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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generation and validation of comprehensive synthetic weather histories using auto-regressive moving-average models

As energy system design moves to more complex methods of optimization including machine learning there is a significant need for more weather data than is available. One method to solve this is using synthetic data models such as the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model which has been frequently utilized to create such data. This paper looks at extending the ARMA algorithm to generate solar components through the use of clearsky detrending, maintaining vector relationships and by leveraging physical relationships. The method for the creation of entirely synthetic weather data files including key weather variables for energy system analysis is presented. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of energy system simulations utilizing both real and synthetic data is made using NREL’s System Advisor Model. Whilst good agreement is made for the solar variables, and other weather variables, ARMA methods often fail to capture the standard deviation and skew of annual weather distributions. Vector-ARMA is shown to maintain correlations between variables and thus generate data sets that perform similarly in energy system design. Here, it is finally shown that the ARMA method fails to preserve day-today correlations in weather variables and thus over-predicts optimal energy storage by 21% for a residential solar application.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems

SAND2025-12025O The Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems (ProGRESS) software tool is an open-source tool for assessing the resource adequacy of the evolving electric power grid integrated with energy storage systems (ESS). This tool uses a simulation engine to create diverse scenarios that test the limits of the modern power grid consisting of a high-volume ESS and variable energy resources (VER). Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Nguyen, Tu↗
DOE OSTI2026

System Advisor Model (SAM) [Slides]

The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software that enables detailed performance and financial analysis for energy systems. • Conducts technoeconomic analysis of energy technologies to facilitate planning and decision making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Performance via Energy Efficiency JUSTIFI: Open-Source Software for Identifying and Quantifying Non-Energy Benefits

Energy efficiency is pivotal to achieving operational excellence, as it enhances value while reducing waste. This presentation explores the integration of non-energy benefits (NEBs) into energy efficiency projects, which can lead to risk reduction, value creation, and cost savings. By quantifying NEBs - such as improved safety, decreased pollution, and increased productivity - companies can strengthen their business cases for energy investments, ultimately improving payback periods and aligning with strategic goals. Designed for a diverse audience, from trained auditors to novices in energy assessments, we have developed open-source software called JUSTIFI, NEB finding methodology, and training materials which build on existing frameworks and leverages resources from the U.S. Department of Energy and Better Plants energy system analysis software suite such as MEASUR. This work aims to maximize ROI through NEB identification, utilizing tools like JUSTIFI and the NEBs Discovery Protocol.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution WRF-Based Downscaling of Earth System Model Projections for Energy Applications across CONUS

Evaluating energy resources under future scenarios requires meteorological information that adequately resolves regional-scale variability and is suitable for regional energy system studies. Although Earth system model (ESM) outputs provide essential large-scale context, their coarse resolution and inherent biases limit direct use in energy system applications. This work presents a high-resolution dynamical downscaling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate energy-relevant regional fields for future scenarios over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The framework first identifies an optimal WRF configuration through sensitivity experiments, then evaluates raw and bias-corrected ESM initial and boundary conditions, with soil moisture and soil temperature bias correction implemented as an integral component of the bias-corrected ESM atmospheric forcing prior to WRF dynamical downscaling to improve land-atmosphere interactions. Simulations performed at 4-km resolution show that uncorrected ESM forcing leads to systematically dry and cold soil states, which propagate into elevated near-surface air temperature and solar irradiance biases, particularly during summer for the period 2000-2014. Incorporating bias-corrected atmospheric forcing together with soil state bias correction substantially reduces these errors and improves the representation of surface energy processes in WRF simulations. The results highlight the importance of bias-aware initialization strategies in high-resolution dynamical downscaling for future energy system analysis and planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

SULI End of Summer Presentation

This presentation made on Power Point is a brief summary of my work enhancing the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) architecture for Idaho National Lab’s Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC). This work was part of an on-going project to create a digital twin of CITRC that will be implemented for resiliency research. Resiliency is growing more important as extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and increasing load all exert stress on the United States power grid. This presentation highlights how I documented the existing devices and data flow on site and then updated specific device settings to better support the needs of the project. It also examines future use of this data in the digital twin data warehouse (DeepLynx), and future Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Distribution Management System applications. It will be presented to the B751 Water and Energy Systems Analysis group at INL during my last week.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revenue Analysis for Energy Storage Systems in the United States

In this work we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage characteristics, specifically duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as locational elements of storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. Figure ES-1 illustrates the revenue for a 1 MW storage system in seven market regions with durations range from 1 hour to 12 hours using both historical and forward-looking price data. The historical analysis covers more than 500 price nodes for each market region, while the forward-looking analysis includes balancing areas under different 10 scenarios of the electricity generation mix. The results indicate that the revenues consistently increase with duration, though the marginal value declines as duration grows. Moreover, the range of revenue depends on the system's operational location, and the electricity generation mix changes for future years. This range also widens with increased durations. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of round-trip efficiency reveals that as efficiency improves, system revenue increases, though the value of better round-trip efficiency declines as at higher efficiency levels.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Energy Analysis of Refrigeration Systems in Supermarkets: A Case Study

Refrigeration systems are the single largest consumer of electricity in supermarkets, accounting for approximately 40–60% of total store electricity use. As supermarkets face increasing pressures to improve efficiency and reduce operational costs, understanding the energy performance of refrigeration systems in supermarkets has become essential. In this paper, we investigate the energy performance and patterns of the refrigeration system using field measurements in one supermarket. The compressor coefficient of performance (COP) averaged 4.5 during nighttime steady-state operation, providing a practical efficiency benchmark. We develop simple physical-based load models for the display cases in the supermarket, where the refrigeration system uses R404A. The results show the display case models achieve a good agreement with measured data, validating its utility for energy estimation during unoccupied hours. Finally, the analysis reveals several challenges of data collection systems for refrigeration systems in the supermarket industry as well.

Chen, Yimin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000338181655)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Economic Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems Incorporating Uncertain Battery Model

A high-fidelity battery model is essential for precise economic analysis of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), but these models are computationally intensive. Heuristic models offer computational efficiency but compromise the accuracy of economic analysis results. We assess the impact of errors in heuristic battery models on economic analysis by utilizing open-circuit voltage (OCV) measurements from battery experiments.

Choi, Hyungjin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗