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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Examining Artifacts from GLOBE Program Research Symposia & Using Network Analysis Techniques to Characterize Students’ Authentic STEM Investigations

For the past several years, the GLOBE Program's International Virtual Science Symposia (IVSS) and Student Research Symposia (SRS) have provided opportunities for U.S. and international students to present their Earth science research investigations to the GLOBE community through online or in-person events. This presentation will share the techniques and findings of an evaluation study that used student posters and written reports to characterize their research investigations through multiple lenses and frameworks. The study began with a list of characteristics drawn from a literature review, an analysis of sample projects, and several reviews by expert stakeholders and scientists, which comprehensively covered diverse relevant frameworks including citizen science, student STEM learning through authentic experiences, and The GLOBE Program model. Once applied to 207 student projects, this list of codes revealed the frequency and prevalence of various qualities and experiences represented by GLOBE student research investigations. An innovative application of social network analysis techniques to the coded dataset revealed frequently cooccurring characteristics. This networking approach identified and conceptually mapped several "clusters" of characteristics that typified student projects, empirically based on the submitted projects themselves. The basic quantitative investigation of frequencies indicates the extent to which various characteristics are present in - or absent from - GLOBE SRS and IVSS projects, while the network analysis provides a descriptive framework for typifying projects. Ultimately, the descriptive framework fostered a suite of assessment tools to help The GLOBE Program's staff, scientists, and research project judges understand the diversity of student research projects. GLOBE can use these tools to identify and respond to areas of need; for instance, the descriptive framework illustrates the potential for further education and training resources related to data analysis, interpretation of data, and credibility of scientific claims. This presentation will share the novel utilization of network analysis techniques to holistically assess and react to student research contributions.

Ann Martin↗

Deep Learning-Based Negotiation Strategy Selection for Cooperative Conflict Resolution in Urban Air Mobility

This paper presents a collaborative conflict resolution technique using deep neural network-based intelligent search of the solution space. This approach offers a rapid convergence to a mutually acceptable solution for real-time conflict resolution, suitable for urban air mobility operations. Furthermore, the presented technique allows operational flexibility to the urban air mobility agents where these agents can collaboratively devise the solution via integrative negotiation, based on their local utility functions, as long as such a solution does not violate the global safety thresholds. The presented machine-to-machine negotiation method is built on our prior work on holistic assessment of the airspace and potential conflict detection implemented at-the-edge, onboard the unmanned aircraft systems. This paper extends the prior work to augment decision-making at-the-edge, thereby, promising a true distributed control architecture for urban air mobility. In this approach, each agent (a) builds a potential in-flight conflict map, (b) identifies the conflicting agents, (c) dynamically prepares a list of alternatives based on its current utility functions, (d) negotiates with the conflicting agents to pick one of these alternatives, and (e) implements the negotiated alternative to mutually resolve the conflict. Note that such an approach does not require a contingency plan to be made pre-flight, as the conflict resolution strategies are decided and negotiated in real time based on the present state of the agent. The contingency plan, if available, can serve as an input to the real-time conflict resolution strategy formulation, and also can be used as a fallback plan in case the negotiation fails and the impacted agents need to switch to a rule-based/supervisory resolution mode from the discussed distributed resolution mode. The presented collaborative negotiation-based conflict resolution technique incorporates a time-dependent reward function to catalyze collaborative resolution by incentivizing the agents with local and global rewards beneficial to their business operations.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

Midwest Water Resources II: Evaluating Evapotranspiration with NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Observations to Understand Water Balance in Midwest Agriculture

Seasonal water variability in the midwestern United States extensively affects the agricultural community, as it impacts irrigation schedules, growing seasons, and overall ecosystem function. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical climatic variable in the water cycle and is used to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in drought and flood conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Midwest Climate Hub, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture, the Illinois State Water Survey, and Michigan State University to compare remotely sensed ET products with in situ observations from January 2001 through December 2020. Remotely sensed actual ET (aET) data were sourced from NASA’s Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and reference ET (refET) data were derived from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (gridMET) dataset. For in situ comparison, aET data were downloaded from the AmeriFlux database while refET data were collected from the Illinois Climate Network and Michigan State University’s Enviro-weather database. For a holistic assessment of ET, this project generated comparisons between remotely sensed and in situ observations, calculated descriptive statistics for validation between refET datasets, and spatially produced statistical validation maps regarding in situ sites. The temporal and spatial gaps of AmeriFlux data limited aET analysis. This comparative assessment of ET products across the Midwest can be used by project partners to assess regional water trends and guide future land management decisions.

Addison Pletcher↗

Aggregate Risk Tool for Human Space Flight

This project utilized Data fusion capabilities developed from the 2020-2022 Information Fusion (IFDA) IRAD to enhance functionality of a Human Spaceflight (HSF) Aggregate Risk Product developed by the JSC Flight Safety Office. The tool compiles and presents risk data from multiple Program and Commercial Provider vehicles to provide a holistic assessment of residual risk to Program Managers and Technical Authorities prior to HSF Launches. The aggregation or coupling of risks from multiple sources (Examples: PRA, variances, anomaly data bases, Program Risk Management data bases, technical review board minutes, Hazard Analysis, etc.) when analyzed, identify potential areas of elevated risk in components, systems or mission phases that would otherwise be undetected by nonintegrated program risk management tools and possesses.

Patrick Huckaby↗

Aggregate Risk Tool for Human Space Flight

This tool utilizes Data fusion capabilities developed from the 2020-2022 Information Fusion (IFDA) IRAD to enhance functionality of a Human Spaceflight (HSF) Aggregate Risk Product developed by the JSC Flight Safety Office. The tool compiles and present risk data from multiple Program and Commercial Provider sources to provide a holistic assessment for Program Managers and Technical Authorities to evaluate residual risk prior to HSF Launches. The aggregation, or coupling of risks from multiple sources (Ex: PRA, variances, anomaly data bases, CRM data, technical review board minutes, Hazard Analysis, etc.) identifies areas of elevated risk in components, systems or mission phases that would otherwise be undetected by non-integrated program risk management tools and possesses. Data is then displayed in an interactive user interface/dashboard that enables users to see potential areas of concern requiring more in-depth analysis.

Patrick M Huckaby↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

Roughness Based Crossflow Transition Control for a Swept Airfoil Design Relevant to Subsonic Transports

A high fidelity transition prediction methodology has been applied to a swept airfoil design at a Mach number of 0.75 and chord Reynolds number of approximately 17 million, with the dual goal of an assessment of the design for the implementation and testing of roughness based crossflow transition control and continued maturation of such methodology in the context of realistic aerodynamic configurations. Roughness based transition control involves controlled seeding of suitable, subdominant crossflow modes in order to weaken the growth of naturally occurring, linearly more unstable instability modes via a nonlinear modification of the mean boundary layer profiles. Therefore, a synthesis of receptivity, linear and nonlinear growth of crossflow disturbances, and high-frequency secondary instabilities becomes desirable to model this form of control. Because experimental data is currently unavailable for passive crossflow transition control for such high Reynolds number configurations, a holistic computational approach is used to assess the feasibility of roughness based control methodology. Potential challenges inherent to this control application as well as associated difficulties in modeling this form of control in a computational setting are highlighted. At high Reynolds numbers, a broad spectrum of stationary crossflow disturbances amplify and, while it may be possible to control a specific target mode using Discrete Roughness Elements (DREs), nonlinear interaction between the control and target modes may yield strong amplification of the difference mode that could have an adverse impact on the transition delay using spanwise periodic roughness elements.

Li, Fei↗

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

NASA System Safety Handbook: System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation - Volume 1

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗

A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

reliability analysis↗

Warming, Increase in Precipitation, and Irrigation Enhance Greening in High Mountain Asia

High-Mountain Asia (HMA) exhibits one of the highest increases in vegetation greenness on Earth, subsequently influencing the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Given the strong interactions between the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the cryosphere, understanding the drivers of greening in this highly complex region with significant land cover heterogeneity is essential to assess the changes in the regional water budget. Here we perform a holistic multivariate remote sensing analysis to simultaneously examine the primary components of the terrestrial water cycle from 2003 to 2020 and decipher the principal drivers of greening in HMA. We identified three drivers of greening: (1) precipitation drives greening in mid and low elevation areas covered by evergreen and mixed forests (e.g., Irrawaddy basin), (2) decreases in snow enhance greening in most of the hydrologic basins, and (3) irrigation induces greening in irrigated lands (Ganges-Brahmaputra and Indus).

Fadji Zaouna Maina↗

Comparison of A-SMGCS Requirements with Observed Performance of an Integrated Airport CNS System

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recently drafted a reference document describing the operational requirements for Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems (A-SMGCS). During the summer of 1997, NASA, the FAA, industry, and academia partners demonstrated a holistic system approach that has the potential to meet many of the proposed A-SMGCS requirements. An assessment of the field tested system and data resulting from the field testing is presented to determine its compliance with A-SMGCS requirements. In those areas where compliance was not demonstrated, a recommendation is presented suggesting further research or a modification of the system architecture.

Young, Steven D.↗

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗

A New Paradigm for Quality Metrics

SMA metrics have been traditionally represented as either leading and lagging indicators. Traditional ways of viewing these metrics and trending the data is via graphs which reflect one attribute in each graph. The KSC Independent Assessment Team developed a non-traditional method for expressing variation as a ratio (the deviation between the Expected and Actual). This method allows different measures to be plotted on the same graph for trending and comparison to provide a holistic view across a particular theme or discipline. Since all measurements are a ratio of variation and dimensionless, this variation-based metrics approach can be used a new analytical tool which is complimentary to existing value-added metrics tools.

Dimensionless↗

Fuel cell environmental life cycle assessment : a progress report

Energy generation using fuel cells offers the possibility of high conversion efficiency and reduced pollution. Thus, in the futue, conventional methods of energy generation using coalfired power plants, natural gas turbines and internal combustion engines can potentially be replaced by fuel cells. The United States, Japan and several countries in Europe are currently developing fuel cells for transportation, distributed energy generation and portable electronics applications. On a system basis, the efficiency of chemical to electrical energy conversion in fuel cells can be as high as 45%. Also, because of the lower operating temperatures compared to turbines and internal combustion engines, emissions such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides are extremely small. An assessment of the environmental impact of fuel cells over the entire lifecycle is needed to determine the specific benefits in various application scenarios. Such a comparative pollutants assessment must include a "cradle to grave" approach encompassing fuel production, fuel transportation, materials/manufacturing processes, waste management, and recycling. A comparative pollutant model would be a useful tool for industry and government in estimating energy savings and environmental credits, and providing a holistic understanding on regulatory needs. Another important benefit would be the ability to make appropriate comparisons with competitive energy generation technologies such as hybrids, turbines, and internal combustion engines, and to set up realistic targets. Also, exercising the model will assist in the initial screening for potential hot spots and showstoppers and focus on the right component technologies design for manufacturing, designs for input substitution and waste minimization, and prevent any unforeseen burdens.

Narayanan, S. R.↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

System-of-Systems Tools for the Analysis of Technological Choices in Space Propulsion

Difficulties in space mission architecture design arise from many factors. Performance, cost, and risk constraints become less obvious due to complex interactions between the systems involved in the mission; decisions regarding long-term goals can heavily impact technological choices for short-term parts of the mission, while conversely decisions in the near future will impact the whole flexibility of long-term plans. Furthermore, the space community is broadening its borders, and space agencies from different countries are collaborating with industry and commercial partners towards large-scale endeavors. This paradigm shift is prompting the development of non-traditional approaches to the design of space missions. This paper reports the results of the first year of a continuing collaboration of the authors to develop and demonstrate System-of-System engineering methodologies for the deep analysis of dependencies and synthesis of robust architectures in exploration mission contexts. We present the procedure that we followed to develop and apply our methodology, obstacles found, steps taken to improve the methods based on the needs of experts and decision makers, required data for the analysis, and results produced by our holistic analysis. In particular, we focus on the analysis of technological choices for space propulsion for a generic cislunar mission, including both complex interactions between subsystems in different type of propulsion and availability of different providers. We identify critical systems and sets of systems based on cascading effects of performance degradation, assessment of the robustness of different designs in the operational domain, and simultaneous analysis of schedule dependencies between the constituent systems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗