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This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).
In this fourth paper in a series, we present a model of the remarkable temporal and azimuthal variability of the Io plasma torus observed during the Cassini encounter with Jupiter. Over a period of three months, the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) observed a dramatic variaton in the average torus composition. Superimposed on this long-term variation, is a 10.07-hour periodicity caused by azimuthal variation in plasma composition subcorotating relative to System III longitude. Quite surprisingly, the amplitude of the azimuthal variation appears to be modulated at the beat frequency between the System III period and the observed 10.07-hour period. Previously, we have successfully modeled the months-long compositional change by supposing a factor of three increase in the amount of material supplied to Io's extended neutral clouds. Here, we extend our torus chemistry model to include an azimuthal dimension. We postulate the existence of two azimuthal variations in the number of superthermal electrons in the torus: a primary variation that subcorotates with a period of 10.07 hours and a secondary variation that remains fixed in System III longitude. Using these two hot electron variations, our model can reproduce the observed temporal and azimuthal variations observed by Cassini UVIS.
The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.
A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northern Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1), dropping to + 0.2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1), with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g Cm(exp -2)) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968-1989 showed about 10-20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m-2 y@1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C nt-2 y,@l; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1). Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969 - 89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.
While the ability to model the state of a space system over time is essential during spacecraft operations, the use of time-based simulations remains rare in preliminary design. The absence of the time dimension in most traditional early design tools can however become a hurdle when designing complex systems whose development and operations can be disrupted by various events, such as delays or failures. As the value delivered by a space system is highly affected by such events, exploring the trade space for designs that yield the maximum value calls for the explicit modeling of time.This paper discusses the use of discrete-event models to simulate spacecraft development schedule as well as operational scenarios and on-orbit resources in the presence of uncertainty. It illustrates how such simulations can be utilized to support trade studies, through the example of a tool developed for DARPA's F6 program to assist the design of "fractionated spacecraft".
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Observations of ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the major ion species (S(sup +), S(sup ++), S(sup +++), O(sup +), O(sup ++) of the Io Plasma torus made during the Cassini flyby (October 2000 to March 2001) have revealed significant time variability. Using a homogenoeus model for mass and energy flow in the torus parameterized by five input variables (transport timescale, neutral source strength, ratio of oxygen to sulfur atoms in the source, fraction of superthermal electrons, and temperature of the hot electrons), we have investigated the time variability of the torus properties (density, composition, and temperature) during the Cassini era. In order to match the changes in emissions, the model suggests that a significant change in the neutral source occurred near the beginning of the observing period, decreasing from more than 1.8 tons/s to 0.7 tons/s. The changes in the neutral source appear to coincide with the declining phase of a dramatic (i.e., 2-3 order of magnitude) peak in iogenic dust emissions observed by Galileo prior to the Cassini era.
Currently, research is being conducted on the optical properties of materials associated with the development of solid state lasers in the two micron region. In support of this effort, a mathematical model describing the energy transfer in a holmium laser sensitized with thulium is developed. In this paper, we establish some qualitative properties of the solution of the model, such as non-negativity, boundedness, and integrability. A local stability analysis is then performed from which conditions for asymptotic stability are attained. Finally, we report on our numerical analysis of the system and how it compares with experimental results.
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This technical report presents Prithvi-EO-2.0, a new geospatial foundation model that offers significant improvements over its predecessor, Prithvi-EO-1.0. Trained on 4.2M global time series samples from NASA’s Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archive at 30m resolution, the new 300M and 600M parameter models incorporate temporal and location embeddings for enhanced performance across various geospatial tasks. Through extensive benchmarking with GEOBench, the 600M version outperforms the previous Prithvi-EO model by 8% across a range of tasks. It also outperforms six other geospatial foundation models when benchmarked on remote sensing tasks from different domains and resolutions (i.e. from 0.1m to 15m). The results demonstrate the versatility of the model in both classical earth observation and high-resolution applications. Early involvement of end-users and subject matter experts (SMEs) are among the key factors that contributed to the project’s success. In particular, SME involvement allowed for constant feedback on model and dataset design, as well as successful customization for diverse SME-led applications in disaster response, land use and crop mapping, and ecosystem dynamics monitoring. Prithvi-EO-2.0 is available on Hugging Face and IBM terratorch, with additional resources on GitHub. The project exemplifies the Trusted Open Science approach embraced by all involved organizations.
We have been developing a simplified spatial-temporal discrimination model similar to our simplified spatial model in that masking is assumed to be a function of the local visible contrast energy. The overall spatial-temporal sensitivity of the model is calibrated to predict the detectability of targets on a uniform background. To calibrate the spatial-temporal integration functions that define local visible contrast energy, spatial-temporal masking data are required. Observer thresholds were measured (2IFC) for the detection of a 12 msec target stimulus in the presence of a 700 msec mask. Targets were 1, 3 or 9 c/deg sine wave gratings. Masks were either one of these gratings or two of them combined. The target was presented in 17 temporal positions with respect to the mask, including positions before, during and after the mask. Peak masking was found near mask onset and offset for 1 and 3 c/deg targets, while masking effects were more nearly uniform during the mask for the 9 c/deg target. As in the purely spatial case, the simplified model can not predict all the details of masking as a function of masking component spatial frequencies, but overall the prediction errors are small.
Temporal and spatial fetures of central equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-level variation appear similar, in measurements from two very different systems (one in the ocean and one carried on a satellite), and in results from a numerical model of the region. In particular, there is an interannual cycle: during El Nino, Kelvin waves appear at the equator, and the sea-surface ridge associated with the equatorial current system shifts southward; in non-El Nino years, instability waves appear at 6 deg N (strongest around the end of each calendar year), and the ridge shifts to the north. This three-way comparison gives support to both measurement systems and to the numerical model.
Two classes of spatially uniform models for the Io torus are analyzed for the stability and temporal variability of the torus. It is shown that stable-equilibrium torus models exist in two classes of models, one with nonlinear radial transport loss of plasma (e.g., from centrifugally driven interchanges) and one with linear transport (e.g., from externally driven interchanges). The two classes of models make substantially different predictions regarding temporal variability of the Io torus. Observational tests are proposed that make it possible to discriminate between the two classes.
Development of a 4-D approach to dynamic machine vision is described. Core elements of this method are spatio-temporal models oriented towards objects and laws of perspective projection in a foward mode. Integration of multi-sensory measurement data was achieved through spatio-temporal models as invariants for object recognition. Situation assessment and long term predictions were allowed through maintenance of a symbolic 4-D image of processes involving objects. Behavioral capabilities were easily realized by state feedback and feed-foward control.
Temporal variations of the ozone density profile in the Martian atmosphere at high latitudes are calculated for the course of a Martian year, taking into account seasonal and diurnal variations in temperature, water vapor and solar radiation. Calculations are based on a model including 35 neutral photochemical reactions, and vertical eddy diffusion using a time step of 12 min for the region from the surface to 240 km altitude. Results are found to be in better agreement with Mariner 9 observations of the time and magnitude of the seasonal maximum than previous model calculations. The diurnal variation is predicted to be small near the solstices, with the nighttime ozone density greater than the daytime and the magnitude of the difference dependent on season. Opposite temporal variations are predicted for ozone densities above and below about 25 km, and an ozone density maximum at 35-40 km is obtained. It is suggested that the effects of an aerosol layer may not be important in enhancing predicted ozone concentration, and may even decrease it.
Sensing the 3D environment of a moving robot is essential for collision avoidance. Most 3D sensors produce dense depth maps, which are subject to imperfections due to various environmental factors. Temporal fusion of depth maps is crucial to overcome those. Temporal fusion is traditionally done in 3D space with voxel data structures, but it can be approached by temporal fusion in image space, with potential benefits in reduced memory and computational cost for applications like reactive collision avoidance for micro air vehicles. In this paper, we present an efficient Gaussian Mixture Models based depth map fusion approach, introducing an online update scheme for dense representations. The environment is modeled from an ego-centric point of view, where each pixel is represented by a mixture of Gaussian inverse-depth models. Consecutive frames are related to each other by transformations obtained from visual odometry. This approach achieves better accuracy than alternative image space depth map fusion techniques at lower computational cost.
An observational program was established in 1983 to monitor the spatial and temporal variations in the Jovian atmosphere over short and long time scales. The program involves tracking several different longitudes as they rotate around the planet from one limb to another. This tracking experiment was done at many different wavelengths including the 3-0 S(1) and S(0) hydrogen quadrupole lines as well as several broad band methane absorptions. The June 1983 hydrogen quadrupole data was reduced and equivalent widths were measured for approximately 25 east-west positions across the planet at 7 different latitudes for both wavelengths. The data for the South Tropical Zone (20 deg. S) was modeled extensively and the effects of the various model parameters on the value of the calculated equivalent widths of both lines was measured as a longitude rotated from the east (or morning) limb to the west (or evening) limb. The value of the equivalent width is also quite sensitive to the height of the NH3 cloud top and to the value used for the single scattering albedo. A combination of these parameters changing on a diurnal time scale could also explain these observations. This gradual increase from one limb to the other appears in the data for both the North and South Equatorial Belts as well as the equatorial region and the North Tropical Zone. Models that used only normal hydrogen and models that used only equilibrium hydrogen were studied.
Data for wind profile spectra changes with respect to time from Cape Kennedy, Florida for the time period from 28 November 1964 to 11 May 1967 have been analyzed. A universal statistical distribution of the spectral change which encompasses all vertical wave numbers, wind speed categories, and elapsed time has been developed for the standard deviation of the time changes of detailed wind profile spectra as a function of wave number.