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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and script associated with “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest”

This data package contains the data and code to use and run the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WT-WRF-Hydro) with the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework. It is associated with the publication “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest” published in Scientific Reports (Butler et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46539-1). We use the Continental U.S. (CONUSII; Rasmussen et al., 2021) dataset to force the model with an historical climate (2006–2013) and a future climate (2086–2093) with a representative carbon pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We use the model to calculate water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also show key hydrologic and environmental variables that affect water transit times and changes in the future. Finally, we use observed data to validate the model such as stream water isotopes, snowpack characteristics, and stream discharge. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package consists of 11 folders: (1) "Figures" contains the exported figures used in the manuscript; (2) "Model_Isotope_Date" contains the WT-WRF-Hydro isotope date used in model validation; (3) “Model_Outputs_Future” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro future climate outputs; (4) “Model_Outputs_Historical” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro historical climate outputs; (5) “Model_Outputs_Weights_Areas” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro weights per catchment used to calculate water transit times and isotopes in stream water; (6) “MODIS_data_scripts” contains data used to validate snow conditions in the study area; (7) “Observed_Flow_Data” contains the observed streamflow data used in model validation; (8) “Observed_Isotope_Data” contains the observed stream water isotope data used in model validation; (9) “Scripts” contains the Python scripts used to general results and the figures; (10) “Statistic_Outputs” contains the water transit time statistical outputs reported in this manuscript; (11) “Validation_SNOTEL” contains the SNOTEL data used in model validation. The files in this data package have the following file extensions: .tif, .txt, .csv, .pdf, .py, .jpg, and .png.

American River↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Study 2022-2024: Sample-Based Surface Water Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Dissolved Organic Carbon, Total Nitrogen, Stable Isotopes, and Total Suspended Solids from across Multiple Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of temporal variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides geochemistry data generated from samples collected at bi-weekly or monthly intervals at six sites across the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Sample and sensor data from previous years (2021-2022) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1898912 and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1892054, respectively. Related sensor data from 2022-2024 will be published separately. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; (5) dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and averages; (6) dissolved organic carbon (DOC; reported as non-purgeable organic carbon; NPOC) and averages; (7) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) and averages; (8) total suspended solids (TSS); (9) stable isotopes; (10) surface water sampling protocol; (11) sensor protocol; (12) methods codes; and (13) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file. All files are .csv or .pdf. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. For data and scripts associated with "Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest" (Butler et al., 2026), go to https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3025481

18-O↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating a Water Tracer Model Into WRF‐Hydro for Characterizing the Effect of Lateral Flow in Hydrologic Simulations

Abstract Most current land models approximate terrestrial hydrological processes as one‐dimensional vertical flow, neglecting lateral water movement from ridges to valleys. Such lateral flow is fundamental at catchment scales and becomes crucial for finer‐scale land models. To test the effect of incorporating lateral flow toward three‐dimensional representations of hydrological processes in the next generation land models, we integrate a water tracer model into the WRF‐Hydro framework to track water movement from precipitation to discharge and evapotranspiration. This hydrologic‐tracer integrated system allows us to identify the key mechanisms by which lateral flow affects the flow paths and transit times in WRF‐Hydro. By comparing modeling experiments with and without lateral routing in two contrasting catchments, we determine the impacts of lateral flow on the transit times of precipitation event‐water. Results show that with limited hydrologic connectivity, lateral flow extends the transit times by reducing (increasing) event‐water drainage loss (accumulation) in ridges (valleys) and allowing reinfiltration of infiltration‐excess flow, which is missing in most land models. On the contrary with high hydrologic connectivity, lateral flow can effectively accelerate the water release to streams and reduce the transit time. However, the transit times are substantially underestimated by the model compared with isotope‐derived estimates, indicating model limitations in representing flow paths and transit times. This study provides some insights on the fundamental differences in terrestrial hydrology simulated by land models with and without lateral flow representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

River Dynamics Control Transit Time Distributions and Biogeochemical Reactions in a Dam-Regulated River Corridor

Residence Time Distributions (RTDs) exert an important control on biogeochemical translation in the hydrological systems. Previous tracer studies have revealed that RTDs often followed time-invariant exponential, lognormal, or heavy-tailed RTDs that have power-law behavior for long tails in headwater or low-order streams. However, there is a recognition that RTDs can be more complicated and time-variable in response to dynamic hydrological forcing. Here, we use particle tracking to estimate RTDs along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River and to quantify the influences of river stage fluctuations. Particle tracking is conducted using the velocity field from high-resolution 3D groundwater flow simulations. The effects of hydrological forcing on the residence time distribution were evaluated by varying river flow boundary conditions and releasing particles in different time windows. Our results revealed that dynamic stage fluctuations created rapidly changing losing-gaining conditions in the river and led to highly transient RTDs, which contributes to multiple modes of RTDs. Dam-induced high-frequency (sub-daily) flow variation contributes to the short-time (sub-daily) component of the RTDs. Deviation of the reactant consumption under the single-mode assumption compared to the multimodal RTDs is relatively small (~5%) and appears when the Damköhler number was close to one.More specifically, high-frequency (daily) dam-induced stage variations have higher impacts on biogeochemical reactions with faster reaction rate, and can potentially increase the reactant consumption by 26.68%. Based on these findings, we suggest that current river basin models could be improved by including bank storage and more complex RTDs influenced by both short and long term river stage fluctuations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermodynamic and Kinetic Transitions of Liquids in Nanoconfinement

Core principles of chemistry are ubiquitously invoked to shed light on the nature of molecular level interactions in nanoconfined fluids, which play a pivotal role in a wide range of processes in geochemistry, biology, and engineering. A detailed understanding of the physicochemical processes involved in the flow, structural transitions, and freezing or melting behavior of fluids confined within nanometer-sized pores of solid materials is thus of enormous importance for both basic research and technological applications. This Account provides a perspective on new insights into the thermodynamic and kinetic transitions of nanoconfined fluids in their stable and metastable forms. After briefly introducing the unique properties of mesoporous silicas from the SBA, MCM, and FDU families that serve as the confinement matrices, combining highly ordered single and bimodal mesopore architectures with tunable pore sizes in the ~2-15 nm range and narrow size distributions, recent studies on melting/freezing behavior of water confined in these host matrices are reviewed. While differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) reveals a linear relationship between melting point depression and pore size (independent of the pore shape), as predicted by the Gibbs-Thomson relation, variable temperature 2 H wide-line nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy studies confirm the core-shell model of water and give evidence for a layer-by-layer freezing mechanism, which gives rise to an apparent fragile-to-strong transition in the solidification dynamics. In contrast to the freezing/melting behavior of water, the effect of nanoconfinement on the glass transition of supercooled liquids is nonuniversal and the glass transition temperature T g can either increase or decrease with the dimensionality and extent of confinement. This nonuniversal behavior is exemplified by the two glass-forming molecular liquids, glycerol and ortho-terphenyl (OTP). While glycerol shows an increase in T g and a pronounced slowdown of the rotational dynamics of the constituent molecules due to a change in the molecular packing between the bulk and the confined liquid, OTP displays a linear and confining-media-dependent depression of T g with increased confinement that is strongly influenced by the pore-liquid interface characteristics. This Account concludes with a focus on recent experimental evidence of extreme spatial and dynamical heterogeneity in both freezing and glass transition processes. This discovery was enabled by the unique mesoporous structures of SBA-16 and FDU-5, possessing bimodal architectures with two interconnected pore types of different size and shape (spherical and cylindrical). For the very first time, two melting points for water and two glass transitions for supercooled OTP, corresponding to a specific pore type, were observed. Collectively, these observations strongly suggest a close mechanistic connection between the local fluctuations in the structure and dynamics of nanoconfined liquids. Finally, while the findings reviewed in this Account provide new insights into thermodynamic and kinetic transitions of fluids, there remain many unanswered questions regarding the effects of nanoconfinement on the fundamental properties of fluids, which offer exciting future opportunities in chemical research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Analysis of Hydrologic Exchange Flows and Transit Time Distributions in a Large Regulated River

Hydrologic exchange between river channels and adjacent subsurface environments is a key process that influences water quality and ecosystem function in river corridors. High-resolution numerical models were often used to resolve the spatial and temporal variations of exchange flows, which are computationally expensive. In this study, we adopt Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) approaches for deriving reduced order models of hydrologic exchange flows and associated transit time distributions, with integrated field observations (e.g., bathymetry) and hydrodynamic simulation data (e.g., river velocity, depth). The setup allows an improved understanding of the influences of various physical, spatial, and temporal factors on the hydrologic exchange flows and transit times. The predictors also contain those derived using hybrid clustering, leveraging our previous work on river corridor system hydromorphic classification. The machine learning-based predictive models are developed and validated along the Columbia River Corridor, and the results show that the top parameters are the thickness of the top geological formation layer, the flow regime, river velocity, and river depth; the RF and XGB models can achieve 70% to 80% accuracy and therefore are effective alternatives to the computational demanding numerical models of exchange flows and transit time distributions. Each machine learning model with its favorable configuration and setup have been evaluated. The transferability of the models to other river reaches and larger scales, which mostly depends on data availability, is also discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the anomalous water absorption behavior of cement mortar in view of its physical sensitivity to water

The one-dimensional water absorption into cement-based materials, possibly the simplest case of unsaturated water flow playing a fundamental role in predicting mass transport and durability, is still far from being completely understood due to several puzzling anomalies. Considering the water sensitivity of C-S-H gels (swell upon wetting and contract upon drying), a modified Richards equation (MRE) is proposed to quantify the anomalous water absorption into cement-based materials of changing porosity. Consistent experimental tests on a cement mortar and calculations indicate that the MRE with time-decaying water permeability can quantitatively capture the long-term absorption with two linear stages and a nonlinear transition stage between them. The water sensitivity is validated to be responsible for the anomalous deviation of water absorption from the classical square root of time law. It also partially contributes to the anomalous dependence of sorptivity on the temperature-dependent surface tension and viscosity of water and many organic liquids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structural dynamics in the water and proton channels of photosystem II during the S2 to S3 transition

Abstract Light-driven oxidation of water to molecular oxygen is catalyzed by the oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) in Photosystem II (PS II). This multi-electron, multi-proton catalysis requires the transport of two water molecules to and four protons from the OEC. A high-resolution 1.89 Å structure obtained by averaging all the S states and refining the data of various time points during the S 2 to S 3 transition has provided better visualization of the potential pathways for substrate water insertion and proton release. Our results indicate that the O1 channel is the likely water intake pathway, and the Cl1 channel is the likely proton release pathway based on the structural rearrangements of water molecules and amino acid side chains along these channels. In particular in the Cl1 channel, we suggest that residue D1-E65 serves as a gate for proton transport by minimizing the back reaction. The results show that the water oxidation reaction at the OEC is well coordinated with the amino acid side chains and the H-bonding network over the entire length of the channels, which is essential in shuttling substrate waters and protons.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and stream water across watersheds of the National Ecological Observation Network

The timescales associated with precipitation moving through watersheds reveal processes that are critical to understanding many hydrologic systems. Measurements of environmental stable water isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) have been used as tracers to study hydrologic timescales by examining how long it takes for incoming precipitation tracers become stream discharge, yet limited measurements both spatially and temporally have bounded macroscale evaluations so far. Here in this observation driven study across North American biomes within the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), we examined δ 18 O and δ 2 H stable water isotope in precipitation (δP) and stream water (δQ) at 26 co-located sites. With an average 54 precipitation samples and 139 stream water samples per site collected over 2014–2022, assessment of local meteoric water lines and local stream water lines showed geographic variation across North America. Taking the ratio of estimated seasonal amplitudes of δP and δQ to calculate young water fractions (F yw ), showed a Fyw range from 1% to 93% with most sites having F yw below 20%. Calculate d mean transit times (MTT) based on a gamma convolution model showed a MTT range from 0.10 to 13.2 years, with half of the sites having MTT estimates lower than 2 years. Significant correlations were found between the F yw and watershed area, longest flow length, and the longest flow length/slope. Significant correlations were found between MTT and site latitude, longitude, slope, clay fraction, temperature, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation frequency. The significant correlations between water timescale metrics and the environmental characteristics we report share some similarities with those reported in prior studies, demonstrating that these quantities are primarily driven by site or area specific factors. The analysis of isotope data presented here provides important constraints on isotope variation in North American biomes and the timescales of water movement through NEON study sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Site-Selective Real-Time Observation of Bimolecular Electron Transfer in a Photocatalytic System Using L-Edge X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Here, time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy has been utilized to monitor the bimolecular electron transfer in a photocatalytic water splitting system. This has been possible by uniting the local probe and element specific character of X-ray transitions with insights from high-level ab initio calculations. The specific target has been a heteroleptic [Ir III (ppy) 2 (bpy)] + photosensitizer, in combination with triethylamine as a sacrificial reductant and Fe 3 (CO) 12 as a water reduction catalyst. The relevant molecular transitions have been characterized via high-resolution Ir L-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy on the picosecond time scale and restricted active space self-consistent field calculations. The presented methods and results will enhance our understanding of functionally relevant bimolecular electron transfer reactions and thus will pave the road to rational optimization of photocatalytic performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transition Core Modeling for Extended Enrichment & Accident-Tolerant Fuels Using Polaris/PARCS

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors are currently interested in increasing the low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel enrichments from the current limit of 5.0 $^w/_o$ $^{235}U$ up to 10 $^ w/_o$ $^{235}U$ (referred to as "LEU+") in their current fleets; they are also interested in using accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) with both LEU and LEU+ fuel. This report aims to identify modeling challenges and accuracy concerns in transition core analysis using the SCALE Polaris lattice physics code and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission core simulator PARCS. At the time this study was started, no publicly available LEU+ core designs existed for boiling water reactor (BWR) or pressurized water reactor (PWR) systems. Therefore, fuel lattices were shuffled within a multi-assembly model to mimic neutronically challenging lattice combinations seen in transition cores, such as a fresh LEU+ lattice next to depleted LEU lattices. In addition to multi-assembly models, whole-core BWR transition core calculations were performed for ATF and LEU+ fuel using an existing Hatch-1 Cycle 3 core model. A whole-core BWR model was chosen due to the more heterogeneous core designs compared to those for a PWR core. Since the original core is an old checkerboard core design and no core or fuel design optimization was performed for the modeled fuel types, these core calculations were intended only to provide: (1) Comparisons of core characteristics of interest, such as the pin power distributions and peaking factors, Doppler temperature coefficients (DTCs), and control blade worths (CBWs) under challenging core designs, (2) Identification of reactor physics challenges in modeling LEU+ and ATF cores, and (3) A stress test for the Polaris/PARCS two-step modeling approach, including characterization of the relative accuracy for predicting characteristics of interest such as pin power distributions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗