Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Stochastic Modeling and Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models using knowledge-based techniques

Over the past three decades, computer-based simulation models have proven themselves to be cost-effective alternatives to the more structured deterministic methods of systems analysis. During this time, many techniques, tools and languages for constructing computer-based simulation models have been developed. More recently, advances in knowledge-based system technology have led many researchers to note the similarities between knowledge-based programming and simulation technologies and to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based programming techniques to simulation modeling. The integration of conventional simulation techniques with knowledge-based programming techniques is discussed to provide a development environment for constructing knowledge-based simulation models. A comparison of the techniques used in the construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models and those used in the construction of knowledge-based systems provides the requirements for the environment. This leads to the design and implementation of a knowledge-based simulation development environment. These techniques were used in the construction of several knowledge-based simulation models including the Advanced Launch System Model (ALSYM).

Williams, M. Douglas↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Framework for the Optimization of Discrete-Event Simulation Models

With the growing use of computer modeling and simulation, in all aspects of engineering, the scope of traditional optimization has to be extended to include simulation models. Some unique aspects have to be addressed while optimizing via stochastic simulation models. The optimization procedure has to explicitly account for the randomness inherent in the stochastic measures predicted by the model. This paper outlines a general purpose framework for optimization of terminating discrete-event simulation models. The methodology combines a chance constraint approach for problem formulation, together with standard statistical estimation and analyses techniques. The applicability of the optimization framework is illustrated by minimizing the operation and support resources of a launch vehicle, through a simulation model.

Joshi, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simulation of Inflated Pahoehoe Lava Flows

A new stochastic model simulates late-stage pahoehoe lobes where random processes dominate emplacement. The model prescribes probabilistic rules for determining where and when parcels of lava move within the lobe. Unlike a classical Brownian motion random walk, the model allows individual parcels to remain dormant, but fluid, for multiple time steps. The randomness of parcel volume transfers within the lobe interior as well as at the margins qualitatively reflects inflation processes observed in the field. The fraction of inflated volume to total volume increases with the total volume, with greater than 75% of the lobe volume contributed through inflation for typical lobes. The influence on planform shape and topographic cross-sectional profiles of total volume, source area and shape, topographic confinement, and sequential breakouts at the lobe margins, are all explored with the stochastic model. Each of these factors influences the overall lobe thickness and width. The model provides a means for assessing the relative importance of these processes through comparisons with field data. For the first time, Gaussian and parabolic functions are quantitatively fit to field measurements of pahoehoe lobes. Both functional forms provide adequate description of the cross-sectional flow shapes. When comparing simulated lobes to field data, sequential breakouts at the lobe margins are found to be an important process controlling the final topographic distribution of observed pahoehoe lobes.

modeling↗
NASA NTRS1971

Simulating the operations of the reusable shuttle space vehicle.

A stochastic simulation model has been developed using the General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS) II language to analyze the operations of a fleet of Shuttle space vehicles. This paper presents the approach used in developing the model, results obtained from some of the analyses performed to date, and an interpretation of the results as they were presented to management personnel.

Schlagheck, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Reliable automatic plan selection for visual robotic positioning

Reliability analysis techniques developed for robotics are applied to a six-DOF (degree-of-freedom) visual positioning system. The task is to measure an object's pose and then grip the object reliably subject to time and accuracy constraints. Errors due to pixel truncation in the stadimetric vision system, forward kinematic and inverse kinematic uncertainties, and joint position and velocity noise are stochastically modeled. Simulation results for PUMA 500 kinematic and dynamic characteristics are presented.

Mcinroy, John E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Versatile stochastic model for predictive KMC simulation of fcc metal nanostructure evolution with realistic kinetics

Stochastic lattice-gas models provide the natural framework for analysis of the surface diffusion-mediated evolution of crystalline metal nanostructures on the appropriate time scale (often 10 1 –10 4 s) and length scale. Model behavior can be precisely assessed by kinetic Monte Carlo simulation, typically incorporating a rejection-free algorithm to efficiently handle the broad range of Arrhenius rates for hopping of surface atoms. The model should realistically prescribe these rates, or the associated barriers, for a diversity of local surface environments. However, commonly used generic choices for barriers fail, even qualitatively, to simultaneously describe diffusion for different low-index facets, for terrace vs step edge diffusion, etc. We introduce an alternative Unconventional Interaction–Conventional Interaction formalism to prescribe these barriers, which, even with few parameters, can realistically capture most aspects of behavior. Here, the model is illustrated for single-component fcc metal systems, mainly for the case of Ag. It is quite versatile and can be applied to describe both the post-deposition evolution of 2D nanostructures in homoepitaxial thin films (e.g., reshaping and coalescence of 2D islands) and the post-synthesis evolution of 3D nanocrystals (e.g., reshaping of nanocrystals synthesized with various faceted non-equilibrium shapes back to 3D equilibrium Wulff shapes).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2017

Environmental Barrier Coating Fracture, Fatigue and High-Heat-Flux Durability Modeling and Stochastic Progressive Damage Simulation

Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.

Mechanical creep and fatigue loading condition↗
NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo simulation of launchsite winds at Kennedy Space Center

This paper develops and validates an easily implemented model for simulating random horizontal wind profiles over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The model is intended for use in Monte Carlo launch vehicle simulations of the type employed in mission planning, where the large number of profiles needed for statistical fidelity of such simulation experiments makes the use of actual wind measurements impractical. The model is based on measurements made at KSC and represents vertical correlations by a decaying exponential model which is parameterized via least-squares parameter optimization against the sample data. The validity of the model is evaluated by comparing two Monte Carlo simulations of an asymmetric, heavy-lift launch vehicle. In the first simulation, the measured wind profiles are used, while in the second, the wind profiles are generated using the stochastic model. The simulations indicate that the use of either the measured or simulated wind field results in similar launch vehicle performance.

Queen, Eric M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Computational technology for flight vehicles; Proceedings of the Symposium, Washington, DC, Nov. 5-7, 1990

Recent advances in computational fluid mechanics are discussed in reviews and reports. Sections are devoted to (1) the modeling of local phenomena and edge effects in solids, (2) stochastic modeling and simulation of fracture toughness, and (3) partitioning strategy and new finite elements. Particular attention is given to global and local finite-element/spectral-boundary-element techniques for failure analysis, simulations of microfracture in metal-matrix composites, fatigue analysis of cracked anisotropic plates under stochastic loading, mathematical modeling for the analysis of nonlinear aircraft dynamics, physical and mathematical modeling of wave propagation in the Ariane 5 VEB structure, partitioning based on symmetry transformations, an FEM approach to adaptive reliability assurance, and time-domain FEMs for the large rotational dynamics of multibody systems.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1991

Electron distribution functions in electric field environments

The amount of current carried by an electric discharge in its early stages of growth is strongly dependent on its geometrical shape. Discharges with a large number of branches, each funnelling current to a common stem, tend to carry more current than those with fewer branches. The fractal character of typical discharges was simulated using stochastic models based on solutions of the Laplace equation. Extension of these models requires the use of electron distribution functions to describe the behavior of electrons in the undisturbed medium ahead of the discharge. These electrons, interacting with the electric field, determine the propagation of branches in the discharge and the way in which further branching occurs. The first phase in the extension of the referenced models , the calculation of simple electron distribution functions in an air/electric field medium, is discussed. Two techniques are investigated: (1) the solution of the Boltzmann equation in homogeneous, steady state environments, and (2) the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Distribution functions calculated from both techniques are illustrated. Advantages and disadvantages of each technique are discussed.

Rudolph, Terence H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The role of the droplet interface in controlling the multiphase oxidation of thiosulfate by ozone

Predicting reaction kinetics in aqueous microdroplets, including aerosols and cloud droplets, is challenging due to the probability that the underlying reaction mechanism can occur both at the surface and in the interior of the droplet. Additionally, few studies directly measure the surface activities of doubly charged anions, despite their prevalence in the atmosphere. Here, deep-UV second harmonic generation spectroscopy is used to probe surface affinities of the doubly charged anions thiosulfate, sulfate, and sulfite, key species in the thiosulfate ozonation reaction mechanism. Thiosulfate has an appreciable surface affinity with a measured Gibbs free energy of adsorption of -7.3 ± 2.5 kJ mol -1 in neutral solution, while sulfate and sulfite exhibit negligible surface propensity. The Gibbs free energy is combined with data from liquid flat jet ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy to constrain the concentration of thiosulfate at the surface in our model. Stochastic kinetic simulations leveraging these novel measurements show that the primary reaction between thiosulfate and ozone occurs at the interface and in the bulk, with the contribution of the interface decreasing from ~65% at pH 5 to ~45% at pH 13. Additionally, sulfate, the major product of thiosulfate ozonation and an important species in atmospheric processes, can be produced by two different pathways at pH 5, one with a contribution from the interface of >70% and the other occurring predominantly in the bulk (>98%). The observations in this work have implications for mining wastewater remediation, atmospheric chemistry, and understanding other complex reaction mechanisms in multiphase environments. Future interfacial or microdroplet/aerosol chemistry studies should carefully consider the role of both surface and bulk chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bill Savings vs. Backup Power: Evaluating operational tradeoffs for home solar+storage systems [Slides]

This study explores tradeoffs between the use of home solar+storage systems for backup power versus day-to-day utility bill savings. The study focuses specifically on the “reserve setting” available with most home battery storage systems, which allow the customer to maintain some minimum level of storage in reserve in case of an unforeseen power interruption. The more capacity that is held in reserve, the greater the customer’s ability to ride-through possible power interruptions, but less capacity is then available to manage utility bills on a day-to-day basis. This study evaluates this operational tradeoff across a diverse set of locations and residential electricity tariff structures, relying on Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO model to stochastically simulate power interruption events, and exploring a range of sensitivities, including variations in customer value of lost load (VoLL), interruption frequency, and other key drivers. The results show that, in most circumstances, the opportunity cost of holding storage capacity in reserve, in terms of foregone bill saving, tends to outweigh any gains in reliability value associated with mitigated power interruptions. This finding is robust across tariff structures and across most of the sensitivities considered, including those related to rate level, customer load level, and storage sizing. There are a limited set of circumstances where raising the reserve setting improves the overall customer value (comprised of bill savings plus reliability value). Specifically, that exception occurs when all of the following conditions apply: (a) the customer resides in a location with exceptionally poor reliability, (b) the customer has exceptionally high VoLL; (c) the customer is on a net billing rate or on a TOU rate that allows grid discharging but not grid charging; and (d), depending on the location, the price arbitrage differential on that rate is relatively small. In all other circumstances analyzed, total customer value declines with reserve level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Communications satellite business ventures - Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies

An economic evaluation and planning procedure which assesses the effects of various policies on fixed satellite business ventures is described. The procedure is based on a stochastic financial simulation model, the Domsat II, which evaluates spacecraft reliability, market performance, and cost uncertainties. The application of the Domsat II model to the assessment of NASA's ion thrusters for on-orbit propulsion and GaAs solar cell technology is discussed. The effects of insurance rates and the self-insurance option on the financial performance of communication satellite business ventures are investigated. The selection of a transportation system for placing the satellites into GEO is analyzed.

Greenberg, J. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational Modeling, Simulation, and Potential Applications of Optical Stochastic Cooling

With the rising demand for intense particles beams, much research is being conducted in the area of particle beam cooling. One of these methods, called Stochastic Cooling (SC) (developed at CERN in the 1970's), delivered a feedback method to improve the quality and lifetime of circulating proton beams by reducing their 6D phase-space and has been widely implemented in a number of hadron machines. However, traditional stochastic cooling schemes are limited by the bandwidth of microwave frequency systems. Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC) is a promising extension of the stochastic cooling beam cooling technique. OSC instead uses optical wavelengths which allows for improved control and increased cooling but creates its own technical challenges. This lays out work conducted toward the experimental demonstration of OSC at Fermilab's Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) storage ring. This includes the design and characterization of parts of the optical delay system, the development and validation of a high-fidelity computational model of the OSC process, and the investigations into possible applications of the OSC mechanism to advanced beam manipulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of effects of copropagated and precomputed atmosphere profiles on Monte Carlo trajectory simulation

A realization of a stochastic atmosphere model for use in simulations is presented. The model provides pressure, density, temperature, and wind velocity as a function of latitude, longitude, and altitude, and is implemented in a three degree of freedom simulation package. This implementation is used in the Monte Carlo simulation of an aeroassisted orbital transfer maneuver and results are compared to those of a more traditional approach.

Queen, Eric M.↗