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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF NOVEL MATERIALS BASED ON RELIABILITY INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT USING CUMULATIVE DAMAGE MODELING

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the 2019 ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain remaining technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. A modeling approach potentially applicable to item (b), based on cumulative damage modeling rather than failure rates, is briefly illustrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Removal Accounting for a Sustainable Future: Distributing CO 2 Flows in Multiservice Systems

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) systems are an integral part of sustainable pathways limiting global warming to less than 2.0 °C. When the sole purpose of CDR is capturing and storing atmospheric CO 2 , carbon registries offer detailed procedures to calculate the carbon removal credits. However, the registries do not address how to distribute CO 2 flows when CDR provides additional services. Standardized, transparent rules for distributing CO 2 flows among CDR services are required for the formation of efficient private and public carbon markets. The lack of such rules could result in double counting if those reductions are allocated to more than one service, decreasing the trustworthiness of carbon removal credits or deterring the delivery of an additional low-carbon service, thus limiting the economic viability and deployment of CDR. We examine allocation rules in carbon registries and carbon accounting guidelines, including their life cycle assessment (LCA) principles. We evaluate physical (mass-based) and non-physical (economic) allocation methods using a generic CDR system and find both to be unworkable. We then develop a mass balance (MB) approach which can reliably allocate captured and stored carbon (CSC) between carbon removal credits and other services based on the value CO 2 removal in those markets. This practical approach to allocation can be used in a transparent way to provide flexibility that would allow CDR services to capture the value of the multiple services they provide and, through this, promote the deployment of these sustainable alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relating Measured Component Damage to Assessed Component Reliability in Reliability Integrity Management (RIM)

There is currently no widely agreed detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. It may be possible to develop an approach to licensing such a plant that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev.0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. But that portion of the ASME code is written at a very high level, and there are fundamental technical challenges associated with applying it literally to licensing a real plant. In the RIM approach, applicants need to do the following (among other things): • Allocate target reliabilities to structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that collectively support the top-level plant safety and availability objectives; • Understand failure modes of those SSCs, and the degradation mechanisms that could lead to those failure modes; • Develop and propose a program of surveillances that will identify degradation prior to failure of SSCs; • Provide a means of reporting results, taking actions for anomalous or undesirable conditions, and give the regulator assurance of continued safe operations. Applying RIM in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice of relating physical observables to functional reliability of certain component types. Except where a given level of damage corresponds to a failed (or nearly failed) state, it is not practical to establish a precise quantitative relationship between physical observables and reliability. This paper focuses on managing risk of passive component failures based on observable damage parameters. A simple approach to cumulative damage modeling will be illustrated with a view to possible use in RIM applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybridization Assessment of Trybrid Pumped Storage Hydropower System—Part 1: A Case Study of Corral Summit

This report is a part of the deliverables for technical assistance provided to Cat Creek Energy for the Coral Summit Trybrid (Triple Hybrid-Pumped Storage Hydropower, Battery Energy Storage System, and photovoltaic solar energy) energy project. This report explores the operational benefits and challenges of hybridizing an open loop PSH (200MW) located at Mackay, Custer County, Idaho with solar PV (Ground mount 300MW and floating 40MW) and battery (720MWhr). This document reports two activities performed as a part of the hybridization assessment task 1) optimal resource allocation and energy management strategy, and 2) power quality and reliability assessment. From optimal resource allocation and energy management strategy (activity 1), the following key findings can be observed: • Conventional PSH (CPSH) with two reversible pump turbines and separate penstocks can provide required flexibility equivalent to that from two ternary PSH with separate penstock. With single unit CPSH, upper reservoir head cannot be maintained accurately, the variation of water level is rapid and pump mode flexibility is not available. These disadvantages can be overcome by single unit TPSH. However, using two CPSH units with separate penstocks also overcome these disadvantages with the formation of the hydraulic short circuit between two conventional units. • Flooding of the lower reservoir is a severe concern when considering continuous operation for black start. This limits the duration of continuous operation from PSH alone to around 50 hours. Due to the complementary PV and battery action, the duration of continuous operation and smooth power output can be extended. • An optimization problem is framed that maximizes the power output on an hourly basis while minimizing constraint violations and respecting seasonal variations of solar PV and load profiles . Two value streams, arbitrage and baseload generation are served by this profile. It was uncovered that for smooth power output during regular operation, PV curtailment will be required, or the battery capacity needs to be increased above 90MW to accommodate additional PV. From power quality and reliability assessment (activity 2) the following takeaway points can be observed: • The Trybrid, when integrated at the Lost River bus, and limited to 250MW in generation mode and -150MW in the pump mode, causes no violation of voltage or flow.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal operation of multi-plant steam district heating systems for enhanced efficiency and sustainability

Despite their crucial role in supplying heat and power to universities, industries, and healthcare facilities, many steam-based district heating systems rely on outdated control methods. Among these, multi-central plant districts are particularly challenging due to the complexities of coordinating multiple plants, optimizing load distributions, and managing system downtime. In response, new operational strategies are developed to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of steam districts while utilizing existing resources. These strategies include reducing plant operational pressure without compromising the reliable supply to buildings and optimizing load allocation across multiple plants. The load allocation considers boiler part-load efficiency, runtime, network losses, and building pressure set points, and is compared with traditional multi-boiler controls. To support this exploration, new dynamic Modelica models are developed. In addition, methods to reduce modeling complexities are incorporated, enhancing their suitability for practical applications. A holistic district-wide analysis using a real university case study demonstrates a 4.7% fuel savings by lowering boiler operational pressure from 900 kPa to 600 kPa, along with a 13.3% reduction in condensation losses across the distribution network. Furthermore, the load allocation approach results in a 13.1% reduction in fuel consumption during peak winter periods and 15.3% during shoulder periods, with corresponding decreases in carbon emissions and fuel costs. This approach can also save maintenance costs by reducing the boiler runtime by 49.6%. In conclusion, this research underscores the benefits of retrofitting aging steam district heating systems, offering immediate operational improvements by enhancing efficiency, meeting regulatory compliance, and extending infrastructure lifespans while delaying costly overhauls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned for Transmission Cost Allocation in U.S. Regional Markets

Expanding electric transmission can facilitate generator interconnection and improve grid reliability. Assigning costs for new transmission infrastructure is highly contentious because these costs can have a direct impact on energy prices and ratepayer bills. In this report, we evaluate what factors influence successful transmission cost allocation agreements. Through a review of legal disputes, existing cost allocation practices, and regional case studies, we identify potential strategies to minimize cost allocation disputes for future projects. The report also highlights the processes by which regions can update their cost allocation methods. While we do not consider cost allocation methods currently under development for compliance with FERC Order 1920, the trends and lessons learned identified in this report can inform discussions on effective cost allocation methods to reduce barriers for transmission development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability and resilience of environmental flows under uncertainty: reconsidering water year types and inconsistent flow requirements in California

Abstract Environmental water allocation in California is a complex legal process involving various government agencies and stakeholders. E-flow requirements can be based on annual runoff typologies called water year types (WYTs), which dictate water volume, timing, and duration. In this study, we examined hydropower licensing documents of the major water and power projects in the Central Sierra Nevada to catalog e-flow requirements by WYT. In this study case, we identify how WYT classification systems and categories vary across and within different basins. Additionally, we assessed the impacts of climate change on hydrology, the frequency of WYTs identified, and the reliability and resilience of e-flows using future projections (2031–2060) of 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). We then propose a potential adaptation strategy using a 30 year moving percentiles approach to recalculate WYTs. We identified eight WYT classifications systems were identified, and their WYT distributions statistically significantly changes across all GCMs, even though most GCMs indicate no statistically significant change in hydrology. Disparities in future impacts are observed among and within hydropower projects, with some river reaches showing negative impacts on reliability and resilience. The adaptation strategy can generally boost resilience and improve reliability, but simply updating existing WYT thresholds without flexible regulatory frameworks reconsidering WYTs and e-flows thresholds, may not yield substantial improvements. Challenges in managing e-flows in California within regulatory and hydroclimatic contexts are intricate due to the lack of standardized approaches, leading to inconsistencies and potential conflicts among stakeholders, that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Thus, we emphasize that targeted, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are crucial, besides the need for a harmonized and consistent approach to defining and applying WYT categories and methods and/or e-flow assessments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States

Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A System Level Comparative Study of SecondarySide Rectifiers for UAV Wireless Power Transfer in High-Altitude Airborne Energy Platforms

Wireless power transfer (WPT) systems for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) must satisfy stringent design requirements to ensure reliable operation under constraints related to efficiency, thermal performance, altitude, weight, and reliability, particularly in airborne and high-altitude environments. Thermal management becomes increasingly challenging at higher altitudes due to reduced air density, while reliability is strongly affected by the number and complexity of active components. The weight and compactness of secondary-side rectifiers directly impact UAV flight endurance and system integration, influencing energy consumption and payload allocation. These factors collectively define the practical feasibility of UAV WPT systems and guide rectifier topology selection. This paper presents a comparative and experimentally validated evaluation framework for secondary-side rectifiers under UAV-specific constraints. Three representative rectifier architectures are analyzed using component-based assessment of weight, thermal behavior, and reliability, together with experimental efficiency measurements obtained from a 1 kW WPT prototype. The results show that the single-switch active rectifier achieves the highest peak efficiency of approximately 93.2% and an overall efficiency of 91%, while also offering advantages in weight and reliability. The findings demonstrate how constraint-oriented analysis, combined with experimental validation, enables informed selection of secondary-side rectifiers for UAV wireless power transfer applications, including emerging airborne and high-altitude platforms.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bridging Control and Deployment: A Cross-Layer Analysis of Scalable Building Cluster Control

Building cluster control has emerged as a promising approach for enabling flexible and coordinated operation of distributed building systems, yet its transition from pilot demonstrations to routine grid-interactive operation remains limited. This paper argues that this gap cannot be explained by control algorithms alone. Instead, it arises from interacting barriers in communication infrastructure, data and semantic interoperability, uncertainty management, stakeholder participation, market design, and policy support. Accordingly, the paper reviews both technical and non-technical barriers to building cluster control. Technical challenges include heterogeneous devices and protocols, communication latency and reliability, distributed decision-making, and uncertainty propagation across aggregated loads. Non-technical barriers include user participation, stakeholder coordination, incentive allocation, and data governance. Existing solution approaches are synthesized, including semantic interoperability frameworks, edge and hierarchical communication architectures, distributed and transactive control strategies, uncertainty-aware optimization, policy mechanisms, and market reforms. Based on this analysis, two research directions are identified: testing infrastructures that can evaluate control performance under realistic multi-building conditions, and abstraction methods that allow building clusters to interact with other energy sectors through standardized flexibility representations. Overall, the paper provides a structured review of how building cluster control can move from isolated demonstrations toward reproducible, market-compatible, and grid-relevant implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an Introspective Dynamic Model of Globally Distributed Computing Infrastructures

Large-scale scientific collaborations like ATLAS, Belle II, CMS, DUNE, and others involve hundreds of research institutes and thousands of researchers spread across the globe. These experiments generate petabytes of data, with volumes soon expected to reach exabytes. Consequently, there is a growing need for computation, including structured data processing from raw data to consumer-ready derived data, extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaigns, and a wide range of end-user analysis. To manage these computational and storage demands, centralized workflow and data management systems are implemented. However, decisions regarding data placement and payload allocation are often made disjointly and via heuristic means. A significant obstacle in adopting more effective heuristic or AI-driven solutions is the absence of a quick and reliable introspective dynamic model to evaluate and refine alternative approaches. In this study, we aim to develop such an interactive system using real-world data. By examining job execution records from the PanDA workflow management system, we have pinpointed key performance indicators such as queuing time, error rate, and the extent of remote data access. The dataset includes five months of activity. Additionally, we are creating a generative AI model to simulate time series of payloads, which incorporate visible features like category, event count, and submitting group, as well as hidden features like the total computational load—derived from existing PanDA records and computing site capabilities. These hidden features, which are not visible to job allocators, whether heuristic or AI-driven, influence factors such as queuing times and data movement.

kilic, Ozgur Ozan [Brookhaven National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process- Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process- based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data- constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process- based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam- derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field- measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter- response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post- calibration GPP R2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

Carbon↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data

A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliable Integration of AI Data Centers at Scale – Analysis, Modeling and Synthetic Data Generation

This report analyzes the power consumption of large dynamic digital loads using the open-source MIT supercloud and SURF datasets. With an emphasis on the MIT data, we calculate important power consumption characteristics to help system operators improve generation planning and resource allocation. We also introduce a rudimentary model for generating synthetic load profiles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗