of parameters from the first plurality of parameters and the second plurality of parameters, select, based on the ranking of the parameters, at least one parameter that produces a largest change in the mathematical representation, and produce a constraint file comprising the at least one parameter for ingestion by a design tool to enable the design of the optical system.

Higbee, Shawn D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design, construction, and test of the Gas Pixel Detectors for the IXPE mission

Due to be launched in late 2021, the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) is a NASA Small Explorer mission designed to perform polarization measurements in the 2–8 keV band, complemented with imaging, spectroscopy and timing capabilities. At the heart of the focal plane is a set of three polarization-sensitive Gas Pixel Detectors (GPD), each based on a custom ASIC acting as a charge-collecting anode. In this paper we shall review the design, manufacturing, and test of the IXPE focal-plane detectors, with particular emphasis on the connection between the science drivers, the performance metrics and the operational aspects. We shall present a thorough characterization of the GPDs in terms of effective noise, trigger efficiency, dead time, uniformity of response, and spectral and polarimetric performance. In addition, we shall discuss in detail a number of instrumental effects that are relevant for high-level science analysis—particularly as far as the response to unpolarized radiation and the stability in time are concerned.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Materials and Fuels Complex (FY2021-2025 Five-Year Mission Strategy)

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), through its designated mission of advancing innovative nuclear energy solutions, is actively engaged in the research, development, demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear technology, as well as in fostering private-public partnership for technology development. Key to the success of INL’s mission is the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), the only complex in the U.S. that hosts a world-class assemblage of facilities, capabilities and instruments for handling, testing, and characterizing radioactive materials. Driven by its mission/vision of “Engineering and Experiments that Drive the World’s Nuclear Energy Future,” MFC is at the center of INL’s – and indeed the Department of Energy’s – advanced nuclear technology development initiatives, providing essential capabilities such as engineering-scale high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel production, reactor demonstration facilities, post-irradiation examination, and transient irradiation testing. Furthermore, MFC provides an ideal environment for test beds that are utilized for research, development and demonstration (RD&D) activities on used fuel treatment, nuclear non-proliferation, forensics, and nuclear power sources used for space exploration missions conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Materials and Fuels Complex FY-22 – FY-26 Five-Year Mission Strategy

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), through its designated mission of advancing innovative nuclear energy solutions, is actively engaged in the research, development, demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear technology. Key to the success of INL’s mission is the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), the only complex in the U.S. that hosts a world-class assemblage of facilities, capabilities and instruments for handling, testing, and characterizing nuclear fuel and radioactive materials. Driven by its mission/vision of “Engineering and Experiments that Drive the World’s Nuclear Energy Future,” MFC is at the center of INL’s – and indeed the Department of Energy’s – advanced nuclear technology development initiatives, providing essential capabilities such as research-scale high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel production, reactor demonstration facilities, post-irradiation examination, and transient irradiation testing. Furthermore, MFC provides an ideal environment for test beds that are utilized for research, development and demonstration (RD&D) activities on used fuel treatment, nuclear non-proliferation, forensics, and nuclear power sources used for space exploration missions conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Materials and Fuels Complex Five-Year Mission Strategy (FY21- FY25)

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), through its designated mission of advancing innovative nuclear energy solutions, is actively engaged in the research, development, demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear technology, as well as in fostering private-public partnership for technology development. Key to the success of INL’s mission is the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), the only complex in the U.S. that hosts a world-class assemblage of facilities, capabilities and instruments for handling, testing, and characterizing radioactive materials. Driven by its mission/vision of “Engineering and Experiments that Drive the World’s Nuclear Energy Future,” MFC is at the center of INL’s – and indeed the Department of Energy’s – advanced nuclear technology development initiatives, providing essential capabilities such as engineering-scale high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel production, reactor demonstration facilities, post-irradiation examination, and transient irradiation testing. Furthermore, MFC provides an ideal environment for test beds that are utilized for research, development and demonstration (RD&D) activities on used fuel treatment, nuclear non-proliferation, forensics, and nuclear power sources used for space exploration missions conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The FIREBIRD-II CubeSat Mission (Focused Investigations of Relativistic Electron Burst Intensity, Range, and Dynamics)

FIREBIRD-II is a National Science Foundation funded CubeSat mission designed to study the scale size and energy spectrum of relativistic electron microbursts. The mission consists of two identical 1.5 U CubeSats in a low earth polar orbit, each with two solid state detectors that differ only in the size of their geometric factors and fields of view. Having two spacecraft in close orbit allows the scale size of microbursts to be investigated through the intra-spacecraft separation when microbursts are observed simultaneously on each unit. Each detector returns high cadence (10 s of ms) measurements of the electron population from 200 keV to >1 MeV across six energy channels. The energy channels were selected to fill a gap in the observations of the Heavy Ion Large Telescope instrument on the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer. FIREBIRD-II has been in orbit for 5 years and continues to return high quality data. After the first month in orbit, the spacecraft had separated beyond the expected scale size of microbursts, so the focus has shifted toward conjunctions with other magnetospheric missions. FIREBIRD-II has addressed all of its primary science objectives, and its long lifetime and focus on conjunctions has enabled additional science beyond the scope of the original mission. This paper presents a brief history of the FIREBIRD mission’s science goals, followed by a description of the instrument and spacecraft. The data products are then discussed along with some caveats necessary for proper use of the data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low Enriched Uranium U-10Mo Fuel Design Parameters

Activities to convert the HFIR from HEU to LEU are ongoing as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities to study the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a uranium-molybdenum (U-10Mo) monolithic alloy fuel. This high-density alloy contains 90 wt % uranium and 10 wt % molybdenum and has a uranium density of 15.318gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several candidate HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools and design methods enabled a thorough analysis of the available design space with U-10Mo fuel. A surrogate model used this analysis as training data to quickly determine the performance of a design given specific design parameters. An optimization module used this surrogate model to quickly search this multidimensional search space given specific desired performance characteristics. This approach was made possible by the large available design space with U-10Mo fuel. Shift, a Monte Carlo tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, was used for faster calculation and better data management for reactor physics simulations. Once most of these design studies were complete, a new suite called the Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was developed to connect all fuel design analysis steps, making design studies more efficient and reproducible. The post-processing capabilities of these new tools are leveraged for the information provided herein. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected with varying levels of feature complexity and reactor performance. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU U-10Mo fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities, are provided. Simulations show that the high uranium density of U-10Mo fuel provides a large potential design space that enables various LEU designs to meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements with a power increase from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW or 100 MW (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low-Enriched Uranium Low Density Silicide Fuel Design Parameters

High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) conversion activities are ongoing as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities studying the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a low density uranium-silicide dispersion (U 3 Si 2 -Al) fuel, which has a uranium density of 4.8 gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. The documented designs will serve as references for fuel fabrication and qualification activities. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools enable quick prototyping of fuel designs. Shift, a Monte Carlo neutron transport and depletion tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, is used for efficient fuel cycle and performance metrics calculations. The HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) is used to vet the thermal safety margin. Also, a new automation tool that connects all fuel design analysis steps, named Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME), has been developed to expedite the design study in an efficient and reproducible manner. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected for varying fabrication complexity. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU low density U 3 Si 2 -Al fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal, best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities are provided for candidate fuel designs relevant to framing irradiation experiments to support fuel qualification efforts. Simulations show that the low density U 3 Si 2 -Al, with design features to enhance safety, can meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements if the reactor power is increased from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW (LEU) and if the active fuel length is increased from 50.80 cm (HEU) to 55.88 cm (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

EarthShine: Observing our world as an exoplanet from the surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. EarthShine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo “follow the water.” EarthShine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of EarthShine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

NASA's surface biology and geology designated observable: A perspective on surface imaging algorithms

The 2017-2027 National Academies' Decadal Survey, Thriving on Our Changing Planet, recommended Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) as a "Designated Targeted Observable" (DO). The SBG DO is based on the need for capabilities to acquire global, high spatial resolution, visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR; 380 - 2500 nm; ~30 m pixel resolution) hyperspectral (imaging spectroscopy) and multispectral midwave and thermal infrared (MWIR: 3-5 µm; TIR: 8-12 µm; ~60 m pixel resolution) measurements with sub-monthly temporal revisits over terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine habitats. To address the various mission design needs, an SBG Algorithms Working Group of multidisciplinary researchers has been formed to review and evaluate the algorithms applicable to the SBG DO across a wide range of Earth science disciplines, including terrestrial and aquatic ecology, atmospheric science, geology, and hydrology. Here, we summarize current state-of-the-practice VSWIR and TIR algorithms that use airborne or orbital spectral imaging observations to address the SBG DO priorities identified by the Decadal Survey: (i) terrestrial vegetation physiology, functional traits, and health; (ii) inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems physiology, functional traits, and health; (iii) snow and ice accumulation, melting, and albedo; (iv) active surface composition (eruptions, landslides, evolving landscapes, hazard risks); (v) effects of changing land use on surface energy, water, momentum, and carbon fluxes; and (vi) managing agriculture, natural habitats, water use/quality, and urban development. We review existing algorithms in the following categories: snow/ice, aquatic environments, geology, and terrestrial vegetation, and summarize the community-state-of-practice in each category. Finally, this effort synthesizes the findings of more than 130 scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) Antarctic Balloon Payload

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) is an Antarctic stratospheric balloon mission designed to provide unmatched sensitivity to low-energy (<0.25 GeV/n) cosmic-ray antiprotons, antideuterons, and antihelium nuclei as signatures of dark matter. The distinctive GAPS particle identification technique relies on measuring the energy loss along the track of an incoming antinucleus as it slows down and is captured into an exotic atom, and then detecting the de-excitation X-rays and the nuclear annihilation products. This measurement is realized using a Tracker composed of more than 1000 custom silicon strip detectors and a plastic scintillator time-of-flight (TOF) system instrumenting more than 40m$^2$. Together, these subsystems provide the velocity and energy resolution, stopping power, particle tracking, and X-ray identification necessary to distinguish rare antinucleus signals from the abundant positive-nucleus backgrounds, all within the constraints of a high-altitude mission. A multi-loop capillary heat pipe system has been developed to maintain the tracker operating temperature with significant mass and power savings over a conventional pump-based system. The first GAPS science payload flew for 25 days during the 2025/26 NASA Antarctic balloon campaign. We detail the design, integration, and commissioning of the payload prior to flight.

Aoyama, Kazutaka [JAXA, Sagamihara]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) Data Sets: Description, Management, and Delivery

The ACT-America project is a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital-2 mission designed to study the transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases. The open and freely available ACT-America data sets provide airborne in situ measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorological properties, airborne remote sensing measurements of aerosol backscatter, atmospheric boundary layer height and columnar content of atmospheric carbon dioxide, tower-based measurements, and modeled atmospheric mole fractions and regional carbon fluxes of greenhouse gases over the Central and Eastern United States. In this study, we conducted 121 research flights during five campaigns in four seasons during 2016–2019 over three regions of the US (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South) using two NASA research aircraft (B-200 and C-130). We performed three flight patterns (fair weather, frontal crossings, and OCO-2 underflights) and collected more than 1,140 h of airborne measurements via level-leg flights in the atmospheric boundary layer, lower, and upper free troposphere and vertical profiles spanning these altitudes. We also merged various airborne in situ measurements onto a common standard sampling interval, which brings coherence to the data, creates geolocated data products, and makes it much easier for the users to perform holistic analysis of the ACT-America data products. Here, we report on detailed information of data sets collected, the workflow for data sets including storage and processing of the quality controlled and quality assured harmonized observations, and their archival and formatting for users. Finally, we provide some important information on the dissemination of data products including metadata and highlights of applications of ACT-America data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗