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DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cost and community perspective on the barriers to microbiome data reuse

Microbiome research is becoming a mature field with a wealth of data amassed from diverse ecosystems, yet the ability to fully leverage multi-omics data for reuse remains challenging. To provide a view into researchers’ behavior and attitudes towards data reuse, we surveyed over 700 microbiome researchers to evaluate data sharing and reuse challenges. We found that many researchers are impeded by difficulties with metadata records, challenges with processing and bioinformatics, and problems with data repository submissions. We also explored the cost constraints of data reuse at each step of the data reuse process to better understand “pain points” and to provide a more quantitative perspective from sixteen active researchers. The bioinformatics and data processing step was estimated to be the most time consuming, which aligns with some of the most frequently reported challenges from the community survey. From these two approaches, we present evidence-based recommendations for how to address data sharing and reuse challenges with concrete actions for future work.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

LATTE: open-source, high-performance traveltime computation, tomography and source location in acoustic and elastic media

Traveltime-based tomography and source location are fundamental approaches for imaging subsurface structures and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity from local to global scales. We present an open-source, high-performance framework integrating eikonal equation solvers and adjoint-state theory for traveltime computation, velocity tomography, source location and joint tomography-location in 2-D/3-D acoustic and elastic media. We introduce novel regularization schemes based on total generalized p-variation, structural similarity and multitask machine learning to enhance the fidelity and interpretability of inverted models and source locations. Key features of our implementation also include the ability to leverage both absolute-difference and double-difference traveltime misfits for high-fidelity velocity tomography and source parameter estimation; support for traveltime computation and inversion in diverse 2-D/3-D scenarios with arbitrary source and receiver distributions; and a perturbation-based optimal step-size estimation method to reduce computational costs. In addition, our implementation employs shared-memory and distributed-memory parallelization to provide an efficient solution for traveltime computation, tomography, and source location. In conclusion, we validate the efficacy and accuracy of our approach through multiple synthetic data examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Critical Customer Outages Resulting from Extreme Hurricanes

US power outage data has been collected by organizations such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) through Environment for Analysis Geo-Located Energy Infrastructure (EAGLE-I: freely available) and poweroutage.us (commercial data: available to purchase). However, these sources do not provide information specific to outages of critical customers. Critical customers include entities, facilities, and individuals whose continuous access to electricity is essential for public safety, emergency response, disaster recovery, the well-being of vulnerable populations, public safety and order, and public utilities such as natural gas, communications, water and sanitation. Identification and geolocation of critical customers is crucial for understanding and addressing the effects of power outages on essential services and ensuring that necessary measures are taken to maintain their operations during power disruptions. This work is a first step towards estimating the occurrences of critical customer outages and developing a critical customer power outage data repository. This work estimates outage incidents of critical customers through spatiotemporal mapping of power outage data, weather data, building data, and critical infrastructure network data. Our results show that critical customer effects vary across different counties. We provide appropriate mathematical explanations and simplifications to define and systematize the proposed approach.

Bhusal, Narayan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222752145)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Magnus method for electronic structure calculations at extreme conditions

We present the application of Magnus based methods to the solution of first order coupled ordinary differential equations in High Energy Density (HED) physics applications. Our focus is on the application to quantum mechanical methods, specifically on the solution of the radial Dirac equation for real and complex energies. HED applications require accurate solutions across a wide range of spatial and energy domains, including regimes where the solutions exhibit pronounced oscillatory behavior. Such cases pose significant computational challenges. We demonstrate that Magnus-based integrators can efficiently and accurately address these challenges. We discuss the implementation of the Magnus method for the solution of the radial Dirac equation, including practical considerations such as the evaluation of matrix exponentials, numerical integration, error estimation, and adaptive step size control. We also discuss the application of these methods to complex energy Green’s function techniques and the efficient approximation of integrals of the solutions relevant to HED electronic structure calculations. Here, we demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the resulting method in applications to the free-particle case, for which analytic solutions are available for comparison, as well as the challenging case of gold at HED conditions.

general physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Automatic EXAFS First-Shell Fits

Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) is a widely used technique for atomic structure determination. Fourier transformation connects EXAFS in k space and R space. However, determining the appropriate k-range for the transformation can be challenging, but critical for the first-shell fit. In this study, we present an automatic method to determine the k-range using the Larch package and a Python program. The first step is to estimate spectral noise across a series of k-ranges with a fixed minimum value and identify the optimal maximum value in the k-range (k max ). The k max is determined by an empirical noise threshold that marks the point where the noise level in the Fourier transformed spectrum changes dramatically. Using the obtained k max value, the first shell is modeled to determine the minimum k value (k min ) by optimizing the background function through alignment of the spectrum with theory. The optimal k min corresponds to the point of the minimum R-factor, which quantifies the difference between the experimental and fitted spectrum. Our method was tested on various typical datasets and yielded suitable k-ranges for Fourier transformation and accurate first-shell fits. This approach helps avoid unreliable, irreproducible data analysis, especially for noisy data from diluted samples, and enables robust automatic first-shell EXAFS fitting.

EXAFS analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and performance evaluation of active insulation systems using solid-state thermal switches

Traditional building envelopes have passive insulation systems that cannot respond to dynamic changes in the environment. An Active Insulation System (AIS) consists of Active Insulation Materials (AIMs) that dynamically vary the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Several researchers have evaluated the impact of AIS on building thermal and energy performance by using simulation tools. Up to 70% savings in annual heating and cooling energy and significant reductions in peak demand have been predicted for some climates with wall systems employing AIS. However, materials and assembly development still need a cost-effective product that achieves the required performance. Here, in this study, we present the process of developing an AIS that we will install in a test hut for its performance evaluation. Minimum performance criteria of the AIS system are developed based on R-low/R-high ratio, required time and efficiency to switch states, and cost estimates. The following steps during this study are creating the concept to meet the requirements, predicting the performance via simulations, developing the experimental setup for bench-scale testing, and finally, constructing a full-scale wall assembly and monitoring the performance when exposed to environmental chamber tests. The selected approach uses off-the-shelf products to create an AIS that can switch R-value between 0.98 ft 2 ·°F·h/BTU (0.173 m 2 ·K/W) and 5.81 ft 2 ·°F·h/BTU (1.02 m 2 ·K/W) and have a switching time of less than one minute between R-high and R-low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

photoemission

The code is a python package that implements a one-step model to estimate quantum efficiency of photoemission from solid state surfaces. The analytical formulation is based on the approach proposed in Phys Rev B 95, 075439 (2017). This code extends that formalism from a model Hamiltonian to the calculation of quantum efficiency from the electronic states derived from solid-state quantum mechanical calculations obtained using the VASP code.

Batista, Enrique↗

DOE OSTI2025

Floating Offshore Wind US Manufacturing and Commercialization (CRADA Final Report)

Create a detailed manufacturing, assembly, load-out, transportation, upending, turbine integration, and offshore transportation plan for a hypothetical project in one of the California lease areas off the central coast. Develop a detailed schedule and cost estimation for each step of the process and compare with conventional floating platform designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Patch2Self2: Self-supervised Denoising on Coresets via Matrix Sketching

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) non-invasively maps brain white matter yet necessitates denoising due to low signal-to-noise ratios. Patch2Self (P2S) employing self-supervised techniques and regression on a Casorati matrix effectively denoises dMRI images and has become the new de-facto standard in this field. P2S however is resource intensive both in terms of running time and memory usage as it uses all voxels (n) from all-but-one held-in volumes (d-1) to learn a linear mapping Phi : \mathbb R ^ n x(d-1) \mapsto \mathbb R ^ n for denoising the held-out volume. The increasing size and dimensionality of higher resolution dMRI acquisitions can make P2S infeasible for large-scale analyses. This work exploits the redundancy imposed by P2S to alleviate its performance issues and inspect regions that influence the noise disproportionately. Specifically this study makes a three-fold contribution: (1) We present Patch2Self2 (P2S2) a method that uses matrix sketching to perform self-supervised denoising. By solving a sub-problem on a smaller sub-space so called coreset we show how P2S2 can yield a significant speedup in training time while using less memory. (2) We present a theoretical analysis of P2S2 focusing on determining the optimal sketch size through rank estimation a key step in achieving a balance between denoising accuracy and computational efficiency. (3) We show how the so-called statistical leverage scores can be used to interpret the denoising of dMRI data a process that was traditionally treated as a black-box. Experimental results on both simulated and real data affirm that P2S2 maintains denoising quality while significantly enhancing speed and memory efficiency achieved by training on a reduced data subset.

Fadnavis, Shreyas↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Gas Plume Identification Using Nearest Neighbor Methods for Background Estimation

Longwave infrared (LWIR) hyperspectral imaging (HSI) can be used for many tasks in remote sensing, including detecting and identifying effluent gases by LWIR sensors on airborne platforms. Identification is used after detection to increase confidence in weakly detected plumes, reduce false positives from detection, and distinguish between similar and confounding material signatures. Background estimation is an important step used to reveal the unique spectral characteristics of the detected gas, allowing the identification model to determine what the gas is specifically. The importance of proper background estimation increases when dealing with weak signals, large libraries of gases of interest, and uncommon or heterogeneous backgrounds. In this article, we propose two methods for background estimation: a novel k-nearest segments (KNS) algorithm and the standard k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm. We test our methods and three existing background estimation methods for comparison against global background estimation to determine which performs best at estimating the true background radiance under a plume and for increasing identification confidence using a neural network classification model. We compare the different methods using 640 simulated weak plumes in an urban environment. For identification, our KNS algorithm improves median neural network identification confidence by 53.2%. For background radiance estimation, the KNN algorithm provides a median of 49 times less RMSE than global background estimation. Furthermore, KNN is the easiest method to tune for different plumes, making it an excellent “out of the box” background estimator.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Afterglow in Scintillation-based x-ray detectors for spacetime-resolved computed tomography for accelerated acquisition and high-speed event capture

Afterglow in x-ray imaging for high-speed radiography is a constraint that limits imaging systems to low-light/fast decay screens which create poor data. Current approaches focus purely on using low-light yield screens with fast decay to avoid multiple exposure pileup due to afterglow. The goal of this work is to develop a statistical estimation approach to leverage afterglow to improve image quality thus allowing for higher quality imaging components to be used. This will allow for bright screens will slow decay to be used, and then a post-processing step applies the statistical estimation to separate each frame with superior signal compared to low-light/fast decay screens.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydropower potential derived from streamflow extremes for Alaska, USA

Alaska is an expansive region known for its abundant natural resources, including thousands of miles of streams and rivers. These rivers represent potential opportunities for future hydropower development that could provide reliable energy supply for local communities. There is limited long-term high temporal resolution streamflow data available for the region, making data-driven estimates of potential hydropower and its variability across the state challenging. This study provides a novel data-driven approach for hydropower capacity estimation across Alaska. We use supervised machine learning to develop a relationship between the daily and peak flow duration curves in order to augment the size of our dataset from 44 sites to 67 sites. We perform a stochastic hydropower estimation across the 67 sites and identify approximately 1000 MW of total potential hydropower capacity distributed across these sites. Our study provides the first step towards more comprehensive hydropower estimation for this critical region, highlighting the need for future work integrating high-resolution spatial data, community needs, and economic constraints in estimates of potential hydropower development in Alaska.

Hydropower↗

DOE OSTI2026

ZTF-SEDm Type Ia supernova sample for Twins Embedding spectrophotometric standardization

Aims. This paper has two aims: the first aim is to build a large homogeneous spectrophotometric sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the second data release of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF DR2). We used the spectrum sample from the low-resolution ( R ∼ 100) SEDmachine (SEDm) Integral Field Spectrograph (IFS) that gathered 3069 spectra. This is one of the largest samples of such collections that can attempt to reproduce the Twins Embedding (TE) spectrophotometric standardization method. This is our second objective. The method was developed based on high-quality spectra from 200 SNe Ia of the Nearby Supernova factory (SNfactory) and led to an exceptionally low value of 0.073 mag for the intrinsic scatter. Methods. As the SEDm is not designed as a spectrophotometric instrument, we first improved the flux-calibration accuracy of the SN Ia spectrum sample using the ZTF photometric data, which were calibrated at the percent level. We corrected the spectra for second-order polynomials, fitted by comparing the synthetic photometry in the ZTF g , r , i filters with the light-curve (LC) data. We then applied the three steps of the TE parameterization to a subset of 783 ZTF SN spectra near maximum light while comparing results from SNfactory and ZTF. We finally analyzed the standardization methods based on the TE parameters. Results. The precision of the phase-correction model, which is the first step of the TE, is estimated at 0.01 mag in g band based on ZTF data. Despite the challenge posed by the spectrum-extraction pipeline associated with the SEDm (flux calibration, leftover host signal, low signal-to-noise ratio, and low resolution), we applied a first standardization in color based on the second step of the TE, called read between the lines (RBTL), to the ZTF sample. We reached a Hubble residual scatter of 0.153 mag, all in normalized median absolute deviation, which is to be compared to the ∼0.11 mag obtained with the SNfactory data. The SALT color and stretch standardization reaches a scatter of 0.164 mag for the same ZTF SN Ia sample, and its host steps are ∼0.1 mag and zero for RBTL. When considering the scatter due to the redshift error and flux calibration error, we estimated a RBTL scatter of ∼0.129 mag for this ZTF sample as an upper limit because we identified an additional contribution from a systematic error in color. We tested the standardization based on the nonlinear TE parameters, and, as expected from the low spectrum quality, it did not improve the overall dispersion. Conclusions. We release 1897 flux calibrated spectra of 1607 SNe Ia with an estimated photometric accuracy of 0.07 mag. We further demonstrate that some amount of spectrophotometric SN Ia standardization can be done with limited-quality spectra. The RBTL standardization is more efficient than that of SALT with one parameter less, and the resulting host steps are consistent with zero. This makes it less prone to astrophysical bias. For future spectroscopic surveys, targeting the extraction pipeline for a thorough flux calibration and good signal-to-noise ratio would enable us to compute the full TE standardization, which would further reduce the scatter in the distance estimate.

Ganot, C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution System State Estimation Using a Multiple Iteration Extended Kalman Filter Approach

To support the operation of modern distribution systems, operators require real-time visibility into system states. Due to a lack of measurements and unbalanced operation, the state estimation in distribution systems is challenging as compared to transmission systems. This paper proposes the utilization of a Multiple Iteration - Extended Kalman Filter based approach for the distribution system state estimation. This modified version of the baseline extended Kalman filter iterates over the update step multiple times thereby reducing the estimation error. The proposed algorithm along with the auxiliary algorithms such as bad data detection is integrated into a co-simulation environment. Case studies show that the proposed state estimation method can result in a lesser estimation error as compared to the baseline approach.

Bhatti, Bilal Ahmad↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new “gold standard”: Perturbative triples corrections in unitary coupled cluster theory and prospects for quantum computing

A major difficulty in quantum simulation is the adequate treatment of a large collection of entangled particles, synonymous with electron correlation in electronic structure theory, with coupled cluster (CC) theory being the leading framework for dealing with this problem. Augmenting computationally affordable low-rank approximations in CC theory with a perturbative account of higher-rank excitations is a tractable and effective way of accounting for the missing electron correlation in those approximations. This is perhaps best exemplified by the “gold standard” CCSD(T) method, which bolsters the baseline CCSD with the effects of triple excitations using considerations from many-body perturbation theory (MBPT). Despite this established success, such a synergy between MBPT and the unitary analog of CC theory (UCC) has not been explored. In this work, we propose a similar approach wherein converged UCCSD amplitudes are leveraged to evaluate energy corrections associated with triple excitations, leading to the UCCSD[T] method. In terms of quantum computing, this correction represents an entirely classical post-processing step that improves the energy estimate by accounting for triple excitation effects without necessitating new quantum algorithm developments or increasing demand for quantum resources. The rationale behind this choice is shown to be rigorous by studying the properties of finite-order UCC energy functionals, and our efforts do not support the addition of the fifth-order contributions as in the (T) correction. We assess the performance of these approaches on a collection of small molecules and demonstrate the benefits of harnessing the inherent synergy between MBPT and UCC theories.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-burnup boiling water reactor steady-state operating conditions and fuel performance analysis

The primary operational costs for existing nuclear reactors are plant operation costs, maintenance costs, and fuel costs, all of which are influenced by the materials used and the design of the reactor core. Optimizing core design parameters—including burnup limits and enrichment levels—can lengthen cycles, reduce outages, reduce reload batch fractions and spent fuel storage requirements, and lower maintenance and operating expenses, thereby enhancing economic viability. Furthermore, developing higher-fidelity tools to simulate these parameters enables better identification of the available margin, improves overall plant safety, and improves the understanding a given plant’s responses to accident scenarios. Here, in the US, much of the research and development focus has traditionally been on pressurized water reactors (PWRs), but boiling water reactors (BWRs) comprise approximately one-third of the US reactor fleet. Modeling and simulation advances for BWRs and PWRs—particularly those achieved through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program—are crucial to the long-term viability of the light–water reactor industry. A key research area of the high burnup and increased enriched fuel initiative is focused on addressing issues related to postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. NEAMS has dedicated significant effort to enhancing tools to better support BWRs. A current focus is showcasing the BWR framework for high-burnup LOCA analysis. This high-fidelity steady-state analysis is a first step toward demonstrating a best-estimate, pin-by-pin high-burnup BWR LOCA analysis to assess full-core cladding rupture behavior for a representative BWR. The objective of this effort is to provide a modeling capability that will help elucidate and provide a best-estimate evaluation for cladding rupture susceptibility in BWRs. This modeling capability could then be used to prevent and/or mitigate cladding ruptures in postulated accident scenarios without penalizing operational parameters. Additionally, the results of this work will help identify strategies for finding additional margins or potentially limiting cladding ruptures through core design optimizations to enable more efficient core designs.

Capps, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗