Precise, detailed error budgets for 2-qubit gates from gate set tomography.
Abstract not provided.
Blume-Kohout, Robin↗
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Type Ia Supernova Growth-rate Measurement with LSST Simulations: Intrinsic Scatter Systematics
Measurement of the growth rate of structures (fσ 8 ) with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) will improve our understanding of the nature of dark energy and enable tests of general relativity. In this paper, we generate simulations of the 10 yr SN Ia data set of the Rubin-LSST survey, including a correlated velocity field from an N-body simulation and realistic models of SNe Ia properties and their correlations with host-galaxy properties. We find, similar to SN Ia analyses that constrain the dark energy equation-of-state parameters w 0 w a , that constraints on fσ 8 can be biased depending on the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia. While for the majority of intrinsic scatter models we recover fσ 8 with a precision of ∼13%–14%, for the most realistic dust-based model, we find that the presence of non-Gaussianities in Hubble diagram residuals leads to a bias on fσ 8 of ∼ −20%. When trying to correct for the dust-based intrinsic scatter, we find that the propagation of the uncertainty on the model parameters does not significantly increase the error on fσ 8 . We also find that while the main component of the error budget of fσ 8 is the statistical uncertainty (>75% of the total error budget), the systematic error budget is dominated by the uncertainty on the damping parameter, σ u , that gives an empirical description of the effect of redshift space distortions on the velocity power spectrum. Our results motivate a search for new methods to correct for the non-Gaussian distribution of the Hubble diagram residuals, as well as an improved modeling of the damping parameter.
Carreres, Bastien [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗
The Neutron Mean Life and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis
We explore the effect of neutron lifetime and its uncertainty on standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). BBN describes the cosmic production of the light nuclides, 1H, D, 3H+3He, 4He, and 7Li+7Be, in the first minutes of cosmic time. The neutron mean life τn has two roles in modern BBN calculations: (1) it normalizes the matrix element for weak n↔p interconversions, and (2) it sets the rate of free neutron decay after the weak interactions freeze-out. We review the history of the interplay between τn measurements and BBN, and present a study of the sensitivity of the light element abundances to the modern neutron lifetime measurements. We find that τn uncertainties dominate the predicted 4He error budget, but these theory errors remain smaller than the uncertainties in 4He observations, even with the dispersion in recent neutron lifetime measurements. For the other light element predictions, τn contributes negligibly to their error budget. Turning the problem around, we combine present BBN and cosmic microwave background (CMB) determinations of the cosmic baryon density to predict a “cosmologically preferred” mean life of τn(BBN+CMB)=870±16s, which is consistent with experimental mean life determinations. We show that if future astronomical and cosmological helium observations can reach an uncertainty of σobs(Yp)=0.001 in the 4He mass fraction Yp, this could begin to discriminate between the mean life determinations.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Comparing the DES-SN5YR and Pantheon+ SN cosmology analyses: investigation based on ‘evolving dark energy or supernovae systematics’?
Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an $\sim$0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9$\sigma$ to 3.3$\sigma$, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Black hole spin in X-ray binaries: giving uncertainties an $\mathcal{f}$
The two established techniques for measuring black hole spin in X-ray binaries often yield conflicting results, which must be resolved before either method may be deemed robust. In practice, black hole spin measurements based on fitting the accretion disc continuum effectively do not marginalize over the colour-correction factor f col . This factor parametrizes spectral hardening of the disc continuum by the disc atmosphere, whose true properties are poorly constrained. We incorporate reasonable systematic uncertainties in f col into the eight (non-maximal) black hole spin measurements vetted by the disc continuum fitting community. In most cases, an f col uncertainty of ±0.2–0.3 dominates the black hole spin error budget. We go on to demonstrate that plausible departures in f col values from those adopted by the disc continuum fitting practitioners can bring the discrepant black hole spins into agreement with those from iron line modelling. Systematic uncertainties in f col , such as the effects of strong magnetization, should be better understood before dismissing their potentially dominant impact on the black hole spin error budget.
4U 1543–47↗
Precision measurements of EFT parameters and BAO peak shifts for the Lyman- α forest
We present precision measurements of the bias parameters of the one-loop power spectrum model of the Lyman- α (Ly- α ) forest, derived within the effective field theory (EFT) of large-scale structure. We fit our model to the three-dimensional flux power spectrum measured from the ACCEL 2 hydrodynamic simulations. The EFT model fits the data with an accuracy of below 2% up to k = 2 h Mpc − 1 . Further, we analytically derive how nonlinearities in the three-dimensional clustering of the Ly- α forest introduce biases in measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) scaling parameters in radial and transverse directions. From our EFT parameter measurements, we obtain a theoretical error budget of Δ α ∥ = − 0.2 % ( Δ α ⊥ = − 0.3 % ) for the radial (transverse) parameters at redshift z = 2.0 . This corresponds to a shift of − 0.3 % (0.1%) for the isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We provide an estimate for the shift of the BAO peak for Ly- α -quasar cross-correlation measurements assuming analytical and simulation-based scaling relations for the nonlinear quasar bias parameters resulting in a shift of − 0.2 % ( − 0.1 % ) for the radial (transverse) dilation parameters, respectively. This analysis emphasizes the robustness of Ly- α forest BAO measurements to the theory modeling. We provide informative priors and an error budget for measuring the BAO feature—a key science driver of the currently observing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Our work paves the way for full-shape cosmological analyses of Ly- α forest data from DESI and upcoming surveys such as the Prime Focus Spectrograph, WEAVE-QSO, and 4MOST. Published by the American Physical Society 2025
de Belsunce, Roger (ORCID:0000000336604028)↗
EXPRES. I. HD 3651 as an Ideal RV Benchmark
The next generation of exoplanet-hunting spectrographs should deliver up to an order of magnitude improvement in radial velocity (RV) precision over the standard 1 m s{sup −1} state-of-the-art spectrographs. This advance is critical for enabling the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars. New calibration techniques such as laser frequency combs and stabilized etalons ensure that the instrumental stability is well characterized. However, additional sources of error include stellar noise, undetected short-period planets, and telluric contamination. To understand and ultimately mitigate error sources, the contributing terms in the error budget must be isolated to the greatest extent possible. Here, we introduce a new high-cadence RV program, the Extreme Precision Spectrograph (EXPRES) 100 Earths Survey, which aims to identify rocky planets around bright, nearby G and K dwarfs. We also present a benchmark case: the 62 day orbit of a Saturn-mass planet orbiting the chromospherically quiet star, HD 3651. The combination of high eccentricity (0.6) and a moderately long orbital period ensures significant dynamical clearing of any inner planets. Our Keplerian model for this planetary orbit has a residual rms of 58 cm s{sup −1} over a ∼6 month time baseline. By eliminating significant contributors to the RV error budget, HD 3651 serves as a standard for evaluating the long-term precision of extreme precision RV programs.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Light and Strange Vector Resonances from Lattice QCD at Physical Quark Masses
We present the first ab initio calculation at physical quark masses of scattering amplitudes describing the lightest pseudoscalar mesons interacting via the strong force in the vector channel. Using lattice quantum chromodynamics, we postdict the defining parameters for two short-lived resonances, the ρ(770) and K*(892) which manifest as complex energy poles in ππ and Kπ scattering amplitudes, respectively. The calculation proceeds by first computing the finite-volume energy spectrum of the two-hadron systems and then determining the amplitudes from the energies using the Lüscher formalism. The error budget includes a data-driven systematic error, obtained by scanning possible fit ranges and fit models to extract the spectrum from Euclidean correlators, as well as the scattering amplitudes from the latter. The final results, obtained by analytically continuing multiple parametrizations into the complex energy plane, are M ρ = 796(5)(50)MeV, Γ ρ = 192(10)(31) MeV, M K* = 893(2)(54) MeV, and Γ K = 51(2)(11) MeV, where the subscript indicates the resonance and M and Γ stand for the mass and width, respectively, and where the first bracket indicates the statistical and the second bracket the systematic uncertainty.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Comparing Compressed and Full-Modeling analyses with FOLPS: implications for DESI 2024 and beyond
The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Flavor-dependent radiative corrections in coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering
We calculate coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering cross sections on spin-0 nuclei (e.g. 40 Ar and 28 Si) at energies below 100 MeV within the Standard Model and account for all effects of permille size. We provide a complete error budget including uncertainties at nuclear, nucleon, hadronic, and quark levels separately as well as perturbative error. Our calculation starts from the four-fermion effective field theory to explicitly separate heavy-particle mediated corrections (which are absorbed by Wilson coefficients) from light-particle contributions. Electrons and muons running in loops introduce a non- trivial dependence on the momentum transfer due to their relatively light masses. These same loops, and those mediated by tau leptons, break the flavor universality because of mass-dependent electromagnetic radiative corrections. Nuclear physics uncertainties significantly cancel in flavor asymmetries resulting in subpercent relative errors. We find that for low neutrino energies, the cross section can be predicted with a relative precision that is competitive with neutrino-electron scattering. We highlight potentially useful applications of such a precise cross section prediction ranging from precision tests of the Standard Model, to searches for new physics and to the monitoring of nuclear reactors.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Lensing without borders – I. A blind comparison of the amplitude of galaxy–galaxy lensing between independent imaging surveys
ABSTRACT Lensing without borders is a cross-survey collaboration created to assess the consistency of galaxy–galaxy lensing signals (ΔΣ) across different data sets and to carry out end-to-end tests of systematic errors. We perform a blind comparison of the amplitude of ΔΣ using lens samples from BOSS and six independent lensing surveys. We find good agreement between empirically estimated and reported systematic errors which agree to better than 2.3σ in four lens bins and three radial ranges. For lenses with zL > 0.43 and considering statistical errors, we detect a 3–4σ correlation between lensing amplitude and survey depth. This correlation could arise from the increasing impact at higher redshift of unrecognized galaxy blends on shear calibration and imperfections in photometric redshift calibration. At zL > 0.54, amplitudes may additionally correlate with foreground stellar density. The amplitude of these trends is within survey-defined systematic error budgets that are designed to include known shear and redshift calibration uncertainty. Using a fully empirical and conservative method, we do not find evidence for large unknown systematics. Systematic errors greater than 15 per cent (25 per cent) ruled out in three lens bins at 68 per cent (95 per cent) confidence at z < 0.54. Differences with respect to predictions based on clustering are observed to be at the 20–30 per cent level. Our results therefore suggest that lensing systematics alone are unlikely to fully explain the ‘lensing is low’ effect at z < 0.54. This analysis demonstrates the power of cross-survey comparisons and provides a promising path for identifying and reducing systematics in future lensing analyses.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Performance Verification of the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph
The EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) is a new Doppler spectrograph designed to reach a radial-velocity measurement precision sufficient to detect Earth-like exoplanets orbiting nearby, bright stars. We report on extensive laboratory testing and on-sky observations to quantitatively assess the instrumental radial-velocity measurement precision of EXPRES, with a focused discussion of individual terms in the instrument error budget. We find that EXPRES can reach a single-measurement instrument calibration precision better than 10 cm s{sup −1}, not including photon noise from stellar observations. We also report on the performance of the various environmental, mechanical, and optical subsystems of EXPRES, assessing any contributions to radial-velocity error. For atmospheric and telescope related effects, this includes the fast tip-tilt guiding system, atmospheric dispersion compensation, and the chromatic exposure meter. For instrument calibration, this includes the laser fRequency comb (LFC), flat-field light source, CCD detector, and effects in the optical fibers. Modal noise is mitigated to a negligible level via a chaotic fiber agitator, which is especially important for wavelength calibration with the LFC. Regarding detector effects, we empirically assess the impact on the radial-velocity precision due to pixel-position nonuniformities and charge transfer inefficiency (CTI). EXPRES has begun its science survey to discover exoplanets orbiting G-dwarf and K-dwarf stars, in addition to transit spectroscopy and measurements of the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
KiDS-1000 cosmology: Combined second- and third-order shear statistics
Aims.In this work, we perform the first cosmological parameter analysis of the fourth release of Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) data with second- and third-order shear statistics. This paper builds on a series of studies aimed at describing the roadmap to third-order shear statistics. Methods.We derived and tested a combined model of the second-order shear statistic, namely, the COSEBIs and the third-order aperture mass statistics 〈ℳ ap 3 〉 in a tomographic set-up. We validated our pipeline withN-body mock simulations of the KiDS-1000 data release. To model the second- and third-order statistics, we used the latest version of HMCODE2020 for the power spectrum and BIHALOFITfor the bispectrum. Furthermore, we used an analytic description to model intrinsic alignments and hydro-dynamical simulations to model the effect of baryonic feedback processes. Lastly, we decreased the dimension of the data vector significantly by considering only equal smoothing radii for the 〈ℳ ap 3 〉 part of the data vector. This makes it possible to carry out a data analysis of the KiDS-1000 data release using a combined analysis of COSEBIs and third-order shear statistics. Results.We first validated the accuracy of our modelling by analysing a noise-free mock data vector, assuming the KiDS-1000 error budget, finding a shift in the maximum of the posterior distribution of the matter density parameter, ΔΩ m < 0.02 σ Ω m , and of the structure growth parameter, ΔS 8 < 0.05 σ S 8 . Lastly, we performed the first KiDS-1000 cosmological analysis using a combined analysis of second- and third-order shear statistics, where we constrained Ω m = 0.248 −0.055 +0.062 andS 8 = σ 8 √(Ω m /0.3 )= 0.772 ± 0.022. The geometric average on the errors of Ω m andS 8 of the combined statistics decreases, compared to the second-order statistic, by a factor of 2.2.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Executive summary of error sources in dynamic surface temperature measurements
Obtaining bulk T requires measuring apparent sample interface T surface , knowledge of any window conditions T window , and knowledge of thermal transport from the sample to the window. To obtain bulk T with uncertainties below 5% requires relatively small uncertainties in each of these areas, and large uncertainties in one area require smaller uncertainties in others to maintain the error budget. For example, if T window is known to 10%, a 5% total uncertainty can be obtained if T surface is known to 1% and combined transport uncertainties are known to 20%. If T surface can only be measured to 2%, combined transport uncertainties must be 17% to reach the same overall uncertainty. As the form of transport is unknown at high pressure, and window temperatures are difficult to measure by their very nature, reducing surface T uncertainties is the practical first step. Here we will discuss various error sources in the measurement of apparent T surface , and which ones must be correctly obtained prior to the experiment.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Measuring and unbiasing the BAO shift in the Ly α forest with AbacusSummit
ABSTRACT The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) places sub- per cent constraints on measurements of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) scaling parameters from the Ly $\alpha$ forest. However, no systematic error budget stemming from non-linearities in the three-dimensional clustering of the Ly $\alpha$ forest is included in the DESI-Ly $\alpha$ analysis. In this work, we measure the size of the shift of the BAO peak using large Ly $\alpha$ forest mocks produced on the N-body simulation suite AbacusSummit, which adopt the Fluctuating–Gunn–Peterson Approximation (FGPA). Specifically, we measure the Ly $\alpha$ autocorrelation and the Ly $\alpha$-quasar cross-correlation functions. To mitigate the noise, we adopt a linear control variates technique, reducing the error bars by a factor of up to $\sim \sqrt{50}$ on large scales. From the autocorrelation, we detect a small positive shift in radial direction of $\Delta \alpha _{\parallel }= 0.35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at the 3$\sigma$ level and virtually no shift in the transverse direction, $\alpha _\perp$. From the cross-correlation, we see a similar shift to $\Delta \alpha _\parallel$, albeit with larger error bars, and a small negative shift, $\Delta \alpha _{\perp }=\sim$0.25 per cent, at the 2$\sigma$ level. We also make a connection with the Ly $\alpha$ forest effective field theory (EFT) framework and find that the one-loop EFT power spectrum yields unbiased measurements of the BAO shift parameters in radial and transverse direction for Ly $\alpha$ auto- and the Ly $\alpha$-quasar cross-correlation measurements. When using the one-loop EFT framework, we find that we can recover the BAO parameters without a shift, which has important implications for future Ly $\alpha$ forest analyses based on EFT. This work paves the way for novel full-shape analyses of the currently observing DESI and future surveys such as the PFS, WEAVE-QSO, and 4MOST.
Hadzhiyska, Boryana↗
Baryon acoustic oscillation theory and modelling systematics for the DESI 2024 results
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of how fitting of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) is carried out within the upcoming Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument’s (DESI) 2024 results using its DR1 data set, and the associated systematic error budget from theory and modelling of the BAO. We derive new results showing how non-linearities in the clustering of galaxies can cause potential biases in measurements of the isotropic (α iso ) and anisotropic (α ap ) BAO distance scales, and how these can be effectively removed with an appropriate choice of reconstruction algorithm. We then demonstrate how theory leads to a clear choice for how to model the BAO and develop, implement, and validate a new model for the remaining smooth-broad-band (i.e. without BAO) component of the galaxy clustering. Finally, we explore the impact of all remaining modelling choices on the BAO constraints from DESI using a suite of high-precision simulations, arriving at a set of best practices for DESI BAO fits, and an associated theory and modelling systematic error. Overall, our results demonstrate the remarkable robustness of the BAO to all our modelling choices and motivate a combined theory and modelling systematic error contribution to the post-reconstruction DESI BAO measurements of no more than 0.1 per cent (0.2 per cent) for its isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We expect the theory and best practices laid out to here to be applicable to other BAO experiments in the era of DESI and beyond.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Deblending galaxies with variational autoencoders: A joint multiband, multi-instrument approach
ABSTRACT Blending of galaxies has a major contribution in the systematic error budget of weak-lensing studies, affecting photometric and shape measurements, particularly for ground-based, deep, photometric galaxy surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Existing deblenders mostly rely on analytic modelling of galaxy profiles and suffer from the lack of flexible yet accurate models. We propose to use generative models based on deep neural networks, namely variational autoencoders (VAE), to learn probabilistic models directly from data. We train a VAE on images of centred, isolated galaxies, which we reuse, as a prior, in a second VAE-like neural network in charge of deblending galaxies. We train our networks on simulated images including six LSST bandpass filters and the visible and near-infrared bands of the Euclid satellite, as our method naturally generalizes to multiple bands and can incorporate data from multiple instruments. We obtain median reconstruction errors on ellipticities and r-band magnitude between ±0.01 and ±0.05, respectively, in most cases, and ellipticity multiplicative bias of 1.6 per cent for blended objects in the optimal configuration. We also study the impact of decentring and prove the method to be robust. This method only requires the approximate centre of each target galaxy, but no assumptions about the number of surrounding objects, pointing to an iterative detection/deblending procedure we leave for future work. Finally, we discuss future challenges about training on real data and obtain encouraging results when applying transfer learning.
Arcelin, Bastien↗
HOD-dependent systematics in Emission Line Galaxies for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis
The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide precise measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and set stringent constraints on dark energy. Therefore, precise control of the global error budget due to various systematic effects is required for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis. In this work, we estimate the level of systematics induced in the DESI BAO analysis due the assumed Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model for the Emission Line Galaxy (ELG) tracer. We make use of mock galaxy catalogs constructed by fitting various HOD models to early DESI data, namely the One-Percent survey data. Our analysis includes typical HOD models for the ELG tracer used in the literature as well as extensions to the baseline models. Among the extensions, we consider various recipes for galactic conformity and assembly bias. We use 25 AbacusSummit simulations under the ΛCDM cosmology for each HOD model and perform independent analyses in Fourier space and in configuration space. To recover the BAO signal from our mocks we perform BAO reconstruction and apply the control variates technique to reduce sample variance noise. Our BAO analyses can recover the isotropic BAO parameter α iso within 0.1% and the Alcock Paczynski parameter α AP within 0.3%. Overall, we find that the systematic error due to the HOD dependence is below 0.17%, with the Fourier space analysis being more robust against the HOD systematics. We conclude that our analysis pipeline is robust enough against the HOD systematics for the ELG tracer in the DESI 2024 BAO analysis, for the assumptions made.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗