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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

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NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A bias identification and state estimation methodology for nonlinear systems

A computational algorithm for the identification of input and output biases in discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems is derived by extending the separate bias estimation results for linear systems to the extended Kalman filter formulation. The merits of the approach are illustrated by identifying instrument biases using a terminal configured vehicle simulation.

Caglayan, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

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NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Techno-economic Assessments

This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity (COE) or cost of product (COP) metrics by which NETL estimates the impact of technology options. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines were initially developed for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen) by substituting the industrial product quantity for the electrical quantity in the equations. The tables contained in this QGESS have been expanded upon relative to previous versions to include values to assume for several industries.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation Methodology to Evaluate Hypothetical Downwind Impacts from Fusion Plants

The continuing move toward establishing fusion systems for power generation and the associated research to that end is prompting examination of the potential health and safety impacts of such plants to the environment and human health. As many fusion facilities will have tritium inventories on site as part of the fusion fuel, evaluating the potential for downwind impacts from fusion facilities or power plants resulting from accident or routine emissions is a general requirement for assessing location and impacts to workers and the public. As part of siting considerations and permitting, the fusion facilities would be evaluated for potential for downwind concentration and dose impacts. For accident assessment scenarios, the downwind impacts are usually modeled as an instantaneous (or near-instantaneous) release of material transported following the wind. A range of meteorological conditions are usually assessed to determine a bounding case which results in a dose exceeding a specified threshold (e.g., 95 th or 99 th percentile; DOE 2015). This report provides initial estimates of the downwind dose impacts from a potential tritium release at a fusion power plant-relevant facility and identifies potential distances required to limit impacts to nearby population. This effort is meant to provide a bounding analysis and theoretical understanding of impacts of tritium releases for facilities subject to various environmental and atmospheric conditions. Using a Gaussian dispersion model to simulate a brief plume, downwind concentration and dose is projected for tritium oxide. Releases are assumed to consist entirely of tritium oxide due to the increased dose impacts from the oxide form relative to the elemental form of tritium. We also briefly identify how climatological conditions could potentially be used to support risk profile determination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Assessments of Power Plant Performance

This paper summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating power plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity by which NETL evaluates electric power plants. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different power plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines are tailored for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Maintenance estimation methodology

A Rayleigh curve method of projection combined with a modified matrix method to forecast maintenance needs and required staffing levels is used. The curves generated by both methods are differenced to ascertain how much new work can be performed given the staffing live. Actual project data are compared to the projection to validate or modify the process.

Rone, K. Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods for Estimating Hydrogen Fuel Tank Characteristics

The pressure vessels needed to store hydrogen for next-generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are expected to be a substantial portion of the total system mass, volume, and cost. Gravimetric capacity, volumetric capacity, and cost per kilogram of usable hydrogen are key performance metrics that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) uses to determine the viability of hydrogen fuel cell systems. Research and development related to hydrogen storage systems covers a wide range of potential operating conditions, from cryogenic temperatures to high temperatures (above ambient) and low pressure to high pressure. Researchers at PNNL have developed methods for estimating these key pressure vessel characteristics to support on-board hydrogen storage system design and performance evaluation and to support decision-making about DOE hydrogen storage system research investments. This article describes the pressure tank estimation methodology that has been used as a stand-alone calculation and has been incorporated into larger system evaluation tools. The methodology estimates the geometry, mass, and material cost of type I, type III, and type IV pressure vessels based on operating pressure and material strength at the system's operating temperature, using classical thin-wall and thick-wall pressure vessel stress calculations. The geometry, mass, and material cost requirements of the pressure vessel have significant impacts on the total system performance. For example, hydrogen storage materials that can separately achieve a very high hydrogen density can be deemed impractical for use in fuel cell vehicle hydrogen storage systems because the pressure tank containing them is too large, heavy, or expensive. This article describes the design philosophy and analytical process of the tank characteristic estimation methodology, which has been implemented in spreadsheet calculation tools and system-level analysis tools used by DOE researchers. Each of the three tank types (type I, type III, and type IV) uses a different analysis methodology with some common elements. This article also provides examples of implementing the methodology to perform parametric studies of all three pressure vessel types. The goal of this article is to present the methodology in sufficient detail so it can be implemented in other hydrogen fuel cell vehicle design and analysis tools.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1996

Development of Methodologies for the Estimation of Thermal Properties Associated with Aerospace Vehicles

A thermal stress analysis is an important aspect in the design of aerospace structures and vehicles such as the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center (NASA-LaRC). These structures are complex and are often composed of numerous components fabricated from a variety of different materials. The thermal loads on these structures induce temperature variations within the structure, which in turn result in the development of thermal stresses. Therefore, a thermal stress analysis requires knowledge of the temperature distributions within the structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate knowledge of the thermal properties, boundary conditions and thermal interface conditions associated with the structural materials. The goal of this proposed multi-year research effort was to develop estimation methodologies for the determination of the thermal properties and interface conditions associated with aerospace vehicles. Specific objectives focused on the development and implementation of optimal experimental design strategies and methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties associated with simple composite and honeycomb structures. The strategy used in this multi-year research effort was to first develop methodologies for relatively simple systems and then systematically modify these methodologies to analyze complex structures. This can be thought of as a building block approach. This strategy was intended to promote maximum usability of the resulting estimation procedure by NASA-LARC researchers through the design of in-house experimentation procedures and through the use of an existing general purpose finite element software.

Scott, Elaine P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Methodology for estimating helicopter performance and weights using limited data

Methodology is developed and described for estimating the flight performance and weights of a helicopter for which limited data are available. The methodology is based on assumptions which couple knowledge of the technology of the helicopter under study with detailed data from well documented helicopters thought to be of similar technology. The approach, analysis assumptions, technology modeling, and the use of reference helicopter data are discussed. Application of the methodology is illustrated with an investigation of the Agusta A129 Mangusta.

Baserga, Claudio↗
NASA NTRS2005

Life-Cycle Cost/Benefit Assessment of Expedite Departure Path (EDP)

This report presents a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment (LCCBA) of Expedite Departure Path (EDP), an air traffic control Decision Support Tool (DST) currently under development at NASA. This assessment is an update of a previous study performed by bd Systems, Inc. (bd) during FY01, with the following revisions: The life-cycle cost assessment methodology developed by bd for the previous study was refined and calibrated using Free Flight Phase 1 (FFP1) cost information for Traffic Management Advisor (TMA, or TMA-SC in the FAA's terminology). Adjustments were also made to the site selection and deployment scheduling methodology to include airspace complexity as a factor. This technique was also applied to the benefit extrapolation methodology to better estimate potential benefits for other years, and at other sites. This study employed a new benefit estimating methodology because bd s previous single year potential benefit assessment of EDP used unrealistic assumptions that resulted in optimistic estimates. This methodology uses an air traffic simulation approach to reasonably predict the impacts from the implementation of EDP. The results of the costs and benefits analyses were then integrated into a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simplified Methodology to Estimate the Maximum Liquid Helium (LHe) Cryostat Pressure from a Vacuum Jacket Failure

The aircraft-based Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is a platform for multiple infrared astronomical observation experiments. These experiments carry sensors cooled to liquid helium temperatures. The liquid helium supply is contained in large (i.e., 10 liters or more) vacuum-insulated dewars. Should the dewar vacuum insulation fail, the inrushing air will condense and freeze on the dewar wall, resulting in a large heat flux on the dewar's contents. The heat flux results in a rise in pressure and the actuation of the dewar pressure relief system. A previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) assessment provided recommendations for the wall heat flux that would be expected from a loss of vacuum and detailed an appropriate method to use in calculating the maximum pressure that would occur in a loss of vacuum event. This method involved building a detailed supercritical helium compressible flow thermal/fluid model of the vent stack and exercising the model over the appropriate range of parameters. The experimenters designing science instruments for SOFIA are not experts in compressible supercritical flows and do not generally have access to the thermal/fluid modeling packages that are required to build detailed models of the vent stacks. Therefore, the SOFIA Program engaged the NESC to develop a simplified methodology to estimate the maximum pressure in a liquid helium dewar after the loss of vacuum insulation. The method would allow the university-based science instrument development teams to conservatively determine the cryostat's vent neck sizing during preliminary design of new SOFIA Science Instruments. This report details the development of the simplified method, the method itself, and the limits of its applicability. The simplified methodology provides an estimate of the dewar pressure after a loss of vacuum insulation that can be used for the initial design of the liquid helium dewar vent stacks. However, since it is not an exact tool, final verification of the dewar pressure vessel design requires a complete, detailed real fluid compressible flow model of the vent stack. The wall heat flux resulting from a loss of vacuum insulation increases the dewar pressure, which actuates the pressure relief mechanism and results in high-speed flow through the dewar vent stack. At high pressures, the flow can be choked at the vent stack inlet, at the exit, or at an intermediate transition or restriction. During previous SOFIA analyses, it was observed that there was generally a readily identifiable section of the vent stack that would limit the flow – e.g., a small diameter entrance or an orifice. It was also found that when the supercritical helium was approximated as an ideal gas at the dewar condition, the calculated mass flow rate based on choking at the limiting entrance or transition was less than the mass flow rate calculated using the detailed real fluid model2. Using this lower mass flow rate would yield a conservative prediction of the dewar’s wall heat flux capability. The simplified method of the current work was developed by building on this observation.

Ungar, Eugene K.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integrated Formation Optical Communication and Estimation System

An architecture has been designed that integrates formation estimation methodologies, precision formation sensing, and high-bandwidth formation communication into a robust, strap-on system that meets knowledge and communication requirements for the majority of planned, precision formation missions. Specifically, the integrated system supports (a) sub-millimeter metrology, (b) multiple greater than 10 Mbps communication channels over a large, 10 deg field-of-view (FOV), and (c) generalized formation estimation methodologies. The sensing sub-system consists of several absolute, metrology gauges with up to 0.1 mm precision that use amplitude-modulated lasers and a LISA-heritage phase meter. Since amplitude modulation is used, inexpensive and robust diode lasers may be used instead of complex, frequency-stabilized lasers such as for nanometer-level metrology. The metrology subsystem laser transceivers consist of a laser diode, collecting optics, and an avalanche photo diode (APD) for detecting incoming laser signals. The APD is necessary since received power is small due to the large (for optical applications) FOV. The phase meter determines the phase of the incoming amplitude modulations as measured by the APD. This phase is equivalent to time-of-flight and, therefore, distance. By placing three laser transceivers on each spacecraft, 18 clock-offset-corrupted distances are calculated. These measurements are communicated and averaged to obtain nine correct distances between the transceivers. From these correct distances, the range and bearing between spacecraft and their relative attitude are determined. Next, communication is integrated on the laser carrier through spectral separation. Metrology amplitude modulations are limited to the 45-50 MHz band, leaving 0-45 MHz for communication. Through careful design of coding scheme, error correction, and filters, six independent 10 Mbps receive channels are possible. Hence, a spacecraft can simultaneously broadcast at 10 Mbps and listen to six other spacecraft. The integrated sensing and communication architecture has been developed, as have formation estimation methodologies that allow the sensing topology to reconfigure as spacecraft maneuver. A bench-top implementation of the integrated sensing and communication architecture is in progress. The final, multiple sensing/communication systems will be tied together via formation estimation algorithms that are also undergoing further development.

Scharf, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2021

A rigorous physics-based enhanced parameter estimation (EPE) methodology for calibration of building energy simulations

Buildings rarely perform as designed/simulated and there are numerous tangible benefits if this gap is reconciled. A new scientifically rigorous yet pragmatic methodology for calibrating building energy simulations - called Enhanced Parameter Estimation (EPE) - is proposed that allows physically relevant parameter estimation rather than a blind force-fit to energy use data. Starting with a rapidly created simulation model, calibration is performed in two stages: (a) building shell calibration with the HVAC system replaced by an ideal system that meets the loads (b) HVAC system calibration with the building shell and all internal loads replaced by a box with only process loads. In the first stage, EPE identifies a small number of high-level heat flows in the energy balance, calculates them with specifically tailored individual driving functions, introduces physically significant parameters to best accomplish energy balance, and, estimates the parameters and their uncertainty bounds. Calibration is thus done with corrective heat flows without any arbitrary tuning of input parameters. Calibration accuracy is enhanced by machine learning of the residual errors. The EPE methodology is demonstrated by means of: a synthetic building and an actual 75,000 sq. ft. building in Pennsylvania. Future work needed for widespread application is discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗