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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of structurally diverse simulation models for prediction of epidemic outcomes caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) pathogens pose substantial challenges for epidemic control due to their ability to generate new infection foci at great distances. While various modeling approaches have been developed to understand and manage such outbreaks, little work has compared how models of different structures behave under shared conditions. Here, in this study, we compare four structurally distinct epidemiological models — EPIMUL, GEMF, PoPS, and Warwick — each adapted to simulate the spread of wheat stripe rust (WSR), a wind-dispersed LDD pathogen, under identical epidemiological parameters and dispersal kernel. Using data from a controlled field experiment, we evaluate the ability of each model to replicate disease prevalence under nine intervention scenarios that vary in timing and culling area. While the models differ substantially in design — ranging from spatial grid-based to network-based and raster-based frameworks — the shared dispersal kernel allowed for close alignment in their predictions. All models accurately captured general epidemic trends, particularly the strong effect of early intervention on disease suppression. We qualitatively compared their behavioral responses across scenarios and also evaluated an ensemble prediction by averaging across model outputs. Our findings highlight how integrating shared epidemiological components into distinct modeling frameworks can improve consistency and accuracy, while reinforcing the importance of early culling in managing LDD pathogen outbreaks.

Dispersal kernel↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly averages of ED2 model simulations initialized with airborne lidar structure, Jan 1981-Dec 2018, Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation and forest degradation (selective logging, fires, fragmentation) have impacted nearly 40% of the original extent of the Brazilian Amazon, and have markedly impacted forest structure across the region. To date, few studies analysed how shifts in forest structure from degradation influence the forest sensitivity to climate extremes, because of the complex interactions between forest structure and micro-environmental conditions. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a series of simulations across the Brazilian Amazon using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), using observed forest structure derived from 541 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) and two scenarios representing forest recovery and expansion of degradation to investigate how shifts in forest structure impact ecosystem function under near-average and extreme climate conditions, as part of the manuscript Longo et al 2025 "Degradation and Deforestation Increase the Sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to Climate Extremes". This dataset provides the output results from the ED2 model simulations for the three simulations at monthly time scales, in NetCDF format. For all simulations, we used bias-corrected hourly reanalyses (WFDE5) for most meteorological drivers, except for precipitation, which was obtained from CHIRPS. The meteorological drivers used in the study span 38 years (Jan 1981–Dec 2018). The output results correspond to the last 38 years of simulation (one full cycle of meteorological drivers), in which ED2 simulations used static stand structure (i.e., the forest structure was held constant). The following files are provided:ED2_emean_Global_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Control simulation. The forest structure was obtained from the airborne lidar.ED2_emean_Global_R005_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l1f0.nc. This corresponds to the Degraded simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that expanded deforestation and selective logging across the Amazon.ED2_emean_Global_R006_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Recovery simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that completely halted deforestation and degradation, allowing degraded forests to recover for 38 years.We also provide file ED2_zones_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc, which classifies each grid cell into zones used in the reference manuscript: 1: Southeast. 2: South. 3: West. 4: Central. 5: Northeast. 6: North. 7: Northwest". Index 0 corresponds to grid cells excluded from sub-region analyses because they were dominated by flooded forests, deforestation, and naturally non-forest vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of layer bending on montmorillonite hydration and structure from molecular simulation

Conceptual models of smectite hydration include planar (flat) clay layers that undergo stepwise expansion as successive monolayers of water molecules fill the interlayer regions. However, X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies indicate the presence of interstratified hydration states, suggesting non-uniform interlayer hydration in smectites. Additionally, recent theoretical studies have shown that clay layers can adopt bent configurations over nanometer-scale lateral dimensions with minimal effect on mechanical properties. Therefore, in this study we used molecular simulations to evaluate structural properties and water adsorption isotherms for montmorillonite models composed of bent clay layers in mixed hydration states. Results are compared with models consisting of planar clay layers with interstratified hydration states (e.g. 1W–2W). The small degree of bending in these models (up to 1.5 Å of vertical displacement over a 1.3 nm lateral dimension) had little or no effect on bond lengths and angle distributions within the clay layers. Except for models that included dry states, porosities and simulated water adsorption isotherms were nearly identical for bent or flat clay layers with the same averaged layer spacing. Similar agreement was seen with Na- and Ca-exchanged clays. In conclusion, while the small bent models did not retain their configurations during unconstrained molecular dynamics simulation with flexible clay layers, we show that bent structures are stable at much larger length scales by simulating a 41.6×7.1 nm 2 system that included dehydrated and hydrated regions in the same interlayer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

A structural uncertainty validation study for a large-scale, fire-engulfed, elevated object subjected to crosswind is presented to establish the credibility of a high-fidelity, low-Mach, turbulent reacting flow wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach that includes multiphysics coupling to participating media radiation and conjugate heat transfer. To establish that WMLES can accurately predict surface quantities including drag and pressure coefficient in the low-Mach crosswind regime, a foundational elevated isothermal cylinder validation case is presented at a similar gap-to-diameter ratio of 0.25, spanning the subcritical to supercritical drag regime (Re 𝐷 = 1.1 × 10 5 and 4.3 × 10 5 , respectively). Here, this study exercised both static and dynamic coefficient LES (Smagorinsky and 𝑘 sgs ) with both local and exchange-based velocity sampling. Results showcase that the drag crisis (or the sudden drop in drag coefficient at increased Re 𝐷 ) is well captured when using an exchange-based dynamic coefficient WMLES methodology, while noting lack of mesh convergence and overall drag and pressure coefficient predictively when using a static coefficient, local velocity sampling WMLES. For the 𝒪⁡(10) m JP-8 liquid pool fire crosswind validation study presented, two experimental crosswind configurations (2 m/s and 9.5 m/s) are showcased for a fire-engulfed mock fuselage roughly 4 m in diameter. Using the best model-form practices identified in the isothermal study, dynamic coefficient 𝑘 sgs exchange-based WMLES fire validation findings demonstrate accurate peak irradiation and skin temperature predictions as a function of crosswind magnitude. Excessive yaw in the low-crosswind fuselage configuration, consistent with experimental findings, captured a significant predicted asymmetry in flame attachment and heat flux toward the downwind cylindrical cap—indicative of axial vortex structures transporting the flame along the upper and lower fuselage leeward surface. All fire mesh resolution simulations captured the experimental finding that as crosswind increased, predicted flame shape and peak irradiation magnitude onto the fuselage transitioned from a windward to a leeward cylinder location due to the migration of the upper- to lower-shear fuel/air mixing layer thereby demonstrating the novelty, significance, and credibility of this high-fidelity WMLES reacting flow framework.

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lattice Structured Lightweight Structural Materials

The development of lightweight structural materials is crucial for enhancing the performance and deployment feasibility of fission batteries. This study aims to produce lightweight structural materials whose strength-to-weight ratios exceed those of current widely used structural materials. To achieve this, advanced modeling and simulation tools were employed to design lattice structures with different lattice parameters and different lattice types. A process was successfully developed for transforming lattice-structured models into Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) inputs. Finite element modeling (FEM) was used to simulate the uniaxial tensile testing of the lattice-structured parts to investigate the stress distribution at a given displacement. The modeling results showed that the lattice-structured sample displayed a lower Young’s modulus in comparison to the solid material; the increase in solid shell thickness and blend radius enhances the mechanical performance; and the effect of unit cell size on macro scale stress is minimal. Tensile testing was conducted on the solid and lattice-structured materials fabricated by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing. The experimental results agreed well with the model prediction. The approach of using modeling as a guiding tool for preliminary material design can significantly save time and cost for new material development.

lightweight material↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiphysics simulation of recent experiments on alkali‐silica reaction expansion in reinforced concrete members

Alkali‐silica reaction (ASR) is an important degradation process that causes volumetric expansion and damage in concrete, and is affected significantly by the local temperature, moisture and stress conditions that often vary across the regions of a structure. Numerical simulation is essential to predict the progression and effects of ASR on the performance of structures. Because of the interactions between thermal and moisture transport and mechanical deformation, it is important for numerical models to represent all these physical phenomena and the coupling between them. Simulations of ASR in reinforced concrete (RC) structures are further complicated by the need to capture interactions between concrete and embedded reinforcing bars. Here, this paper describes the implementation of a scalable, coupled‐physics ASR model for simulating RC structures and assesses the ability of that model to predict ASR‐induced expansion in recent laboratory tests on RC block and beam specimens. These laboratory tests and the simulation approach were selected because of their applicability to RC structural‐scale simulations. This validation study helps builds confidence the ability of this approach to model ASR expansion in large, complex RC structures, which is a current high‐priority need.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling the Heterogeneous but Ordered Microstructure of the Nonionic Deep Eutectic Solvent Formed by Lauric Acid and N -Methylacetamide

The nonionic deep eutectic solvent, formed by lauric acid (LA) and N-methylacetamide (NMA), has been shown to have a heterogeneous molecular structure in which the LA and NMA form nonpolar and polar domains, respectively. Previous vibrational spectroscopy experiments demonstrated that the ability of the LA domains to solvate compounds was limited to long carbon chains, whereas other nonpolar molecules, such as W(CO) 6 , were found to be solvated by both LA and NMA. These experiments were not fully compatible with the previously proposed micelle-like structure of the nonpolar domains of the LA-NMA DES. In this work, the modeling of the DES molecular structure is pursued using classical molecular dynamics simulations. The new classical model reproduces both the SAXS structural factors and the previously experimentally derived interaction map for these LA-NMA DESs. In addition, the simulation also shows that LA-NMA DESs form highly organized LA aggregates that are difficult to disorganize. Further evidence of the correct description provided by the newly derived model is obtained using a moderately polar probe: chloroform-d. Computations using the classical model have a good agreement with the solvation behavior of the probe derived from experiments, in which the location of the probe is found to be mostly within the polar domain of the DES. The computational model also demonstrates that the probe solvation is a consequence of the tightly packed LA structure, which causes nonpolar molecules to be located at the interphase of the DES nonpolar domains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chromatin structures from integrated AI and polymer physics model

The physical organization of the genome in three-dimensional space regulates many biological processes, including gene expression and cell differentiation. Three-dimensional characterization of genome structure is critical to understanding these biological processes. Direct experimental measurements of genome structure are challenging; computational models of chromatin structure are therefore necessary. We develop an approach that combines a particle-based chromatin polymer model, molecular simulation, and machine learning to efficiently and accurately estimate chromatin structure fromindirectmeasures of genome structure. More specifically, we introduce a new approach where the interaction parameters of the polymer model are extracted from experimental Hi-C data using a graph neural network (GNN). We train the GNN on simulated data from the underlying polymer model, avoiding the need for large quantities of experimental data. The resulting approach accurately estimates chromatin structures across all chromosomes and across several experimental cell lines despite being trained almost exclusively on simulated data. The proposed approach can be viewed as a general framework for combining physical modeling with machine learning, and it could be extended to integrate additional biological data modalities. Ultimately, we achieve accurate and high-throughput estimations of chromatin structure from Hi-C data, which will be necessary as experimental methodologies, such as single-cell Hi-C, improve.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling of Charge Regulation and Geometry in Soft Ionizable Molecular Assemblies

The size, shape, and charge of structures, such as proteins and amphiphile assemblies, respond in an interconnected manner to solution ionic conditions. Here, we analyze assemblies of an amphiphile (C 16 K 2 ), with two ionizable amino acids [lysine (K)] coupled to a 16-carbon alkyl tail, via small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), nonlinear Poisson–Boltzmann theory (nl-PB), and hybrid Monte Carlo-molecular dynamics (MC-MD) simulations. SAXS revealed structural transitions from spherical micelles to cylindrical micelles to bilayers with increasing pH. By combining SAXS-determined structural information and nl-PB, we derived the molecular degree of ionization as a function of pH. The back-calculated titration curves matched the experimental data over an extended pH range, without adjustable parameters. Similarly, the SAXS data on the evolution of spherical micelle structure with ionic strength were combined with nl-PB and MC-MD to derive the bare and effective charges. MC-MD, which considered finite ion sizes, showed that bare and effective charges saturate quickly with increasing salt concentration. Furthermore, the calculated effective charges closely matched results from Zeta-potential measurements. The presented approach has advantages over customary methods for charge regulation, such as the Henderson–Hasselbalch (HH) or Hill models, where molecular ionization/deionization in assemblies is described by effective pKs that are distinct from the pK for isolated molecules. However, these models lack a physical explanation for these pK shifts. By contrast, our approach of combining structural details with an electrostatic model and simulations provides a more intuitive understanding of structure-charge coupling and a framework for understanding charge regulation in many synthetic and biological systems.

ionization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Establishing a process-structure-property-performance framework for SLS additive manufacturing through integrated multiscale modeling

This study presents a comprehensive suite of high-fidelity computational models that integrate multiscale and multiphysics simulations to capture the full Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) additive manufacturing process—from initial melting and solidification to mechanical response under external loads. Process simulations are linked with mechanical analysis through Representative Volume Elements (RVEs), establishing a process-structure–property-performance framework. The interaction between laser light and polyamide 12 (PA12) powder is modeled, accounting for laser characteristics and the optical, thermal, and geometrical properties of the powder. The heat source is incorporated into a heat transfer model, coupled with crystallization kinetics and densification models to predict material density and crystallinity. The porosity distribution from the densification model and crystallinity interpolated from experimental data are used to construct the RVEs. A multi-mechanism constitutive model is then calibrated using mechanical tests to predict the stress–strain response. Simulation results show good agreement with experimental data in terms of porosity, crystallinity, and mechanical performance when sufficient laser power (62 W or higher) is used. This research supports the inverse design of 3D-printed structures by introducing a high-fidelity framework that combines multiscale and multiphysics modeling with experimental calibration for predictive and performance-driven additive manufacturing.

SLS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Verification of Lumped-Parameter, Multibody Structural Dynamics for Offshore Wind Turbines

This paper presents the modeling and verification of multibody structural dynamics for offshore wind turbines. The flexible tower and support structure of a monopile-based offshore wind turbine are modeled using an acausal, lumped-parameter, multibody approach that incorporates structural flexibility, soil-structure interaction, and hydrodynamic models. Simulation results are benchmarked against alternative modeling approaches, demonstrating the model's ability to accurately capture both static and dynamic behaviors under various wind and wave conditions while maintaining computational efficiency. This work provides a valuable tool for analyzing key structural characteristics of wind turbines, including eigenfrequencies, mode shapes, damping, and internal forces.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Using High-Fidelity Aerostructural Optimization

Large wind turbines yield more energy but demand careful aeroelastic blade design. Coupled multiphysics design strategies can reduce wind energy costs by exploiting fluid-structure interactions. This work presents the first high-fidelity aerostructural optimization study of a large wind turbine rotor. We use blade-resolved fluid dynamics and structural solvers in a monolithic gradient-based optimization framework to explore steady-state torque and blade mass tradeoffs. The coupled-adjoint approach computes gradients efficiently, enabling the optimization of over 100 structural and geometric parameters simultaneously. Our optimization study modifies a DTU 10 MW benchmark with a simplified structure and isotropic material properties. The tightly coupled optimizations increase torque by 14% while reducing rotor mass by 9% or reduce blade mass by 27% while maintaining torque. Blade-resolved models provide greater design freedom, enabling 5% higher mass reductions than conventional parameterizations at equal torque. This framework paves the way for more detailed high-fidelity optimization studies to complement conventional design approaches.

17 WIND ENERGY↗