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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

To Fail or not to Fail: An Exploration of Machine Learning Techniques for Predictive Maintenance

Predictive maintenance refers to the ability to predict when machinery or systems need to be maintained. Making an accurate prediction is quite challenging given the costs for both over-estimating (unnecessary maintenance and reduction in availability of assets) and under-estimating (untimely breakdowns and possible loss of equipment or lives). To address these challenges researchers were able to develop new approaches for analyzing oil samples taken extracting samples from oil-wetted machinery that may provide information critical to developing predictive capabilities. We consider the problem from both supervised (though data limited) and unsupervised approaches and provide a first look into a data driven approach for identification of condition indicators. Through this work we identify a collection of candidate features that can form the basis of condition indicators for both a high level discrimination of failure vs. normal operation as well as a set for potential failure mode identification. Finally, we present an anomaly detection framework for detecting failures which can be a viable solution for an onboard analysis tool in deployed systems.

predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, Laserne↗
NASA NTRS1998

Automated System Checkout to Support Predictive Maintenance for the Reusable Launch Vehicle

The Propulsion Checkout and Control System (PCCS) is a predictive maintenance software system. The real-time checkout procedures and diagnostics are designed to detect components that need maintenance based on their condition, rather than using more conventional approaches such as scheduled or reliability centered maintenance. Predictive maintenance can reduce turn-around time and cost and increase safety as compared to conventional maintenance approaches. Real-time sensor validation, limit checking, statistical anomaly detection, and failure prediction based on simulation models are employed. Multi-signal models, useful for testability analysis during system design, are used during the operational phase to detect and isolate degraded or failed components. The TEAMS-RT real-time diagnostic engine was developed to utilize the multi-signal models by Qualtech Systems, Inc. Capability of predicting the maintenance condition was successfully demonstrated with a variety of data, from simulation to actual operation on the Integrated Propulsion Technology Demonstrator (IPTD) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Playback of IPTD valve actuations for feature recognition updates identified an otherwise undetectable Main Propulsion System 12 inch prevalve degradation. The algorithms were loaded into the Propulsion Checkout and Control System for further development and are the first known application of predictive Integrated Vehicle Health Management to an operational cryogenic testbed. The software performed successfully in real-time, meeting the required performance goal of 1 second cycle time.

Patterson-Hine, Ann↗
DOE OSTI2020

Markov Process to Evaluate the Value Proposition of a Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

To achieve high-capacity factors, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming operation and preventive maintenance programs for plant systems. Manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies, along with time-based replacement of assets irrespective of condition, have resulted in a costly, labor-centric business model. Fortunately, there are technologies that can eliminate unnecessary preventive maintenance activities by deploying risk-informed predictive maintenance, enabling the transition to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will enable plants to optimize and automate maintenance activities, leading to cost reductions since labor is a rising cost and technology is a declining cost. The implementation of scalable technologies and methodologies across plant systems and across the nuclear fleet is critical for successful deployment of a risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy at commercial nuclear power plants. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report describes the technical basis using the Markov Process to evaluate the value proposition for the risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy for the circulating water system. The plant process data from the Salem nuclear plant’s circulating water system is utilized to develop a Markov chain risk models and formulation to estimate the loss and gain in revenue based on plant availability. The outcomes presented in this report provides the technical basis for extensive quantitative evaluation of a scalable risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using a Large Language Model for Accurate Technical Language Generation in the Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Machine learning (ML) methods for predictive maintenance (PdM) are emerging as effective proactive strategies for diagnosing equipment degradation and enabling effective decision-making. However, explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Large language models (LLMs) offer a unique approach to tackle these challenges by explaining PdM, work orders, diagnosis results, and ML algorithms to users, who may not be familiar with ML and PdM in general. Moreover, by dynamically retrieving relevant information from technical documents and evaluating factuality of LLM generation, the accuracy and relevance of LLM generations can be improved. This work demonstrates using LLMs to explain the causes and consequences of circulating water system failures based on multiyear NPP work orders. This work tests the capability of multimodal LLM approaches in explaining the differences in the circulating water system from both the Salem and Hope Creek NPPs using both text and image resources. This work also demonstrates the use of multimodal LLMs in describing the diagnosis tab of a predictive maintenance software named VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER) to users.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Kernel Support Vector Machine based Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Pumps in Nuclear Power Plants

Multi-Kernel Support Vector Machine (MK-SVM) is a machine learning classification algorithm that can assist in the development of predictive maintenance strategies for nuclear power plant systems. Predictive maintenance can alleviate maintenance costs and enhance reliability of plant systems. In this work, MK-SVM is utilized for determining the health of the circulating water system (CWS) in a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heuristic Evaluation Methods Applied to a Predictive Maintenance Chatbot

The need for an accessible iterative approach for evaluating prospective artificial intelligence (AI)/ML based technologies in the nuclear industry is needed, given the nature of algorithms and rapid advancements. This paper explores existing heuristic design principles for user-centered design and evaluates them based on their relevancy and usefulness for evaluating AI/ ML based technologies. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed a machine learning software application called VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER), which is used to help users understand and engage with the tool to learn more about work orders, data used, predictive maintenance, and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Early user research studies used to access VIPER’s technology readiness level have occurred; however, there is room for further improvement of the software through heuristic evaluations along with other methods and user testing. This work describes the applicability of heuristic evaluation methods and cognitive walkthroughs to help ensure human readiness for prospective AI/ ML based applications, using VIPER as a candidate use case. This work supports industry in ensuring that prospective AI/ML based technologies are usable and useful for plant personnel at nuclear power plants, ultimately leading to their safe, reliable, and efficient use.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heuristic Evaluation Methods Applied to a Predictive Maintenance Chatbot

The need for an accessible iterative approach for evaluating prospective artificial intelligence (AI)/ML based technologies in the nuclear industry is needed, given the nature of algorithms and rapid advancements. This paper explores existing heuristic design principles for user-centered design and evaluates them based on their relevancy and usefulness for evaluating AI/ ML based technologies. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed a machine learning software application called VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER), which is used to help users understand and engage with the tool to learn more about work orders, data used, predictive maintenance, and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Early user research studies used to access VIPER?s technology readiness level have occurred; however, there is room for further improvement of the software through heuristic evaluations along with other methods and user testing. This work describes the applicability of heuristic evaluation methods and cognitive walkthroughs to help ensure human readiness for prospective AI/ ML based applications, using VIPER as a candidate use case. This work supports industry in ensuring that prospective AI/ML based technologies are usable and useful for plant personnel at nuclear power plants, ultimately leading to their safe, reliable, and efficient use. PowerPoint for conference that was reviewed in PRS and LRS PRS/CON-25-05379 and INL/CON-25-82946

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic Analysis of Condition-Monitoring-Based Predictive Maintenance in Power Plants under Market Elasticity

Condition-monitoring-based predictive maintenance can increase the power plant availability by preventing forced outages. However, the actual on-stream time depends on market elasticity and dynamics, which are affected by cost and penetration of other power generation technologies. This paper develops a systematic approach for the economic analysis of investment in condition monitoring technologies with due consideration of market elasticity. Focus is on corrosion monitoring in coal-fired power plants (CFFPs) since corrosion in high-temperature coal-fired boilers is a leading cause of equipment failure. Investment in sensor networks for measuring corrosion and operating conditions like metal temperature and concentrations of O 2 and SO 2 is investigated. The unscented Kalman filter is used to estimate corrosion in the waterwall section of the boiler under multiple sensor networks. Electricity produced by CFPPs in the future in the U.S. due to changes in availability under market elasticity is studied. Sensitivity of the incremental net present value to factors like the number, type, and cost of sensors is analyzed.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models

This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing PV Inverter Reliability Through Predictive Maintenance: Insights from Retrofitting of PV Inverters

Photovoltaic (PV) systems represent a cornerstone in the global shift toward sustainable energy generation, with inverters serving as the crucial link between solar panels and the grid. Despite their pivotal role, inverters are susceptible to failures, contributing significantly to maintenance events and operational disruptions in large-scale PV plants. This white paper investigates the importance and methodologies of predictive maintenance strategies that monitor the component-level pre-failure signatures on PV inverters. Through a comprehensive survey of literature and industry professionals, insights on preventive maintenance and retrofitting practices have been gathered. The expert elicitation helps shed light on common challenges and opportunities for improving PV system reliability, particularly inverter reliability. By addressing these challenges, the white paper aims to enhance the long-term viability and effectiveness of solar PV plants in the renewable energy landscape, contributing to the global transition toward environmentally friendly energy generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

PMDT: AI-Enabled Predictive Maintenance Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Our team made substantial technical progress on various fronts during the course of the program. Multiple milestones were geared towards demonstrating the feasibility of machine learning based predictive maintenance digital twins towards reducing O&M costs, whereas some other milestones actually focused on identifying technical gaps and developing technologies such as humble AI to provide necessary robustness to the ML-based models. We were able to demonstrate in many cases that Machine learning-based methods can be successfully adapted for Nuclear plant environments especially for remote monitoring applications. Detailed analyses were carried out with plant and full scope simulation data along with capabilities of enhanced analytics to assess and set realistic expectations on cost reductions in O&M. These assessments are paving the way for investments towards reactor design improvements as well project planning for SMR projects as they develop and mature in the next few years. Technology developed under this program got direct visibility to GE Hitachi and their utility customers and resulted in positive intents to deploy some of the elements from design phase. The project additionally resulted in several reports, publications, software and data generation that will be useful in deployment and O&M services for BWRX300 fleets.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Technologies Achieving Risk-Informed Condition-Based Predictive Maintenance Enhancing the Economic Performance of Operating Nuclear Power Plants

The primary objective of the research presented in this report is to develop scalable technologies that are deployable across plant assets and across the nuclear fleet to achieve risk-informed predictive maintenance (PdM) strategies at commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Over the years, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance (PM) programs, driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high capacity factors. A well-constructed risk-informed PdM approach for an identified plant asset has been developed in this research, taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), physics-informed modeling, and visualization. These technologies would allow commercial NPPs to reliably transition from current labor-intensive PM programs to a technology driven PdM program, eliminating unnecessary O&M costs. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report (1) reflects the results of work by LWRS Program researchers with PSEG, Nuclear LLC-owned Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Power Plants; (2) presents utilization of circulating water system (CWS) heterogeneous data and fault modes from both the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear power plant sites to develop salient fault signatures associated with each fault mode; (3) describes the integration of component-level predictive models into a robust system-level model enabled by the federated-transfer learning; (4) describes the development of physics-informed model of circulating water pump and motor; (5) develops a scalable risk and economic model; and (6) outlines the development of a user-centric visualization application. The outcomes presented in this report lays the foundation and provides a much-needed technical basis to focus on explainability and trustworthiness of ML and AI-based technologies, as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Cloud-based Applications for Enabling a Scalable Riskinformed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

The current light-water reactor fleet uses time-based maintenance strategies to achieve high-capacity factors. But to make nuclear more competitive in the energy market, these reactors could utilize emerging artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing technologies to achieve a cost-effective, predictive-maintenance strategy. This paper presents discussion and results on the application of cloud computing in the nuclear industry. The technical viability of cloud computing was analyzed using data from a boiling-water reactor’s safety relief valve. The models were hosted on three different systems: a local personal computer, Idaho National Laboratory’s high-performance computer system, and Microsoft Azure. The data were loaded and processed, and two types of models were trained in an A/B fashion. Based on the speed at which these actions were completed, it was determined that cloud computing affords adequate computing resources. Additionally, the computing power can scale with the demanded load. To enable cloud computing in the existing fleet, additional sensors, networks, and other requirements must be implemented to ensure a smooth transition from current maintenance strategies. However, the benefit is that the plants no longer need to manage their own servers, software, cybersecurity, and information technology support staff for in-house data analytics purpose. Many of these features can be offloaded to the cloud provider for a potential cost savings. Demonstrating how AI can improve the maintenance and operation of non-safety-related systems seems the likely path forward for implementing AI and cloud computing resources inside nuclear power plants.

azure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Cloud-Based Applications Enabling a Scalable Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy Across the Nuclear Fleet

The current light water reactor fleet uses time-based or failure-based maintenance strategies to achieve high-capacity factors. But to make nuclear more competitive in the energy market, these reactors could utilize emerging technologies in terms of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing to enable a cost-effective, predictive maintenance strategy. This report examines the feasibility of cloud computing for the nuclear industry’s needs in terms of the cloud’s computing capabilities, feasibility, and regulatory concerns. The technical viability of cloud computing was analyzed using one year worth of data from a boiling water reactor’s safety relief valve. Models were hosted on a local desktop, Idaho National Laboratory’s high-performance computer, and Microsoft Azure. Data was loaded, processed, and two types of models were trained in an A/B fashion. Based on the speed at which these actions were completed, it was used to determined that cloud computing has adequate computing resources. Additionally, the computing power can scale with the demanded load. To enable cloud computing in the existing fleet, additional sensors, networks, and other requirements must be implemented to ensure a smooth transition from current maintenance strategies. However, there is a benefit as the plant no longer needs manage their own servers, software, cybersecurity, and IT support staff. Many of these features can be offloaded on to the cloud provider. A comprehensive analysis was completed that showed the current annual cost of operating is more expensive than using cloud computing resources. Lastly, the regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. Currently, the NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. But since many of the AI applications are focused on non-safety related applications, such as balance-of-plant components, they will likely have little or no regulatory restrictions or necessary approvals. Demonstrating how AI can improve maintenance and operation of these non-safety related systems seems like the likely path forward for implementing AI and cloud computing resources inside nuclear power plants (NPPs).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗