Warning Time for Long-Period Comets on Earth Impact Trajectories
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Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud
The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital period and generally large distances form the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets..Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.
long-period comets comets comet impact↗
Comparing the Earth Impact Flux from Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids
Long-period comets (LPC), defined here as those active comets with orbital periods greater than 200 years, are the most difficult objects to mitigate should one be found on an Earth threatening trajectory. The arrival of these objects from the distant Oort cloud cannot be predicted and the impact warning time would be measured in a few months - not years. At the distance of Jupiter, an inactive cometary nucleus with a diameter of one kilometer and a geometric albedo equal to 0.04 would have an apparent magnitude fainter than 25 near opposition and, hence would be well outside the detection capability of current NEO search telescopes. In general LPCs do not become active, and hence discoverable, until inside the orbit of Jupiter and it takes but nine months for a LPC to travel the distance from Jupiter's orbit to that of the Earth.Estimating the impact energy for long-period comets is particularly difficult because the sizes and masses of these objects are not well known. Their solid nuclei are hidden from ground-based telescopes by their gas and dust atmospheres and even when nearby spacecraft observations can determine a size and shape for a cometary nucleus, there are no direct determinations of any cometary mass or bulk density to date. However, a variety of indirect bulk density determinations consistently provide values below one gram per cubic centimeter, the value for water. From measurements made by the Deep Impact spacecraft during its encounter with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005, the bulk density was estimated to be 0.6 grams per cubic centimeter. The mean impact velocity of a LPC is about 51 km/s, three times the 17 km/s value for a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA) so the impact energy for an LPC would be 9 times that of a NEA of similar mass. However, the bulk density of a comet (approx. 0.6 g/cu cm) is several times less than the density of a stony NEA (approx. 2.6 g/ cu cm) so for a LPC and a stony NEA of the same size, the LPC's impact energy would be about twice that of the NEA.To properly allocate the limited resources available for NEO surveys and physical characterization, it is important to understand the relative threat from long-period comets versus the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids.
near Earth objects↗
Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud
The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital] periods and generally large distances from the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets. They appear at random, uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Current technologies can detect long-period comets at distances of approx. 5 AU, giving somewhat less than a one year warning time for potential Earth impactors. The mean impact probability for a long-period comet crossing the Earth's orbit is 2.2 to 2.5 x 10(exp -9) per perihelion passage. The mean impact velocity is approximately 52 km sec-1 but the most probable impact energy is characterized by a velocity of 56 to 58 km/sec. The estimated current impact rate for cometary nuclei large enough to create 10 km diameter (or larger) craters on the Earth is between 5 x 10(exp -7) and 2.8 x 10(exp -6) per year, with a bed estimated value of 1.0 x 10(exp -6) per year. Nuclei large enough to initiate global climatic disturbances strike the Earth on average every 16 Myr. The impact frequency may be increased substantially for brief periods of time during cometary showers, initiated by major perturbations of the Oort cloud. Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
Orbit Determination Accuracy for Comets on Earth-Impacting Trajectories
The results presented show the level of orbit determination accuracy obtainable for long-period comets discovered approximately one year before collision with Earth. Preliminary orbits are determined from simulated observations using Gauss' method. Additional measurements are incorporated to improve the solution through the use of a Kalman filter, and include non-gravitational perturbations due to outgassing. Comparisons between observatories in several different circular heliocentric orbits show that observatories in orbits with radii less than 1 AU result in increased orbit determination accuracy for short tracking durations due to increased parallax per unit time. However, an observatory at 1 AU will perform similarly if the tracking duration is increased, and accuracy is significantly improved if additional observatories are positioned at the Sun-Earth Lagrange points L3, L4, or L5. A single observatory at 1 AU capable of both optical and range measurements yields the highest orbit determination accuracy in the shortest amount of time when compared to other systems of observatories.
Kay-Bunnell, Linda↗
Bolide impacts, acid rain, and biospheric traumas at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary
Two plausible projectiles are considered: an ice-rich long-period comet and a much smaller rock-metal asteroid. In the framework of a proposal addressed by Lewis et al. (1982), it is shown that, while the impact projectiles themselves do not shock-heat the atmosphere very extensively, the supersonic plume of water vapor and rock produced on impact does shock the atmosphere up to global scales and the shock is of sufficient intensity to produce abundant nitric oxide. For example, an ice-rich long-period comet with a mass of 1.25 x 10 to the 16th kg and a velocity of 65 km/s striking the earth would produce about 7 x 10 to the 40th molecules NO through shock-heating of the atmosphere by the high-velocity ejecta plume fragments. Specific attention is given to the fraction of the atmosphere shock-heated, the global circulation of the nitrogen oxides, the effects of the ejecta plume water on acid rain (AR) predictions, the effects of AR on continental soils, the relationship between AR production rates and the total amount of acid needed to acidify the surface oceans, and the longevity of the oceanic acidity event and the exhaled CO2 event and their implications for the environment in the first millenia or so after the impact.
Prinn, Ronald G.↗
Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): A Space-Based System Concept for Revolutionizing Earth Protection and Utilization of Near-Earth Objects
There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS is a future spacebased system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This paper provides a summary of CAPS and discusses several key areas and technologies that are being investigated.
Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): Preliminary Space-Based Concept and Study Results
There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) is a future space-based system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This Technical Memorandum provides a compilation of key related topics and analyses performed during the CAPS study, which was performed under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) program, and discusses technologies that could enable the implementation of this future system.
Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA Space Missions to Asteroids: Protecting the Earth from NEO Impacts
There is now a general recognition of the hazard of impacts on Earth by comets and asteroids, but there is yet no consensus concerning international actions that should be taken to protect the planet from such impacts. An essential step in the analysis of the situation involves estimating the relative hazard posed by comets and asteroids of different sizes and orbits. All recent studies agree that the larger impacts pose the greater danger, and that our primary concern from the perspective of total risk should be on impacts that are large enough to cause global ecological catastrophe. These global catastrophes are also of special interest, since they (alone among natural disasters) have the potential to destroy civilization. Studies of the sensitivity of the Earth's environment suggest that the energy threshold energy for causing a global catastrophe is at about 1 million megatons, corresponding to impactor diameters of 1.5 to 2 km. This information leads naturally to a strategy of concentrating on the larger NEOs, say those 1 km or more in diameter. This is the rationale for the Spaceguard Survey, which must be the highest priority in mitigation efforts. The second question concerns the value of developing standing defensive systems that could deflect or destroy an incoming NEO. In the case of the asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter, no such system is needed, since there will be ample time (at least several decades) between the discovery of the threatening object by Spaceguard and the requirement to take action against it. In the case of objects smaller than 1 km diameter, development of defensive systems is not cost-effective; there are many greater dangers to persons and property that are much more urgent. Only in the case of large long-period comets is there a rationale for standing defense systems. The question is also raised whether the risks inherent in developing and maintaining a defense system might be greater than the impact risks it is intended to guard against. These and related issues are the focus of much current international debate on defense of the planet against NEO impacts. Meanwhile, the most critical issue remains the expansion of the telescopic search for NEOs.
Morrison, David↗
The Cretaceous-Tertiary Impact Crater and the Cosmic Projectile that Produced it
Evidence gathered to date from topographic data, geophysical data, well logs, and drill-core samples indicates that the buried Chicxulub basin, the source crater for the approximately 65 Ma Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary deposits, is approximately 300 km in diameter. A prominent topographic ridge and a ring of gravity anomalies mark the position of the basin rim at approximately 150 km from the center. Wells in this region recovered thick sequences of impact-generated breccias at 200-300 m below present sea level. Inside the rim, which has been severely modified by erosion following impact, the subsurface basin continues to deepen until near the center it is approximately 1 km deep. The best planetary analog for this crater appears to be the 270 km-diameter Mead basin on Venus. Seismic reflection data indicate that the central zone of downward displacement and excavation (the transient crater is approximately 130 km in diameter, consistent with previous studies of gravity anomaly data). Our analysis of projectile characteristics utilizes this information, coupled with conventional scaling relationships, and geochemical constraints on the mass of extraterrestrial material deposited within the K/T boundary layer. Results indicate that the Chicxulub crater would most likely be formed by a long-period comet composed primarily of nonsilicate materials (ice, hydrocarbons, etc.) and subordinate amounts (less than or equal to 50 percent) primitive chondritic material. This collision would have released the energy equivalent to between 4 x 10(exp 8) and 4 x 10(exp 9) megatons of TNT. Studies of terrestrial impact rates suggest that such an event would have a mean production rate of approximately 1.25 x 10(exp -9) y(exp -1). This rate is considerably lower than that of the major mass extinctions over the last 250 million years (approximately 5 x 10(exp -7) y(exp -1). Consequently, while there is substantial circumstantial evidence establishing the cause-effect link between the Chicxulub basin forming event and the K/T biological extinctions, the results of our analysis do not support models of impact as a common or singular causative agent of mass extinctions on Earth.
Sharpton, Virgil L.↗
The impactor flux in the Pluto-Charon system
Current impact rates of comets on Pluto and Charon are estimated. It is shown that the dominant sources of impactors are comets from the Kuiper belt and the inner Oort cloud, each of whose perihelion distribution extends across Pluto's orbit. In contrast, long-period comets from the outer Oort cloud are a negligible source of impactors. The total predicted number of craters is not sufficient to saturate the surface areas of either Pluto of Charon over the age of the Solar System. However, heavy cratering may have occurred early in the Solar System's history during clearing of planetesimals from the outer planets' zone.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
Constraining the Ratio of Micrometeoroids from Short- and Long-Period Comets at 1 AU from LADEE Observations of the Lunar Dust Cloud
We interpret recent observations of the secondary dust ejecta cloud around the Moon from the Lunar Dust Experiment (LDEX) on board the NASA Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) spacecraft with help from dynamical models of meteoroids. Results suggest that in order to match the spatial structure of observed ejecta profiles, the flux of meteoroids on the Moon must be primarily provided by short-period comets with an excess ratio of at least 1.3:1 compared to long-period comets. This ratio increases significantly if the dependence of the ejecta yield on impactor velocity is stronger than generally believed. The model accounts for the orbital geometry of LADEE and shows no indication of a large asymmetry in the meteoroid flux impacting from the Helion and Anti-Helion directions.
Janches, Diego↗
The Contemporary Hazard of Cometary Impacts
Cosmic impacts pose a continuing hazard of loss of human life and property. Significant contemporary risk is associated with projectiles in the energy range from about 10 megatons of TNT up to the size of the K/T impactor. The lower threshold for damage is defined by the atmosphere of the Earth, which effectively shields us From smaller projectiles. Up to energies of about a gigaton of TNT, the effects are local or regional for impacts on the land, or coastal for ocean impacts, which can generate large tsunamis. A greater risk is associated with still larger impacts, which are capable of causing global ecological catastrophe, possibly leading to mass mortality From starvation and epidemics. If such a impact took place anywhere on Earth during our lifetimes, we would each be in danger, independent of where the projectile struck. Statistical estimates indicate that each human on this planet runs a risk of roughly 1 in 20,000 of dying from this cause. Prudence suggests that we should be concerned about such impacts and seek ways of avoiding them or mitigating their consequences. The primary objective of any program to deal with this hazard is to determine whether or not such a near-term impact is likely. The best approach for the asteroidal component is a comprehensive telescopic survey, which can discover all Earth-crossing asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter and provide decades of warning in which to plan ways to deflect or destroy a threatening object. Long-period comets, however, pose a much greater challenge, since they cannot be discovered long in advance of a possible impact, their orbits are harder to predict, and they are significantly more difficult to deflect or destroy.
Morrison, David↗
Studies of Transient Meteor Activity
Meteoroids bombard Earth's atmosphere daily, but occasionally meteor rates increase to unusual high levels when Earth crosses the relatively fresh ejecta of comets. These transient events in meteor activity provide clues about the whereabouts of Earth-threatening long-period comets, the mechanisms of large-grain dust ejection from comets, and the particle composition and size distribution of the cometary ejecta. Observations of these transient events provide important insight in natural processes that determine the large grain dust environment of comets, in natural phenomena that were prevalent during the time of the origin of life, and in processes that determine the hazard of civilizations to large impacts and of man-made satellites to the periodic blizzard of small meteoroids. In this proposal, three tasks form a coherent program aimed at elucidating various aspects of meteor outbursts, with special reference to planetary astronomy and astrobiology. Task 1 was a ground-based effort to observe periods of transient meteor activity. This includes: (1) stereoscopic imaging of meteors during transient meteor events for measurements of particle size distribution, meteoroid orbital dispersions and fluxes; and (2) technical support for Global-MS-Net, a network of amateur-operated automatic counting stations for meteor reflections from commercial VHF radio and TV broadcasting stations, keeping a 24h vigil on the level of meteor activity for the detection of new meteor streams. Task 2 consisted of ground-based and satellite born spectroscopic observations of meteors and meteor trains during transient meteor events for measurements of elemental composition, the presence of organic matter in the meteoroids, and products generated by the interaction of the meteoroid with the atmosphere. Task 3 was an airborne effort to explore the 2000 Leonid meteor outbursts, which are anticipated to be the most significant of transient meteor activity events in the remainder of the agreement period. This includes technical support for a multi-instrument aircraft campaign, Leonid MAC.
Jenniskens, Peter M. M.↗
The Meteoroid Fluence at Mars Due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)
Long-period comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will experience a close encounter with Mars on 2014 Oct 19. A collision between the comet and the planet has been ruled out, but the comet's coma may envelop Mars and its man-made satellites. By the time of the close encounter, five operational spacecraft will be present near Mars. Characterizing the coma is crucial for assessing the risk posed to these satellites by meteoroid impacts. We present an analytic model of cometary comae that describes the spatial and size distributions of cometary dust and meteoroids. This model correctly reproduces, to within an order of magnitude, the number of impacts recorded by Giotto near 1P/Halley [1] and by Stardust near comet 81P/Wild 2 [2]. Applied to Siding Spring, our model predicts a total particle fluence near Mars of 0.02 particles per square meter. In order to determine the degree to which Siding Spring's coma deviates from a sphere, we perform numerical simulations which take into account both gravitational effects and radiative forces. We take the entire dust component of the coma and tail continuum into account by simulating the ejection and evolution of dust particles from comet Siding Spring. The total number of particles simulated is essentially a free parameter and does not provide a check on the total fluence. Instead, these simulations illustrate the degree to which the coma of Siding Spring deviates from the perfect sphere described by our analytic model (see Figure). We conclude that our analytic model sacrifices less than an order of magnitude in accuracy by neglecting particle dynamics and radiation pressure and is thus adequate for order-of-magnitude fluence estimates. Comet properties may change unpredictably and therefore an analytic coma model that enables quick recalculation of the meteoroid fluence is highly desirable. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office is monitoring comet Siding Spring and taking measurements of cometary brightness and dust production. We will discuss our coma model and nominal fluence taking the latest observations into account.
Moorhead, A.↗
The cometary and asteroidal impactor flux at the earth
The cratering records on the Earth and the lunar maria provide upper limits on the total impactor flux at the Earth's orbit over the past 600 Myr and the past 3.3 Gyr, respectively. These limits can be compared with estimates of the expected cratering rate from observed comets and asteroids in Earth-crossing orbits, corrected for observational selection effects and incompleteness, and including expected temporal variations in the impactor flux. Both estimates can also be used to calculate the probability of large impacts which may result in biological extinction events on the Earth. The estimated cratering rate on the Earth for craters greater than 10 km-diameter, based on counted craters on dated surfaces is 2.2 + or - 1.1 x 10 to the minus 14th power km(-2) yr(-1) (Shoemaker et al., 1979). Using a revised mass distribution for cometary nuclei based on the results of the spacecraft flybys of Comet Halley in 1986, and other refinements in the estimate of the cometary flux in the terrestrial planets zone, it is now estimated that long-period comets account for 11 percent of the cratering on the Earth (scaled to the estimate above), and short-period comets account for 4 pct (Weissman, 1987). However, the greatest contribution is from large but infrequent, random cometary showers, accounting for 22 pct of the terrestrial cratering.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
Close encounters and collisions of comets with the earth
A computer search for earth-approaching comets among those listed in Marsden's (1983) updated orbit catalog has identified 36 cases at which minimum separation distance was less than 2500 earth radii. A strong representation of short period comets in the sample is noted, and the constant rate of the close approaching comets in the last 300 years is interpreted to suggest the lack of long-period comets intrinsically fainter than an absolute magnitude of about 11. A comet-earth collision rate derived from the statistics of these close encounters implies an average period of 33-64 million years between any two events. This rate is comparable with the frequency of geologically recent global catastrophes which appear to be associated with extraterrestrial object impacts, such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction 65 million years ago and the late Eocene event 34 million years ago.
Sekanina, Z.↗
The Uncertain Nature of Cometary Motions
The number of active short- and long-periodic comets crossing the Earth's orbit each year is less than 10 percent of the corresponding number of asteroids crossing the Earth's orbit. However, the higher relative velocities of comets with respect to the Earth and the uncertainties associated with accurately computing their future trajectories can cause considerable problems when assessing the risks of Earth-crossing objects. Unlike asteroids, the motions of active comets are often affected by so-called nongravitational (outgassing) forces that are imperfectly modeled. In addition, the astrometric optical observations that are used to refine a comet's orbit are often imprecise because a comet's center of mass can be hidden by atmospheric gas and dust. For long-period comets, there is the additional problem of having to base orbital solutions on relatively short observational data intervals. Long-term numerical integrations extending two centuries into the future have been carried out to investigate upcoming Earth-close approaches by known periodic comets. Error analyses and impact probabilities have been computed for those comets that will pass closest to the Earth. Although there are no known comets that will make dangerously close Earth approaches in the next two centuries, there are a few objects that warrant future monitoring.
Yeomans, Donald K.↗