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At least 19 records

CPUC Avoided Transmission and Distribution Cost Study to Support the Avoided Cost Calculator: Avoided Transmission Costs Draft Research Plan

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have been contracted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Energy Division (ED) to perform a study which explores and selects an improved methodology to estimate avoided electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure costs that can be attributed to the presence of distributed energy resources (DERs). PNNL is performing the study for avoided electricity transmission infrastructure costs and LBNL is performing the study for avoided electricity distribution infrastructure costs. This document summarizes CPUC’s research questions related to avoided transmission infrastructure costs and PNNL’s proposed technical approach to answer these questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On-Road Heavy-Duty Low-NOx Technology Cost Study

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a cost analysis for emission control technologies under contract to the California Air Resources Board (CARB). CARB sought incremental cost analysis for emission control technologies for on-road heavy-duty (HD) engines, used in vehicle greater than 14,000 pounds (lbs) gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) to achieve oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions rates significantly lower than those required by current emissions standards. Specifically, incremental costs (without any retail price mark-up) were estimated for representative diesel, natural gas, and gasoline engine and emission aftertreatment systems that were selected to represent potential technology packages that could achieve 0.02 grams per brake horsepower hour (g/bhp-hr) NOx on certification test cycles, including a proposed updated certification test cycle that includes additional low load operating conditions. NREL surveyed stakeholders including industry association groups, Tier 1 suppliers, and engine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to estimate incremental direct and indirect costs. Incremental costs were considered for current engine full useful life (FUL) definitions, as well as with proposed increased FUL and warranty period. The incremental costs were subsequently incorporated in life-cycle cost analyses examining the incremental engine and aftertreatment costs along with life-cycle costs over the various engine FUL scenarios. Life-cycle costs analysis included the incremental upfront cost, fuel consumption changes (changes in fuel economy), diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) consumption changes, and the maximum FUL of the aftertreatment package (major overhaul intervals).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Assessments of Power Plant Performance

This paper summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating power plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity by which NETL evaluates electric power plants. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different power plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines are tailored for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Chemical looping combustion oxygen carrier production cost study

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of commercial production of oxygen carriers (OCs) for large-scale application in a mature, chemical looping combustion (CLC) power generation industry. Estimates of cost were made for two production facility scenarios: 1) build and operate an on-site, OC production facility located at a 550 MW CLC power plant site; and 2) build and operate a central production facility to produce and distribute OCs to the U.S. CLC power generation industry. Two OC production techniques were addressed: mechanical mixing and co-precipitation. Representative OCs that have production raw materials with sufficient commercial availability to support a CLC industry are ilmenite, a natural OC, and four engineered OC types, Fe 2 O 3 -based, CuO-based, NiO-based, and CuFeAlO 4 -based, with candidate OC support materials Al 2 O 3 and TiO 2 . The costs of the OC production raw materials represent the major portion of the OC product cost; the OC production cost, in dollars per kg, has been found to be nearly a linear function of the OC raw materials cost, in dollars per kg. In conclusion, the estimated OC product costs can be used to estimate the maximum OC loss rate yielding a designated CLC power plant cost-of-electricity (COE) target as a development guide, and it has been found that the maximum OC makeup rate, in kg per hour, achieving a designated COE reduction goal relative to a conventional pulverized coal (PC) power plant, will be nearly inversely proportional to the OC production raw materials cost, in dollars per kg.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Techno-economic Assessments

This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity (COE) or cost of product (COP) metrics by which NETL estimates the impact of technology options. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines were initially developed for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen) by substituting the industrial product quantity for the electrical quantity in the equations. The tables contained in this QGESS have been expanded upon relative to previous versions to include values to assume for several industries.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Affordable and Scalable Modular Multifamily Housing: A Case Study on Cost, Construction Time Savings, and Waste Reduction in California: Preprint

Modular construction can significantly reduce waste when compared to traditional methods. This case study evaluates cost, construction time, and waste metrics for a 195-unit stick-built project and for a 66-unit modular project both based in Los Angeles, CA. We partner with SoLa Impact (real estate developer) and Model/Z (modular manufacturer) to evaluate the impact of Model/Z's 1-bedroom modular unit which is produced in a 160,000 sq ft local factory in South Los Angeles. We compare them to similar stick-built/site-built multifamily construction by the same developer in Los Angeles. This study finds that modular production reduced construction waste through precise prefabrication, concentrated workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics while cutting transportation needs, improving project efficiency and lowering associated timelines and costs. Economies of scale are being realized as Model/Z has produced over 500 affordable housing units and supplied for projects up to 188 units, shortening schedules and lowering per-unit costs and supporting affordable housing goals in income-challenged South Los Angeles. Modular methods offer a scalable, resource-efficient pathway to increasing affordable housing supply while reducing total development costs by 10-15% and project timelines by 50%, while simultaneously creating local jobs and training opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Capital Cost Scaling Methodology: Revision 4b Report

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) regularly updates legacy analysis with new studies and cases as the Department of Energy objectives change, technology performance improves, costs are reduced, regulations change, market drivers are established, fuel prices fluctuate, and any number of other relevant factors vary in the market. As legacy studies are updated by NETL, the underlying performance and cost of the cases presented changes, and as such, the methods for interpreting and scaling the cost estimates change. Therefore, it is important that NETL maintain public guidance documents associated with different sets of cost estimates that delineate how a specific set, based on report vintage and/or year published, should be scaled. This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies report, providing guidance on capital cost scaling, should generally be applied to NETL case costs included in the report “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity Revision 4b,” (NETL, 2025) or any cases derived from the cases presented in the referenced report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Model for Hybrid Systems for Production Cost Modeling Studies Considering Ancillary Services

This paper introduces a model for simulating hybrid plants participating in energy and ancillary services for bulk power system studies. The model considers a hybrid plant comprised of a renewable energy source, a thermal power unit, a storage unit, fixed power loads, or any combination of these technologies. The model focuses on Production Cost Modeling (PCM) studies under the assumption of centralized dispatch. We present an example case study to illustrate the use of the model in a single-stage production cost model similar to those conducted by planning agencies. We explore the allocation of behind-the-meter ancillary services products and total energy participation to hybrid plant sub-assets and the resulting impacts on the system's ancillary service allocation. The model is implemented and simulated in a unit commitment problem in the RTS test system, which was modified to include a hybrid plant asset.

ancillary services↗

A Model for Hybrid Systems for Production Cost Modeling Studies Considering Ancillary Services: Preprint

This paper introduces a model for simulating hybrid plants participating in energy and ancillary services for bulk power system studies. The model considers a hybrid plant comprised of a renewable energy source, a thermal power unit, a storage unit, fixed power loads, or any combination of these technologies. The model focuses on Production Cost Modeling (PCM) studies under the assumption of centralized dispatch. We present an example case study to illustrate the use of the model in a single-stage production cost model similar to those conducted by planning agencies. We explore the allocation of behind-themeter ancillary services products and total energy participation to hybrid plant sub-assets and the resulting impacts on the system's ancillary service allocation. The model is implemented and simulated in a unit commitment problem in the RTS test system, which was modified to include a hybrid plant asset.

ancillary services↗

Techno-Economic Case Study: Fermentation Cost Impacts from Selected Critical Material Attributes

This report summarizes analysis conducted to support a case study under the Feedstock-Conversion Interface Consortium (FCIC) focused on techno-economic analysis (TEA) modeling to quantify the economic implications of biomass hydrolysate substrate variability on fermentation performance and resultant biorefinery fuel yields. It is known that fermentation inhibitors or byproducts, as may either come from constituents in the biomass feedstock or imparted through biorefinery processing operations, can detrimentally impact fermentation rates and yields. However, it is often difficult to isolate fermentation impacts to individual components given the complex nature of biomass varying simultaneously in multiple attributes from one lot to another. For this study, we worked with FCIC researchers to obtain data on key fermentation performance metrics, namely productivity rates and conversion yields, across a number of material attribute species previously selected by the researchers as "critical" attributes which may be found in hydrolysate used as microbial carbon sources during fermentation. These data were run through TEA models to estimate resultant impacts on biorefinery economics, reported as minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Overall, the trends in MFSP closely followed fuel yields, in turn tied to fermentation process yields and selectivity, with minimal economic impact from variations in fermentation productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Low-Cost Handle Study for Photovoltaics on Transfer Printed Virtual Substrates

This work expands upon previous research related to transfer printed virtual substrates: a technique for generating low-cost engineered substrates that is not based on wafer reuse. Here, silicon and sapphire are evaluated as candidate low-cost handle materials, validated by metal organic chemical vapor deposition regrowth of GaAs single-junction solar cells. Resulting devices are studied via materials and electrical characterization techniques, including concentration measurements that indicate GaAs//sapphire TPVS open-circuit voltage at >10 suns comparable with identical devices grown on a prime GaAs substrate.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Costs in NETL Studies

Transport, storage, and combined T&S costs are reported in this guideline as first-year break even (FYBE) costs in real 2023 dollars per metric ton (tonne) (2023$/tonne). These FYBE costs are from the perspective of a CO 2 pipeline project owner and/or a CO 2 saline storage project owner, and represent a minimum price the owner(s) can charge a CO 2 capture project owner over 30 operating years to transport and/or store a tonne of CO 2 and remain economically viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

In 2020, the United States had a cumulative 19 gigawatts (GWdc) of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. A growing percentage of these solar installations are paired with battery storage, up from 0.1% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2020. Some states are considering or have already adopted policy mandates to require solar and storage systems. The cost of installing residential solar and battery storage projects remains a barrier to widespread adoption nationwide. For example, the cost of a typical residential retrofit solar and storage system ranges from $\$ 26,153$ to $\$ 37,909$, which is 38% to 100% higher than a standalone PV system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies - Capital Cost Scaling Methodology: Revision 4a Report

Costs are frequently required as part of systems analysis work at NETL. Many of the cost results provided as part of systems analysis work were created with the use of scaling, since obtaining new vendor-supplied cost quotes for each category developed by NETL would be prohibitively time consuming and costly. Additionally, many of the technologies being investigated by NETL have not progressed far enough to have quotable costs. The costs are scaled from a quote for a similar plant configuration by use of various equations that typically employ at least one process parameter (e.g., coal-feed rate, oxidant-feed rate) and often an exponent. The primary purpose of the exponent is to account for economies of scale (i.e., as equipment size gets larger, it gets progressively cheaper to add additional capacity). The purpose of this section of the QGESS report is to provide a standard basis for scaling costs, with specific emphasis on scaling exponents. The intention of having a standardized document is to provide guidelines for proper procedures to reduce the potential of errors and increase credibility through consistency.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Oil Stand-Alone and Co-Hydroprocessing Case Studies: Design, Cost, and Sustainability Based on Process Model Predictions

Refined liquid fuels provide conveniences for road, rail, air, and marine transportation due to high energy density, ease of transport and storage, and existing production and distribution infrastructure. Biomass conversion technologies can help diversify and increase the supply of liquid fuels towards a more robust energy future. The backbone of such development must include reliable, high-volume biomass supply chains and efficient utilization of those resources. These activities, if pursued, will lead to rural infrastructure development and new jobs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗