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Latest Developments in PM Systems and Methods and their Application to WM Projects - 20364

How do you improve on an industry that is well established yet often misses the mark on key metrics demonstrating effective planning and execution of project scope, schedule and budget? With the increased complexity of DOE projects relative to either poorly kept records of what wastes are stored or the lack of specific knowledge relative to the waste concentrations/quantities, this is a question continually asked and investigated by many. In fact, in 2017, the GAO's report to Congress indicated that although the DOE has made some progress on its monitoring effectiveness and demonstrating progress criteria, these goals were not met and there needs to be more improvement and monitoring. This paper will offer some insights into the latest developments in project management methodologies and the possible application of these to waste management projects. Traditional data generated via a project schedule that utilizes critical path methodology (CPM) and additional earned value management (EVM) data needs to be accurate and enable the project manager to better understand the probability of project success. Although this data has readily been available on most large-scale projects, success as measured by various stakeholder groups including the client, project team, regulators, etc. is less than optimal. Therefore, an urgent need exists to explore how traditional project data (CPM and EVM) coupled with new methodologies allows for better planning and execution by the project team. Many new approaches/methodologies can even be used to predict the success of options prior to full implementation on the actual project. Three approaches/methodologies will be discussed: - Artificial Intelligence; - Change Management; - Blend of Traditional Management (Gantt chart) and Agile Methodologies. As market forces change, so will the direction of project management. The days of 'one size fits all' are no longer valid. A combination of predictive and adaptive approaches in the management of projects is essential to enable execution of project deliverables on time, under budget, and within the contractual scope. This paper is intended to provide the reader with insight to the close relationship of project management trends and business management trends, and to provoke critical thinking about what it means to align project management strategy with an environment of non-stop innovation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PERT ''C''

Computer program, PERT, provides method and technique for planning, evaluating, and graphically portraying in orderly related sequence the activities necessary to achieve a stated objective.

Source record↗

Validation of Nuclear Data Sensitivity Calculations by the MCNP PERT Card [Poster]

This work validates a method of estimating sensitivities that utilized the MCNP PERT card and tallies. The agreement of the PERT card and Brute Force results proves the validity of calculating nuclear data sensitivities by use of the MCNP PERT card, especially at higher energies. The overall agreement will be easier to understand once an uncertainty analysis is completed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Easy_PERT: a Python tool for writing PERT cards and parsing PERT card results [Slides]

This presentation begins by providing an overview of the PERT card. The PERT card uses differential operator method to compute first- and second-order tally variations due to density, composition, and reaction cross-sections. It is possible to have multiple PERT cards in one MCNP input deck to study tally variations for several sets of nuclides, reactions, and energy ranges. Furthermore, the METHOD option tells MCNP to calculate either the perturbed tally (METHOD=-1, -2, -3) or the change in the unperturbed tally (METHOD=1, 2, 3). In summation, a powerful use-case for the MCNP code PERT card is that it facilitates calculating tally sensitivities to nuclear data. Writing PERT card entries and parsing output MCTAL files is tedious and error prone. however, Easy_PERT makes use of existing tools (Faust and MCNPTools) to handle writing PERT card entries and parsing the output MCTAL files. The PERT card is early in the development process and planned upcoming capabilities include calculating sensitivities and combining MCTAL files from separate runs into one JSON file.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

(U) Using the MCNP6 Perturbation Capability for Source Nuclide Density Sensitivities

The Taylor series (differential operator) perturbation method, as implemented in the PERT capability in MCNP6 (Ref. 1), can be used for first- and second-order sensitivity analyses in fixed-source problems. Unfortunately, the PERT capability does not yet work with point-detector (F5) or pulse-height (F8) tallies. Also, the second-order Taylor series term lacks the cross terms that would allow the calculation of mixed sensitivities. Finally, the PERT capability does not compute any sensitivities involving the source in a fixed-source problem. When neutrons or gamma rays are emitted due to radioactive decay, the source rate density depends intrinsically on the nuclide densities in the source material. When the PERT capability in MCNP6 is used to compute sensitivities of a response to nuclide and material densities, those sensitivities do not include the effect of the source.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

(U) Calculating First-Order Sensitivities to Material Density and Composition in Fixed-Source Problems Using the MCNP6 Perturbation Capability

The Taylor series (differential operator) perturbation method, as implemented in the PERT capability in MCNP6 (Ref. 1), can be used for first-order sensitivity analyses in fixed-source problems.2 Sensitivities of a response with respect to material and nuclide densities can be used for efficient first-order uncertainty quantification. This report discusses how to compute sensitivities of material densities and compositions in order to propagate uncertainties using the standard uncertainty propagation formula.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Investigating Fission Reaction Rate Ratio Sensitivities [Slides]

One EUCLID project goal is to create a NEW capability in the MCNP6 code. This is being tested on reaction rate sensitivities and compared with SENSMG results. Reaction rate ratio sensitivities were added to EUCLID sensitivity library and investigated to determine value toward designing optimized experiments aimed at reducing compensating errors in nuclear data. The use of adjustment using multiple responses (and underlying/required capabilities) may benefit many applications. These include a tool for adjustment using multiple integral responses (ND adjustment and validation community); sensitivities of additional responses (ND adjustment and validation community); sensitivity capabilities (users in many application areas including safeguards/nonproliferation, criticality safety, etc.); and experiment optimization capability (applications which can benefit from integral experiments). Team is working to build and test future tools and to understand compensating errors

235U↗

Automating CPM-GOMS

CPM-GOMS is a modeling method that combines the task decomposition of a GOMS analysis with a model of human resource usage at the level of cognitive, perceptual, and motor operations. CPM-GOMS models have made accurate predictions about skilled user behavior in routine tasks, but developing such models is tedious and error-prone. We describe a process for automatically generating CPM-GOMS models from a hierarchical task decomposition expressed in a cognitive modeling tool called Apex. Resource scheduling in Apex automates the difficult task of interleaving the cognitive, perceptual, and motor resources underlying common task operators (e.g. mouse move-and-click). Apex's UI automatically generates PERT charts, which allow modelers to visualize a model's complex parallel behavior. Because interleaving and visualization is now automated, it is feasible to construct arbitrarily long sequences of behavior. To demonstrate the process, we present a model of automated teller interactions in Apex and discuss implications for user modeling. available to model human users, the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection (GOMS) method [6, 21] has been the most widely used, providing accurate, often zero-parameter, predictions of the routine performance of skilled users in a wide range of procedural tasks [6, 13, 15, 27, 28]. GOMS is meant to model routine behavior. The user is assumed to have methods that apply sequences of operators and to achieve a goal. Selection rules are applied when there is more than one method to achieve a goal. Many routine tasks lend themselves well to such decomposition. Decomposition produces a representation of the task as a set of nested goal states that include an initial state and a final state. The iterative decomposition into goals and nested subgoals can terminate in primitives of any desired granularity, the choice of level of detail dependent on the predictions required. Although GOMS has proven useful in HCI, tools to support the construction of GOMS models have not yet come into general use.

GOMS↗

Preparation of cyclohexene isotopologues and stereoisotopomers from benzene

The hydrogen isotopes deuterium (D) and tritium (T) have become essential tools in chemistry, biology and medicine1. Beyond their widespread use in spectroscopy, mass spectrometry and mechanistic and pharmacokinetic studies, there has been considerable interest in incorporating deuterium into drug molecules1. Deutetrabenazine, a deuterated drug that is promising for the treatment of Huntington’s disease2, was recently approved by the United States’ Food and Drug Administration. The deuterium kinetic isotope effect, which compares the rate of a chemical reaction for a compound with that for its deuterated counterpart, can be substantial1,3,4. The strategic replacement of hydrogen with deuterium can affect both the rate of metabolism and the distribution of metabolites for a compound5, improving the efficacy and safety of a drug. The pharmacokinetics of a deuterated compound depends on the location(s) of deuterium. Although methods are available for deuterium incorporation at both early and late stages of the synthesis of a drug6,7, these processes are often unselective and the stereoisotopic purity can be difficult to measure7,8. Here we describe the preparation of stereoselectively deuterated building blocks for pharmaceutical research. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate a four-step conversion of benzene to cyclohexene with varying degrees of deuterium incorporation, via binding to a tungsten complex. Using different combinations of deuterated and proteated acid and hydride reagents, the deuterated positions on the cyclohexene ring can be controlled precisely. In total, 52 unique stereoisotopomers of cyclohexene are available, in the form of ten different isotopologues. This concept can be extended to prepare discrete stereoisotopomers of functionalized cyclohexenes. Such systematic methods for the preparation of pharmacologically active compounds as discrete stereoisotopomers could improve the pharmacological and toxicological properties of drugs and provide mechanistic information related to their distribution and metabolism in the body.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Using Apex To Construct CPM-GOMS Models

process for automatically generating computational models of human/computer interactions as well as graphical and textual representations of the models has been built on the conceptual foundation of a method known in the art as CPM-GOMS. This method is so named because it combines (1) the task decomposition of analysis according to an underlying method known in the art as the goals, operators, methods, and selection (GOMS) method with (2) a model of human resource usage at the level of cognitive, perceptual, and motor (CPM) operations. CPM-GOMS models have made accurate predictions about behaviors of skilled computer users in routine tasks, but heretofore, such models have been generated in a tedious, error-prone manual process. In the present process, CPM-GOMS models are generated automatically from a hierarchical task decomposition expressed by use of a computer program, known as Apex, designed previously to be used to model human behavior in complex, dynamic tasks. An inherent capability of Apex for scheduling of resources automates the difficult task of interleaving the cognitive, perceptual, and motor resources that underlie common task operators (e.g., move and click mouse). The user interface of Apex automatically generates Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) charts, which enable modelers to visualize the complex parallel behavior represented by a model. Because interleaving and the generation of displays to aid visualization are automated, it is now feasible to construct arbitrarily long sequences of behaviors. The process was tested by using Apex to create a CPM-GOMS model of a relatively simple human/computer-interaction task and comparing the time predictions of the model and measurements of the times taken by human users in performing the various steps of the task. The task was to withdraw $80 in cash from an automated teller machine (ATM). For the test, a Visual Basic mockup of an ATM was created, with a provision for input from (and measurement of the performance of) the user via a mouse. The times predicted by the automatically generated model turned out to approximate the measured times fairly well (see figure). While these results are promising, there is need for further development of the process. Moreover, it will also be necessary to test other, more complex models: The actions required of the user in the ATM task are too sequential to involve substantial parallelism and interleaving and, hence, do not serve as an adequate test of the unique strength of CPM-GOMS models to accommodate parallelism and interleaving.

John, Bonnie↗

Laboratory Investigation of the Effect of Venusian Weathering on Mineral Spectra

Introduction: The recent selection of two missions to Venus has renewed the importance of deter-mining weathering reactions between minerals and the Venusian atmosphere, and the spectral signatures of minerals before, during, and after these reactions. The rate at which weathering reactions progress also constrain show long unstable minerals will be present on the surface (e.g., [1]), and enables the use of mineralogy as a constraint on surface age(e.g., [2-3]).In order to gain an understanding of how mineral compositions and spectra change with weathering, we have begun conducting experiments in a 1 atm experimental setup at Wesleyan University. This setup exposes minerals to the temperature and most abundant gases of the Venus atmosphere (CO2, SO2, N2).We conducted initial experiments using biotite, calcite, and montmorillonite in order to test our methodology with minerals that may be relevant to recording the history of water on Venus. Methods: Experiments were conducted in Thermo Fisher Scientific Lindberg/Blue M Mini-Mite horizontal tube furnaces at Wesleyan University. Experiments used natural mineral chips and powders, and were conducted at 1 atmosphere and 460 °C under pre-mixed gases provided by Air Gas(Table 1). The furnaces are set up in a flow through configuration so that solid samples are exposed to a fixed gas composition, and quartz glass process tubes were used in all experiments (1/4” diameter for experiment V4, ½” diameter for all others). These conditions were maintained for the du-rations listed in Table 1, at which point the furnace was turned off with gas flowing until the sample was cool enough to extract under N2and be placed in a desiccator for storage. Run products were carbon coated and examined using a Hitachi SU5000 Field Emission Gun Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) equipped with an EDAX Octane Pro EDS detector located at Wesley-an University. Visible-Near Infrared Spectroscopy (VNIR) analysis was performed on powdered samples under a nitrogen atmosphere using an ASD Fieldspec Proover the 350-2500 nm range. Powdered mineral samples were milled to a particle size of < 45μm and were spiked with an internal standard (Al2O3, corundum) to obtain quantitative mineralogy. Samples were analyzed using a Panalytical X’Pert pro X-ray Diffractometer (XRD), with an X’Celerator high speed detector and Co Kα radiation, with data collected at a step size of 0.02 ̊/minute step counting rate from 2 to 80 degrees 2θ at 45 mA/40kV in the X-ray Diffraction Laboratory located at NASA Johnson Space Center. Materials Data Inc (MDI) software suite, JadeTMv9 was used for Rietveld refinement to determine phase abundances and mineral identification by comparing XRD patterns to International Center for Diffraction Data (ICDD) database patterns. Table 1: Experimental matrix. Experiment Name Duration (Days)Gas Com-position (trace gas)MineralsV487SO2/N2(1.4%)Montmorillonite, biotiteV519SO2/N2(1.4%)CalciteV619CO2/SO2/N2(1.4% SO2, 2.1% N2)Montmorillonite, biotiteV828SO2/N2(1.4%)Biotite, calcite Results: Calcite. In both experiments, calcite was exposed to the SO2/N2gas mixture, and in both experimental run products, XRD analysis detected anhydrite, which is consistent with EDS measurements conducted in the SEM. The XRD analyses show greater amounts of anhydrite present after 28 days than 19, suggesting the calcite reaction progressed further given longer duration. Grain surface morphology as seen in the SEM also shows secondary mineral growth (Fig. 1). VNIR spectra show no change, as expected since anhydrite lacks spectral features in this wavelength range. Montmorillonite. Montmorillonite was exposed to two different gas mixtures, the SO2/N2mix and CO2/SO2/N2mix over different durations (87 and 19 days, respectively). VNIR analyses of both run products show a reduction in the 1441and1910 nm water features as well as a shift of the 1411 and 2011 nm features to shorter wavelengths that may indicate re-structuring in the crystal lattice and the production of amorphous phases [4]. XRD results are consistent with this, showing a shift of the 001 peak from 15Åto 10Åin both run products. The amount of X-ray amorphous material in the montmorillonite run products was greater than that present in the unreacted clay, being the greatest in the 87 day V4 experiment. No other secondary phases were detected in the run products, however sulfur was present in EDS analyses of powder samples.

A R Santos↗