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At least 19 records

An Operational Resilience Metric to Evaluate Inertia and Inverter-based Generation on the Grid

In an effort to reduce carbon emissions and curtail the effects of climate change there has been considerable effort to increase the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy sources. The adoption of renewable generation over conventional inertia-based generation sources is forming considerable challenges for the operation and stability of the power system. The power system has been designed around generation units characterized by high inertia and primary frequency response (PFR), allowing them to respond to disturbances such as faults or generators tripping off line. In contrast, the modern inverter-based assets are characterized by no contribution to inertia and they typically provide stochastic generation at their maximum output, thus having no contribution to PFR during low-frequency disturbance events. Because of this, inertia in power systems is reducing, resulting in a faster rate of frequency change after a disturbance occurs. As more inverter-based generation units are added to the grid it is important to understand the stability of the system and the size of disturbance a system is capable of withstanding. This paper presents a resilience metric that evaluates the maximum size of disturbance a systems can withstand based on the system inertia and the primary frequency control of inverter and inertia-based generation. The results are shown visually and are based on the real-time operation of generation units and their characteristics such as latency, ramp rates, and energy constraints. It is demonstrated that the real-time positioning or bias of the generating units has an effect of the size of disturbance that a system can withstand, i.e. its resilience. It is expected that this type of analysis can help operators increase the resilience of power systems in the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Machine Committee Framework for Power Grid Disturbances Analysis Using Synchrophasors Data

Events detection is a key challenge in power grid frequency disturbances analysis. Accurate detection of events is crucial for situational awareness of the power system. In this paper, we study the problem of events detection in power grid frequency disturbance analysis using synchrophasors data streams. Current events detection approaches for power grid rely on individual detection algorithm. This study integrates some of the existing detection algorithms using the concept of machine committee to develop improved detection approaches for grid disturbance analysis. Specifically, we propose two algorithms—an Event Detection Machine Committee (EDMC) algorithm and a Change-Point Detection Machine Committee (CPDMC) algorithm. Both algorithms use parallel architecture to fuse detection knowledge of its individual methods to arrive at an overall output. The EDMC algorithm combines five individual event detection methods, while the CPDMC algorithm combines two change-point detection methods. Each method performs the detection task separately. The overall output of each algorithm is then computed using a voting strategy. The proposed algorithms are evaluated using three case studies of actual power grid disturbances. Compared with the individual results of the various detection methods, we found that the EDMC algorithm is a better fit for analyzing synchrophasors data; it improves the detection accuracy; and it is suitable for practical scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Recent Efforts to Improve the Near Real Time Forest Disturbance Monitoring Capabilities of the ForWarn System

This presentation discusses the development of anew method for computing NDVI temporal composites from near real time eMODIS data This research is being conducted to improve forest change products used in the ForWarn system for monitoring regional forest disturbances in the United States. ForWarn provides nation-wide NDVI-based forest disturbance detection products that are refreshed every 8 days. Current eMODIS and historical MOD13 24 day NDVI data are used to compute the disturbance detection products. The eMODIS 24 day NDVI data re-aggregated from 7 day NDVI products. The 24 day eMODIS NDVIs are generally cloud free, but do not necessarily use the freshest quality data. To shorten the disturbance detection time, a method has been developed that performs adaptive length/maximum value compositing of eMODIS NDVI, along with cloud and shadow "noise" mitigation. Tests indicate that this method can reduce detection rates by 8-16 days for known recent disturbance events, depending on the cloud frequencies and disturbance type. The noise mitigation in these tests, though imperfect, helped to improve quality of the resulting NDVI and forest change products.

Spruce, Joseph↗

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗

Experimental Characterization of High-Surface Area Thermal Energy Storage

There is growing interest in energy storage technologies due to the expansion of renewable energy sources that are inherently intermittent and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events that disturb the power grid. Power consumption in buildings makes up approximately 76% of all electricity usage on the grid and is primarily used for thermal applications such as space conditioning, hot water, and cooking. This makes thermal energy storage (TES) an ideal solution for many of these applications. Many TES technologies rely on latent energy storage, which utilizes the melting/solidification of phase change materials (PCM) to store energy. Typically, TES designs suffer from low power density due to their low inherent thermal conductivity. This limitation makes the deployment of TES in active applications difficult as the ease of access to energy is essential for effective use. Common routes for improving power density include high thermal conductivity additives or extended features such as fins that increase cost. This study presents an alternative approach to improving performance through increasing the overall surface area to volume ratio of the device, to increase the available area for convection to occur between the working fluid and PCM. In the study a commercial PCM was selected with a transition temperature ideal for space heating applications. The heat exchanger design utilizes a unique application of triply periodic minimal surfaces (TPMS) for macro-encapsulation of the PCM. The use of TPMS for heat exchangers has been growing in interest due to their high-surface area to volume ratios, which were previously unmanufacturable until the development of additive manufacturing. A modular system was designed and manufactured with a stereolithography resin printing system that is then backfilled with PCM. An experiment test set-up is designed to test the charge and discharge performance of the thermal storage using a conditioned air stream. The pressure drop of the design is tested across a variety of flow rates. When compared to existing experimental data within literature, there is excellent agreement based on the Reynolds number at similar hydraulic diameters. Several inlet temperatures are tested at consistent temperature differences from the phase change temperature for both charging and discharging. Additionally, the volumetric flow rate is varied for each temperature set point. It was found that increasing flow rate had diminishing returns in reducing the overall charge time of the TES. The temperature delta from the melting temperature was the primary contributor to the change in average heat flux with limited variation in average heat transfer rate between charging and discharging at similar inlet temperatures and flow rates. The TPMS heat exchanger design has a high air-side pressure drop but it provides high heat transfer rates. This helps maintain a high outlet temperature during discharge, which is important to thermal comfort applications. The design, manufacturing, and experimental characterization of the TES device will be presented as part of this study.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Guided Resilience Self Assessment Application

Reliable electricity access is vital for everything from hospitals to national security. When grid disturbances occur, it is crucial to minimize the amount of time it takes to recover. Grid resiliency considers both the preparation for and recovery from high-impact low-frequency disturbances (HILF) such as weather events and cyber attacks. The Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) funds the multi-laboratory Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Control Launchpad (MIRACL) project to investigate technologies to support and grow distributed wind. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) contribute to resilience and cybersecurity efforts for the project, and have produced a resilience framework to evaluate system resilience based on individual system specifications. In order to make this framework easy for anyone to apply, I have coded a web application that allows users to input their power system qualities, goals, and perceived risks and then receive suggestions on how to improve their grid resiliency. The web application follows the seven steps in the planning stage of the framework process, allowing the user to input information about their grid and select from common goals, metrics, and hazards, as well as add their own. The application currently provides information about how to complete each step, requiring minimal prior knowledge of the framework. Future work for this application will include allowing the user to submit line drawings of their system and incorporate modeling tools so that the hazard simulations of applying the framework is completed for the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Offline Power Systems Applications Enabled by Phasor Measurement Units: Technical Assistance to the Power Sectors of Southeast Asia

This report provides a brief overview of several offline (non-real-time) applications facilitated by high-resolution time-synchronized measurements recorded by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The high reporting rate and time-synchronization of PMU records provide a detailed view of power system dynamics, enabling electric utilities to obtain a better understanding of their systems. In this report, the following applications have been reviewed: Power plant model validation, System model validation, Ringdown oscillation analysis, Frequency response analysis, Postmortem analysis of disturbance events Along with a brief technical background of the applications above, applicable North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards have been discussed, and examples of implementation in North American organizations have been provided. Implementing several of the discussed applications may need a preliminary stage of data gathering from multiple entities, and several frameworks and process flows have been formulated by organizations around the world for this purpose. However, the data-gathering stage has not been considered in the scope of the present report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An experimental search for near-wall boundary conditions for large eddy simulation

Instantaneous wall shear stress and streamwise velocities have been measured simultaneously in a flat plate, turbulent boundary layer at moderate Reynolds number in an effort to provide experimental support for large eddy simulations. Data were obtained by using a buried-wire wall shear gage and a hot-wire rake positioned in the log region of the flow. All data processing was accomplished with digital data analysis techniques on a minicomputer. Fluctuations of the instantaneous U plus versus Y plus profiles about a mean law of the wall are shown to be significant and complex. Peak cross-correlation values between wall shear stress and the velocities are high and reflect the passage of a large structure inclined at a small angle to the wall. Estimates of this angle are consistent with those made by other investigators. Conditional sampling techniques were used to detect the passage of various sizes and types of flow disturbances (events) and to estimate their mean frequency of occurrence. Events characterized by large and sudden streamwise accelerations were found to be highly coherent throughout the log region and were strongly correlated with large fluctuations in wall shear-stress. Phase randomness between the near-wall quantities and the outer velocities was small. The results suggest that the flow events detected by conditional sampling applied to velocities in the log region may be related to the bursting process.

Robinson, S. K.↗

Instantaneous velocity profile measurements in a turbulent boundary layer

Instantaneous wall shear stress and streamwise velocities have been measured simultaneously in a flat-plate, turbulent boundary layer at moderate Reynolds number in an effort to provide experimental support for large eddy simulations. Data were obtained using a buried-wire, wall shear gage and a hot-wire rake positioned in the log region of the flow. Fluctuations of the instantaneous U(+) versus Y(+) profiles about a mean law of the wall are shown to be significant and complex. Peak cross-correlation values between wall shear stress and the velocities are high, and reflect the passage of a large structure inclined at a small angle to the wall. Estimates of this angle are consistent with those made by other investigators. Conditional sampling techniques were used to detect the passage of various sizes and types of flow disturbances (events), and to estimate their mean frequency of occurrence. Events characterized by large aand sudden streamwise accelerations were found to be highly coherent throughout the log region and were strongly correlated with large fluctuations in wall shear stress. Phase randomness between the near-wall quantities and the outer velocities was small. The results suggest that the flow events detected by conditional sampling applied to velocities in the log region may be related to the bursting process.

Robinson, S. K.↗

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗

Practical Event Location Estimation Algorithm for Power Transmission System Based on Triangulation and Oscillation Intensity

Event location in power systems is quite essential information for system operators to enhance control-room situational awareness capability. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop an event location estimation algorithm for transmission systems with high accuracy. With the development of wide-area measurement system (WAMS) such as FNET/GridEye, and the synchrophasor measurement devices (SMDs) such as frequency disturbance recorders (FDRs), the synchronous measurement data including frequency, voltage amplitude and phase angle can be collected and used for event location estimation. First, the phase angle and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) trajectories are respectively used for determining two sets of wave arrival time associated with each FDR. Then, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is utilized to determine the wave arrival order to select the more suitable set of wave arrival times for a given case and to perform corresponding modifications. Next, the oscillation intensity associated with each FDR is determined based on phase angle trajectories in the center of inertia (COI) coordinate system. Finally, the multiple criteria for event location estimation are represented. In conclusion, case studies and comparisons between the proposed and previous algorithms using actual and confirmed cases in U.S. power systems are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness and improvement of the proposed algorithm in practical applications.

frequency disturbance recorder (FDR)↗

Bulk Grid Frequency Support Using Electrolyzers

Increasing renewable penetration in the bulk power systems has resulted in declining inertial response of the generation during system disturbances. This results in larger frequency deviations and oscillations during such events. This paper proposes a strategy for controlled dispatch of electrolyzers as loads to improve the system’s frequency response. A droop based controller with constraints based on electrolyzer operating limits has been developed to regulate its load. Consecutively, a localized frequency based control strategy has been developed to support the bulk system during disturbances. The impact of the electrolyzer support has been demonstrated using the 23-bus SAVNW system, and the 240-bus WECC system for baseline, 25% and 50% renewable penetration. The impact of changing droop settings and the available controllable electrolyzer capacities on the system’s frequency response has also been presented. Overall, the dispatchable electrolyzers helps improve (reduce) both the maximum frequency deviation and the settling times during common disturbances like loss of load/generation, and line faults. Systems with lower inertia were seen to benefit more from the controlled electrolyzer dispatch.

39 EE - Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies (EE-3F↗

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila National Forest (Gila NF), wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances, such as the historic Whitewater Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013), have raised concerns over post-fire flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding connections between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure conservation of the watershed. The Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project provided insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and determined if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial impact on vegetation regeneration. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000-2019, this project used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM precipitation, along with ancillary data from USGS stream gauges and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3. Based on these data, the team identified burn areas that received restorative treatments and compared Normalized Burn Ratio for different land cover types to better inform land management decisions. Additionally, the team analyzed the relationship between precipitation and streamflow from stream gauges to investigate the impact wildfires have on hydrology within the watershed.

Water Resources↗

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila NF, wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances such as the historic Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013) have raised concerns over post-fire soil erosion, flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding the connection between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure the conservation of the watershed. Our Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project was designed to provide insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and to determine if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial and noticeable impact on recovery. The goals of this project included generating data-supported end products to inform land management decisions, including the prioritization of specific regions and time scales for post-fire restoration efforts. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000 and 2020, this project used NASA EO and ancillary data, including, but not limited to, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), USGS stream gauge data, and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3.

Water Resources↗

Observations of large transient magnetospheric electric fields

Transient electric field events were observed with the long, double probe instrumentation carried by the IMP-6 satellite. Nine, clearly defined, exceptionally large amplitude events are presented here. The events are observed in the midnight sector at geocentric distances 3.5 to .5.5 R sub e at middle latitudes within a magnetic L-shell range of 4.8 to 7.5. They usually have a total duration of one to several minutes, with peak power spectra amplitudes occurring at a frequency of about 0.3 Hz. The events occur under magnetically disturbed conditions, and in most cases they can be associated with negative dH/dt excursions at magnetic observatories located near the foot of the magnetic field line intersecting IMP-6. The magnetospheric motions calculated for these electric fields indicated a quasi-stochastical diffusive process rather than the general inward magnetospheric collapsing motion expected during the expansive phases of auroral substorm activity.

Aggson, T. L.↗

Observations of large transient magnetospheric electric fields

Transient electric field events were studied by means of the long double-probe instrumentation carried by the Imp 6 satellite, and nine clearly defined exceptionally large amplitude events are described. The events were observed in the midnight sector at geocentric distances of 3.5 to 5.5 earth radii at middle latitudes within a magnetic L shell range of 4.8 to 7.5; the duration is from one to several minutes with peak power spectra amplitudes occurring at a frequency of about 0.3 Hz. The events occur under magnetically disturbed conditions and are often associated with negative dH/dt excursions. The magnetospheric motions calculated for these electric fields indicate a quasi-stochastical diffusive process rather than the general inward magnetospheric collapsing motion expected during the expansive phases of auroral substorm activity. It is likely that the transient electric fields are responsible for the impulsive acceleration and injection of plasma to populate the outer radiation belt.

Aggson, T. L.↗