A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Drought impacts on microbial trait distribution and feedback to soil carbon cycling
Abstract Quantifying the impact of drought on microbial processes and its consequences for soil carbon cycling is hindered by the lack of underlying mechanistic understanding. Therefore, there is a need to scale up the physiological response to changing water status from individual soil microbes to collective communities across different ecosystems. Here we propose the use of a framework that incorporates trait‐based ecology to link drought‐impacted microbial processes to rates of soil carbon decomposition and stabilisation. We briefly synthesise existing knowledge on the effects of drought on microbial physiology at the individual to community scale, before integrating this understanding within a framework incorporating life‐history strategy, ecological strategy and biochemistry. This framework highlights a dynamic allocation to high yield (Y), resource acquisition (A) and stress tolerance (S) pathways as environmental conditions change. Y‐A‐S strategies represent sets of traits that tend to correlate due to physiological or evolutionary trade‐offs. This framework enables assessment of microbial processes along two key environmental gradients of water and resource availability, both of which are constrained by drought. The variable chemistry of biomass and necromass produced under different physiological strategies in response to drying–rewetting impacts organic matter decomposition and stabilisation in soils, and should also be considered when quantifying soil carbon balance. We highlight that diversion of resources away from microbial growth can alter soil organic matter chemistry and its persistence depending on the kind of microbial compounds produced. To advance such a framework, we highlight avenues of research that would enable the further identification and quantification of traits linked to Y‐A‐S strategies and the physiological outcomes at the community level under drought and rewetting, and conclude by hypothesising how ecosystem‐level changes might feedback on to the soil carbon cycle. A scalable understanding of microbial drought‐response mechanisms affecting soil carbon cycling will transform the way microbial physiology is represented in ecosystem studies. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production and Land Fallowing in California's Central Valley in 2015
The ongoing drought in California substantially reduced surface water supplies for millions of acres of irrigated farmland in California's Central Valley. Rapid assessment of drought impacts on agricultural production can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to mitigation of drought impacts. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and increases in fallow acreage associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. We describe an approach for monthly and seasonal mapping of uncultivated agricultural acreage developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, NASA, and the California Department of Water Resources to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of uncultivated agricultural acreage from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to time-series data from Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper), ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus), OLI (Operational Land Imager), and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Our effort has been focused on development of indicators of drought impacts in the March-August timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted across 650 fields from March-September in 2014 and 2015. We present the algorithm along with updated results from the accuracy assessment, and data and maps of land fallowing in the Central Valley in 2015.
Valleys↗
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Detecting Short Term Drought Impact in the Southwest US Using GOES-16 ABI Data
Satellite optical remote sensing has been often used for monitoring broad-region vegetation change, for example, phenology observations and the year-to-year leaf area index (LAI) responses to climate oscillations. However, rapid responses of vegetation to day-to-day weather perturbations are difficult to detect using available optical remote sensing satellites because of the low frequency of the observations. Sun-synchronous optical sensors, such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), can observe a target area once a day. Daily observations cannot distinguish whether short-term changes in Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) are actual LAI change or cloud contamination. NOAA’s GOES satellites make observations every 10 to 15 minutes using the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). In this study, we used the Geostationary-NASA Earth Exchange (GeoNEX) L1G Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) ABI data to detect drought impact on NDVI time series in the Southwest US. We used an empirical method to cancel the BRDF effect of varying solar zenith angle. The ABI was able to detect short term drought impacts as well as an NDVI decrease in the dry season. Increased NDVI right after a rainfall followed by an immediate decrease was observed. These ABI NDVI changes were correlated with the RGB time series from PhenoCam Network data. Results indicated that the ABI can be used for short-term analysis of LAI and can detect small LAI changes caused by drought in an arid area, suggesting the potential for its use in near-real time drought monitoring applications.
ABI↗
The 2010 Russian Drought Impact on Satellite Measurements of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence: Insights from Modeling and Comparisons with the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)
We examine satellite-based measurements of chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) over the region impacted by the Russian drought and heat wave of 2010. Like the popular Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that has been used for decades to measure photosynthetic capacity, SIF measurements are sensitive to the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation (fPAR). However, in addition, SIF is sensitive to the fluorescence yield that is related to the photosynthetic yield. Both SIF and NDVI from satellite data show drought-related declines early in the growing season in 2010 as compared to other years between 2007 and 2013 for areas dominated by crops and grasslands. This suggests an early manifestation of the dry conditions on fPAR. We also simulated SIF using a global land surface model driven by observation-based meteorological fields. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the drought and heat impacts on SIF in terms of the timing and spatial extents of anomalies, but there are some differences between modeled and observed SIF. The model may potentially be improved through data assimilation or parameter estimation using satellite observations of SIF (as well as NDVI). The model simulations also offer the opportunity to examine separately the different components of the SIF signal and relationships with Gross Primary Productivity (GPP).
vegetation↗
Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally
Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Exacerbated drought impacts on global ecosystems due to structural overshoot
Vegetation dynamics are affected not only by the concurrent climate but also by memory-induced lagged responses. For example, favourable climate in the past could stimulate vegetation growth to surpass the ecosystem carrying capacity, leaving an ecosystem vulnerable to climate stresses. This phenomenon, known as structural overshoot, could potentially contribute to worldwide drought stress and forest mortality but the magnitude of the impact is poorly known due to the dynamic nature of overshoot and complex influencing timescales. Here, we use a dynamic statistical learning approach to identify and characterize ecosystem structural overshoot globally and quantify the associated drought impacts. We find that structural overshoot contributed to around 11% of drought events during 1981-2015 and is often associated with compound extreme drought and heat, causing faster vegetation declines and greater drought impacts compared to non-overshoot related droughts. The fraction of droughts related to overshoot is strongly related to mean annual temperature, with biodiversity, aridity and land cover as secondary factors. These results highlight the large role vegetation dynamics play in drought development and suggest that soil water depletion due to warming-induced future increases in vegetation could cause more frequent and stronger overshoot droughts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States
The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Forcing data (CESM2/CMIP6) for projection of drought impacts (2015-2100) at the K34 site in Manaus, Brazil
Historical and projected output data variables extracted and derived from Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. CESM2 is a fully coupled Earth system model used in simulations of Earth's past, present, and future climates (Danabasoglu et al., 2020). Variables in this dataset are in six-hourly resolution, and include air temperature (both in K and ℃), specific humidity (kg kg-1), air pressure (Pa), relative humidity (%), and vapor pressure deficit (kPa). CESM2 was the only CMIP6 model that provided VPD at the high temporal resolution required for this analysis. Data are included in .csv files, and the text file CESM2-CMIP6_forcing_K34-Manaus_headers.txt provides descriptions of data file headers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Detecting drought impact on terrestrial biosphere carbon fluxes over contiguous US with satellite observations
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Junjie Liu↗
Impact of drought on global food security by 2050
Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Impact of Drought Stress on Sorghum bicolor Yield, Deconstruction, and Microbial Conversion Determined in a Feedstocks-to-Fuels Pipeline
Sorghum is an attractive feedstock for biobased fuel and chemical production because it is familiar to farmers, naturally drought tolerant, and versatile as a food, feed, and fuel crop. Although sorghum is a promising feedstock, particularly in regions that experience drought stress, little is known about how drought conditions impact the ease of conversion of sorghum to fuels and products. This study combines agronomic field trials with a high-throughput experimental pipeline to explore the field performance and liquid biofuel (bisabolene) yields resulting from three sorghum types (photosensitive forage sorghum, optimized grain sorghum, and drought-resistant grain sorghum) grown under pre- and postflowering water limitations in two different California locations. Multiple drought treatments are compared to the control, as the timing (preflowering versus postflowering) of drought stress elicits different survival strategies and corresponding impacts on yield and composition. Forage-type sorghum maintained the highest biomass yields across all irrigation conditions and locations. Glucose and xylose yields resulting from ionic liquid pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification were not significantly impacted by irrigation treatments but differed by location and genotype. However, Rhodosporidium toruloides grown on the resulting plant hydrolysates unexpectedly produced higher titers of bisabolene for drought-stressed sorghum samples regardless of genotype.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Global variations in critical drought thresholds that impact vegetation
ABSTRACT Identifying the thresholds of drought that, if crossed, suppress vegetation functioning is vital for accurate quantification of how land ecosystems respond to climate variability and change. We present a globally applicable framework to identify drought thresholds for vegetation responses to different levels of known soil-moisture deficits using four remotely sensed vegetation proxies spanning 2001–2018. The thresholds identified represent critical inflection points for changing vegetation responses from highly resistant to highly vulnerable in response to drought stress, and as a warning signal for substantial vegetation impacts. Drought thresholds varied geographically, with much lower percentiles of soil-moisture anomalies in vegetated areas covered by more forests, corresponding to a comparably stronger capacity to mitigate soil water deficit stress in forested ecosystems. Generally, those lower thresholds are detected in more humid climates. State-of-the-art land models, however, overestimated thresholds of soil moisture (i.e. overestimating drought impacts), especially in more humid areas with higher forest covers and arid areas with few forest covers. Based on climate model projections, we predict that the risk of vegetation damage will increase by the end of the twenty-first century in some hotspots like East Asia, Europe, Amazon, southern Australia and eastern and southern Africa. Our data-based results will inform projections on future drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provide an effective tool for drought management.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management
Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.
Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗
Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity
The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.
carbon cycle↗
Root litter decomposition rates and impacts of drought are regulated by ecosystem legacy
In grassland ecosystems, about two-thirds of productivity is in roots, and therefore roots constitute a major soil organic matter input. However, influences on the rate of root litter decomposition remain unresolved, especially in the context of land-use conversion and climate change. Ecosystem legacy can affect root decomposition rates via impacts on substrate chemistry and soil environments, and this may manifest in responses of decomposition to changing temperature and moisture. Here we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic legacy effects and moderate drought on root litter decomposition rates in five "Land Use History Types": crop fields, cow pastures, remnant tallgrass prairie, and prairie restored from crop fields and pastures. We measured root losses of mass, carbon, and nitrogen over 11 months. Further, soil bulk density was unimportant for decomposition, but soil moisture content and temperature were relevant for decomposition rates while time since disturbance predicted decomposition initiation times. Furthermore, soil moisture and temperature dynamics alone could not explain the responses of decomposition rates to drought, which were positively correlated to time since disturbance. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic legacy impacts decomposition rates in grasslands, especially when soil moisture and temperature dynamics are substantially altered, and mediates soil community responses to drought.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs
This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗