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At least 19 records

Capital Structure for Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Projects

This report provides updated generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) parameter estimates of assumptions that may be used to reflect the cost of financing hydrogen infrastructure deployment. The report also provides parameter estimation for more streamlined financial analysis frameworks such as discounted cash flow and annualized financial models. Parameter values are derived from industry feedback and are reflective of current macro-economic factors such as higher interest rates and higher risk profile of emerging hydrogen technologies, given a myriad of factors such as projects’ construction inexperience, capital costs, and rising inflation, among others.

08 HYDROGEN↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Calculating Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage Incentives on an Avoided Cost Basis

Behind-the-meter (BTM) energy storage offers the potential for shared investment by utilities and their customers, in which both parties share in the costs and benefits of battery investment. Several utilities and a handful of states have begun providing incentives to help customers purchase BTM energy storage, and in exchange, operate that battery on behalf of the customer to realize grid benefits such as meeting peak capacity needs. But there is wide variation in the value and structure of these incentives, suggesting a lack of clarity on the value of BTM storage to the grid and to non-participating customers who fund the incentives for participating customers. This paper provides an objective framework for establishing BTM energy storage incentives based on the avoided cost of generation from a marginal, gas-fired peaking plant. It also conducts several sensitivity analyses to see how those avoided costs vary with emissions pricing, gas prices, plant heat rates, and utility capital structures. This work may be of use to utilities, regulators, and energy system stakeholders in providing a value-based framework for BTM incentive programs that can be used in the absence of policy guidance.

Twitchell, Jeremy B.↗

High-Temperature Superconducting/Ferroelectric Structures for Tunable Microwave Components

At the NASA Lewis Research Center, ferroelectric films, such as SrTiO3 and Ba(x)Sr(1-x)TiO3, are being used in conjunction with YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) high-temperature superconducting (HTS) thin films to fabricate tunable microwave components, such as filters, varactors, and local oscillators. These structures capitalize on the variation of the dielectric constant of the ferroelectric film upon the application of a dc electric field as well as on the low microwave losses exhibited by the high-temperature superconducting films relative to their conventional conductor counterparts. (For example, the surface resistance for a YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) thin film at 10 GHz and 77 K is more than two orders of magnitude lower than that of copper at the same frequency and temperature.) SrTiO3 and Ba(x)Sr(1-x)TiO3 films are used because their crystal structure and lattice parameters are similar to those of YBa2Cu3O(7-delta), thus enabling the growth of highly textured YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) films with high critical current densities on the underlying ferroelectric film, or alternatively, of highly textured ferroelectric film on the underlying YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) film. Our efforts have been concentrated so far in determining the deposition parameters required for optimal ferroelectric thin-film growth (i.e., maximum tunability and lowest loss) and in investigating different varactor configurations to determine which geometry is the most advantageous in terms of tunability, losses, and required bias for a given communication application. For example, we have observed that for optimized SrTiO3 films in a parallel plate capacitor, tunabilities of up to 47 percent and dissipation losses (tan d) of 0.05 are attainable at 1 MHz , 80 K, and within the 0- to 5-V bias range. In contrast, for an interdigital configuration, tunabilities of up to 70 percent and tan d ranging from 0.015 to 0.001 (depending on bias) have been observed at 1 MHz and 77 K within the 0- to 100-V bias range. Efforts are underway to use these results in developing tunable receiver front-end preselect filters as well as in low-phase noise, tunable local oscillators for K-band applications. These components represent a hitherto unavailable technology to meet the stringent performance requirements of foreseeable satellite and wireless communication systems (e.g., bandwidth, in-band insertion losses, out-of-band rejection, and noise, amongst others) in a more advantageous fashion than with currently available technology (e.g., dielectric-filled cavity and waveguide filters, and dielectric resonator oscillators). Prototypes of high-temperature superconducting/ferroelectric tunable components such as a low-phase noise K-band local oscillator, a preselect C-band filter, and a low-loss K-band phase shifter are under development at NASA Lewis.

Miranda, Felix A.↗

High-Temperature Superconducting/Ferroelectric, Tunable Thin-Film Microwave Components

At the NASA Lewis Research Center, ferroelectric films such as SrTiO3 and Ba(sub x)Sr(sub 1-x)TiO3, are being used in conjunction with YBa(sub 2)Cu(sub 3)O(sub 7-delta) high-temperature superconducting thin films to fabricate tunable microwave components such as filters, phase shifters, and local oscillators. These structures capitalize on the variation of the dielectric constant of the ferroelectric film upon the application of a direct-current electric field, as well as on the low microwave losses of high-temperature superconductors relative to their conventional conductor counterparts. For example, the surface resistance for a YBa(sub 2)Cu(sub 3)O(sub 7-delta) thin film at 10 GHz and 77 K is more than two orders of magnitude lower than that of copper or gold at the same temperature and frequency. SrTiO3 and Ba(sub x)Sr(sub 1-x)TiO3 films are used because their crystal structure and lattice parameters are similar to those of YBa(sub 2)Cu(sub 3)O(sub 7-delta), thus enabling the growth of highly textured YBa(sub 2)Cu(sub 3)O(sub 7-delta) films with high critical current densities (i.e., greater than 1 MA/sq cm) on the underlying ferroelectric film, or alternatively, of highly textured ferroelectric film on the underlying YBa(sub 2)Cu(sub 3)O(sub 7-delta) film.

Miranda, Felix A.↗

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Post-impact behavior of composite solid rocket motor cases

In recent years, composite materials have seen increasing use in advanced structural applications because of the significant weight savings they offer when compared to more traditional engineering materials. The higher cost of composites must be offset by the increased performance that results from reduced structural weight if these new materials are to be used effectively. At present, there is considerable interest in fabricating solid rocket motor cases out of composite materials, and capitalizing on the reduced structural weight to increase rocket performance. However, one of the difficulties that arises when composite materials are used is that composites can develop significant amounts of internal damage during low velocity impacts. Such low velocity impacts may be encountered in routine handling of a structural component like a rocket motor case. The ability to assess the reduction in structural integrity of composite motor cases that experience accidental impacts is essential if composite rocket motor cases are to be certified for manned flight. The study described herein was an initial investigation of damage development and reduction of tensile strength in an idealized composite subjected to low velocity impacts.

Highsmith, Alton L.↗

Impact damage in filament wound composite bottles

Increasingly, composite materials are being used in advanced structural applications because of the significant weight savings they offer when compared to more traditional engineering materials. The higher cost of composites must be offset by the increased performance that results from reduced structural weight if these new materials are to be used effectively. At present, there is considerable interest in fabricating solid rocket motor cases out of composite materials, and capitalizing on the reduced structural weight to increase rocket performance. However, one of the difficulties that arises when composite materials are used is that composites can develop significant amounts of internal damage during low velocity impacts. Such low velocity impacts may be encountered in routine handling of a structural component like a rocket motor case. The ability to assess the reduction in structural integrity of composite motor cases that experience accidental impacts is essential if composite rocket motor cases are to be certified for manned flight. While experimental studies of the post-impact performance of filament wound composite motor cases haven been proven performed (2,3), scaling impact data from small specimens to full scale structures has proven difficult. If such a scaling methodology is to be achieved, an increased understanding of the damage processes which influence residual strength is required. The study described herein was part of an ongoing investigation of damage development and reduction of tensile strength in filament wound composites subjected to low velocity impacts. The present study, which focused on documenting the damage that develops in filament wound composites as a result of such impacts, included two distinct tasks. The first task was to experimentally assess impact damage in small, filament wound pressure bottles using x-ray radiography. The second task was to study the feasibility of using digital image processing techniques to assist in determining the 3-D distribution of damage from stereo x-ray pairs.

Highsmith, Alton L.↗

Development of a Reconstruction Methodology Based on X-Ray Computed Tomography to Generate Realistic 3D Concrete Microstructures in MOSAIC

Despite being passive components, concrete structures represent a major capital investment in nuclear power plants. However, some concrete components are critical for the safety and long-term operation of the reactors: the concrete containment building protects the reactors from external aggression. The concrete biological shield (CBS) contains the radiation exiting the reactor to protect equipment and personnel. Depending on the design, the CBS also has a function for supporting the reactor’s systems. This function needs to be ensured in-service and during accident scenarios. After several decades of use, the CBS is exposed to high-energy irradiation over an extended operation time, exceeding the fluence level currently considered detrimental for the concrete’s structural properties. Such conditions occur at different times depending on the reactor’s operation and design. Nevertheless, from the perspective of subsequent license application, it is mandatory to assess the potential effects of prolonged irradiation on concrete. Unlike steel components, concrete structures are built with local constituents (cement, sand, and coarse aggregates) to avoid prohibitive transportation costs. Thus, concrete performance is determined by the tolerance or the susceptibility of its constituents against any aging mechanism. The tolerance against irradiation of the CBSs may vary greatly among the 56 nuclear power plants and 93 nuclear power reactors that form the current US light-water reactor fleet. Irradiation-induced degradation is mainly a result of amorphization-induced expansions of the silicated minerals present in the aggregates. The neutron irradiation–induced expansion varies from one rock-forming mineral to another: well framework–structured silicates (e.g., quartz and feldspars) exhibit higher swelling than chained (e.g., pyroxene) or isolated silicates (e.g., garnet). Silicates make up nearly 90% of the Earth’s crust. Other common minerals present in construction aggregates are carbonates found, for example, in limestone. Irradiated carbonates exhibit only very minor expansions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Technical and Economic Assessment of Span-Loaded Cargo Aircraft Concepts

The benefits are assessed of span distributed loading concepts as applied to future commercial air cargo operations. A two phased program is used to perform this assessment. The first phase consists of selected parametric studies to define significant configuration, performance, and economic trends. The second phase consists of more detailed engineering design, analysis, and economic evaluations to define the technical and economic feasibility of a selected spanloader design. A conventional all-cargo aircraft of comparable technology and size is used as a comparator system. The technical feasibility is demonstrated of the spanloader concept with no new major technology efforts required to implement the system. However, certain high pay-off technologies such as winglets, airfoil design, and advanced structural materials and manufacturing techniques need refinement and definition prior to application. In addition, further structural design analysis could establish the techniques and criteria necessary to fully capitalize upon the high degree of structural commonality and simplicity inherent in the spanloader concept.

Source record↗

Low-Cost, High-Performance Electrochromic Devices (Final Technical Report)

The project goals were to develop low-cost electrochromic (EC) devices with organic dyes to pass ASTM E2141. The low-cost was also attributed to the simplified structure of these devices where capital equipment costs and process complexity to produce them was significantly reduced.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Design optimization studies using COSMIC NASTRAN

The purpose of this study is to create, test and document a procedure to integrate mathematical optimization algorithms with COSMIC NASTRAN. This procedure is very important to structural design engineers who wish to capitalize on optimization methods to ensure that their design is optimized for its intended application. The OPTNAST computer program was created to link NASTRAN and design optimization codes into one package. This implementation was tested using two truss structure models and optimizing their designs for minimum weight, subject to multiple loading conditions and displacement and stress constraints. However, the process is generalized so that an engineer could design other types of elements by adding to or modifying some parts of the code.

Pitrof, Stephen M.↗

ProFAST (Production Financial Analysis Scenario Tool) [SWR-23-88]

The Production Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (ProFAST) provides a quick and convenient in-depth financial analysis for production facilities. The model uses a generally accepted accounting principles analysis framework and provides annual projections of income statements, cash flow statements, and balance sheets. ProFAST allows users to calculate the levelized cost of the produced commodity by providing an expected financial performance, or on the other hand, calculate the financial performance based on an input price. Model inputs generally capital expenditures, operating expenditures, and financing structure. The programmatic approach of ProFAST allows users to easily perform large sensitivity analyses and integrates easily with other python tools.

Kee, Jamie↗

Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks for Constraining Cosmological Parameters Across Multiple Data Sets

Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross-dataset tasks. Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bridging the Gap between Cosmological Simulations with Graph Neural Networks and Domain Adaptation

Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross dataset tasks (up to 28% better relative error and up to almost an order of magnitude better χ 2 ). Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deployable multi-payload platform

Many space payloads with similar mission requirements can be grouped and accommodated on an orbiting platform which provides high-capacity, centralized services. Various concepts for such a platform were devised and evaluated to identify optimal features, interface prospects and areas of technological challenge. Guidelines included minimum and augmented mission models for science and applications payloads for the 1985-90 time period, minimum extension of the Orbiter capability, maximum use of the Orbiter remote manipulator system and capitalization on EVA where applicable. Deployable structures were employed to provide spacious payload berthing on a platform which can be highly-compacted for shuttle delivery.

Jenkins, L. M.↗