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At least 19 records

Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE True Planning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE True Planning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE True Planning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

Friz, Paul D.

Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

Paul D Friz

Blind Validation Study of PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning by PRICE Systems, and System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware (SEER-H) by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. This study is an independent verification of the accuracy of these tools and was originally published in 2018. The purpose of this presentation is to circulate the findings of that study among the NASA cost community. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates; however, none of the missions fell within PRICE’s confidence intervals. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER-H which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER

Status of Shock Layer Radiation Validation Studies

This paper presents a status update for the shock layer radiation validation studies conducted at NASA. A review of the present capability for the simulation and validation of shock layer radiation is presented as well as providing an overview of the data obtained from the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST). The paper will include details covering updated convective and radiative heating correlations, provide an overview of the development of new kinetics for Mars entry and detail some recent work calculating after-body radiation. Furthermore, the paper will highlight conditions where there is high confidence in the validation of EAST data (e.g. Earth entry for speeds greater than approximately 10 kms and for many Mars entry conditions) and where further experimental data would be highly beneficial (e.g. lower speed Earth entry around 7.5 to 10 kms and higher speed CO2 entries relevant to Venus). Nominal test conditions for both Earth and Mars are provided for future potential facility-to-facility comparisons.

Entry systems modeling

A validation study of four Navier-Stokes codes for high-speed flows

A code validation study has been conducted for four different codes for solving the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. Computations for a series of nominally two-dimensional high-speed laminar separated flows were compared with detailed experimental shock-tunnel results. The shock wave-boundary layer interactions considered were induced by a compression ramp in one case and by an externally-generated incident shock in the second case. In general, good agreement was reached between the grid-refined calculations and experiment for the incipient- and small-separation conditions. For the most highly separated flow, three-dimensional calculations which included the finite-span effects of the experiment were required in order to obtain agreement with the data. The finite-span effects were important in determining the extent of separation as well as the time required to establish the steady-flow interaction. The results presented provide a resolution of discrepancies with the experimental data encountered in several recent computational studies.

Rudy, David H.

A semi-automatic method for left ventricle volume estimate: an in vivo validation study

This study aims to the validation of the left ventricular (LV) volume estimates obtained by processing volumetric data utilizing a segmentation model based on level set technique. The validation has been performed by comparing real-time volumetric echo data (RT3DE) and magnetic resonance (MRI) data. A validation protocol has been defined. The validation protocol was applied to twenty-four estimates (range 61-467 ml) obtained from normal and pathologic subjects, which underwent both RT3DE and MRI. A statistical analysis was performed on each estimate and on clinical parameters as stroke volume (SV) and ejection fraction (EF). Assuming MRI estimates (x) as a reference, an excellent correlation was found with volume measured by utilizing the segmentation procedure (y) (y=0.89x + 13.78, r=0.98). The mean error on SV was 8 ml and the mean error on EF was 2%. This study demonstrated that the segmentation technique is reliably applicable on human hearts in clinical practice.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary

Code Validation Study for Base Flows

New and old rocket launch concepts recommend the clustering of motors for improved lift capability. The flowfield of the base region of the rocket is very complex and can contain high temperature plume gases. These hot gases can cause catastrophic problems if not adequately designed for. To assess the base region characteristics, advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used. As a precursor to these calculations the CFD code requires validation on base flows. The primary objective of this code validation study was to establish a high level of confidence in predicting base flows with the USA CFD code. USA has been extensively validated for fundamental flows and other applications. However, base heating flows have a number of unique characteristics so it was necessary to extend the existing validation for this class of problems. In preparation for the planned NLS 1.5 Stage base heating analysis, six case sets were studied to extend the USA code validation data base. This presentation gives a cursive review of three of these cases. The cases presented include a 2D axi-symmetric study, a 3D real nozzle study, and a 3D multi-species study. The results of all the studies show good general agreement with data with no adjustments to the base numerical algorithms or physical models in the code. The study proved the capability of the USA code for modeling base flows within the accuracy of available data.

Ascoli, Edward P.

Tree Canopy Characterization for EO-1 Reflective and Thermal Infrared Validation Studies: Rochester, New York

The tree canopy characterization presented herein provided ground and tree canopy data for different types of tree canopies in support of EO-1 reflective and thermal infrared validation studies. These characterization efforts during August and September of 2001 included stem and trunk location surveys, tree structure geometry measurements, meteorology, and leaf area index (LAI) measurements. Measurements were also collected on thermal and reflective spectral properties of leaves, tree bark, leaf litter, soil, and grass. The data presented in this report were used to generate synthetic reflective and thermal infrared scenes and images that were used for the EO-1 Validation Program. The data also were used to evaluate whether the EO-1 ALI reflective channels can be combined with the Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal infrared channel to estimate canopy temperature, and also test the effects of separating the thermal and reflective measurements in time resulting from satellite formation flying.

Ballard, Jerrell R., Jr.

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H

Simulators' validation study: Problem solution logic

A study was conducted to validate the ground based simulators used for aircraft environment in ride-quality research. The logic to the approach for solving this problem is developed. The overall problem solution flow chart is presented. The factors which could influence the human response to the environment on board the aircraft are analyzed. The mathematical models used in the study are explained. The steps which were followed in conducting the validation tests are outlined.

Schoultz, M. B.

Progress Towards a Microgravity CFD Validation Study Using the ISS SPHERES-SLOSH Experiment

Understanding, predicting, and controlling fluid slosh dynamics is critical to safety and improving performance of space missions when a significant percentage of the spacecrafts mass is a liquid. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can be used to predict the dynamics of slosh, but these programs require extensive validation. Many CFD programs have been validated by slosh experiments using various fluids in earth gravity, but prior to the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experiment1, little experimental data for long-duration, zero-gravity slosh existed. This paper presents the current status of an ongoing CFD validation study using the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experimental data.

CFD

Progress Towards a Microgravity CFD Validation Study Using the ISS SPHERES-SLOSH Experiment

Understanding, predicting, and controlling fluid slosh dynamics is critical to safety and improving performance of space missions when a significant percentage of the spacecrafts mass is a liquid. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can be used to predict the dynamics of slosh, but these programs require extensive validation. Many CFD programs have been validated by slosh experiments using various fluids in earth gravity, but prior to the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experiment, little experimental data for long-duration, zero-gravity slosh existed. This paper presents the current status of an ongoing CFD validation study using the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experimental data.

microgravity

Progress Towards a Microgravity CFD Validation Study Using the ISS SPHERES-SLOSH Experiment

Understanding, predicting, and controlling fluid slosh dynamics is critical to safety and improving performance of space missions when a significant percentage of the spacecrafts mass is a liquid. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can be used to predict the dynamics of slosh, but these programs require extensive validation. Many CFD programs have been validated by slosh experiments using various fluids in earth gravity, but prior to the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experiment1, little experimental data for long-duration, zero-gravity slosh existed. This paper presents the current status of an ongoing CFD validation study using the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experimental data.

Storey, Jedediah M.

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee

Intent inferencing by an intelligent operator's associate - A validation study

In the supervisory control of a complex, dynamic system, one potential form of aiding for the human operator is a computer-based operator's associate. The design philosophy of the operator's associate is that of 'amplifying' rather than automating human skills. In particular, the associate possesses understanding and control properties. Understanding allows it to infer operator intentions and thus form the basis for context-dependent advice and reminders; control properties allow the human operator to dynamically delegate individual tasks or subfunctions to the associate. This paper focuses on the design, implementation, and validation of the intent inferencing function. Two validation studies are described which empirically demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach to intent inferencing.

Jones, Patricia M.

The Fast Scattering Code (FSC): Validation Studies and Program Guidelines

The Fast Scattering Code (FSC) is a frequency domain noise prediction program developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to simulate the acoustic field produced by the interaction of known, time harmonic incident sound with bodies of arbitrary shape and surface impedance immersed in a potential flow. The code uses the equivalent source method (ESM) to solve an exterior 3-D Helmholtz boundary value problem (BVP) by expanding the scattered acoustic pressure field into a series of point sources distributed on a fictitious surface placed inside the actual scatterer. This work provides additional code validation studies and illustrates the range of code parameters that produce accurate results with minimal computational costs. Systematic noise prediction studies are presented in which monopole generated incident sound is scattered by simple geometric shapes - spheres (acoustically hard and soft surfaces), oblate spheroids, flat disk, and flat plates with various edge topologies. Comparisons between FSC simulations and analytical results and experimental data are presented.

Tinetti, Ana F.

The 2006 Kennedy Space Center Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the Performance of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle Vehicle

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model that summarizes wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 km. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle program, which launches from KSC, utilizes the KSC RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the KSC RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, the Natural Environments Branch at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted a validation study and a comparison analysis to the existing KSC RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed by JSC/Ascent Flight Design Division to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee