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Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies

Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies

Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand

Distribution transformers, used to step-down medium voltage to service-voltage level for end-use electrical consumption, are currently experiencing major shortages. Utilities are experiencing extended lead times for transformers of up to 2 years (a 4x increase on lead times pre-2022) and prices have gone up by as much as 5-6 times in the past 2 years. Current shortages have been attributed to pent-up post-pandemic demand, workforce shortages and low retention rates, component supply chain challenges, and materials shortages (grain-oriented electrical steel, aluminum, and copper). The supply of this equipment is critical for the reliability and growth of the power system, and in meeting administration climate goals in terms of electrification of demand and the growth of renewable energy. This report details some of the initial analysis conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity and Office of Policy, in assessing the long-term demand trends for distribution transformers. Expected increased demand is due to a confluence of not only electrification and renewable energy growth, but also in the context of aging electric infrastructure, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and utility-driven investments in reliability and resiliency of the electricity distribution system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Large Power Transformer Supply Chain Gap Analysis and Domestic Content Strategies for Hydropower Rehabilitation: Supplemental Report

Large Power Transformers (LPTs) are indispensable to U.S. hydropower operations, serving as generator step-up (GSU) units that interconnect hydro facilities to the transmission grid. Yet the LPT supply chain faces mounting stress from aging infrastructure, limited domestic production, and long lead times. Currently, more than 80% of LPT demand is met through imports, with primary suppliers including Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, Austria, and Canada. Domestic manufacturers supply only about 20% of units, constrained by bottlenecks in high-grade Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES), copper conductors, bushings, and on-load tap changers (OLTCs). Hydropower rehabilitation projects in particular face additional challenges due to custom design requirements, remote siting, and regulatory needs around domestic content. Regional cost disparities, driven by transportation logistics, labor markets, and import price volatility, further exacerbate project risks. To address these vulnerabilities, coordinated action is required: strengthening domestic capacity for GOES and secondary components, developing near-site assembly hubs, and leveraging IRS domestic content safe harbors to incentivize U.S. manufacturing. This addendum refines the 2024 NREL Hydropower Supply Chain Gap Analysis by focusing specifically on critical issues related to LPT domestic manufacturing capacity and key considerations for hydropower developers and asset owners.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Regal Beloit Final Technical Report

The original project proposal submitted from NovaTorque Inc (NovaTorque) in 2016 was to improve the existing motor with 95% efficiency by reducing the losses by 21% to achieve 96%. A few months after the proposal was submitted, NovaTorque lost funding and went out of business. The assets of NovaTorque were then acquired by Regal Beloit Corporation (“Regal Beloit” or “Regal”). When the NovaTorque proposal was selected, the project was transferred to Regal Beloit. Once we had production samples from the new Regal production line, they were tested at the Regal Beloit test lab in Wausau, WI. The original NovaTorque motor had an efficiency of 95%, but when the technology was transferred to Regal Beloit, there were multiple manufacturing improvements made, even though the basic electromagnetic design did not change. The test results in Wausau showed that the motors made at the Regal Beloit plant had an efficiency of 96%. Since the goal of the project was to reduce the losses by 21%, a new efficiency target of 96.8% became the project objective. In the first budget period, motors were tested to get the baseline performance. We then used FEA modeling with ANSYS Maxwell to model the existing motor to get correlation between the FEA simulations and the actual test results. Once the model was validated, we evaluated some changes that could be made to the stator to reduce the losses and improve efficiency without changing the rotor or stator housing, keeping the modifications easy to implement. The changes were primarily in the area of making the stator axially shorter and adding Soft Magnetic Composite (SMC) tooth tips. In the second budget period, we proceeded to design and build the new stator that was identified above and identified additional improvements in the process that included a stator machining modification and the use of rectangular wire. When we actually built the motor, the choice of rectangular wire turned out to be a problem. The wire was made by squishing round wire to get the rectangular shape, which caused work hardening, making the wire too stiff to make the desired coils. We shifted to annealed square wire which was better, but we still could not maintain the proper coil envelope. The result was that we had reduced cross section area for stator laminations. We also had to have a radial offset resulting in a radial misalignment between the stator and rotor because of the oversized coils. After the motor was completed, it was shipped to Texas A&M University for testing. With the loss of flux from these issues, the measured motor efficiency was only 96.3%. The primary focus of this motor was to make sure our FEA simulation model predicted the measured losses and overall efficiency, this we moved on to the FEA simulation. The FEA simulations of the motor “as built” with misalignments had good correlation with the test results, so the next step was to use that model to optimize the design of the motor for a final build. This time we considered changes to the stator and rotor and also minor changes to the housing diameter. In the third budget period, we did the detailed design and construction of the final prototypes. The final prototypes had a slight increase in the stator diameter to fit in a standard Regal Beloit housing. We shortened the stator and use more layers of wire in the coils. We also increased the cone angle of the rotor and stator from the original 110 degrees to 130 degrees to get some additional efficiency and optimized the stator cross section. The predicted efficiency from the FEA simulations was 96.9%. When completed, the motors were tested. We were a little short of reaching our target efficiency goal of 96.8%. We were only able to get to 96.7% efficiency. While it may be possible with additional iterations in designs and future builds to gain that additional 0.1%, we believe that we are close to the best we can achieve from a practical viewpoint, and additional iterations would be more work than the potential gains would be worth. No other motor in this class can even reach the 96% that we started with.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Influence of energy density on the microstructure, growth orientation, and anisotropy of magnetic properties in additively manufactured Fe-3.8wt%Si transformer steels

Fe-3.8wt%Si transformer steels were processed using two different additive manufacturing (AM) techniques, laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and directed energy deposition (DED). While the LPBF processed samples exhibited a strong <001> orientation of the BCC grains along the build axis, the DED processed samples exhibited a randomized texture along the build axis. DED processed samples showed substantially coarser columnar grains as compared to their LPBF counterparts. Here, the columnar grains exhibited a substantial number of low-angle sub-grain boundaries. All samples exhibited very good soft magnetic properties, with saturation magnetization (M s ) values ranging from 205 - 232 emu/gm, and coercivity (H c ) values ranging from 1.2 – 4.2 Oe. The Coercivity (H c ) values were significantly lower when the magnetic field was applied parallel to the build axis, as compared to being perpendicular, which can be rationalized based on the columnar nature of the grains, resulting in a higher number density of grain boundaries in case of the field applied perpendicular to the build axis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy-resolved neutron imaging and diffraction including grain orientation mapping using event camera technology

Time-of-flight neutron diffraction and energy-resolved imaging each provide unique perspectives into material properties. Neutron diffraction is useful for assessing microstructural parameters such as phase composition, texture, and dislocation densities, though it typically provides averaged data over the sampled volume. Energy-resolved imaging, on the other hand, offers both spatial and spectral information by detecting Bragg edges and neutron absorption resonances, which enables detailed mapping of microstructure and isotopic composition. When combined, these techniques have the potential to enrich our understanding of material behavior across different scales, enhancing our understanding of complex materials. Traditionally, these modalities are conducted on separate instruments, which is time-consuming and poses challenges for data integration. Here, we report the integration of the LumaCam, an event-mode energy-resolved neutron imaging camera with the HIPPO time-of-flight diffractometer at LANSCE. This integration enables simultaneous diffraction and imaging across the full spectrum, with analysis optimized for diffraction and Bragg-edge imaging in the thermal range (0.45–10 Å) and resonance imaging in the epithermal range (0.5–3000 eV), facilitating comprehensive multi-modal analysis. We demonstrate its capabilities through case studies, including spatial mapping of grain orientations in a steel sample and accurate thickness estimations for irregular samples including a depleted uranium cylinder and a natural silver-containing mineral specimen. The combined setup enhances real-time sample alignment and provides comprehensive data for crystal structure, texture, and isotopic composition analysis. This approach opens new possibilities for advanced applications in nuclear engineering, archaeology, and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-Driven Optimization of the Processing Window for 316H Components Fabricated Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program is focused on accelerating the development and deployment of advanced materials and components fabricated via additive manufacturing with a specific focus on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). As an initial case study, the program has selected 316H stainless steel (SS) as an initial material around which to develop a code case development strategy. This strategy involves two parallel approaches: (1) an equivalency approach whereby round-robin testing across multiple collaborating laboratories demonstrates repeatability in processing and direct comparisons with conventional wrought 316H material and (2) a revolutionary approach to code qualification combining in situ data collection and high-fidelity modeling to capture, predict, and bound the performance of LPBF 316HSS components. As part of this campaign, this work package has initiated an extensive process optimization campaign across three laboratories, each printing variations of LPBF 316HSS using three different LPBF units (Concept Laser, EOS, and Renishaw). In FY23, ORNL has focused on unique experimental designs spanning wide ranges in energy inputs and turning knobs such as scan speed, laser power, hatch spacing, layer thickness, spot size, scan rotation, and more. On the Concept Laser M2, 72 different combinations of processing variables were investigated with duplicate samples and different powder compositions. In total, 252 samples were printed with combined in situ sensing data. A parallel design of experiments was conducted on the Renishaw AM400 with an additional 390 printed specimens for analysis. All 642 miniature specimens, each with unique features included in each print to capture geometry-related heterogeneity, were subjected to high-throughput x-ray computed tomography (XCT) analysis to enable the downselection of specific processing parameters of interest. Then, using electrical discharge machining (EDM), miniature tensile specimens were extracted for mechanical testing and microscopy investigations. From the analysis performed in FY23, it was found that powder composition drastically affects the resulting microstructure and mechanical performance of 316SS. Specifically, changing from 316L to 316HSS powder results in a wide range of grain sizes with varying degrees of preferred grain orientation, which increases as a function of energy density. It was also found that due to stored heat in thin fin–type features, large microstructural differences can be seen within one part printed with one set of processing parameters. These variations in microstructure features, including grain size, the nanoscale dislocation structure, and grain texture, will all affect the irradiation performance and high-temperature mechanical performance of LPBF 316HSS parts. Two sets of concept laser processing parameters, spanning both refined and columnar grain structures, were scaled to print larger 316H builds for campaign testing (high-temperature creep and irradiation). In addition, at least two optimized processing parameter sets were identified for the Renishaw AM400 for round-robin testing in FY24 with Argonne National Laboratory. Future work includes printing samples using identical parameters identified by partner institutions, providing material for corrosion and high-temperature mechanical testing, and continuing evaluations of heterogeneity in larger printed parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-Driven Optimization of the Processing Window for 316H Components Fabricated Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program is focused on accelerating the development and deployment of advanced materials and components fabricated via additive manufacturing with a specific focus on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). As an initial case study, the program has selected 316H stainless steel (SS) as an initial material around which to develop a code case development strategy. This strategy involves two parallel approaches: (1) an equivalency approach whereby round-robin testing across multiple collaborating laboratories demonstrates repeatability in processing and direct comparisons with conventional wrought 316H material and (2) a revolutionary approach to code qualification combining in situ data collection and high-fidelity modeling to capture, predict, and bound the performance of LPBF 316HSS components. As part of this campaign, this work package has initiated an extensive process optimization campaign across three laboratories, each printing variations of LPBF 316HSS using three different LPBF units (Concept Laser, EOS, and Renishaw). In FY23, ORNL has focused on unique experimental designs spanning wide ranges in energy inputs and turning knobs such as scan speed, laser power, hatch spacing, layer thickness, spot size, scan rotation, and more. On the Concept Laser M2, 72 different combinations of processing variables were investigated with duplicate samples and different powder compositions. In total, 252 samples were printed with combined in situ sensing data. A parallel design of experiments was conducted on the Renishaw AM400 with an additional 390 printed specimens for analysis. All 642 miniature specimens, each with unique features included in each print to capture geometry-related heterogeneity, were subjected to high-throughput x-ray computed tomography (XCT) analysis to enable the downselection of specific processing parameters of interest. Then, using electrical discharge machining (EDM), miniature tensile specimens were extracted for mechanical testing and microscopy investigations. From the analysis performed in FY23, it was found that powder composition drastically affects the resulting microstructure and mechanical performance of 316SS. Specifically, changing from 316L to 316HSS powder results in a wide range of grain sizes with varying degrees of preferred grain orientation, which increases as a function of energy density. It was also found that due to stored heat in thin fin–type features, large microstructural differences can be seen within one part printed with one set of processing parameters. These variations in microstructure features, including grain size, the nanoscale dislocation structure, and grain texture, will all affect the irradiation performance and high-temperature mechanical performance of LPBF 316HSS parts. Two sets of concept laser processing parameters, spanning both refined and columnar grain structures, were scaled to print larger 316H builds for campaign testing (high-temperature creep and irradiation). In addition, at least two optimized processing parameter sets were identified for the Renishaw AM400 for round-robin testing in FY24 with Argonne National Laboratory. Future work includes printing samples using identical parameters identified by partner institutions, providing material for corrosion and high-temperature mechanical testing, and continuing evaluations of heterogeneity in larger printed parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗