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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Total Probability of Collision as a Metric for Finite Conjunction Assessment and Collision Risk Management

On-orbit collision risk is becoming an increasing mission risk to all operational satellites in Earth orbit. Managing this risk can be disruptive to mission and operations, present challenges for decision-makers, and is time-consuming for all parties involved. With the planned capability improvements to detecting and tracking smaller orbital debris and capacity improvements to routinely predict on-orbit conjunctions, this mission risk will continue to grow in terms of likelihood and effort. It is very real possibility that the future space environment will not allow collision risk management and mission operations to be conducted in the same manner as it is today. This paper presents the concept of a finite conjunction assessment-one where each discrete conjunction is not treated separately but, rather, as a continuous event that must be managed concurrently. The paper also introduces the Total Probability of Collision as an analogous metric for finite conjunction assessment operations and provides several options for its usage in a Concept of Operations.

Conjunction Assessment↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

Collision Risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

UTM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

UTM, Method of Compliance, collision risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk Under Off-nominal Conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

risk analysis↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft

NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.

Matney, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk under off-nominal conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk likelihood of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused due to wind is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic simulation model of the vehicle. Likelihood of risk for the flight plan is then analyzed based on generating the probability of collision for each point in the trajectory. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, distance from obstacles, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

Portia Banerjee↗
NASA NTRS2011

Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs

Over the past 50 years, various NASA communities have contributed significantly to maturing NASA s meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD)1 programs to their current state. As a result of these community efforts, and to NASA s credit, NASA s MMOD programs and models are now widely used and respected by the providers and users of both government and commercial satellites, nationally as well as internationally. Satellites have been redesigned to protect critical components from MMOD damage by moving critical components from exterior surfaces to deep inside a satellite s structure. Orbits are monitored and altered to minimize the risk of collision with tracked orbital debris. MMOD shielding added to the International Space Station (ISS) protects critical components and astronauts from potentially catastrophic damage that might result from smaller, untracked debris and meteoroid impacts. The space shuttle, as it orbited Earth, and whether docked to the ISS or not, was optimally oriented to protect its fragile thermal protection and thermal radiation systems from MMOD damage. In addition, astronauts inspected its thermal protection system for MMOD damage before the shuttle reentered Earth s atmosphere; Orion, NASA s capsule to carry astronauts to low Earth orbit, includes designs to mitigate the threat of MMOD damage and provide increased safety to the crew. When a handful of reasonable assumptions are used in NASA s MMOD models, scenarios are uncovered that conclude that the current orbital debris environment has already reached a "tipping point." That is, the amount of debris - in terms of the population of large debris objects, as well as overall mass of debris in orbit - currently in orbit has reached a threshold where it will continually collide with itself, further increasing the population of orbital debris. This increase will lead to corresponding increases in spacecraft failures, which will only create more feedback into the system, increasing the debris population growth rate. The increase thus far has been most rapid in low Earth orbit (LEO), with geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEOs) potentially suffering the same fate, but over a much longer time period. The exact timing and pace of this exponential growth are uncertain, but the serious implications of such a scenario require careful attention because of the strategic importance of U.S. space operations. The Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget contracted with the National Research Council for a study to perform three tasks: review NASA s MMOD programs and efforts, recommend in which of those NASA should increase or decrease its effort or change focus, and determine whether NASA should pursue work in any new MMOD areas. The official letter requesting the study and the full statement of task for the Committee for the Assessment of NASA s Orbital Debris Programs are in Appendixes A and B, respectively.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2007

Detection of Orbital Debris Collision Risks for the Automated Transfer Vehicle

In this paper, we present a general collision risk assessment method, which has been applied through numerical simulations to the Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) case. During ATV ascent towards the International Space Station, close approaches between the ATV and objects of the USSTRACOM catalog will be monitored through collision rosk assessment. Usually, collision risk assessment relies on an exclusion volume or a probability threshold method. Probability methods are more effective than exclusion volumes but require accurate covariance data. In this work, we propose to use a criterion defined by an adaptive exclusion area. This criterion does not require any probability calculation but is more effective than exclusion volume methods as demonstrated by our numerical experiments. The results of these studies, when confirmed and finalized, will be used for the ATV operations.

Peret, L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Wind Characterization for the Assessment of Collision Risk During Flight Level Changes

A model of vertical wind gradient is presented based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wind data. The objective is to have an accurate representation of wind to be used in Collision Risk Models (CRM) of aircraft procedures. Depending on how an aircraft procedure is defined, wind and the different characteristics of the wind will have a more severe or less severe impact on distances between aircraft. For the In-Trail Procedure, the non-linearity of the vertical wind gradient has the greatest impact on longitudinal distance. The analysis in this paper extracts standard deviation, mean, maximum, and linearity characteristics from the NOAA data.

Carreno, Victor↗
NASA NTRS2014

Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

conjunction↗
NASA NTRS2018

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Satellite & International Space Station (ISS) Coordination for CubeSat Deployments to Minimize Collision Risk

The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe global precipitation, extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set, which was launched by H-IIA from Tanegashima in Japan on February 28TH, 2014 directly into its 407km operational orbit. The International Space Station (ISS) is an international human research facility operated jointly by Russia and the USA from NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston Texas. Mission priorities lowered the operating altitude of ISS from 415km to 400km in early 2015, effectively placing both vehicles into the same orbital regime. The ISS has begun a program of deployments of cost effective CubeSats from the ISS that allow testing and validation of new technologies. With a major NASA asset flying at the same effective altitude as the ISS, CubeSat deployments became a serious threat to GPM and therefore a significant indirect threat to the ISS. This presentation describes the specific problem of collision threat to GPM and risk to ISS CubeSat deployment, the process that was implemented to keep both missions safe from collision and maximize their project goals, and the history of the process since implementation.

GPM↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and International Space Station (ISS) Coordination for CubeSat Deployments to Minimize Collision Risk

The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe global precipitation, extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which was launched by H-IIA from Tanegashima in Japan on February 28TH, 2014 directly into its 407km operational orbit. The International Space Station (ISS) is an international human research facility operated jointly by Russia and the USA from NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston Texas. Mission priorities lowered the operating altitude of ISS from 415km to 400km in early 2105, effectively placing both vehicles into the same orbital regime. The ISS has begun a program of deployments of cost effective CubeSats from the ISS that allow testing and validation of new technologies. With a major new asset flying at the same effective altitude as the ISS, CubeSat deployments became a serious threat to GPM and therefore a significant indirect threat to the ISS. This paper describes the specific problem of collision threat to GPM and risk to ISS CubeSat deployment and the process that was implemented to keep both missions safe from collision and maximize their project goals.

Pawloski, James H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

operations↗
NASA NTRS2009

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 13, Issue 4

Although NASA has conducted research on orbital debris since the 1960s, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office is now considered to have been established in October 1979, following the recognition by senior NASA officials of orbital debris as a space environmental issue and the allocation by NASA Headquarters Advanced Programs Office to the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) of funds specifically dedicated for orbital debris investigations. In the 30 years since, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has pioneered the characterization of the orbital debris environment and its potential effects on current and future space systems, has developed comprehensive orbital debris mitigation measures, and has led efforts by the international aerospace community in addressing the challenges posed by orbital debris. In 1967 the Flight Analysis Branch at the Manned Spacecraft Center (renamed the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in 1973) evaluated the risks of collisions between an Apollo spacecraft and orbital debris. Three years later the same group calculated collision risks for the forthcoming Skylab space station, which was launched in 1973. By 1976, the nucleus of NASA s yet-to-be-formed orbital debris research efforts, including Andrew Potter, Burton Cour-Palais, and Donald Kessler, was found in JSC s Environmental Effects Office, examining the potential threat of orbital debris to large space platforms, in particular the proposed Solar Power Satellites (SPS).

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trending in Pc Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Mixed Model

Two satellites predicted to come within close proximity of one another, usually a high-value satellite and a piece of space debris moving the active satellite is a means of reducing collision risk but reduces satellite lifetime, perturbs satellite mission, and introduces its own risks. So important to get a good statement of the risk of collision in order to determine whether a maneuver is truly necessary. Two aspects of this Calculation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) based on the most recent set of position velocity and uncertainty data for both satellites. Examination of the changes in the Pc value as the event develops. Events should follow a canonical development (Pc vs time to closest approach (TCA)). Helpful to be able to guess where the present data point fits in the canonical development in order to guide operational response.

Conjuction Assessment↗