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Accurate disturbance models are necessary to predict the effects of vibrations on the performance of precision space-based telescopes, such as the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM).
Empirical model descriptions of the response of the neutral thermosphere to magnetic activity have become increasingly sophisticated over the last two decades. The latest CIRA model (MSIS-86) includes a dependence of the thermospheric response to magnetic activity on altitude, latitude, local time, season, longitude, UT, and time history of magnetic activity. A primary assumption is that density changes are directly related to the measured magnetic activity and the goal is for the model to be representative of the typical or average response for any given level of magnetic activity under specified ancillary conditions. Unfortunately, available measurements for the larger storms are too sparse to give good averages and storm response may not be uniquely represented by current magnetic indices. Point by point comparisons with the MSIS-86 model have standard deviations of 20 percent for 0 and 30 percent for N2 and He at high latitudes during storm conditions.
We examine the accuracy of density prediction by the first principles model Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and compare it to the accuracy of three empirical models: Jacchia 71, the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Extended 2000 (NRLMSIS), Jacchia 1971, and Jacchia-Bowman 2008. Comparisons are made for three large storms: the October 2003 storm, the March 2013 storm, and the March 2015 storm. To evaluate the accuracy of these models we use tracking data for nine space objects in low Earth orbit. Additionally, we evaluate the accuracy of the TIEGCM and NRLMSIS with data from high precision accelerometers on the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity field and Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellites. The goal is to assess the use of a first principles model as a potential tool for forecasting satellite drag during large magnetic storms. For the storms considered, we found the TIEGCM, JB2008, and NRLMSIS models to be substantially more accurate than the Jacchia 71 model. The accuracies of the TIEGCM and JB2008 models were similar, but overall, the TIEGCM was more accurate. We found smaller differences for TIEGCM versus CHAMP than for NRLMIS for the Halloween Storm, and smaller differences than results published for JB2008 and the assimilative model HASDM. The empirical models are at present more practical for operational purposes, but the TIEGCM, developed as a research model, with a greater focus on operational use offers the potential for improved utility during stressing conditions.
The empirical model developed in the NASA Dilution Jet Mixing Program has been extended to include the curvature effects of transition liners. This extension is based on the results of a 3-D numerical model generated under this contract. The empirical model results agree well with the numerical model results for all tests cases evaluated. The empirical model shows faster mixing rates compared to the numerical model. Both models show drift of jets toward the inner wall of a turning duct. The structure of the jets from the inner wall does not exhibit the familiar kidney-shaped structures observed for the outer wall jets or for jets injected in rectangular ducts.
A new suite of empirical models of plasmaspheric plasma based on remote, global images from the IMAGE EUV instrument is proposed for development. The purpose of these empirical models is to establish the statistical properties of the plasmasphere as a function of conditions. This suite of models will mark the first time the plasmaspheric plume is included in an empirical model. Development of these empirical plasmaspheric models will support synoptic studies (such as for wave propagation and growth, energetic particle loss through collisions and dust transport as influenced by charging) and serves as a benchmark against which physical models can be tested. The ability to know that a specific global density distribution occurs in response to specific magnetospheric and solar wind factors is a huge advantage over all previous in-situ based empirical models. The consequence of creating these new plasmaspheric models will be to provide much higher fidelity and much richer quantitative descriptions of the statistical properties of plasmaspheric plasma in the inner magnetosphere, whether that plasma is in the main body of the plasmasphere, nearby during recovery or in the plasmaspheric plume. Model products to be presented include statistical probabilities for being in the plasmasphere, near thermal He+ density boundaries and the complexity of its spatial structure.
Empirical models of plasmaspheric properties date from the pioneering work of Storey where he developed the analysis of ground whistler observations that lead to his estimate for the equatorial plasma density at L=3. The most recent in situ satellite study takes us to 1000 CRRES satellite passes and a statistical analysis of the plasmapause location at all local times and for varying geomagnetic conditions by Moldwin et al. These and many other studies over the intervening 49 years have given us a strong familiarity with the distribution of cold plasmaspheric ions throughout the magnetosphere. The major components of inner plasmasphere, nightside bulge, sunward convection tail, and plasmapause are all well established. Storm-time erosion and the resulting ionospheric refilling has been encompassed, even if not completely understood. Small-scale density variations near the plasmapause and extending at least to geosynchronous orbit have been characterized in a variety of ways, even though we do not yet understand their origin. This paper will present early empirical modeling results from the inversion of IMAGE/EW global intensity images to density distributions. Densities are obtained in this initial study through use of forward image modeling with a simple 3-parameter plasmaspheric and plasmapause mathematical model. Individual interior plasmaspheric density profiles and plasmapause locations are obtained every 10 degrees in magnetic local time for each E W image analyzed. Derived profile parameters are statistically characterized in the context of storm magnitude and evolution. Identified patterns in the appearance of plasmaspheric structures, plasmapause erosion, and refilling will be presented. Comparisons to existing empirical plasmaspheric models and the implications for new modeling will be presented. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.
Empirical modeling of plasma pressure and magnetic field for the quiet time nightside magnetosphere is investigated. Two models are constructed for this study. One model, referred to here as T89R, is basically the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1989) but is modified by the addition of an inner eastward ring current at a radial distance of approximately 3 R(sub E) as suggested by observation. The other is a combination of the T89R model and the long version of the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1987) such that the former dominates the magnetic field in the inner magnetosphere, whereas the latter prevails in the distant tail. The distribution of plasma pressure, which is required to balance the magnetic force for each of these two field models, is computed along the tail axis in the midnight meridian. The occurrence of pressure anisotropy in the inner magnetospheric region is also taken into account by determining an empirical fit to the observed plasma pressure anisotropy. This effort is the first attempt to obtain the plasma pressure distribution in force equilibrium with magnetic stresses from an empirical field model with the inclusion of pressure anisotropy. The inclusion of pressure anisotropy alters the plasma pressure by as much as a factor of approximately 3 in the inner magnetosphere. The deduced plasma pressure profile along the tail axis is found to be in good agreement with the observed quiet time plasma pressure for geocentric distances between approximately 2 and approximately 35 R(sub E).
Empirical modeling of plasma pressure and magnetic field for the quiet time nightside magnetosphere is investigated. Two models are constructed for this study. One model, referred to here as T89R, is basically the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1989) but is modified by the addition of an inner eastward ring current at a radial distance of approximately 3 RE as suggested by observation. The other is a combination of the T89R model and the long version of the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1987) such that the former dominates the magnetic field in the inner magnetosphere while the latter prevails in the distant tail. The distribution of plasma pressure which is required to balance the magnetic force for each of these two field models is computed along the tail axis in the midnight meridian. The occurrence of pressure anisotropy in the inner magnetospheric region is also taken into account by determining an empirical fit to the observed plasma pressure anisotropy. This represents the first effort to obtain the plasma pressure distribution in force equilibrium with magnetic stresses from an empirical field model with the inclusion of pressure anisotropy. The inclusion of pressure anisotropy alters the plasma pressure by as much as a factor of approximately 3 in the inner magnetosphere. The deduced plasma pressure profile along the tail axis is found to be in good agreement with the observed quiet time plasma pressure for geocentric distances between approximately 2 and approximately 35 RE.
Empirical models for the shielding and refection of jet mixing noise by a nearby surface are described and the resulting models evaluated. The flow variables are used to non-dimensionalize the surface position variables, reducing the variable space and producing models that are linear function of non-dimensional surface position and logarithmic in Strouhal frequency. A separate set of coefficients are determined at each observer angle in the dataset and linear interpolation is used to for the intermediate observer angles. The shielding and rejection models are then combined with existing empirical models for the jet mixing and jet-surface interaction noise sources to produce predicted spectra for a jet operating near a surface. These predictions are then evaluated against experimental data.
Empirical models for the shielding and reflection of jet mixing noise by a nearby surface are described and the resulting models evaluated. The flow variables are used to non-dimensionalize the surface position variables, reducing the variable space and producing models that are linear function of non-dimensional surface position and logarithmic in Strouhal frequency. A separate set of coefficients are determined at each observer angle in the dataset and linear interpolation is used to for the intermediate observer angles. The shielding and reflection models are then combined with existing empirical models for the jet mixing and jet-surface interaction noise sources to produce predicted spectra for a jet operating near a surface. These predictions are then evaluated against experimental data.
Gaussian and lognormal models for gust factors as a function of height and mean windspeed in land-falling hurricanes are presented. The models were empirically derived using data from 2004 hurricanes Frances and Jeanne and independently verified using data from 2005 hurricane Wilma. The data were collected from three wind towers at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station with instrumentation at multiple levels from 12 to 500 feet above ground level. An additional 200-foot tower was available for the verification. Mean wind speeds from 15 to 60 knots were included in the data. The models provide formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the gust factor given the mean windspeed and height above ground. These statistics may then be used to assess the probability of exceeding a specified peak wind threshold of operational significance given a specified mean wind speed.
Ion composition data from the OGO-6 satellite are used to develop an empirical model of the H(+) signature in the equatorial anomaly. The empirical model is an attempt to represent the generally repeatable details of the satellite data by a parameterized numerical model accounting for such variables as the altitude, local time and longitude of the observations. Although the resulting model is in general agreement with past findings on the variability of the equatorial anomaly phenomenon, there appears to be a complexity of short-term or narrowly localized variations which cannot be adequately understood on the basis of data from a single satellite.
The process of developing an empirical model for jet-surface interaction noise is described and the resulting model evaluated. Jet-surface interaction noise is generated when the high-speed engine exhaust from modern tightly integrated or conventional high-bypass ratio engine aircraft strikes or flows over the airframe surfaces. An empirical model based on an existing experimental database is developed for use in preliminary design system level studies where computation speed and range of configurations is valued over absolute accuracy to select the most promising (or eliminate the worst) possible designs. The model developed assumes that the jet-surface interaction noise spectra can be separated from the jet mixing noise and described as a parabolic function with three coefficients: peak amplitude, spectral width, and peak frequency. These coefficients are fit to functions of surface length and distance from the jet lipline to form a characteristic spectra which is then adjusted for changes in jet velocity and/or observer angle using scaling laws from published theoretical and experimental work. The resulting model is then evaluated for its ability to reproduce the characteristic spectra and then for reproducing spectra measured at other jet velocities and observer angles; successes and limitations are discussed considering the complexity of the jet-surface interaction noise versus the desire for a model that is simple to implement and quick to execute.
The process of developing an empirical model for jet-surface interaction noise is described and the resulting model evaluated. Jet-surface interaction noise is generated when the high-speed engine exhaust from modern tightly integrated or conventional high-bypass ratio engine aircraft strikes or flows over the airframe surfaces. An empirical model based on an existing experimental database is developed for use in preliminary design system level studies where computation speed and range of configurations is valued over absolute accuracy to select the most promising (or eliminate the worst) possible designs. The model developed assumes that the jet-surface interaction noise spectra can be separated from the jet mixing noise and described as a parabolic function with three coefficients: peak amplitude, spectral width, and peak frequency. These coefficients are t to functions of surface length and distance from the jet lipline to form a characteristic spectra which is then adjusted for changes in jet velocity and/or observer angle using scaling laws from published theoretical and experimental work. The resulting model is then evaluated for its ability to reproduce the characteristic spectra and then for reproducing spectra measured at other jet velocities and observer angles; successes and limitations are discussed considering the complexity of the jet-surface interaction noise versus the desire for a model that is simple to implement and quick to execute.
An empirical model for scattering from a vegetation layer above an irregular ground surface is developed in terms of the first-order solution for like-polarized scattering and the second-order solution for cross-polarized scattering. The effects of multiple scattering within the layer and at the surface-volume boundary are compensated by using a correction factor based on the matrix doubling method. The major feature of this model is that all parameters in the model are physical parameters of the vegetation medium. There are no regression parameters. Comparisons of this empirical model with theoretical matrix-doubling method and radar measurements indicate good agreements in polarization, angular trends, and k sub a up to 4, where k is the wave number and a is the disk radius. The computational time is shortened by a factor of 8, relative to the theoretical model calculation.
An existing empirical model of the temperature field downstream of single and multiple rows of jets injected into a confined crossflow has been extended to model the effects of curvature and convergence on the mixing. This extension is based on the results of a numerical study of these effects using a 3-D turbulent flow computer code. Temperature distributions calculated with the empirical model are presented to show the effects of flow area convergence, radius of curvature, and inner and outer wall injection for single and opposed rows of jets.
An existing empirical model of the temperature field downstream of single and multiple rows of jets injected into a confined crossflow has been extended to model the effects of curvature and convergence on the mixing. This extension is based on the results of a numerical study of these effects using a 3-D turbulent flow computer code. Temperature distributions calculated with the empirical model are presented to show the effects of flow area convergence, radius of curvature, and inner and outer wall injection for single and opposed rows of jets.
In this experiment, an empirical model to quantify the probability of occurrence of an electrical short circuit from tin whiskers as a function of voltage was developed. This empirical model can be used to improve existing risk simulation models. FIB and TEM images of a tin whisker confirm the rare polycrystalline structure on one of the three whiskers studied. FIB cross-section of the card guides verified that the tin finish was bright tin.