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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Design and Development of an Aircraft Electric Powertrain Test Stand

Recent advancements in battery technology and power electronics are enabling novel approaches to powered flight that rely on fully electric or hybrid-electric powertrain systems. To mitigate the risk surrounding such unproven systems, it is necessary to characterize their performance on a component-wide and system-wide basis. In this paper, we discuss the design and development of an electric powertrain test stand that can collect high-fidelity data of motor, controller, and battery performance, thereby allowing us to determine system performance, efficiencies, and thermal characteristics.

test stand↗

Common Mode Current Challenges and Opportunities in Electric Powertrain Testing

During the development of novel electric powertrain (EP) components key parameters may be evaluated by test before a fully integrated EMI design is implemented. However, insufficiently mitigated EMI could impact the test equipment and test measurements. This risk is particularly valid with high voltage wide bandgap switching converters which enable high efficiency but can increase the EMI source function producing high levels of common mode (CM) current. Test facility equipment may be susceptible to the CM current from these converters causing test delays or measurement errors. Characterization of the common mode EMI of a powertrain component by analysis and/or measurement and assessment of the test facility EMC design can reduce this risk to yield efficient tests and successful measurements.

electromagnetic interference↗

Hybrid Modeling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Electric Powertrain for Fault Detection and Diagnostics

This paper shows the application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived principles and empirical equations, as well as fully connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. It has already been applied to Li-ion batteries in the past, and in this work, we extend the applications to other components of an electric powertrain, namely electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brushless DC motor with connected propeller. Training and testing of the model is carried out using experimental data from Li-ion battery discharge and powertrain testing in a laboratory environment.

Physics-Informed Machine Learning↗

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model↗

Developing Fuel Cell Electric Powertrain Architectures for Commercial Vehicles

Here, this article addresses the architecture development for a commercial vehicle fuel cell electric powertrain by establishing a clear multi-step formalized workflow that employs a unique technoeconomic solution for architecture selection. The power capability of the fuel cell, the energy capacity and chemistry of the electrical energy storage (battery), the DC-DC converter (including the input current rating and isolation resistance requirements), the traction drive solution, the on-board hydrogen storage solution, and the real-time power-split management of the fuel cell and the battery are all considered and developed in this effort. The methods were used to select architecture for Class 8 urban, regional, and line haul applications. When compared to traditional load-following power-split controllers, an energy management power-split controller can increase system energy efficiency by up to 19.5%. The energy-efficient power-split controller may increase the required battery capacity for an equivalent life by up to 2.6 times. The impact on the total cost of ownership (TCO) for a variety of financial cases demonstrates that high C-rate capable batteries have the potential to provide better TCO solutions over a six-year vehicle life than low C-rate capable batteries. To achieve TCO parity with the 600 A non-isolated DC-DC converter case, the specific choice of the fuel cell DC-DC converter to achieve a target power output based on current levels (from 500 A to 2400 A) shows that efficiency decreases and cost increases due to the higher current, requiring fuel cell prices to decrease by $50–$100/kW, $60–$110/kW, and $100–$220/kW for urban, regional, and line haul applications, respectively. Key recommendations for powertrain system architectures are provided, with specifics based on vehicle dynamics, mission and application characteristics, end customer use-case profile, critical powertrain component costs, and architecture selection cost function. This study rigorously demonstrates the interplay of the above parameters, with a focus on TCO, and provides application decision-makers with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architecture selection process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains - Task 2: Power Quality Filtering Using Nanocrystalline Soft Magnetic Inductor

The NASA RTAPS program on AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Power Train is a multi-year joint project with Pratt & Whitney (P&W), Collins Aerospace (CA), and RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC). This research program focuses on the high-voltage distribution issues that present a significant technological obstacle in the adoption of Electrified Aviation Propulsion (EAP) systems. One challenge to the adoption of high-voltage distribution systems with power electronic converters is the need for filter elements to limit the generation and propagation of noise, protect the cable systems from premature aging and prevent against excessive heating within subcomponents due to high-frequency induced currents. While increased distribution voltages aide in reducing the cable mass for a fixed power system, the associated mass with the filtering elements for power electronic converter can grow with increasing distribution voltages – thereby mitigating any benefit associated with increasing the distribution system voltage. To enable high-voltage distribution systems with high system specific power densities, new magnetic materials must be developed. Therefore, the second task of the NASA RTAPS program is associated with the design and application of advanced soft magnetic components for Megawatt class electric propulsion systems, specifically the motor drive system. This report covers the collaborative work between NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), RTRC, P&W and CA in the development of three types of magnetic components over the span of the three-year program. These critical magnetic components are the DC side EMI filter, which limits the propagation of harmful electromagnetic noise to the rise of the distribution system, and the AC side damping with the dv/dt filter, which limits the fast rise time of the power electronic converter output voltage to limit the degradation on the cable/motor insulation systems. Each of these components are investigated from component level design and are optimized at the system level with a combined modelling and testing effort. In the final experimental evaluation of the NASA developed soft magnetic material with a dv/dt filter, a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) magnetic core and the GRC magnetic core are optimized and loaded at 320Arms to evaluate their difference in performance. After a run time of 30 minutes in a MW-class motor driver at RTRC, the NASA GRC cores were found to not only offer a lower temperature rise of nearly 25°𝐶, but also a reduction in measured core loss of 25% (12.75W to 9.5W).

Elecrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Co-Optimization Scheme for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Powertrain and Exhaust Emission Control System Using Future Speed Prediction

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been an effective solution for improved vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emission pollution. In this paper, a co-optimization scheme is proposed to optimize fuel efficiency for HEVs. Here, the proposed optimization scheme uses obtainable future speed prediction as the basis to optimally tune control parameters for the existing powertrain control system. The ramp-up time of the catalyst temperature to reach its light-off level in the exhaust emission system is also considered as an additional optimization constraint to reduce emission. The Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model which is an integrated model for a powertrain and exhaust emission system is validated using real data from several real driving cycle scenarios. Then, to simplify the formulation of the proposed algorithm, the model for the optimization for powertrain and exhaust emission systems is represented by a set of equivalent neural network (NN) models learned using the data generated from the well-validated Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model. Using NN models, a co-optimization algorithm is established that provides an optimal tuning of some fuel-sensitive powertrain control parameters using future speed prediction, leading to a novel co-optimization algorithm, achieving on average a further 9.22% fuel savings for the Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Powertrain Performance and Total Cost of Ownership Analysis for Class 8 Yard Tractors and Refuse Trucks

Advanced powertrain technologies, specifically fuel cell electric powertrains, have gained attention as viable alternatives for medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles. However, it is unclear how these alternative powertrain vehicles stack up against their diesel counterparts in terms of performance and total cost of ownership (TCO). Furthermore, there are vehicle segments within the M/HD sector that have remained unstudied for fuel cell electric applications. This analysis aims to provide a comparative scoping-level TCO and performance analysis for two heavy-duty vocation vehicles (Class 8 U.S. port-side yard tractor and Class 8 U.S.-based refuse truck) for both conventional diesel and heavy-duty fuel cell electric (HDFC) powertrains. The refuse truck analysis also considered compressed natural gas powertrains (CNG) for comparison. The analysis includes seven timeframes (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050) for comparison. This simplified TCO analysis includes only direct costs (fuel price, glider purchase price, and operating & maintenance costs) and excludes any associated indirect cost (e.g., dwell time costs and other opportunity based costs). Representative drive cycles for each vehicle were based on on-board GPS logged data and chosen by the analysis team to represent average, non-extreme driving conditions. At the time the analysis was performed, the Inflation Reduction Act was not in effect and therefore any potential subsidies and future cost reductions enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act were not included. Based on the operational setpoints used in this analysis, HDFC powertrains for both yard tractors and refuse trucks have the potential to achieve TCO advantages over conventional diesel powertrains (and CNG for refuse truck applications) in the near- to mid-term future while meeting the necessary duty cycle performance requirements. Yard tractors and refuse trucks spend a significant amount of time operating at low speeds, with long durations of idling, and experience numerous start/stop occurrences. These operational characteristics favor fuel cell performance as fuel cells operate with higher efficiencies at lower percentages of total power output. Conversely, conventional diesel and CNG engines are most efficient at higher percentages of total power output. This helps HDFC powered yard tractors and refuse trucks realize improved fuel economy when compared to their diesel counterparts, which helps reduce total fuel costs and therefore, total TCO. The analysis demonstrates that fuel prices play a significant role in determining TCO for each vehicle and should remain an R&D focus area. Overall, under the analysis' specified conditions, HDFC yard tractors have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel yard tractors as early as 2025. For refuse trucks, HDFC refuse trucks have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel and CNG refuse trucks in 2030 and 2040, respectively.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Simulation-Based Assessment of Energy Consumption of Alternative Powertrains in Agricultural Tractors

The objectives of this research were to develop simulation models for agricultural tractors with different powertrain technologies and evaluate the energy consumption in typical agricultural operations. Simulation models were developed for conventional, parallel hybrid electric, series hybrid electric, fuel cell hybrid, and battery electric powertrains. Autonomie vehicle simulation software (version 2022) was used for the simulations and the tractor models were simulated in two tilling cycles and in a road transport cycle with a trailer. The alternative powertrains were configured to have at least the same tractive performance as the conventional, diesel engine-powered tractor model. The simulation results showed that the potential of the parallel and series hybrid powertrains to improve energy efficiency depends heavily on the tractor size and the operating cycle conditions. The fuel cell hybrid and battery electric powertrains have a higher potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions but still have inherent technical challenges for practical operation. The battery-powered electric tractor would require improvements in the storage energy density to have a comparable operational performance in comparison to other powertrains. The fuel cell hybrid tractor already provided an adequate operating performance but the availability of hydrogen and refueling infrastructure could be challenging to resolve in the farming context.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Hardware-in-the-Loop Investigation of Emissions Challenges in Hybrid Medium- and Heavy-Duty Powertrains Using a Pre-Production Diesel-Electric Parallel Hybrid System With and Without Stop-Start Operation

Hybrid electric powertrains are a growing market in medium- and heavy-duty applications. There is a lack of available information to understand the challenges in the integration of engine platforms into electrified powertrains, such as cold-start, restart, and load-reduction effects on emissions and emission control devices. Results from the Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT) cycle using a conventional medium-duty diesel engine were compared with those of a parallel hybrid architecture. Oak Ridge National Laboratory in collaboration with the US Department of Energy and Odyne Systems, LLC developed a powertrain in a hardware-in-the-loop environment, integrating the Odyne Systems, LLC medium-duty parallel hybrid system, which was used for the hybrid portion of this study. Experiments under the HHDDT cycle showed increasing improvements in fuel consumption and engine-out emissions with the integration of stop/start, hybrid, and hybrid with stop/start. However, the effects of load reduction and exhaust temperature on the thermal management strategy have shown an increase in fueling in the second part of the HHDDT cycle. Four configurations of medium-duty electrification were studied and contributed to building a unique data set containing combustion, emissions, and system integration data. Each electrification level was compared with the conventional baseline. The calibration of the conventional engine was not altered for this study. Opportunities to tailor the combustion process were identified with the stop/start strategy.

Lerin, Chloe↗

Controls for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion

Advanced electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) concepts with integrated power, propulsion, and thermal systems require the development of equally sophisticated controllers to fly safe and efficient missions. Hybrid electric aircraft utilize electric machines mechanically coupled to the engine shafts to extract and insert power for a variety of purposes. Additionally, electric machines may drive propulsive fans pulling from a combination of on-board energy storage devices and engine extracted power. NASA’s investment in hybrid electric aircraft hardware-in-the-loop testing enables controls research on representative engine models using a novel emulation and scaling methodology. High-voltage, high-power electrical powertrain presents several technical risks at altitude. High-power requires high efficiency to minimize losses. Superconducting electric machines and power distribution research at NASA has identified key challenges with potential controls solutions. These risks necessitate the development of controllers robust to model uncertainty, disturbances, and fault conditions. System health management and fault detection schemes play an important role in a multi-layer controls approach that utilizes a supervisor which oversees inner loops for the highly coupled power, propulsion, and thermal systems. Such a supervisory controller enables coordinates energy transfer between engines, energy storage devices, electric machines, propulsors, and heat exchangers. Existing methods have shown an improvement in engine operability using the hybrid electric powertrain.

Halle E Buescher↗

Establishing Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Concepts—How AATT identified viable propulsion concepts and established foundational technologies

In the mid 2000’s NASA challenged the aeronautics industry to identify the routes for achieving ambitious improvements in fuel burn, emission, and noise reductions. These so-called “N+3” studies were exploring broad changes three commercial aircraft generations, or nominally 30 years, in the future. Many intriguing propulsion-airframe integrated solutions were proposed and pursued, which incorporated technologies such as high-aspect-ratio wings, boundary-layer ingestion, and hybrid-electric powertrains. When the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) Project introduced “Technical Challenge 5.2-Establish viable concept for 5-10 MW hybrid gas-electric propulsion system for a commercial transport aircraft” in 2014, industry was very skeptical that electrified propulsion could make a significant impact in commercial air transport over the subsequent 30 years. Yet there were many practical reasons why improvements in electric power system and electric powertrains were advancing at a rapid rate and could lead to paradigm changes in aircraft propulsion. The challenge to the aeronautics community was to discover how to harness this power revolution and apply it to aircraft propulsion. This talk summarizes the approaches and achievements from the Hybrid Gas-Electric Propulsion Concept Technical Challenge that concluded in 2019. The balanced portfolio of concepts studies anchored with practical technology development demonstrated that electrified aircraft propulsion is an aircraft revolution whose time has come.

electric propulsion↗

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Controls Hardware Testing

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) systems hold potential for the reduction of aircraft fuel burn and emissions. To realize this potential for single-aisle aircraft, control technology challenges associated with EAP designs are increasing the demand for Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) studies that address the tightly coupled electrical powertrain and turbofan propulsion systems. Reconfigurable HIL testbeds enable the study of integrated supervisory control and control approaches that augment engine shaft torques to improve performance. This paper presents an overview of conceptual EAP controls architecture testing in two HIL testbeds. The NASA Electric Aircraft Testbed provides the ability for megawatt class electric powertrain testing for technology maturation. A 100 kilowatt testbed, the Hybrid Propulsion Emulation Rig, allows for rapid controls technology trade studies. In both testbeds, controls testing is performed by implementing the electrical power system in hardware while turbomachinery is emulated via electric machines that are commanded by a real-time model and controls. A novel scaling algorithm is applied to emulate the inertial loads of the turbomachinery that causes the electric machines to respond in a fashion similar to that of the full-scale propulsion system they represent. Results demonstrate desired control performance at both testbed scales for the conceptual EAP architecture.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Controls Hardware Testing

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) systems hold potential for the reduction of aircraft fuel burn and emissions. To realize this potential for single-aisle aircraft, control technology challenges associated with EAP designs are increasing the demand for Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) studies that address the tightly coupled electrical powertrain and turbofan propulsion systems. Reconfigurable HIL testbeds enable the study of integrated supervisory control and control approaches that augment engine shaft torques to improve performance. This paper presents an overview of conceptual EAP controls architecture testing in two HIL testbeds. The NASA Electric Aircraft Testbed provides the ability for megawatt class electric powertrain testing for technology maturation. A 100 kilowatt testbed, the Hybrid Propulsion Emulation Rig, allows for rapid controls technology trade studies. In both testbeds, controls testing is performed by implementing the electrical power system in hardware while turbomachinery is emulated via electric machines that are commanded by a real-time model and controls. A novel scaling algorithm is applied to emulate the inertial loads of the turbomachinery that causes the electric machines to respond in a fashion similar to that of the full-scale propulsion system they represent. Results demonstrate desired control performance at both testbed scales for the conceptual EAP architecture.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Design and Performance of a Hybrid-Electric Fuel Cell Flight Demonstration Concept

As electric powertrain and propulsion-airframe integration technologies advance, airborne electric propulsion concepts appear to be on the cusp of disrupting or transforming aviation markets. One of the many challenges to this transformation lies within the onboard energy storage and generation technologies. State-of-the-art battery technology is heavy and lacks support infrastructure; purely combustion-based solutions to electrical power generation suffer from increased inefficiency as compared to a traditional combustion powertrain. This paper explores another alternative: a hybrid-electric, solid oxide fuel cell power system. This power system reforms traditional fuels to feed fuel cells that generate electrical power for the aircraft electric powertrain. A representative power system is designed based on the requirements for NASA’s X-57 Mod II electric flight demonstrator platform, and is shown to exceed system feasibility goals of 300 W/kg and 60% efficiency in at least one configuration. The hybrid-electric fuel cell power system is shown to be competitive with the range performance of a combustion-based power architecture and comparable in mission energy cost to a battery-electric power system.

Borer, Nicholas K.↗

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

SILHIL Replication of Electric Aircraft Powertrain Dynamics and Inner-Loop Control for V&V of System Health Management Routines

Software-in-the-loop and Hardware-in-the-loop testing of failure prognostics and decision making tools for aircraft systems will facilitate more comprehensive and cost-effective testing than what is practical to conduct with flight tests. A framework is described for the offline recreation of dynamic loads on simulated or physical aircraft powertrain components based on a real-time simulation of airframe dynamics running on a flight simulator, an inner-loop flight control policy executed by either an autopilot routine or a human pilot, and a supervisory fault management control policy. The creation of an offline framework for verifying and validating supervisory failure prognostics and decision making routines is described for the example of battery charge depletion failure scenarios onboard a prototype electric unmanned aerial vehicle.

Verification and Validation↗

Prognostics and Health Monitoring: Application to Electric Vehicles

As more and more autonomous electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systemssubsystems, specifically the electrical powertrain. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle.Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator either to the pilotautopilot for the electric vehicles which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life of the vehicle e.g. determine state-of-charge in batteries. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Prognostics↗