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DOE OSTI2024

Tools And Methods to Analyze Plant Outage Schedule and Assist Schedulers in Improving Outage Resilience

Refueling outages of nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considered one of the most critical phases throughout the plant lifetime. In such instances, tens of thousands of activities (e.g., maintenance, surveillance) are performed in a short amount of time (typically 2-3 weeks unless major backfitting or modernization projects are carried out) by a large number of crews (e.g., electricians, mechanics) that are hired as contractors. As a consequence, a plant outage can be expensive not only in terms of costs (e.g., contractor labor, material), but also in terms of loss generation since the plant is taken off the grid during the full outage duration (an indicative metric is about 1.2M$/day of loss of revenue). Thus, there is a continuous need to decrease the economic impact of outages on plant finances. This can be done by: decreasing the frequency of plant outages (e.g., from 18 to 24 months), reducing the time to complete the outage, and reducing the risk of outage delays. The Optimization of Outage Activities project under the Risk Informed Systems Analysis Pathway (RISA) sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program focuses on developing tools and methods to support NPPs with outage schedule optimization. The developed tools and methods are designed to analyze plant outage schedule with the goal of identify critical elements in the schedule that might pose a high risk of delays. These methods and tools can be considered resource-centric in the sense that they address outage challenges as a resource optimization problem. In this context, resources are either time and crews; outage delays occurs when either (or both) resources are insufficient to complete the set of tasks assigned at a specific time instant of the outage. This report provides details on how plant resources (time and crews) can be allocated in such a way that delays are minimized. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: the first one focuses on the time resource and how variability of the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays. The second one integrates available resources to assess when dailies activities should be performed such that the risk of outage delays are minimized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic Dispatch Optimization of Multi-Unit SMR Site

With the increase of integration of variable renewable into the grid, grid resilience can be compromised without flexible electricity suppliers. Flexible operation of NPP can expand the scope of integration of new nuclear power plants in regions with high share of renewables. It also provides opportunity to increase profits through participation in ancillary services. In this research, NuScale modules are used as the case study. NuScale is an integrated pressurized water reactor with thermal power of 250 MWth. Having multiple units can provide higher flexibility in changing power levels and supplying the grid with electricity all year long. Additionally, load-following might perturbate the ordered sequence of refueling (every 24 months for NuScale). To maintain the 2 year refueling cycles, the loading patterns will need to be adjusted in a year-to-year basis, resulting in additional unnecessary costs. Another solution is to find the optimal outage schedule. This will also shift the focus of the planned outage to a more optimized predictive outages and maintenance. Results from short-term optimization (i.e., daily participation in energy and ancillary services markets) shows that average commitment to regulation down ancillary service markets during late night and early morning hours can increase revenues. Participating in upward reserves during pre-work commuting hours and early evening hours can also generate additional revenues due to high ramp up of electricity demand. Having multiple units at a single site can also help operate flexibly. Results from long-term optimization show that daily fluctuation in electric power is usually handled by few units while other units operate on base-load profile. It is possible to combine base-load operation with flexible operation to extend component remaining useful life in some units and find optimal outage schedule for the units.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outage Forecast-Based Preventative Scheduling Model for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

Distribution system resilience enhancement is an important topic to ensure customers have access to power supply during extreme events. In fact, certain weather-related extreme events can be predicted ahead of time. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to predict grid outages using extreme weather forecasts, and how outage predictions can be incorporated into distribution system resilience enhancement. In this paper, a preventative scheduling model for distribution systems is proposed. The model targets at allocating resources, especially mobile responsive resources such as mobile backup generators and mobile energy storage systems, to prepare for an extreme event in the day-ahead context. To achieve efficient resource allocation and scheduling, a machine learning-based outage prediction module is developed to predict vulnerable or risky segments of the distribution system based on historical operating records and extreme weather event forecast. By integrating the outage prediction results into the scheduling model, optimal resource allocation can be derived to help distribution systems prepare for an upcoming event and improve resilience performance. A real distribution feeder in North Carolina, U.S. is used in the case study to validate the proposed approach.

distributed energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic Risk-Informed Maintenance Planning and Asset Management (Final Report)

The proposed work will provide a holistic framework for cost-minimizing risk-informed maintenance planning, including inspection, in light water reactors (LWRs). Specifically, we develop a two-tier framework that (a) coarsely minimizes the total maintenance cost during the remaining normal operating cycle of the plant prior to the next scheduled outage (long-term), subject to safety requirements, and (b) uses the outputs of the first model to develop a secondary optimization model to finely schedule maintenance activities to maximize the financial impact of these activities in the next week (short-term).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Analytics Methods to Measure Plant Outage Resilience

Every 18 or 24 months nuclear power plants (depending on plant configuration, pressurized or boiling water reactor respectively) undergo a period of outage where the plant is taken offline and a large number of maintenance and surveillance activities (that cannot be performed while plant is running) are performed in typically 2–3 weeks. Planning of a plant outage is very challenging since all the activities are required to be performed in the shortest amount of time given available resources (typically contractor crews hired for the duration of the outage). Consequently, plant outages can be costly due the actual loss of power generation and crew costs and, because of it, there is a need to maximize resource usage in the outage planning phase and reduce the risk of outage delays. This paper is addressing these needs by providing a set of analytical methods designed to analyze plant outage schedule and identify critical elements based on available resources (time and crews). These methods are based on natural language processing and optimization algorithms. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: one that focuses on the time resource and how variability in the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays, and one that minimizes the risk of outage delays by integrating available resources to assess when daily activities should be performed.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and design of DC-link capacitor in cascaded H-bridge multilevel active front-end converter

Medium-voltage grid-tied systems often use a cascaded H-bridge multi-level active front-end. In this converter, dc link bus capacitors play an important role in stabilizing the converter and enabling both active and reactive power injections. The present work provides analytical expressions for the capacitor current, which are essential for optimizing system design (especially capacitor size vs. lifetime). Then, the expression is incorporated into the grid connected bidirectional power system model. Consequently, this work contributes to the guiding principles to choose accurate dc link capacitor ratings against grid-side power delivery requirements. DC-link capacitors come with an expiration date which is dependent on the operating power and voltage values. Lack of information about the lifetime of the dc-link capacitor creates uncertainty in the duration of online operation of the converter, thus increasing the probability of a contingency outage. The lifetime of the capacitor can range from only a few seconds of online operation of the station due to under-sizing, to a compromised quality of power flowing through other solid state devices which may not have been designed for the transients that are caused by over-sizing of the dc-link capacitor. A better estimate of the lifetime of these capacitors can help maximize usage and maintain scheduled outages more efficiently, without disruption in service.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Building thermal simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on A Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy: Preprint

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging the power grid operation. In front of the extreme weather, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outage and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The predicted vulnerable lines of an outage prediction model tool are utilized to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers the schedule of repair crews and mobile energy resources. Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative ones for straightforward analysis. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage level brought by extreme weather and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

mobile energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outage Forecast-Based Preventative Scheduling Model for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

distributed energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outage Forecast-Based Preventative Scheduling Model for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement: Preprint

Distribution system resilience enhancement is an important topic to ensure customers have access to the power supply during extreme events. In fact, certain weather-related extreme events can be predicted ahead of time. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to predict grid outages using extreme weather forecasts, and how outage predictions can be incorporated into distribution system resilience enhancement. In this paper, a preventative scheduling model for distribution systems is proposed. The model targets at allocating resources, especially mobile responsive resources such as mobile backup generators and mobile energy storage systems, to prepare for an extreme event in the day-ahead context. To achieve efficient resource allocation and scheduling, a machine learning-based outage prediction module is developed to predict vulnerable or risky segments of the distribution system based on historical operating records and extreme weather event forecasts. By integrating the outage prediction results into the scheduling model, optimal resource allocation can be derived to help distribution systems prepare for an upcoming event and improve resilience performance. A real distribution feeder in North Carolina, U.S. is used in the case study to validate the proposed approach.

distributed energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dispatch analysis of flexible power operation with multi-unit small modular reactors

The relevance of nuclear power plant flexible power operation (FPO) is rising due to increased penetration of variable renewables. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) such as NuScale are envisaged to have multiple units on one site. This provides opportunities for coordinating FPO between units, but also introduces challenges as common services (e.g., refueling equipment) must be shared between units and fuel loadings may be standardized. It is therefore important to quantify whether FPO with SMRs is economically beneficial. Here, this paper quantifies the economics of FPO on different timescales to analyze refueling outages of such multi-unit SMRs. A 24-h price-taker profit maximization of SMR operation is first solved considering revenues from wholesale power and ancillary service (AS) markets. The results are then used to find the most profitable operation strategy over several years for multiple units at the site accounting for the physics and materials limits on NPP operation, including refueling outages. Results show a small but appreciable participation of nuclear into AS, contributing 4% of revenues. Due to the longer fuel cycle, over a decade of operation the units’ refueling outages drifted by 3 months, ultimately leading to refueling during summer.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Methods and Tools To Assess Robustness of Nuclear Plant Outages

Refueling outages are one of the most challenging phases in a nuclear power plant (NPP) operating cycle. Refueling outages are extremely costly for an NPP due to the large amount of required resources and because of lost revenue due to plant being off the grid. Outage durations have steadily decreased across the industry over that last few decades primarily due to improved planning and coordination, but there are still many plants that struggle to meet the performance metrics accomplished by other utilities. Schedule resilience is one of the issues. NPP outages require scheduling thousands of activities within 30 days on average. Despite detailed planning, once the outage starts, numerous emergent issues typically appear along with schedule delays requiring continuous replanning and adjustment. When schedule disruption occurs during an outage, plant staff make urgent efforts to recover but are often not able to maintain the planned outage duration. These outage delays can cost a utility several million dollars per day. Tools that could help outage schedulers create a more resilient schedule and allow them to optimally reschedule emergent work could significantly reduce outage delays. One key aspect of creating a resilient schedule is to have accurate estimates for activity duration. Another important outage scheduling capability is the ability to schedule emergent work with minimal disruption. This paper focuses on developing tools and methods to support NPPs with outage schedule optimization and it describes the initial development of tools to support outage management that leverage computational and machine learning methods.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

SMART-COM – Scalable Multi-Agent Adaptive Resolution Tools for Collaborative Outage Management

The purpose of this grant was to conduct scientific research and prototype applications to support NPP outage staff in their adaptive decision-making in efficient scheduling and resource allocation while preventing violation of safety technical specifications. The project contributed to scientific knowledge and engineering methods in (1) user interface design, (2) scheduling optimization and risk estimation, and (2) natural language processing that would benefit the nuclear power plants in minimizing schedule overruns and even unexpected shutdowns. The research team conducted site visits at a test reactor facility and an operating nuclear power plant to gather necessary information and inputs for research and development of a software application to support NPP staff in executing their outages. The final software application consisted of three modules. First, the natural language processing module supports interactive processing of technical documentation to build a database for outage staff to query non-permissible actions on system components. This module can alleviate outage staff from reviewing extensive documentation and minimize violation of technical specifications, especially in time-sensitive situations. Second, the schedule optimization module schedules outage activities and compute risk indices that outperform existing software and current practice. This module can reduce completion time of an outage that typically have too many activities for human to optimize based on current practice that does not apply the latest operations research. Finally, the visualization module presents progress and risk information of the overall outage and individual activities, as well as enabling access to the natural language processing and schedule optimization modules. This module can provide outage staff with situation awareness that are necessary to make risk-informed decisions in response to unexpected events during the execution of an outage.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tools and Methods for Optimization of Nuclear Plant Outages

Refueling outages are one of the most challenging phases in a nuclear power plants (NPP) operating cycle. Refueling outages are extremely costly for a NPP due to the large amount of required resources and because of lost revenue due to plant being off the grid. Outage durations have steadily decreased across the industry over that last few decades primarily due to improved planning and coordination, but there are still many plants that struggle to meet the performance metrics accomplished by other utilities. Schedule resilience is one of the issues. NPP outages require scheduling thousands of activities in a duration of around 30 days on average. Outage staff begin working on the schedule more than a year ahead of the outage start and make every effort to build a robust schedule. Despite the robust and detailed planning, once the outage starts, numerous emergent issues typically appear along with schedule delays requiring continuous replanning and adjusting. When schedule disruption occurs during an outage, plant staff make urgent efforts to recover but often not able to maintain the planned outage duration. These outage delays can cost a utility several million dollars per day. Tools that could help outage schedulers create a more resilient schedule and allow them to optimally reschedule emergent work could significantly reduce outage delays. One key aspect of creating a resilient schedule is to have accurate estimates for activity duration. Another important outage scheduling capability is the ability to schedule emergent work with minimal disruption. The Optimization of Outage Activities project under the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway (RISA) sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program focuses on developing tools and methods to support nuclear power plants with optimization of outage schedules. The goal of the outage optimization is the completion of all planned and emergent outage activities as fast as possible while maintaining highest level of safety. This report describes the initial development of tools to support outage management that leverage computational and machine learning methods developed in other RISA and LWRS projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Anomaly Detection in SCADA-Assisted OT Networks Using Ensemble-Based State Prediction Model

The cybersecurity threats of power system gradually grow due to the increased sophisticated interactions between Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) networks. False data injection attack (FDIA) that aims to compromise the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurement and disturb the system operation is one of such cyber threats. Such attacks can potentially lead to significant operational issues at the control centers and substations, and hence, result in severe physical consequences. To avoid catastrophic failure across the power grid resulting from these attacks, it is essential to arm the OT network with real-time vulnerability assessment tools. To this end, this paper outlines various drawbacks of the Purdue architecture model to defend against cyberattacks in the OT network. Furthermore, a novel ensemble-based state prediction model is proposed to detect cybersecurity anomalies in SCADA assisted OT networks. The proposed model uses control center level generation and load forecasts, scheduled, and forced outages, power flow solutions, and the substation level historical data. The hypothesis of the proposed scheme relies on the fact that additional control center and substation data can hardly be accessed and compromised by attackers. One of the vital features of the proposed scheme is an hour-ahead prediction of the operational feasibility of the SCADA measurement range at the control center and substation in real time helps in detecting anomalies in measurements across both substation and the control center.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Network reconfiguration and distributed energy resource scheduling for improved distribution system resilience

Electric utility companies work to restore as much load as possible after power outages caused by extreme weather events. In this paper, an outage management strategy is proposed to enhance distribution system resilience through network reconfiguration and distributed energy resources (DERs) scheduling. After a line fault, the proposed algorithm can identify radial network topology based on the rank of the incidence matrix. The reconfiguration is implemented by switching tie lines and sectionalizing lines. With the new network topology, an optimal DER scheduling problem is solved to minimize the accumulative cost for dispatchable DER operation and load reduction. Finally, the optimal topology that minimizes the accumulative cost is selected from all radial topologies. The computational workload is relatively low because only linear programming needs to be solved. Using the case studies of the IEEE 69-bus and IEEE 123-bus systems, we consider the worst-case scenarios in which faults occur in the upstream feeder. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed strategy allows for a relatively high percentage of the load to remain in service after line faults. Furthermore, compared with microgrid-formation approaches, the proposed strategy has advantages when applied to the distribution systems with several normally-open tie lines and low DER penetration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Reinforcement Learning From Demonstrations to Assist Service Restoration in Islanded Microgrids

Microgrids can be operated in island mode during utility grid outages to support service restoration and improve system resilience. To schedule and dispatch distributed energy resources (DERs) in an islanded microgrid, conventional model-based methods rely on accurate distribution network models and lack generalization and adaptability. Data-driven methods are promising for DER coordination but face practical challenges such as potential hazards to microgrids during online training and insufficient online training opportunities due to low outage rates. This paper presents a novel two-stage learning framework that builds on the deep deterministic policy gradient from demonstrations to identify an optimal restoration strategy. At the pre-training stage, imitation learning is applied to equip the control agent with expert experiences to guarantee acceptable initial performance. At the online training stage, action clipping, reward shaping, and expert demonstrations are leveraged to ensure safe exploration while accelerating the training process. In conclusion, the proposed method is illustrated using the IEEE 123-node system and compared with a representative model-based method and the standard deep deterministic policy gradient method to prove solution accuracy and demonstrate increased computational efficiency.

Du, Yan↗