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Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks

Confidently designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear applications. This type of analysis relies on matching new nuclear applications with existing benchmark experiments. The Whisper-1.1 software package included in MCNP6.2 ®1 contains more than 1,100 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. These benchmarks however rarely match new nuclear applications. The number of benchmarks available to match a given set of materials or geometric configurations varies significantly. Furthermore, recently performed benchmark experiments may not have had enough time to be properly documented and published. Benchmarks are vital for determining the accuracy of nuclear data and can assist nuclear physics and evaluators in improving nuclear data libraries. Exhaustively exploring the parameter space using simulations with software such as MCNP is too computationally expensive. In this work, Gaussian process optimization was implemented to reduce the number of simulations needed for optimization over multiple parameters. This optimization scheme was designed to selectively generate new benchmarks with high sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. Two benchmark models of spherically nested shells containing plutonium, uranium, tantalum, and water were used in the optimization to match an application containing plutonium plates, stacked in a tantalum reflector, surrounded by water.

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Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks [Slides]

This presentation discusses Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) and how designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear experiments. The presentation poses the question of how this analysis can be performed and states that the answer lies in matching new nuclear experiments with existing benchmark experiments using similarity metrics. By increasing the criticality safety of the application in this work, higher mass limits could be used in PF-4 operations. Additionally, the presentation discusses MCNP6.2®, Whisper-1.1, the software that can be used in this analysis. Also discussed is the fact that International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks rarely match new nuclear applications and that there are significant differences in given set of materials and/or geometry. If there are no benchmarks that match the application, the presentation discusses the possibility of creating new benchmarks. In conclusion, this work presents a Gaussian process (GP) optimization scheme that was used to generate new benchmarks with the highest sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. The Gaussian process optimization successfully designed 3 new experimental benchmarks that were highly correlated to the application of interest and had k eff values near critical. Optimization over c k,i-r has shown that investigating specific isotope reactions for different applications is crucial to designing benchmark experiments. Partial contribution from Pu dominates c k similarity metric. Future work includes testing new stand-alone similarity metrics or new combinations of similarity metrics as the design criterion of this optimization – design criterion is application dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits Derived Using Sensitivity/Uncertainty Tools Case Studies of Benchmarks and Applications

Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP ® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. Whisper-1.0 was originally developed in 2014 and used to assist with nuclear criticality safety validation at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Whisper was upgraded in 2016 to Whisper-1.1 and prepared for release with MCNP6.2. Whisper contains a library of over 1100 critical experiment benchmarks and quantifies neutronic similarity of an application to benchmarks in the library. Using highest similarity benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin (CM) encompassing of the worst-case bias and bias uncertainty at a 99% confidence level for each application. In addition, portions of the margin of subcriticality (MOS) for nuclear data uncertainty and potential code errors are computed. The baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) computed by Whisper is comprised of the CM, MOS nuclear data , and MOS code errors . The Whisper baseline USL is absent a portion of the MOS due to the area of application, which is applied based upon judgment by the criticality safety analyst. An objective of this paper is to present the baseline USL, CM and portions of the MOS as computed by Whisper for comparison with similar sensitivity/uncertainty tools, such as those used by IRSN and ORNL. The initial comparison involves four critical experiment benchmarks: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOLTHERM-001-008, PU-MET-FAST-022-001, AND PU-SOL-THERM-001-001, which have been: 1. modeled independently by LANL, IRSN, and ORNL based upon information provided in the ICSBEP Handbook, 2. are common in S/U libraries for LANL, IRSN, and ORNL, 3. span a range of energy spectrum and fissile material, and 4. taken as applications for the purposes of this study and therefore excluded from use as a benchmark for calculating the upper subcritical limit. Results presented in this paper have been computed using covariance data for all isotopes in ENDF/BVII.0 using a 44-group energy structure. Benchmarks in the Whisper library were run in MCNP6.2 using 100,000 neutrons per cycle, skipping 100 cycles for 500 active cycles. Reference 10 also compares the results for baseline USL with an order of magnitude greater neutrons, using the same total number of cycles with 1,000,000 neutrons per cycle. Subsequent to the results presented in Reference 10 changes were made to the benchmark library, as discussed in Reference 11. Newer results using the revised benchmark library are presented herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits Derived Using Sensitivity/Uncertainty Tools: Case Studies of U233-SOL-THERM-001-001, MIX-COMP-THERM-001-001, IEU-MET-FAST-002-001, LEU-COMP-THERM-001-001, LEU-SOL-THERM-004-001

Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. Whisper-1.0 was originally developed in 2014 and used to assist with nuclear criticality safety validation at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Whisper was upgraded in 2016 to Whisper-1.1 and prepared for release with MCNP6.2 [References 3-5]. Whisper contains a library of over 1100 critical experiment benchmarks and quantifies neutronic similarity of an application to benchmarks in the library. Using highest similarity benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin (CM) encompassing of the worst-case bias and bias uncertainty at a 99% confidence level for each application. In addition, portions of the margin of subcriticality (MOS) for nuclear data uncertainty and potential code errors are computed. The baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) computed by Whisper is comprised of the CM, MOS nuclear data , and MOS code errors . The Whisper baseline USL is absent a portion of the MOS due to the area of application, which is applied based upon judgment by the criticality safety analyst. An objective of this paper is to present the baseline USL, CM and portions of the MOS as computed by Whisper for comparison with similar sensitivity/uncertainty tools, such as those used by IRSN and ORNL. An initial comparison involved four critical experiment benchmarks: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOLTHERM-001-008, PU-MET-FAST-022-001, AND PU-SOL-THERM-001-001, which have been documented in References 10-13. This study extends the comparison to include cases U233-SOL-THERM-001-001, MIX-COMP-THERM-001-001, IEU-MET-FAST-002-001, LEU-COMP-THERM-001-001, LEU-SOL-THERM- 004-001.

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Summary of LANL Critical Benchmark Comparison Study and Revisions for Cases Involving HEU, LEU, MIX, and Pu

This report documents results obtained for revisions made to cases involving Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Intermediate Enriched Uranium (IEU), a mixture of Pu and Uranium (MIX), as well as Pu cases. A previous summary of revisions for HEU an Pu cases was reported and additional investigations into four cases originally presented therein uncovered further revisions which led to better agreement with other transport codes, those cases are updated in this report. The summary of all cases reported in Reference 2 is updated in this report. In addition, a previous summary of revisions for LEU and MIX was reported, a summary of those revisions in reproduced in this report for a comprehensive summary of changes to benchmarks beginning in fiscal year 2020 to current date. The report focuses on the changes made to LANL benchmarks modeled with MCNP6 using ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data that appeared to have discrepant results when compared with results of other codes. Feedback was used to pinpoint review of benchmark input files and to revise them when necessary. This report documents the results of review and revision of specific benchmarks highlighted as possibly discrepant in the comparison study. In addition, there is an effort tied to this work involving collaboration between LANL XCP and NCS Divisions in the development of a shared review/revision procedure and use of a new benchmark repository. LANL has a benchmark library of critical experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook modeled for use with MCNP. This collection is now over 1100 benchmarks, referred to as the Whisper-1.1 library because it is used with the sensitivity/uncertainty package, Whisper, which supports nuclear criticality safety validation and is released with MCNP6.2. The collection, originally created several decades ago, is a combination of smaller collections, which has been revised and expanded, by various groups at LANL over the years. The original authors are no longer at the laboratory and little formal documentation of review and revision of these benchmarks exists today. A branch of the benchmark collection was already the subject of a formal review undertaken by the LANL NCS Division and expanded to include XCP Division.

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FY21 MCNP ® Updates for the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program [Slides]

LANL has devoted a substantial amount effort toward the MCNP6.3 release over the past year by improving many of their processes, infrastructure, and capabilities. Many new resources in support of the MCNP code and DOE NCSP applications are coming online now. LANL is excited to receive feedback on all of the new and improved capabilities that will be packaged with MCNP6.3.

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LANL Critical Benchmark Comparison Study and Subsequent Revision for Cases Involving LEU and MIX

As part of an international collaboration within the DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP), LANL is involved in a comparison study to quantify differences in k-effective results from neutron transport simulations of critical benchmark experiments. The DOE NCSP Mission and Vision details the activity in which the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) leads the study with LANL, ORNL, and LLNL to compare results of various neutron transport codes and nuclear data libraries for ICSBEP benchmarks held in common by the entities. The task statement from the DOE NCSP Five-Year Execution Plan is given as: "The proposal is for IRSN to lead a new intercomparison based on the MORET code with the latest JEFF-3.3 data and ENDF/B-VIII.0 data, when available, using their existing comprehensive selection of 2,714 benchmarks and collate their results together with those from LLNL (COG), LANL (MCNP) and ORNL (SCALE). Due to the large number of benchmarks involved, this effort is envisioned to take three years with an additional year for IRSN to complete a summary report. The benchmark development will be performed independently to minimize modeling errors through discovery and resolution of discrepant results. A summary report will be generated (led by IRSN) to document the results of this study." This report documents results obtained for revisions made to cases involving Intermediate Enriched Uranium (IEU) and a mixture of Pu and Uranium (MIX), with a focus on the changes made to LANL benchmarks modeled with MCNP6 using ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data that appeared to have discrepant results when compared with results of other codes. Feedback was used to pinpoint review of particular benchmark input files and to revise them when necessary. This report documents the results of review and revision of specific benchmarks highlighted as possibly discrepant in the comparison study. In addition, there is an effort tied to this work involving collaboration between LANL XCP and NCS Divisions in the development of a shared review/revision procedure and use of a new benchmark repository.

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