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At least 19 records

High Elevation Radiation Array (HERA) detectors for airborne thunderstorm investigations

A high-energy atmospheric physics phenomenon, referred to as a terrestrial gamma ray flash (TGF), is associated with lightning and produces large bursts of energetic photon radiation. TGFs will be investigated using a suite of gamma-ray instruments designed and constructed to fly on ten United States Air Force (USAF) WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft as part of an aircrew ionization study led by the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM), in cooperation with the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (WRS). Each instrument consists of one NaI and one plastic detector, a GPS timing device, and an instrument computer that performs data acquisition. High Elevation Radiation Array (HERA) detectors will be employed to maximize the chances of observing TGFs near their source and to gain a better understanding of their origin, mechanism, ubiquity, and to assess potential hazards posed to military and commercial aircrew and passengers. The HERA program, deployed on 10 separate Air Force aircraft over a multi-year campaign, will result in thousands of observational flight hours and be the largest concerted effort to date to observe TGFs in situ through aircraft observations. In this paper, we give an overview of the scientific goals of this campaign and how the HERA instruments have been designed to meet those goals. Here, we include a detailed description of the HERA instrument, along with mass model and signal processing simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High-energy and ultra-high-energy neutrinos: A Snowmass white paper

Astrophysical neutrinos are excellent probes of astroparticle physics and high-energy physics. With energies far beyond solar, supernovae, atmospheric, and accelerator neutrinos, high-energy and ultra-high-energy neutrinos probe fundamental physics from the TeV scale to the EeV scale and beyond. They are sensitive to physics both within and beyond the Standard Model through their production mechanisms and in their propagation over cosmological distances. They carry unique information about their extreme non-thermal sources by giving insight into regions that are opaque to electromagnetic radiation. Here in this white paper describes the opportunities astrophysical neutrino observations offer for astrophysics and high-energy physics, today and in coming years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Seasonal variations of the atmospheric muon neutrino spectrum measured with IceCube

This study presents an analysis of seasonal variations in the atmospheric muon neutrino flux, using 11.3 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By leveraging a novel spectral unfolding method, we explore the energy range from 125 GeV to 10 TeV for zenith angles from 90° to 110°, corresponding to the Antarctic atmosphere. Our findings reveal that the differential measurement of the amplitudes of the seasonal variation is consistent with an energy-dependent decrease reaching (-4.5 ± 1.2)% during Austral winter and increase to (+ 3.9 ± 1.3)% during Austral summer relative to the annual average at 10 TeV. While the unfolded flux exceeds the model predictions by up to 30%, the differential measurement of the seasonal to annual average flux remains unaffected. The measured seasonal variations of the muon neutrino spectrum are consistent with theoretical predictions using the MCEq code and the NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric model.

Astroparticle Physics and High-Energy Cosmic Pheno↗

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Interactive Gas Chemistry for Enhanced Science Capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3

Atmospheric chemistry plays a crucial role in Earth system models (ESMs), controlling atmospheric composition and radiative balance; it is highly interactive with the physical climate, biogeochemical cycles, and human systems. However, it often imposes computational challenges in an ESM. Here we develop a full troposphere‐stratosphere interactive chemistry module for the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We intentionally build a streamlined module based on E3SM version 2 that interacts with other components and maintains all of major chemical and chemistry‐climate feedbacks. The module incorporates a new, highly efficient tracer advection scheme; linearization of stratospheric chemistry; and abridged tropospheric chemical mechanism with 28 reactive tracers. This new model, E3SM‐chem, can readily perform century‐long climate simulations of ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide based on emission scenarios as well as provide hourly budgets for the gas‐phase radicals that drive aerosol chemistry. We evaluate E3SM‐chem with an atmosphere‐only simulation as in the recent climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) finding results similar to the other CMIP6 models. For the present‐day, E3SM‐chem matches the standard measurement metrics for stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, surface air quality, other key reactive gases like carbon monoxide, and the methane lifetime. Overall, E3SM‐chem maintains the climate fidelity of the baseline model while adding at most 20% to the computational cost of the atmosphere model. Hence, interactive chemistry can be a default configuration for long climate simulations at resolutions of 1° or finer, which is crucial for producing self‐consistent chemistry‐climate feedbacks that alter the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

First detailed calculation of atmospheric neutrino foregrounds to the diffuse supernova neutrino background in Super-Kamiokande

The diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB)—a probe of the core-collapse mechanism and the cosmic star-formation history—has not been detected, but its discovery may be imminent. A significant obstacle for DSNB detection in Super-Kamiokande (Super-K) is detector backgrounds, especially due to atmospheric neutrinos (more precisely, these are foregrounds), which are not sufficiently understood. We perform the first detailed theoretical calculations of these foregrounds in the range 16–90 MeV in detected electron energy, taking into account several physical and detector effects, quantifying uncertainties, and comparing our predictions to the 15.9 live time years of pre-gadolinium data from Super-K stages I–IV. We show that our modeling reasonably reproduces this low-energy data as well as the usual high-energy atmospheric-neutrino data. To accelerate progress on detecting the DSNB, we outline key actions to be taken in future theoretical and experimental work. In a forthcoming paper, we use our modeling to detail how low-energy atmospheric-neutrino events register in Super-K and suggest new cuts to reduce their impact. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Why Does Atmospheric Radiative Heating Weaken Midlatitude Cyclones?

Abstract Recent work has indicated that atmospheric radiative heating reduces the kinetic energy of large‐scale eddies in the midlatitudes. However, a physical mechanism that connects radiation to the midlatitude eddy kinetic energy is still uncertain. Using a high‐resolution general circulation model we perform an experiment in which the radiative cooling profile at each model time step is overwritten with the climatological mean, computed from a control simulation. This approach separates the mean and transient effects of radiative heating on the extratropical circulation. We find that, when radiative heating is fixed, the globally‐averaged eddy kinetic energy is enhanced by ∼6%. We show that thermal radiation dampens temperature anomalies near the surface and tropopause in low‐pressure systems, destroying eddy available potential energy and eddy kinetic energy. We identify this as a possible mechanism by which atmospheric radiative heating weakens midlatitude cyclones.

Mischell, Eric↗

Load‐Balancing Intense Physics Calculations to Embed Regionalized High‐Resolution Cloud Resolving Models in the E3SM and CESM Climate Models

Abstract We design a new strategy to load‐balance high‐intensity sub‐grid atmospheric physics calculations restricted to a small fraction of a global climate simulation's domain. We show why the current parallel load balancing infrastructure of Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Energy Exascale Earth Model (E3SM) cannot efficiently handle this scenario at large core counts. As an example, we study an unusual configuration of the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) that embeds a binary mixture of two separate cloud‐resolving model grid structures that is attractive for low cloud feedback studies. Less than a third of the planet uses high‐resolution (MMF‐HR; sub‐km horizontal grid spacing) relative to standard low‐resolution (MMF‐LR) cloud superparameterization elsewhere. To enable MMF runs with Multi‐Domain cloud resolving models (CRMs), our load balancing theory predicts the most efficient computational scale as a function of the high‐intensity work's relative overhead and its fractional coverage. The scheme successfully maximizes model throughput and minimizes model cost relative to precursor infrastructure, effectively by devoting the vast majority of the processor pool to operate on the few high‐intensity (and rate‐limiting) high‐resolution (HR) grid columns. Two examples prove the concept, showing that minor artifacts can be introduced near the HR/low‐resolution CRM grid transition boundary on idealized aquaplanets, but are minimal in operationally relevant real‐geography settings. As intended, within the high (low) resolution area, our Multi‐Domain CRM simulations exhibit cloud fraction and shortwave reflection convergent to standard baseline tests that use globally homogenous MMF‐LR and MMF‐HR. We suggest this approach can open up a range of creative multi‐resolution climate experiments without requiring unduly large allocations of computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The need to operationalize climate modelling

We report climate models have changed the world. Starting out as simple globally averaged representations of vertical energy exchanges in the atmosphere in the 1950s, today’s climate models are highly complex numerical representations of the Earth system based on the fundamental laws of physics. Their development has largely been driven by scientific curiosity, with the many approximate virtual representations of Earth available today enabling the interrogation of the past and present climate system and the development of an understanding of the influence of human activity on its future. It is this understanding that underpins the climate mitigation targets enshrined in the Paris Agreement to limit global mean temperature increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made to improve NWP forecasts through focused model development, to include experimental refinements to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model physics and horizontal grid spacing. In this study, the performance of an experimental version of HRRR that includes these refinements is tested against a control version, which corresponds to that of the operational HRRR run by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Protection at the outset of WFIP2. Furthermore, the effects of horizontal grid resolution were also tested by comparing wind forecasts from the HRRR (with 3-km grid spacing) with those from a finer-resolution HRRR nest with 750-m grid spacing. Model forecasts are validated against accurate wind-profile measurements by three scanning, pulsed Doppler lidars at sites separated by a total distance of 71 km. Model skill and improvements in model skill, attributable to physics refinements and improved horizontal grid resolution, varied by season, by site, and during periods of atmospheric phenomena relevant to WE. In general, model errors were the largest below 150 m above ground level (AGL). Experimental HRRR refinements tended to reduce the mean absolute error (MAE) and other error metrics for many conditions, but degradation in skill (increased MAE) was noted below 150 m AGL at the two lowest-elevation sites at night. Finer resolution was found to produce the most significant reductions in the error metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Lyα Transit Left Undetected: the Environment and Atmospheric Behavior of K2-25b

K2-25b is a Neptune-sized exoplanet (3.45R {sub ⊕}) that orbits its M4.5 host with a period of 3.48 days. Due to its membership in the Hyades Cluster, the system has a known age (727 ± 75 Myr). K2-25b’s youth and its similarities with Gl 436b suggested that K2-25b could be undergoing strong atmospheric escape. We observed two transits of K2-25b at Lyα using HST/STIS in order to search for escaping neutral hydrogen. We were unable to detect an exospheric signature, but placed an upper limit of (R {sub p}/R {sub ⋆})∣{sub Ly α} < 0.56 at 95% confidence by fitting the light curve of the Lyα red wing, or < 1.20 in the blue wing. We reconstructed the intrinsic Lyα profile of K2-25 to determine its Lyα flux, and analyzed XMM-Newton observations to determined its X-ray flux. Based on the total X-ray and extreme ultraviolet irradiation of the planet (8763 ± 1049 erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2}), we estimated the maximum energy-limited mass-loss rate of K2-25b to be 10.6{sub −6.13}{sup +15.2}×10{sup 10} g s{sup −1} (0.56M {sub ⊕} per 1 Gyr), five times larger than the similarly estimated mass-loss rate of Gl 436b (2.2 × 10{sup 10} g s{sup −1}). The photoionization time is about 3 hr, significantly shorter than Gl 436b’s 14 hr. A nondetection of a Lyα transit could suggest K2-25b is not significantly losing its atmosphere, or factors of the system are resulting in the mass loss being unobservable (e.g., atmosphere composition or the system’s large high-energy flux). Further observations could provide more stringent constraints.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Energetics and mechanisms for the acetonyl radical + O 2 reaction: An important system for atmospheric and combustion chemistry

The acetonyl radical (•CH 2 COCH 3 ) is relevant to atmospheric and combustion chemistry due to its prevalence in many important reaction mechanisms. One such reaction mechanism is the decomposition of Criegee intermediates in the atmosphere that can produce acetonyl radical and OH. In order to understand the fate of the acetonyl radical in these environments and to create more accurate kinetics models, we have examined the reaction system of the acetonyl radical with O 2 using highly reliable theoretical methods. Structures were optimized using coupled cluster theory with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples [CCSD(T)] with an atomic natural orbital (ANO0) basis set. Energetics were computed to chemical accuracy using the focal point approach involving perturbative treatment of quadruple excitations [CCSDT(Q)] and basis sets as large as cc-pV5Z. The addition of O 2 to the acetonyl radical produces the acetonylperoxy radical, and multireference computations on this reaction suggest it to be barrierless. Additionally, no submerged pathways were found for the unimolecular isomerization of the acetonylperoxy radical. Besides dissociation to reactants, the lowest energy pathway available for the acetonylperoxy radical is a 1-5 H shift from the methyl group to the peroxy group through a transition state that is 3.3 kcal mol -1 higher in energy than acetonyl radical + O 2 . The ultimate products from this pathway are the enol tautomer of the acetonyl radical along with O 2 . Multiple pathways that lead to OH formation are considered; however, all of these pathways are predicted to be energetically inaccessible, except at high temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

First Time-Resolved Leader Spectra Associated With a Downward Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flash Detected at the Telescope Array Surface Detector

Optical emissions associated with Terrestrial Gamma ray Flashes (TGFs) have recently become important subjects in space-based and ground-based observations as they can help us understand how TGFs are produced during thunderstorms. In this paper, we present the first time-resolved leader spectra of the optical component associated with a downward TGF. The TGF was observed by the Telescope Array Surface Detector (TASD) simultaneously with other lightning detectors, including a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), an INTerFerometer (INTF), a Fast Antenna (FA), and a spectroscopic system. The spectroscopic system recorded leader spectra at 29,900 frames per second (33.44 μs time resolution), covering a spectral range from 400 to 900 nm, with 2.1 nm per pixel. The recordings of the leader spectra began 11.7 ms before the -18 kA return stroke and at a height of 2.37 km above the ground. These spectra reveal that optical emissions of singly ionized nitrogen and oxygen occur between 167 μs before and 267 μs after the TGF detection, while optical emissions of neutrals (H I, 656 nm; N I, 744 nm, and O I, 777 nm) occur right at the moment of the detection. The time-dependent spectra reveal differences in the optical emissions of lightning leaders with and without downward TGFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Studies with LSST using the Photon Simulator (Final Report)

This grant funded the development and dissemination of the Photon Simulator (PhoSim) for the purpose of studying dark energy at high precision with the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) astronomical survey. The work was in collaboration with the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). Several detailed physics improvements were made in the optics, atmosphere and sensor, a number of validation studies were performed, and a significant number of usability features were implemented. Future work in DESC will use PhoSim as the image simulation tool for data challenges used by the analysis groups.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The role of source geometry and atmospheric propagation in global bolide infrasound detectability

Global infrasound monitoring provides a persistent means of detecting energetic bolide atmospheric entries, complementing optical observations and extending coverage over remote regions. We present a global assessment of the physical factors governing bolide infrasound detectability by correlating 623 bolide events reported by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies between 2007 and 2025 with waveform data from the International Monitoring System. We identify 311 events with confirmed infrasound detections, corresponding to a detection rate of approximately 50%, substantially higher than inferred from earlier surveys, reflecting both the maturation of the global infrasound network and advances in automated, multi-frequency array processing. Analysis of flight parameters shows that infrasound detectability is selective rather than uniform across the bolide population. Detected events are preferentially associated with steeper entry angles and lower-altitude energy deposition, while shallow, high-altitude trajectories are less consistently observed. Very high-energy events remain detectable regardless of geometry, but for the more common lower-energy regime, observability depends on specific combinations of entry parameters and propagation conditions. This geometric dependence persists across comparable energy ranges and atmospheric conditions, indicating that entry angle exerts a primary control on detectability, with energy and propagation acting as secondary modulating factors. Furthermore, these results provide new physical constraints on bolide-atmosphere interactions and improve interpretation of global infrasound observations for planetary defense and atmospheric-entry studies.

Bolides↗