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DOE OSTI2022

A Retrospective Analysis of Distributed Solar Interconnection Timelines and Related State Mandates

Most distributed residential photovoltaic (PV) systems must secure an interconnection agreement prior to operation that ensures the local electrical system will operate safely within the broader electrical grid. PV installers generally submit an interconnection application to the local utility that provides all the necessary details the utility needs to evaluate the proposed system. To encourage timely execution of this process, many states’ utility commissions have established mandates that limit the maximum number of days allowed for utility review and approval of interconnection for certain small, often residential applications. In this paper, we derive the median and range of cycle times for the pre-installation approval phase of the interconnection process (i.e., from application submission to approval by the utility) across 24 U.S. states, using a data set of approximately 170,000 projects. We evaluate the percentage of projects that are approved within respective state-mandated timelines from 2017– 2019. We further evaluate how timelines have evolved since 2012 for a subset of five states: Arizona, California, Colorado, New Jersey, and New York. The analyses are divided into two size ranges: systems that are ≤10 kilowatts (kW), and systems that are 11–50 kW.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DERiving Community Economic Development through Distributed Solar

This report explores how distributed solar stakeholders can plan and align economic development with existing community priorities while advancing new solar projects. Because the amount of local community influence drives community economic development, we note the need for investment in community ownership models, which are scarce today. This report seeks to outline the current barriers to community-led economic development through distributed solar, best practices for implementation, and recommendations for sector stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DERiving Community Economic Development through Distributed Solar

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Solar Adoption in Orlando: A Household-Level Model for Distribution Resource Planning

Potential for rooftop solar in Florida is massive (47% of retail sales, 3rd overall nationally), yet adoption lags (12th nationally). A 2018 Florida Public Service Commission ruling authorizing solar third-party ownership (leasing) has substantially increased attention on distributed solar in the state. The city of Orlando has committed to a 100% clean-energy target by 2050 and deployment of solar and storage are expected to contribute significantly to reaching the goal. Deployment of customer-adopted solar, unlike utility-procured solar, is uncertain, but known to be spatially correlated with demographic factors and existing adoption. We develop a new method to adapt NREL's dGen model in order to represent building-level agents in adoption forecasts for the Orlando Utility Commission (OUC) service territory. Using the agent-based model we develop projections of solar adoption, subject to scenarios varying future solar costs and valuation, and aggregate adoption predictions by OUC distribution feeder. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in the projected level of adoption by OUC distribution feeder. For instance, 25% of all projected adoption through 2050 would be concentrated on just 5% of feeders and 88% of projected adoption on 50% of feeders. Because of the uncertainty in adoption, bottoms-up solar adoption forecasting methods at the household-level are integral to long-term resource planning by anticipating system needs as customers increasingly adopt distributed solar, storage, electric vehicles, and other distributed energy resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Deployment via Barrier Mitigation or Removal in the Western Interconnection (Final Technical Report)

In 2017, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 2026 Common Case projected that distributed solar PV deployment in the Western U.S. would meet or exceed 16,106 MW of installed capacity by 2026. Of this total, 12,218 MW was projected to be deployed in California and another 3,888 MW was projected to be deployed across Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. However, WIEB recognized that barriers to distributed solar PV deployment could cause the region to fall short of these projections. WIEB identified three types of perceived barriers that might interfere with the deployment of distributed solar PV generation in the West, including: (1) interconnection barriers; (2) utility rate-design barriers; and (3) reliability barriers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solar Forecasting, Net Load Forecasting, and Data-Driven Distributed Solar Visibility Prizes (Final Technical Report)

The American-Made Solar Forecasting Prize, Net Load Forecasting Prize, and Data-Driven Distribution (3D) Solar Visibility Prize is a multimillion-dollar prize competition designed to energize U.S. solar innovation through a series of contests that accelerate the entrepreneurial process from years to months. The activities incentivized by these three prizes will support the governmentwide approach to increase American energy dominance by promoting innovation and early deployment of energy technologies, resulting in wider adoption, which is critical for secure, affordable, and reliable solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report summarizes installed prices and other trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. This report is now being published on a biannual cycle. In 2020, Berkeley Lab has released a more limited Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update, which consists of the same data otherwise published in Tracking the Sun report. The update includes data on more than 1.9 million systems installed through 2019, covering 82% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through that timeframe.As in prior years, the data update focuses to a large degree on installed prices reported for distributed PV projects, describing both historical trends and variability in pricing across projects.With respect to the historical price trajectory, national median installed prices fell, from 2018 to 2019, by roughly 1% for residential systems, remained essentially flat for small non-residential systems, and fell by 4% for large non-residential systems. Across all three customer segments, these are the slowest annual percentage declines since 2006-2008.Pricing continues to vary widely across individual projects, reflecting, among other things, differences in system sizing and design, installer-level pricing strategies, and local market conditions. For example, among residential systems installed in 2019, the lowest 20% were priced below $3.1/W, while the highest 20% were above $4.5/W. The distributions for non-residential systems exhibit similarly wide spreads.In addition to data on installed prices, the data update also covers a broad range of trends related to distributed PV system design, including: system sizing, module efficiency, module-level power electronics, inverter-loading ratios, solar+storage installations, mounting configuration, panel orientation, third-party ownership, and customer segmentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equity-driven Planning of Distributed Solar PV using Optimal Transport

Typically, distribution system planning processes do not explicitly incorporate energy equity considerations, such as identifying consumers most affected by energy costs and determining how investments in the distribution system can address existing energy burden imbalances. This paper proposes a novel optimal transport (OT)-based method to improve the energy burden distribution of consumers. The approach involves the strategic siting and sizing of solar PV in order to assist customers with high energy burden and improve the overall energy burden distribution of the community. The desired energy burden distribution is defined using the equal distribution equivalent (EDE) concept. The OT-based method is then used to estimate the distributed solar PV capacity to be installed at various locations and the tariffs to be adjusted, all while improving the energy burden distribution and providing valuable insights into distributed generation (DG) planning. The results on IEEE 37 bus test system demonstrate how DG planning, considering EDE and OT, can help reduce the energy burden of low-income consumers. Additionally, the approach also reveals optimal tariff adjustments needed to ensure revenue neutrality for distribution utilities.

Optimal transport, equal distribution equivalent, ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the Relationship Between Higher Photovoltaic Module Efficiency and the Adoption of Distributed Solar

The purpose of this study is understanding the relationship between module efficiency, system costs, and the economic and adoption potential of distributed rooftop solar. We use the dGen model to project the economic potential and adoption of high-efficiency photovoltaic (PV) modules across a range of efficiencies and cost scenarios in the continental United States. Our results reveal that high-efficiency modules can modestly increase the projected adoption of distributed solar, but system capital costs may play a larger role in changing the amount of projected adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building efficiency, electrification, and distributed solar PV bill savings under time-based retail rate designs

Building energy technologies and distributed generation, including energy efficiency (EE), distributed solar PV (DPV), and building electrification, are critical to meeting decarbonization goals. Rate design may play an important role in determining the customer economics of adopting these technologies, but it is unclear whether – and to what extent – current rate design trends support or impede progress toward these goals. In this study, we answer these questions by quantifying the range of residential customer bill impacts of EE, DPV, and building electrification investments under current and emerging time-based retail electricity rate designs (i.e., time-of-use, event-based pricing, coincident demand charges, and real time pricing). We also compare these customer bill savings to power system and societal benefits and assess how well the investments are compensated relative to the societal value they provide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Solar in Tamil Nadu

With India’s ambitious renewable energy targets and decreasing rooftop solar prices, customer adoption of rooftop solar on Tamil Nadu’s distribution network is set to increase in the coming years. With that comes the challenge of how to assess the impact of these emerging distributed energy resources. In an effort to help with such an assessment, NREL has created a holistic analysis framework for Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company (TANGEDCO). The Emerging technologies Management and Risk evaluation on distribution Grids Evolution (EMeRGE) analysis framework and tool will help TANGEDCO and other distribution companies (DISCOMs) in India analyze new interconnection applications and evaluate the system risk impact over time with new emerging DERs.

Children's Investment Fund Foundation↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Demand-Side Opportunity: The Roles of Distributed Solar and Building Energy Systems in a Decarbonized Grid

Building energy systems represent a significant and largely untapped demand-side grid resource. Buildings use about 75% of electricity in the United States, including around 80% of peak demand, meaning that changes in building energy use have significant implications for grid operations. Building energy technologies-including energy-efficient devices, flexible loads, and energy storage-can be coordinated and aggregated to perform similar functions as centralized grid assets. Recent advances in information and communication (ICT) technologies have significantly improved building energy technology automation, coordination, and aggregation capabilities. With declining costs and technological advances, building energy systems can increasingly compete with conventional grid assets such as natural gas plants. Building energy technologies enable the deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV). Energy-efficient buildings allow DPV to meet greater shares of building load while flexible loads and energy storage can reshape building load profiles to optimize the on-site use of DPV. Optimized on-site use of DPV increases the value proposition for DPV adoption and can help utilities cost-effectively integrate higher levels of DPV penetration. Together, DPV and building energy technologies could help grids achieve deep decarbonization more quickly and cost-effectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.

backup power↗

DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Solar and Storage Adoption Modeling

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is analyzing the rapidly increasing role of energy storage in the electrical grid through 2050 through its Storage Futures Study. In one phase of the study, NREL used the laboratory's Distributed Generation Market (dGen) model to examine the various future distributed storage capacity adoption scenarios, results, and implications.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar Utility Tariff and Revenue Impact Analysis: A Guidebook for International Practitioners

Depending on a range of technical, economic, policy, regulatory, and market-related factors, the adoption of DPV may have a net positive or negative financial impact on utilities and ratepayers. This guidebook provides a methodological approach for quantifying the net financial impact of DPV on utilities (in the form of “net revenue losses”) and ratepayers (in the form of “net tariff impacts”). Written for technical staff at utilities, regulatory bodies, energy ministries, research institutes, and civil society organizations who wish to better understand the financial impacts of DPV in their jurisdiction, this guidebook can be used to inform important decisions regarding DPV compensation, tariff design, and regulatory cost allocations, among other aspects. It is focused exclusively on customer-sited DPV systems and adopts a primarily cost-based (as opposed to an equally valid value-based) perspective to understanding DPV financial impacts. The approach for calculating net revenue losses can be applied in nearly any utility jurisdiction, regardless of institutional arrangements, business models, or regulatory paradigms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Analysis Framework for Distribution Network DER Integration Analysis in India: Distributed Solar in Tamil Nadu

This report is part of a two-part series that represents a year-long collaboration with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) on power sector planning. The first report in this series, the Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector 2017-2030 report outlines NREL’s work with TANGEDCO's electricity sector planning department to develop a model of the State’s power system and evaluate multiple scenarios of system growth given resource constraints, costs of technologies, and power sector policies. This second report in this series focuses on the rapidly transforming distribution network in the State. The report outlines a framework developed by NREL with TANGEDCO's distribution utility to quickly and accurately analyze the impacts of integrating renewable energy, specifically rooftop solar PV onto Tamil Nadu's distribution system. Together these studies help to prepare Tamil Nadu for a rapidly transforming power system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar Quality and Safety in India: Key Challenges and Potential Solutions

The quality and safety of solar systems and their installation has become a concern for investors, regulators, consumers, and Discoms in India. The push for low prices and lack of quality standards are driving project developers to install low quality products, with poor system design and execution on-site. Existing literature and stakeholder interviews point to the rampant use of low quality, sub-standard solar products in India. These products deliver less energy than expected, or have high detrition rates, or have lower product life–all of which are serious issues for developers whose return on investment depend on the amount of power generation from these solar systems for the expected life of the project. Equipment which does not conform to the minimum quality standards also creates safety risks for the distribution network. Performance and safety concerns lower investor and consumer confidence in solar products with the potential to threaten market development. This report formulates a set of recommendations to concerned authorities in India to improve the quality and safety of rooftop solar systems. Primary and secondary sources are employed to understand the current solar quality and safety scenario in India to provide the basis for future recommendations. An overview of international experiences and lessons learned on solar quality and safety issues is also conducted to understand potential solutions for India.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗