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Results for “Prediction Chaos”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Predicting chaos for infinite dimensional dynamical systems: The Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, a case study

The results of extensive computations are presented in order to accurately characterize transitions to chaos for the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. In particular, the oscillatory dynamics in a window that supports a complete sequence of period doubling bifurcations preceding chaos is followed. As many as thirteen period doublings are followed and used to compute the Feigenbaum number for the cascade and so enable, for the first time, an accurate numerical evaluation of the theory of universal behavior of nonlinear systems, for an infinite dimensional dynamical system. Furthermore, the dynamics at the threshold of chaos exhibit a fractal behavior which is demonstrated and used to compute a universal scaling factor that enables the self-similar continuation of the solution into a chaotic regime.

Smyrlis, Yiorgos S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Climate Prediction Sees Future Despite Chaos: Researchers Outside NASA use NCCS Resources for Studies

The air on this mostly sunny January day is crisp and the wind is blustery. The morning's National Weather Service 6-hour forecast had accurately predicted these conditions for the Baltimore-Washington area and the 2-3 day extended outlook was almost perfect. The previous week, the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlook for the general trends for the' region was correct as well. However, no forecast could have predicted specific details about this day. It is 28.5 F in the sunshine bright enough for dark sunglasses, and windy enough to blow off a hat. Such details are impossible to foresee with any accuracy and are outside the scope of routine weather prediction. Equally difficult is accurately forecasting weather beyond about 2 weeks.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

Mundt, Michael D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

GenMod: A generative modeling approach for spectral representation of PDEs with random inputs

Here, we propose a method for quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensional PDE systems with random parameters, where the number of solution evaluations is small. Parametric PDE solutions are often approximated using a spectral decomposition based on polynomial chaos expansions. For the class of systems we consider (i.e., high dimensional with limited solution evaluations) the coefficients are given by an underdetermined linear system in a regression formulation. This implies additional assumptions, such as sparsity of the coefficient vector, are needed to approximate the solution. Here, we present an approach where we assume the coefficients are close to the range of a generative model that maps from a low to a high dimensional space of coefficients. Our approach is inspired be recent work examining how generative models can be used for compressed sensing in systems with random Gaussian measurement matrices. Using results from PDE theory on coefficient decay rates, we construct an explicit generative model that predicts the polynomial chaos coefficient magnitudes. The algorithm we developed to find the coefficients, which we call GenMod, is composed of two main steps. First, we predict the coefficient signs using Orthogonal Matching Pursuit. Then, we assume the coefficients are within a sparse deviation from the range of a sign-adjusted generative model. This allows us to find the coefficients by solving a nonconvex optimization problem, over the input space of the generative model and the space of sparse vectors. We obtain theoretical recovery results for a Lipschitz continuous generative model and for a more specific generative model, based on coefficient decay rate bounds. We examine three high-dimensional problems and show that, for all three examples, the generative model approach outperforms sparsity promoting methods at small sample sizes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

An effective field theory for non-maximal quantum chaos

In non-maximally quantum chaotic systems, the exponential behavior of out-of-time-ordered correlators (OTOCs) results from summing over exchanges of an infinite tower of higher “spin” operators. We construct an effective field theory (EFT) to capture these exchanges in (0 + 1) dimensions. The EFT generalizes the one for maximally chaotic systems, and reduces to it in the limit of maximal chaos. The theory predicts the general structure of OTOCs both at leading order in the 1/N expansion (N is the number of degrees of freedom), and after resuming over an infinite number of higher order 1/N corrections. These general results agree with those previously explicitly obtained in specific models. We also show that the general structure of the EFT can be extracted from the large q SYK model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven chaos indicator for nonlinear dynamics and applications on storage ring lattice design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. So, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven Chaos Indicator for Nonlinear Dynamics and Applications on Storage Ring Lattice Design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. Therefore, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

Krishnamurthy, V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence for temperature chaos in spin glasses

We study the field cooled magnetization of a CuMn spin glass (SG) under temperature perturbations. The T-cycling curves are compared with the reference curve without temperature cycling. There is a crossover from the cumulative aging region to noncumulative aging region as the temperature change is increased. The cumulative aging range scales with the chaos length, ℓ c , becoming comparable to the correlation length, ξ, at the crossover boundary. The extracted chaos exponent, ζ=1.1, is in agreement with theoretical predictions. Furthermore, our results strongly suggest temperature chaos exists in real SG systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chaos as the cause of randomness in tearing mode onset times in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario plasmas

The first evidence of widespread chaotic plasma dynamics relevant to the onset of disruptive tearing modes is found in DIII-D tokamak discharges. This evidence is obtained by calculating positive maximal Lyapunov exponents from Mirnov signals using the Rosenstein algorithm, implying the chaotic growth and/or rotation of magnetohydrodynamic modes in DIII-D [Luxon, Nucl. Fusion 42, 614 (2002)] plasmas. Such chaotic dynamics offer an explanation for the random tearing mode onset times previously observed in ITER baseline scenario discharges. Further, the Lyapunov timescales associated with this chaos could inhibit reliable prediction of tearing mode onset beyond the angular momentum confinement timescale; this constraint should inform the design of plasma control systems on ITER.

Chaotic dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tuning of strong nonlinearity in radio-frequency superconducting-quantum-interference-device meta-atoms

Strong nonlinearity of a self-resonant radio-frequency (rf) superconducting-quantum-interference-device (SQUID) meta-atom is explored via intermodulation (IM) measurements. Previous work in zero dc magnetic flux showed a sharp onset of IM response as the frequency sweeps through the resonance. A second onset at higher frequency was also observed, creating a prominent gap in the IM response. By extending those measurements to nonzero dc flux, different dynamics are revealed, including dc flux tunability of the aforementioned gaps and enhanced IM response near geometric resonance of the rf SQUID. These features observed experimentally are understood and analyzed theoretically through a combination of a steady-state analytical modeling and a full numerical treatment of the rf SQUID dynamics. The latter in addition predicts the presence of chaos in narrow parameter regimes. Here, the understanding of intermodulation in rf SQUID metamaterials is important for producing low-noise amplification of microwave signals and tunable filters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2004

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗
DOE OSTI2022

Approximating the linear response of physical chaos

Abstract Parametric derivatives of statistics are highly desired quantities in prediction, design optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the presence of chaos, the rigorous computation of these quantities is certainly possible, but mathematically complicated and computationally expensive. Based on Ruelle’s formalism, this paper shows that the sophisticated linear response algorithm can be dramatically simplified in higher-dimensional systems featuring statistical homogeneity in the physical space. We argue that the contribution of the SRB (Sinai–Ruelle–Bowen) measure gradient, which is an integral yet the most cumbersome part of the full algorithm, is negligible if the objective function is appropriately aligned with unstable manifolds. This abstract condition could potentially be satisfied by a vast family of real-world chaotic systems, regardless of the physical meaning and mathematical form of the objective function and perturbed parameter. We demonstrate several numerical examples that support these conclusions and that present the use and performance of a simplified linear response algorithm. In the numerical experiments, we consider physical models described by differential equations, including Lorenz 96 and Kuramoto–Sivashinsky.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1988

Recent insights into instability and transition to turbulence in open-flow systems

Roads to turbulence in open-flow shear layers are interpreted as sequences of often competing instabilities. These correspond to primary and higher order restructurings of vorticity distributions which culminate in convected spatial disorder (with some spatial coherence on the scale of the shear layer) traditionally called turbulence. Attempts are made to interpret these phenomena in terms of concepts of convective and global instabilities on one hand, and of chaos and strange attractors on the other. The first is fruitful, and together with a review of mechanisms of receptivity provides a unifying approach to understanding and estimating transition to turbulence. In contrast, current evidence indicates that concepts of chaos are unlikely to help in predicting transition in open-flow systems. Furthermore, a distinction should apparently be made between temporal chaos and the convected spatial disorder of turbulence past Reynolds numbers where boundary layers and separated shear layers are formed.

Morkovin, Mark V.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Topographic variations in chaos on Europa: Implications for diapiric formation

Disrupted terrain, or chaos, on Europa, might have formed through melting of a floating ice shell from a subsurface ocean [Cam et al., 1998; Greenberg et al., 19991, or breakup by diapirs rising from the warm lower portion of the ice shell [Head and Pappalardo, 1999; Collins et al., 20001. Each model makes specific and testable predictions for topographic expression within chaos and relative to surrounding terrains on local and regional scales. High-resolution stereo-controlled photoclinometric topography indicates that chaos topography, including the archetypal Conamara Chaos region, is uneven and commonly higher than surrounding plains by up to 250 m. Elevated and undulating topography is more consistent with diapiric uplift of deep material in a relatively thick ice shell, rather than melt-through and refreezing of regionally or globally thin ice by a subsurface ocean. Vertical and horizontal scales of topographic doming in Conamara Chaos are consistent with a total ice shell thickness >15 km. Contact between Europa's ocean and surface may most likely be indirectly via diapirism or convection.

Schenk, Paul M.↗