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Data assimilation empowered neural network parametrizations for subgrid processes in geophysical flows

In the past couple of years, there has been a proliferation in the use of machine learning approaches to represent subgrid-scale processes in geophysical flows with an aim to improve the forecasting capability and to accelerate numerical simulations of these flows. Despite its success for different types of flow, the online deployment of a data-driven closure model can cause instabilities and biases in modeling the overall effect of subgrid-scale processes, which in turn leads to inaccurate prediction. To tackle this issue, we exploit the data assimilation technique to correct the physics-based model coupled with the neural network as a surrogate for unresolved flow dynamics in multiscale systems. In particular, we use a set of neural network architectures to learn the correlation between resolved flow variables and the parametrizations of unresolved flow dynamics and formulate a data assimilation approach to correct the hybrid model during their online deployment. We illustrate our framework in a set of applications of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system for which the parametrization model for unresolved scales is exactly known, and the two-dimensional Kraichnan turbulence system for which the parametrization model for unresolved scales is not known a priori. Our analysis, therefore, comprises a predictive dynamical core empowered by (i) a data-driven closure model for subgrid-scale processes, (ii) a data assimilation approach for forecast error correction, and (iii) both data-driven closure and data assimilation procedures. We show significant improvement in the long-term prediction of the underlying chaotic dynamics with our framework compared to using only neural network parametrizations for future prediction. Moreover, we demonstrate that these data-driven parametrization models can handle the non-Gaussian statistics of subgrid-scale processes, and effectively improve the accuracy of outer data assimilation workflow loops in a modular nonintrusive way.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SHARP simulation of discontinuities in highly convective steady flow

For steady multidimesional convection, the Quadratic Upstream Interpolation for Convective Kinematics (QUICK) scheme has several attractive properties. However, for highly convective simulation of step profiles, QUICK produces unphysical overshoots and a few oscillations, and this may cause serious problems in nonlinear flows. Fortunately, it is possible to modify the convective flux by writing the normalized convected control-volume face value as a function of the normalized adjacent upstream node value, developing criteria for monotonic resolution without sacrificing formal accuracy. This results in a nonlinear functional relationship between the normalized variables, whereas standard methods are all linear in this sense. The resulting Simple High Accuracy Resolution Program (SHARP) can be applied to steady multidimensional flows containing thin shear or mixing layers, shock waves, and other frontal phenomena. This represents a significant advance in modeling highly convective flows of engineering and geophysical importance. SHARP is based on an explicit, conservative, control-volume flux formation, equally applicable to one, two, or three dimensional elliptic, parabolic, hyperbolic, or mixed-flow regimes. Results are given for the bench-mark purely convective first-order results and the nonmonotonic predictions of second- and third-order upwinding.

Leonard, B. P.↗

Simple high-accuracy resolution program for convective modelling of discontinuities

For steady multidimensional convection, the Quadratic Upstream Interpolation for Convective Kinematics (QUICK) scheme has several attractive properties. However, for highly convective simulation of step profiles, QUICK produces unphysical overshoots and a few oscillations, and this may cause serious problems in nonlinear flows. Fortunately, it is possible to modify the convective flux by writing the normalized convected control-volume face value as a function of the normalized adjacent upstream node value, developing criteria for monotonic resolution without sacrificing formal accuracy. This results in a nonlinear functional relationship between the normalized variables, whereas standard methods are all linear in this sense. The resulting Simple High Accuracy Resolution Program (SHARP) can be applied to steady multidimensional flows containing thin shear or mixing layers, shock waves, and other frontal phenomena. This represents a significant advance in modeling highly convective flows of engineering and geophysical importance. SHARP is based on an explicit, conservative, control-volume flux formation, equally applicable to one, two, or three dimensional elliptic, parabolic, hyperbolic, or mixed-flow regimes. Results are given for the bench-mark purely convective first-order results and the nonmonotonic predictions of second- and third-order upwinding.

Leonard, B. P.↗

The maintenance of coherent vortex topology by Lagrangian chaos in drift-Rossby wave turbulence

Here, this work introduces the “potential vorticity bucket brigade,” a mechanism for explaining the resilience of vortex structures in magnetically confined fusion plasmas and geophysical flows. Drawing parallels with zonal jet formation, we show how inhomogeneous patterns of mixing can reinforce, rather than destroy non-zonal flow structure. We accomplish this through an exact stochastic Lagrangian representation of vorticity transport, together with a near-integrability property, which relates coherent flow topology to fluid relabeling symmetries. We demonstrate these ideas in the context of gradient-driven magnetized plasma turbulence, though the tools we develop here are model-agnostic and applicable beyond the system studied here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integration of Electromagnetic Geophysics Forward Simulation in Coupled Flow and Geomechanics for Monitoring a Gas Hydrate Deposit Located in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, Korea

We investigate the feasibility of electromagnetic (EM) geophysics methods to detect the dissociation of gas hydrate specifically from a gas hydrate deposit located in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, Korea via an integrated flow-geomechanics-EM geophysics simulation. To this end, coupled flow and geomechanics simulation is first performed with the multiple porosity model employed, where a mixed formulation with the finite volume (FV) and finite element (FE) methods are taken for the flow and geomechanics, respectively. From the saturation and porosity fields obtained from the coupled flow and geomechanics, the electrical conductivity model is established for the EM simulation. Solving the partial differential equation of electrical diffusion which is linearized using the 3D finite element method (FEM), the EM fields are then computed. For numerical experiments, particularly two approaches in the configuration for the EM methods are compared in this contribution: the surface-to-surface and the surface-to-borehole methods. When the surface-to-surface EM method is employed, the EM is found to be less sensitive, implying low detectability. Especially for the short term of production, the low detectability is attributed to the similarity of electrical resistivity between the dissociated gas (CH4) and hydrate as well as the specific dissociation pattern within the intercalated composites of the field. On the other hand, when the surface-to-borehole EM method is employed, its sensitivity to capture the produced gas flow is improved, confirming its detectability in monitoring gas flow. Hence, the EM geophysics simulation integrated with coupled flow and geomechanics can be a potential tool for monitoring gas hydrate deposits.

depressurization↗

Finite element analysis in fluids; Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Finite Element Methods in Flow Problems, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Apr. 3-7, 1989

Recent advances in computational fluid dynamics are examined in reviews and reports, with an emphasis on finite-element methods. Sections are devoted to adaptive meshes, atmospheric dynamics, combustion, compressible flows, control-volume finite elements, crystal growth, domain decomposition, EM-field problems, FDM/FEM, and fluid-structure interactions. Consideration is given to free-boundary problems with heat transfer, free surface flow, geophysical flow problems, heat and mass transfer, high-speed flow, incompressible flow, inverse design methods, MHD problems, the mathematics of finite elements, and mesh generation. Also discussed are mixed finite elements, multigrid methods, non-Newtonian fluids, numerical dissipation, parallel vector processing, reservoir simulation, seepage, shallow-water problems, spectral methods, supercomputer architectures, three-dimensional problems, and turbulent flows.

Chung, T. J.↗

Mixing across stable density interfaces in forced stratified turbulence

Understanding how turbulence enhances irreversible scalar mixing in density-stratified fluids is a central problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. While isotropic overturning regions are commonly the focus of mixing analyses, we here investigate whether significant mixing may arise in anisotropic statically stable regions of the flow. Focusing on a single forced direct numerical simulation of stratified turbulence, we analyse spatial correlations between the vertical density gradient $\partial \rho /\partial z$ and the dissipation rates of kinetic energy $\epsilon$ and scalar variance $\chi$ , the latter quantifying scalar mixing. The domain is characterized by relatively well-mixed density layers separated by sharp stable interfaces that are correlated with high vertical shear. While static instability is most prevalent within the mixed layers, much of the scalar mixing is localized to the intervening interfaces, a phenomenon not apparent if considering local static instability or $\epsilon$ alone. While the majority of the domain is characterized by the canonical flux coefficient $\varGamma \equiv \chi /\epsilon =0.2$ , often assumed in ocean mixing parametrizations, extreme values of $\chi$ within the statically stable interfaces, associated with elevated $\varGamma$ , strongly skew the bulk statistics. Our findings suggest that current parametrizations of turbulent mixing may be biased by undersampling, such that the most common, but not necessarily the most significant, mixing events are overweighted. Having focused here on a single simulation of stratified turbulence, it is hoped that our results motivate a broader investigation into the role played by stable density interfaces in mixing, across a wider range of parameters and forcing schemes representative of ocean turbulence.

Couchman, Miles M. P. (ORCID:0000000246676829)↗

Prandtl number effects on extreme mixing events in forced stratified turbulence

Relatively strongly stratified turbulent flows tend to self-organise into a ‘layered anisotropic stratified turbulence’ (LAST) regime, characterised by relatively deep and well-mixed density ‘layers’ separated by relatively thin ‘interfaces’ of enhanced density gradient. Understanding the associated mixing dynamics is a central problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. It is challenging to study LAST mixing, as it is associated with Reynolds numbers $Re := UL/\nu \gg 1$ and Froude numbers $Fr :=(2{\rm \pi} U)/(L N) \ll 1$ ( $U$ and $L$ being characteristic velocity and length scales, $\nu$ the kinematic viscosity and $N$ the buoyancy frequency). Since a sufficiently large dynamic range (largely) unaffected by stratification and viscosity is required, it is also necessary for the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_{b} := \epsilon /(\nu N^{2}) \gg 1$ , where $\epsilon$ is the (appropriately volume-averaged) turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate. This requirement is exacerbated for oceanically relevant flows, as the Prandtl number $Pr := \nu /\kappa = {O}(10)$ in thermally stratified water (where $\kappa$ is the thermal diffusivity), thus leading (potentially) to even finer density field structures. We report here on four forced fully resolved direct numerical simulations of stratified turbulence at various Froude ( $Fr=0.5, 2$ ) and Prandtl ( $Pr=1, 7$ ) numbers forced so that $Re_{b}=50$ , with resolutions up to $30\,240 \times 30\,240 \times 3780$ . We find that, as $Pr$ increases, emergent ‘interfaces’ become finer and their contribution to bulk mixing characteristics decreases at the expense of the small-scale density structures populating the well-mixed ‘layers’. However, extreme mixing events (as quantified by significantly elevated local destruction rates of buoyancy variance $\chi _0$ ) are always preferentially found in the (statically stable) interfaces, irrespective of the value of $Pr$ .

Mechanics↗

Ocean Turbulence I: One-Point Closure Model Momentum and Heat Vertical Diffusivities

Since the early forties, one-point turbulence closure models have been the canonical tools used to describe turbulent flows in many fields. In geophysics, Mellor and Yamada applied such models using the 1980 state-of-the art. Since then, no improvements were introduced to alleviate two major difficulties: 1) closure of the pressure correlations, which affects the correct determination of the critical Richardson number Ri(sub cr) above which turbulent mixing is no longer possible and 2) the need to express the non-local third-order moments (TOM) in terms of lower order moments rather than via the down-gradient approximation as done thus far, since the latter seriously underestimates the TOMs. Since 1) and 2) are still being dealt with adjustable parameters which weaken the credibility of the models, alternative models, not based on turbulence modeling, have been suggested. The aim of this paper is to show that new information, partly derived from the newest 2-point closure model discussed, can be used to solve these shortcomings. The new one-point closure model, which in its simplest form is algebraic and thus simple to implement, is first shown to reproduce a variety of data. Then, it is used in a Ocean-General Circulation Model (O-GCM) where it reproduces well a large variety of ocean data. While phenomenological models are specifically tuned to ocean turbulence, the present model is not. It is first tested against laboratory data on stably stratified flows and then used in an O-GCM. It is more general, more predictive and more resilient, e.g., it can incorporate phenomena like wave-breaking at the surface, salinity diffusivity, non-locality, etc. One important feature that naturally comes out of the new model is that the predicted Richardson critical value Ri(sub cr) is Ri (sub cr approx. = 1) in agreement with both Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and empirical evidence while all previous models predicted Ri (sub cr approx. = 0.2) which led to a considerable underestimate of the extent of turbulent mixing and thus to an incorrect mixed layer depth. The predicted temperature and salinity profiles (vs. depth) are presented and compared with those of the Kolmogorov-Petruvsky-Piskunuv (KPP) model and Levitus data.

Canuto, V. M.↗

The Origin of Carbon-bearing Volatiles in Surprise Valley Hot Springs in the Great Basin: Carbon Isotope aud Water Chemistry Characterizations

There are numerous hydrothermal fields within the Great Basin of North America, some of which have been exploited for geothermal resources. With methane and other carbon-bearing compounds being observed, in some cases with high concentrations, however, their origins and formation conditions remain unknown. Thus, studying hydrothermal springs in this area provides us an opportunity to expand our knowledge of subsurface (bio)chemical processes that generate organic compounds in hydrothermal systems, and aid in future development and exploration of potential energy resources as well. While isotope measurement has long been used for recognition of their origins, there are several secondary processes that may generate variations in isotopic compositions: oxidation, re-equilibration of methane and other alkanes with CO2, mixing with compounds of other sources, etc. Therefore, in addition to isotopic analysis, other evidence, including water chemistry and rock compositions, are necessary to identify volatile compounds of different sources. Surprise Valley Hot Springs (SVHS, 41º32'N, 120º5'W), located in a typical basin and range province valley in northeastern California, is a terrestrial hydrothermal spring system of the Great Basin. Previous geophysical studies indicated the presence of clay-rich volcanic and sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age beneath the lava flows in late Tertiary and Quaternary. Water and gas samples were collected for a variety of chemical and isotope composition analyses, including in-situ pH, alkalinity, conductivity, oxidation reduction potential (ORP), major and trace elements, and C and H isotope measurements. Fluids issuing from SVHS can be classified as Na-(Cl)-SO4 type, with the major cation and anion being Na+ and SO4 2-, respectively. Thermodynamic calculation using ORP and major element data indicated that sulfate is the most dominant sulfur species, which is consistent with anion analysis results. Aquifer temperatures at depth estimated by both dissolved SiO2 and Na-K-Ca geothermometers are in the range of 125.0 to 135.4 oC, and higher than the values measured at orifices (77.3 to 90.0 oC). CO2 and homologs of straight chain alkanes (C1-C5) were identified in gas samples. Carbon isotope values of alkanes increase with carbon numbers. The 13C fractionation between CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon suggests they are out of carbon isotope equilibrium. The hypothesis regarding the formation of carbon-bearing compounds in SVHS may involve two processes: 1) Under high heat flow conditions which are caused by regional faulting and crustal extension, original high molecular weight organic compounds (kerogens) in clay-rich rocks decomposed to generate methane and other alkane homologs. 2) The SVHS area is associated with outflow structures, and distant from the heat source. Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) with sulfate at shallow depth (< 90 oC) is suggested as being responsible for the generation of CO2 in SVHS.

Fu, Qi↗

The Origin of Carbon-bearing Volatiles in Surprise Valley Hot Springs in the Great Basin: Carbon Isotope and Water Chemistry Characterizations

There are numerous hydrothermal fields within the Great Basin of North America, some of which have been exploited for geothermal resources. With methane and other carbon-bearing compounds being observed, in some cases with high concentrations, however, their origins and formation conditions remain unknown. Thus, studying hydrothermal springs in this area provides us an opportunity to expand our knowledge of subsurface (bio)chemical processes that generate organic compounds in hydrothermal systems, and aid in future development and exploration of potential energy resources as well. While isotope measurement has long been used for recognition of their origins, there are several secondary processes that may generate variations in isotopic compositions: oxidation, re-equilibration of methane and other alkanes with CO2, mixing with compounds of other sources, etc. Therefore, in addition to isotopic analysis, other evidence, including water chemistry and rock compositions, are necessary to identify volatile compounds of different sources. Surprise Valley Hot Springs (SVHS, 41 deg 32'N, 120 deg 5'W), located in a typical basin and range province valley in northeastern California, is a terrestrial hydrothermal spring system of the Great Basin. Previous geophysical studies indicated the presence of clay-rich volcanic and sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age beneath the lava flows in late Tertiary and Quaternary. Water and gas samples were collected for a variety of chemical and isotope composition analyses, including in-situ pH, alkalinity, conductivity, oxidation reduction potential (ORP), major and trace elements, and C and H isotope measurements. Fluids issuing from SVHS can be classified as Na-(Cl)-SO4 type, with the major cation and anion being Na+ and SO4(2-), respectively. Thermodynamic calculation using ORP and major element data indicated that sulfate is the most dominant sulfur species, which is consistent with anion analysis results. Aquifer temperatures at depth estimated by both dissolved SiO2 and Na-K-Ca geothermometers are in the range of 125.0 to 135.4 C, and higher than the values measured at orifices (77.3 to 90.0 C). CO2 and homologs of straight chain alkanes (C1-C5) were identified in gas samples. Carbon isotope values of alkanes increase with carbon numbers. The C-13 fractionation between CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon suggests they are out of carbon isotope equilibrium. The hypothesis regarding the formation of carbon-bearing compounds in SVHS may involve two processes: 1) Under high heat flow conditions which are caused by regional faulting and crustal extension, original high molecular weight organic compounds (kerogens) in clay-rich rocks decomposed to generate methane and other alkane homologs. 2) The SVHS area is associated with outflow structures, and distant from the heat source. Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) with sulfate at shallow depth (< 90 C) is suggested as being responsible for the generation of CO2 in SVHS.

Fu, Qi↗

A new non-eddy viscosity subgrid-scale model and its application to channel flow

To date, most large-eddy simulations (LES) have been carried out with eddy viscosity subgrid scale (SGS) models, with only a few exceptions that used the mixed model. Even though the assumptions behind Smagorinsky's model are rather stringent, it has been applied successfully to a variety of turbulent flows. This success is attributed to the ability of eddy viscosity models to drain energy from large scales, thus simulating the dissipative nature of turbulence. Most SGS models are absolutely dissipative, i.e. they remove energy from the large scales at every instant. However, SGS stresses may transfer energy back to the large scales intermittently; this reverse transfer or backscatter is especially important in geophysical flows and in transition. In a fully developed channel flow, there is reverse flow of energy from small to large scales near the walls, but eddy viscosity models are unable to account for this important feature. The dynamic localization eddy viscosity model of Ghosal et al. (1995) allows backscatter by co-evolving an auxiliary equation for the SGS energy; however, the computational cost is considerably larger than for conventional SGS models (Cabot 1994). In this report, a new non-eddy viscosity model based on local approximation of total quantities in terms of filtered ones is introduced; the scale similarity model of Bardina (1983) is a special case of this model. This procedure does not require the assumption of homogeneity, permits backscatter of energy from small to large scales, and is readily implemented in finite difference codes. The results of applying the proposed model to second order finite volume simulation of plane channel flow at high Reynolds numbers (Re(sub b) = 38,000) is described in this report. Greater emphasis is placed on the high Reynolds number flow since it provides a more rigorous test of the SGS model and its potential application. The results are compared to ones produced by the conventional and dynamic Smagorinsky models and the spectral LES of Piomelli (1993).

Shah, K. B.↗

Geophysical and geochemical evolution of the lunar magma ocean

There is increasing evidence that at least the outer few hundred kilometers of the moon were melted immediately following accretion. This paper studies the evolution of this lunar magma ocean. The long time scale for solidification leads to the inference that the plagioclase-rich (ANT) lunar crust began forming, perhaps preceded by local accumulations termed 'rockbergs', at the very beginning of the magma ocean epoch. In this view the cooling and solidification of the magma ocean was primarily controlled by the rate at which heat could be conducted across the floating ANT crust. Thus the thickness of the crust was the factor controlling the lunar solidification time. Heat arising from enthalpy of crystallization was transported in the magma by convection. Mixing length theory is used to deduce the principal flow velocity (typically several cm/s) during convection. The magma ocean is deduced to have been turbulent down to a characteristic length scale of the order of 100 m, and to have overturned on a time scale of the order of 1 yr for most of the magma ocean epoch.

Herbert, F.↗

Grad E x B effects on heavy ions in the magnetosphere

Following a theory briefing on the currents in a plasma of mixed species caused by the motion of charged particles, the paper presents a report on the observations of regions of the magnetosphere in which significant values of grad E (E being the electric field) can be inferred from measurements of E made on board the IMP 6 satellite using two pairs of long (91.5 m and 45.7 m) unfurlable antenna sensors. Electric fields were measured by applying double floating probe techniques to the antenna sensors, and grad E values of up to 1.4/1000 emu were inferred from the fluctuations in E along the orbit. The critical values of grad E for various ions, in a range of magnetic fields are compared, and the difference in the behavior of Ba+ ions which cause Ba+ currents in the subcritical and supercritical regions is discussed. The results show that the electric currents flowing in the E x B direction may cause secondary polarization fields on the barium cloud. The possible significance of these effects to natural geophysical phenomena is also pointed out.

Cole, K. D.↗

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Laboratory

The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) in Louisiana and Mississippi is an Upper Cretaceous source rock formation sandwiched between the sands of the upper and lower Tuscaloosa sections. The TMS is believed to be the source rock for underlying prolific Tuscaloosa sand formation. The TMS has an unproven estimate of 7,000,000,000 bbls of recoverable oil while its current total average production is about 3,000 bbls of oil per day in 2017. In 2013 and 2014, more than 80 wells were drilled horizontally into the TMS that were fractured using multi-stage fracturing technology. The results from this have been mixed, but recent production for several wells show an appealing initial oil production rate of more than 1000 bbl/day. The preliminary core analysis by industry partners and a few literature studies shows that the TMS is one of the most clay-rich and sensitive shales to water. Due to these and other technical problems, there is high risk for the economic development of TMS compared to other shale plays. The experiences of major industrial players in the TMS show the necessity of open and collaborative efforts to better understand the critical gaps in the development of this challenging and potentially highly economic shale play to enable more cost-efficient and environmentally-sound recovery from this unconventional liquid-rich shale play. The overall objective of this project is to form a consortium of science and industry partners to address the following six major objectives using scientific and technical approaches: 1. To improve wellbore integrity by better understanding the sources of the wellbore instability issues, proposing innovative mud and cement design for the TMS. 2. To improve formation evaluation using laboratory techniques for the evaluation of mineralogical composition, organic content, and produced-water chemistry as well as well log and geophysical analysis. 3. To determine the role of geologic discontinuities on fracture growth and shale creep behavior using digital image correlation technique. 4. To investigate the application of stable CO 2 foam and super-hydrophobic proppants for improved reservoir stimulation. 5. To better understand the nature of water/hydrocarbon/CO 2 flow in clay and organic-rich formation and the role of water/fluid interaction on recovery. 6. To prepare better socio-economic environment for TMS development by community engagement. Subsequently, the TMS virtual laboratory conducted testing and analysis of various properties of rock and formation fluids from the TMS, including but not limited to the following: Analyzing reports and logs to better understand the source of wellbore instability in TMS wells; Experiments to design a customized cement based on TMS requirements; Experiments to obtain the mineralogical and geochemical composition of TMS samples; Seismic analysis of TMS geophysical data to better predict total organic carbon (TOC) content and brittleness in TMS; Well log analysis to better estimate the TOC and geo-mechanical properties of TMS; Experiments on formation water to understand the chemistry of produced water; Experiments to determine the role of lamination and natural fractures on fracture propagation or rock deformation using digital image correlation technique in in-direct tensile tests, semi-circular bend test and creep tests Experiments to determine the stability and rheological properties of nanoparticle-stabilized CO 2 foam in TMS rock samples; Experiments to determine fluid dynamics in un-propped TMS fractures and the role of nano-coating of proppants on fluid dynamics in fractures with proppants; Micro-fluidics experiments to enhance the understanding of fluid dynamics in tight liquidrich pores with high clay content; Socio-economic studies to better engage communities in TMS development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Iron precipitation under controlled oxygen flow: Mineralogical implications for BIF precursors in the Archean ocean

Banded iron formation (BIF) deposition in the Archean ocean is thought to have been initiated by the oxidation of dissolved iron into ferric primary precursor phases that descended through the water column and were deposited on the seafloor. Effective interpretation of the trace element and isotopic composition of BIFs in the geologic record requires an understanding of the identity and longevity of those precursor phases. Temporal and spatial variation in oxidant concentration and ocean chemistry may have driven precursor mineralogy. Furthermore, precursor phases may undergo transitions during descent and burial. This experimental study follows the evolution of iron mineralogy, speciation, and redox state during the precipitation of iron under variable oxygen fluxes and in fluids containing different iron-complexing anions (chloride, sulfate, and phosphate). Additionally, suspensions collected after incomplete oxidation were anoxically aged to simulate changes to precursor mineralogy during descent below the seawater redoxcline. Results from X-ray diffraction, sequential dissolution, colorimetric determination of Fe redox state, and Fe K-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy showed that under all experimental conditions, intermediate precipitates collected before complete iron uptake contained mineralized ferrous iron. Purely ferric mineral assemblages were not observed until iron was removed from solution. In low-oxygen experiments, intermediate precipitates contained phases with stoichiometric Fe 2+ , including magnetite, vivianite, and green rust (GR). Chloride green rust (GR1) had more ferric iron than sulfate green rust (GR2) and more readily transitioned to magnetite via disproportionation. GR2 was stable over a broader range of iron uptake; magnetite appeared mainly as an additional oxidation product in sulfate solution. In high oxygen experiments, mineralized ferrous iron occurred in amorphous phases or as a non-stoichiometric component in ferric oxides; final ferric assemblages were less crystalline than in low-oxygen equivalents. Low concentrations of phosphate increased the total iron oxidation rate, but also increased the ferrous content of intermediate precipitates. The incorporation of phosphate stabilized GR2 and facilitated GR2 precipitation over a larger range of iron uptake. In higher concentrations of phosphate, vivianite and poorly crystalline ferric hydroxides formed in place of GR. Here, these findings suggest that over a range of possible ocean chemistries, mixed-valence phases may have been short lived but relevant precursors to BIF. Additionally, anionic chemistry and oxidant concentration are shown to influence the crystallinity and chemical resistivity of final ferric assemblages, affecting their reactivity during later anoxic burial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗