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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of short-interval reburns in the boreal forest on soil bacterial communities compared to long-interval reburns

Abstract Increasing fire frequency in some biomes is leading to fires burning in close succession, triggering rapid vegetation change and altering soil properties. We studied the effects of short-interval (SI) reburns on soil bacterial communities of the boreal forest of northwestern Canada using paired sites (n = 44). Both sites in each pair had burned in a recent fire; one site had burned within the previous 20 years before the recent fire (SI reburn) and the other had not. Paired sites were closely matched in prefire ecosite characteristics, prefire tree species composition, and stand structure. We hypothesized that there would be a significant effect of short vs. long fire-free intervals on community composition and that richness would not be consistently different between paired sites. We found that Blastococcus sp. was consistently enriched in SI reburns, indicating its role as a strongly ‘pyrophilous’ bacterium. Caballeronia sordidicola was consistently depleted in SI reburns. The depletion of this endophytic diazotroph raises questions about whether this is contributing to—or merely reflects—poor conifer seedling recolonization post-fire at SI reburns. While SI reburns had no significant effect on richness, dissimilarity between short- and long-interval pairs was significantly correlated with difference in soil pH, and there were small significant changes in overall community composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling interval trendlines: Symbolic singular spectrum analysis for interval time series

Abstract In this article we propose an extension of singular spectrum analysis for interval‐valued time series. The proposed methods can be used to decompose and forecast the dynamics governing a set‐valued stochastic process. The resulting components on which the interval time series is decomposed can be understood as interval trendlines, cycles, or noise. Forecasting can be conducted through a linear recurrent method, and we devised generalizations of the decomposition method for the multivariate setting. The performance of the proposed methods is showcased in a simulation study. We apply the proposed methods so to track the dynamics governing the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) in real time, in a case study over a period of turbulence that led to discussions of the government of Argentina with the International Monetary Fund.

de Carvalho, Miguel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2018

The influence of interval arithmetic on the shape of uncertainly defined domains modelled by closed curves

The paper presents an unambiguous modelling of imprecisely defined shapes of closed curves using classical and directed interval arithmetic. The authors focus on the development of an effective strategy of modelling interval smooth closed curves (which enforce C{sup 2} continuity in points at which adjacent interval segments join) using interval cubic Bézier segments. For this purpose, algebraic relationships between Bézier and de Boor control points, formerly known for precisely defined curves, are generalized. We obtain interval control points that define interval closed curves. Additionally, the reliability of such way of modelling of closed curves is examined. We directly apply classical and directed interval arithmetic to mentioned relationships and try to solve obtained interval systems of algebraic equations. However, we obtain ambiguous solutions. Therefore, we propose our new strategy of modification of directed interval arithmetic to obtain reliable and unambiguous shapes of interval closed curves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Specification Surveillance Interval Extension Using Self-Diagnostics

As part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, an ongoing research effort is being conducted on technical specifications surveillance interval extension of digital equipment in nuclear power plants. The research team is led by Idaho National Laboratory and includes Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Technology Resources, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This research focuses on developing methods for applying the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)–approved guidance to implement a licensee-controlled, risk-informed surveillance frequency change program in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems that include self-diagnostics and online monitoring (OLM) capabilities. Although approved methods exist for extending technical specifications (TS) surveillance test intervals (STIs) for general equipment, including analog I&C equipment, gaps remain in technology and guidance on crediting newer digital equipment’s internal self-diagnostics and OLM characteristics. Previous research described a general methodology for crediting internal self-diagnostics for extending surveillance test intervals. The methodology used self-diagnostics to detect—and credited recovery from—failure. Self-diagnostics were also applied for performance monitoring during the extended surveillance interval. This report discusses the status of recent activities to evaluate the previously developed methodology using a pilot study. Although both a utility partner for a pilot study and a specific digital asset were identified in FY2020, delays in obtaining proprietary information resulted in a limited ability to fully evaluate the methodology, and further interactions were complicated by the COVID pandemic. Therefore, at that time, the use of public-domain information—along with current processes for surveillance interval extension through a surveillance frequency control program—identified the need to fully assess diagnostic coverage as part of the pilot study. Furthermore, self-diagnostics were also identified as a potential option to replace the drift analyses conducted as part of current STI extension procedures. In FY2022, the project was reconstituted with the industry partner, and information and data were made available by the industry partner to the research team for review. The shared information included failure event descriptions and data for a digital I&C system since its implementation, as well as recent STI extension interval reports developed by the utility partner on that digital I&C system. This report presents an evaluation of this information and data and describes an application of the proposed methodology cited above. The methodology seeks to take advantage of the self-diagnostics and OLM capabilities to reduce risk or reduce the level of qualitative monitoring assessment needed to perform a risk-informed STI extension using existing NRC approved guidance or both. Addressing these issues of STI extension by crediting self-diagnostics is likely to result in benefits for current and future nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, including lowering the barriers to adoption of digital I&C systems and increasing cost savings by deferring or eliminating unneeded preventive maintenance (tasks or checks or activities). Specifically, self-diagnostic and OLM capabilities of newer digital equipment being installed in non-safety and safety applications are designed to detect failures, provide early warning of potential failures, and notify plant operators to take appropriate action to reduce out of service (OOS) time thus protecting safety margins. Moreover, the equipment is expected to provide information that time-related operational degradation is identified early to ensure timely and planned corrective actions instead of a reactive and unplanned approach ahead of an extended-surveillance interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wabash CarbonSAFE. Geologic Analysis of the Potosi Dolomite Reservoir Interval and Potential Confining Units, at the Wabash #1 Well, Vigo Co., Indiana, Subtask 7.2, Technical Report

The Wabash CarbonSAFE project drilled the Wabash #1 stratigraphic test well (ID# 168045) at the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) IGCC facility in Vigo County, Indiana, to evaluate the feasibility of commercial-scale CO 2 storage near the site. The Mt. Simon Sandstone was the initial target for storage evaluation and was found to have generally poor reservoir qualities in the Wabash #1 well. Focus was then placed on the secondary target, the Potosi Dolomite. For storage and containment evaluation an extensive suite of geophysical logs was collected throughout the borehole, and whole cores were obtained from the Mt. Simon Sandstone, Eau Claire Formation, and Maquoketa Group. The Maquoketa Group is identified as a regionally extensive secondary sealing interval above the Mt. Simon Sandstone and as a primary seal for the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. Due to concerns over potential lost circulation zones in the Potosi Dolomite during drilling, no core samples or Formation Micro Imager (FMI) logs were acquired in the Potosi Dolomite. However, cased hole well testing was performed over a 20 feet (6 m) interval within the Potosi Dolomite during which a fluid swab sample was obtained. Approximately 35 miles of 2D seismic information was acquired in the project area near Wabash #1 to aid in reservoir and caprock characterization. The highly porous and permeable zones in the Potosi Dolomite and lower Oneota Dolomite observed within the Wabash #1 well are, for the purpose of this report, considered the same reservoir package and referred to as the Potosi reservoir interval. This report presents a regional depositional context for the Potosi reservoir interval, the overlying confining zones in the Knox Group, and Maquoketa Group primary seal. This context is developed through detailed information obtained from the Wabash #1 well such as lithologic data collected from cuttings and core, geophysical logging, geomechanical analysis of core samples, and well testing and fluid sampling within the Potosi reservoir interval. Information discussed in this report was compiled as a basis for the development of static and dynamic geologic models of the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. The static and dynamic modeling of CO 2 injection in the Potosi reservoir interval are discussed in a separate report (Dessenberger et al., 2022) under the Wabash CarbonSAFE project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dimension of Restricted Classes of Interval Orders

Rabinovitch showed in 1978 that the interval orders having a representation consisting of only closed unit intervals have order dimension at most 3. Herein, this article shows that the same dimension bound applies to two other classes of posets: those having a representation consisting of unit intervals (but with a mixture of open and closed intervals allowed) and those having a representation consisting of closed intervals with lengths in {0,1}.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calculation of narrower confidence intervals for tree mortality rates when we know nothing but the location of the death/survival events

Abstract Many ecological applications, like the study of mortality rates, require the estimation of proportions and confidence intervals for them. The traditional way of doing this applies the binomial distribution, which describes the outcome of a series of Bernoulli trials. This distribution assumes that observations are independent and the probability of success is the same for all the individual observations. Both assumptions are obviously false in many cases. I show how to apply bootstrap and the Poisson binomial distribution (a generalization of the binomial distribution) to the estimation of proportions. Any information at the individual level would result in better (narrower) confidence intervals around the estimation of proportions. As a case study, I applied this method to the calculation of mortality rates in a forest plot of tropical trees in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia. I calculated central estimates and 95% confidence intervals for species‐level mortality rates for 1,007 tree species. I used a very simple model of spatial dependence in survival to estimate individual‐level risk of mortality. The results obtained by accounting for heterogeneity in individual‐level risk of mortality were comparable to those obtained with the binomial distribution in terms of central estimates, but the precision increased in virtually all cases, with an average reduction in the width of the confidence interval of ~20%. Spatial information allows the estimation of individual‐level probabilities of survival, and this increases the precision in the estimates of mortality rates. The general method described here, with modifications, could be applied to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of proportions related to any spatially structured phenomenon with two possible outcomes. More sophisticated approaches can yield better estimates of individual‐level mortality and thus narrower confidence intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incremental Interval Assignment by Integer Linear Algebra with Improvements

Interval Assignment (IA) is the problem of selecting the number of mesh edges (intervals) for each curve for conforming quad and hex meshing. The intervals x is fundamentally integer-valued. Many other approaches perform numerical optimization then convert a floating-point solution into an integer solution, which is slow and error prone. We avoid such steps: we start integer, and stay integer. Incremental Interval Assignment (IIA) uses integer linear algebra (Hermite normal form) to find an initial solution to the meshing constraints, satisfying the integer matrix equation Solving for reduced row echelon form provides integer vectors spanning the nullspace of A. Here we add vectors from the nullspace to improve the initial solution, maintaining Ax = b Heuristics find good integer linear combinations of nullspace vectors that provide strict improvement towards variable bounds or goals. IIA always produces an integer solution if one exists. In practice we usually achieve solutions close to the user goals, but there is no guarantee that the solution is optimal, nor even satisfies variable bounds, e.g. has positive intervals. We describe several algorithmic changes since first publication that tend to improve the final solution. The software is freely available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Dispatch With Secondary Frequency Regulation: A Pathway to Consider Intra-Interval Fluctuations

Real-time dispatch balances the power demand with minimized operating costs. For the current dispatch model, the demand is assumed to be constant within a time interval, while the intra-interval power balance is left to frequency regulation. Based on practical experience and simulations, this behavior may lead to insufficient frequency regulation and uneconomic regulation costs considering the increase in intra-interval fluctuations caused by renewables. Here, a real-time dispatch method with secondary frequency regulation behaviors is proposed. Without changing the interval of the real-time dispatch command, the system regulation mileage and intra-interval generation adjustment are explicitly formulated in a mixed-integer optimization model. To reduce the computational burden, an efficient two-stage calculation method is proposed. With practical utility data, this article finds that the proposed method can effectively improve the system frequency performance with the subminute net load forecasting curve obtained by an off-the-shelf forecasting approach. Time-domain simulations in IEEE and practical utility systems validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of the frequency performance and total operating costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Association Between Dispatch Complaint and Critical Prehospital Time Intervals in Suspected Stroke 911 Activations in the National Emergency Medical Services Information System, 2012–2016

Emergency Medical Services can help improve stroke outcomes by recognizing stroke symptoms, establishing response priority for 911 calls, and minimizing prehospital delays. This study examines 911 stroke events and evaluates associations between events dispatched as stroke and critical EMS time intervals. Data from the National Emergency Medical Services Information System, 2012 to 2016, were analyzed. Activations from 911 calls with a primary or secondary provider impression of stroke were included for adult patients transported to a hospital destination. Three prehospital time intervals were evaluated: (1) response time (RT) ≤8 min, (2) on-scene time (OST) ≤15 min, and (3) transport time (TT) ≤12 min. Associations between stroke dispatch complaint and prehospital time intervals were assessed using multivariate regression to estimate adjusted risk ratios (ARR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Approximately 37% of stroke dispatch complaints were identified by EMS as a suspected stroke. Compared to stroke events without a stroke dispatch complaint, median OST was shorter for events with a stroke dispatch (16 min vs. 14 min, respectively). In adjusted analyses, events dispatched as stroke were more likely to meet the EMS time benchmark for OST ≤15 min (OST, 1.20 [1.20–1.21]), but not RT or TT (RT, [1.00–1.01]; TT, 0.95 [0.94–0.95]). Furthermore, our results indicate that dispatcher recognition of stroke symptoms reduces the time spent on-scene by EMS personnel. These findings can inform future EMS stroke education and quality improvement efforts to emphasize dispatcher recognition of stroke signs and symptoms, as EMS dispatchers play a crucial role in optimizing the prehospital response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗
DOE OSTI2026

Burst delay line for generating ultrashort pulse bursts with interval tunability from femtoseconds to nanoseconds.

Ultrashort burst laser pulses are important for applications in laser processing and spectroscopy. However, existing burst generators face limitations in pulse time interval tunability and coaxiality. Here, we present a burst pulse generator that delivers coaxial ultrashort pulses with tunable pulse time intervals using a single translation stage. The constructed system produced eight femtosecond pulses with uniform intervals tunable from 100 fs to 1.93 ns, equivalent to burst-internal repetition rates spanning 10 THz to 0.52 GHz. We further demonstrated interval-dependent plasma emission in air filamentation, providing a compact platform to study burst-laser-induced phenomena.

Shimada, Keitaro↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Suspect Instrument Intervals Using Midnight Noise Time Histories

With an intense work ethic, and high levels of devotion to their craft, seismologists continue to battle the elements and wrestle with complex logistics in their efforts to field instrumentation over the entire globe. We are fortunate to see data volumes accelerating in size, and quality continuing to improve; for example, universal timing issues can now be considered rare. However, instrument response issues are still common, and can hinder research that seeks to understand amplitudes of seismic wavefields. We are interested in using the accumulations of seismic data to develop models that will predict high frequency (0.2-20 Hz, and higher) signal amplitudes for explosion monitoring purposes over broad areas, which requires large data sets and extensive quality control. To identify response and station health issues, we have collected noise time histories for global seismic data, focusing on measurements near (but not restricted to) midnight to eliminate diurnal variations, and have manually determined time intervals that appear inconsistent with background behavior. We assign descriptive labels, but do not attempt to diagnose causes. We use these intervals to discard data. To date, we have examined 39,260 channels from 11,105 stations, heavily weighted toward IRIS holdings, dates through 2017 (depending on station, roughly the date we started our manual review), bands between 1 and 8 Hz, finding 24,733 anomalous time intervals. The great majority (90%) of these intervals appear to be shifts of constant offset, often bounded by times of known instrument changes, likely the result of poor documentation of response parameters at one of many stages between the field and the plotter. We hope these results can be of use to our colleagues, and would encourage community efforts to diagnose anomalous behavior, and fix poor responses. We also hope these results will support automation efforts, including application of supervised learning techniques.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bootstrap-based confidence interval estimation for thermal security region of bulk power grid

Thermal security region (TSR) is a powerful tool for monitoring and controlling the thermal security of bulk power grid with high penetration of renewable energy. One of the major challenges of TSR in practical application is to obtain the exact analytical expression of the TSR boundary (TSRB) because TSRB is a nonlinear hypersurface described by an implicit function. For this reason, the TSRB is usually approximated by hyperplane instead of getting the exact analytical expression. Traditionally, the coefficients of the hyperplane are estimated with a set of original TSRB points using least square estimation (LSE). However, LSE is a point estimation method, which is incapable of evaluating the quality of the estimation. In addition, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the hyperplane approximation are influenced by the number of TSRB points significantly. Here, a bootstrap based confidence interval estimation is proposed to estimate not only the coefficients of TSRB approximation hyperplane, but also the standard deviations and confidence intervals of the coefficients for evaluating the quality and reliability of the approximation results. First, empirical distribution functions (EDFs) of the coefficients of TSRB approximation hyperplane are approximated from a set of original TSRB points by using residual resampling bootstrap method. Then, the EDFs of the coefficients are employed to estimate the coefficients of the approximation hyperplane. Meanwhile, the standard deviations and confidence intervals of the estimated coefficients of the hyperplanes are also calculated for evaluating the quality and reliability of the approximation. The proposed approach is tested on the China Southern Power Grid (CSG). Results of simulations validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach in approximating the TSRB.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Using a Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Method with Interval and Fuzzy Parameters

Efficient water allocation is one of the most prominent issues in water resources management. In this research, a two-stage interval-parameter stochastic fuzzy programming with type 2 membership functions was used to allocate water resources optimally to different users under uncertainty. This method can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, discrete intervals, and fuzzy sets. The model considers treated wastewater as an allocable water resource in a scenario, in addition to water that is extracted from wellheads, springs, and qanats. Moreover, the loss rate of water during distribution, surplus water in the reservoir in the previous and the next period, and treated wastewater parameters have been incorporated into the model. This model was applied to a case study of water resources allocation within a multi-user and multi-reservoir context in the Zarand region of Kerman, Iran. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated, in the form of interval and fuzzy information under different scenarios that could help managers provide optimal water resources allocation plans. The results also demonstrate that establishing a wastewater treatment station increases the system net benefits, surplus water in wellheads for the next period, and system reliability (level of satisfying the fuzzy goal and constraints), and decreases encountering water shortages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Some integral inequalities for interval-valued functions

In this paper, we explore some integral inequalities for interval-valued functions. More precisely, using the Kulisch–Miranker order on the space of real and compact intervals, we establish Minkowski’s inequality and then we derive Beckenbach’s inequality via an interval Radon’s inequality. Also, some examples and applications are presented for illustrating our results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗