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At least 19 records

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging Groundwater Dynamics to Improve Predictions of Summer Low-Flow Discharges

Summer streamflow predictions are critical for managing water resources; however, warming-induced shifts from snow to rain regimes impact low-flow predictive models. Additionally, reductions in snowpack drive earlier peak flows and lower summer flows across the western United States increasing reliance on groundwater for maintaining summer streamflow. However, it remains poorly understood how groundwater contributions vary interannually. Here, we quantify recession limb groundwater (RLGW), defined as the proportional groundwater contribution to the stream during the period between peak stream flow and low flow, to predict summer low flows across three diverse western US watersheds. We ask (a) how do snow and rain dynamics influence interannual variations of RLGW contributions and summer low flows?; (b) which watershed attributes impact the effectiveness of RLGW as a predictor of summer low flows? Linear models reveal that RLGW is a strong predictor of low flows across all sites and drastically improves low-flow prediction compared to snow metrics at a rain-dominated site. Results suggest that strength of RLGW control on summer low flows may be mediated by subsurface storage. Subsurface storage can be divided into dynamic (i.e., variability saturated) and deep (i.e., permanently saturated) components, and we hypothesize that interannual variability in dynamic storage contribution to streamflow drives RLGW variability. In systems with a higher proportion of dynamic storage, RLGW is a better predictor of summer low flow because the stream is more responsive to dynamic storage contributions compared to deep-storage-dominated systems. Overall, including RLGW improved low-flow prediction across diverse watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling

Recent advances in differentiable modeling, a genre of physics-informed machine learning that trains neural networks (NNs) together with process-based equations, have shown promise in enhancing hydrological models' accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge-discovery potential. Current differentiable models are efficient for NN-based parameter regionalization, but the simple explicit numerical schemes paired with sequential calculations (operator splitting) can incur numerical errors whose impacts on models' representation power and learned parameters are not clear. Implicit schemes, however, cannot rely on automatic differentiation to calculate gradients due to potential issues of gradient vanishing and memory demand. Here we propose a “discretize-then-optimize” adjoint method to enable differentiable implicit numerical schemes for the first time for large-scale hydrological modeling. The adjoint model demonstrates comprehensively improved performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficients, peak-flow and low-flow metrics, and evapotranspiration that moderately surpass the already-competitive explicit model. Therefore, the previous sequential-calculation approach had a detrimental impact on the model's ability to represent hydrological dynamics. Furthermore, with a structural update that describes capillary rise, the adjoint model can better describe baseflow in arid regions and also produce low flows that outperform even pure machine learning methods such as long short-term memory networks. The adjoint model rectified some parameter distortions but did not alter spatial parameter distributions, demonstrating the robustness of regionalized parameterization. Despite higher computational expenses and modest improvements, the adjoint model's success removes the barrier for complex implicit schemes to enrich differentiable modeling in hydrology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Force and Pressure-Distribution Measurements on a Rectangular Wing with Double-Hinged Nose

The previous measurements on airfoils with hinged nose disclosed a comparatively large low-pressure peak at the bend of the hinged nose; which favored the separation of flow. It was therefore attempted to reduce these low-pressure peaks by reducing the camber of the forward profile and thereby ensure a longer adherence of the flow and a maximum lift increase. The forces were measured on a rectangular wing with double-hinged nose and end plates, the pressure distributions were measured in the center section of the wing. The measurements disclosed that the highest lift attained with a single-hinged nose cannot be increased by a double-hinged nose. The sum of the deflection angles of both hinged noses related to the maximum lift is about equal to the corresponding angle of the single-hinge nose (approx. 30 deg to 40). The respective angle of attack in both cases amounts to approx. 21 deg. Even the low-pressure peak is about the same in both cases (P/q approx. -5.5). Therefore, a milder curvature of the forward portion of the profile affords no definite increase of the maximum lift.

Lemme, H. A.↗

The effects of leading-edge serrations on reducing flow unsteadiness about airfoils.

High frequency surface pressure measurements were obtained from wind-tunnel tests over the Reynolds number range 1.2 x 1,000,000 to 6.2 x 1,000,000 on a rectangular wing of NACA 63-009 airfoil section. A wide selection of leading-edge serrations were also added to the basic airfoil. Under a two-dimensional laminar bubble very close to the leading edge of the basic airfoil there is a large peak in rms pressure, which is interpreted as an oscillation in size and position of the bubble. The serrations divide the bubble into segments and reduce the peak rms pressures. A low Reynolds number flow visualization test on a hydrofoil in water was also conducted. A von Karman vortex street was found trailing from the rear of the foil. Its frequency is at a much lower Strouhal number than in the high Reynolds number experiment, and is related mathematically to the airfoil trailing-edge and boundary-layer thicknesses.

Schwind, R. G.↗

The effects of leading-edge serrations on reducing flow unsteadiness about airfoils, an experimental and analytical investigation

High frequency surface pressure measurements were obtained from wind-tunnel tests over the Reynolds number range 1.2 times one million to 6.2 times one million on a rectangular wing of NACA 63-009 airfoil section. Measurements were also obtained with a wide selection of leading-edge serrations added to the basic airfoil. Under a two-dimensional laminar bubble very close to the leading edge of the basic airfoil there is a large apatial peak in rms pressure. Frequency analysis of the pressure signals in this region show a large, high-frequency energy peak which is interpreted as an oscillation in size and position of the bubble. The serrations divide the bubble into segments and reduce the peak rms pressures. A low Reynolds number flow visualization test on a hydrofoil in water was also conducted. A von Karman vortex street was found trailing from the rear of the foil. Its frequency is at a much lower Strouhal number than in the high Reynolds number experiment, and is related to the trailing-edge and boundary-layer thicknesses.

Schwind, R. G.↗

A new hydrodynamic prediction of the peak heat flux from horizontal cylinders in low speed upflow

Flow-boiling data have been obtained for horizontal cylinders in saturated acetone, isopropanol, and water, yielding heat flux vs. wall superheat boiling curves for the organic liquids. A region of low speed upflow is identified in which long cylindrical bubbles break off from the wake with regular frequency. The Strouhal number of bubble breakoff is a function only of the Froude number in any liquid, and the effective wake thickness in all liquids is a function of the density ratio and the Froude number. A low speed flow boiling burnout prediction procedure is presented which yields accurate results in widely dissimilar liquids.

Ungar, E. K.↗

The concentration of the large-scale solar magnetic field by a meridional surface flow

Analytical and numerical solutions to the magnetic flux transport equation in the absence of new bipolar sources of flux are calculated for several meridional flow profiles and a range of peak flow speeds. It is found that a poleward flow with a broad profile and a nominal 10 m/s maximum speed concentrates the large-scale field into very small caps of less than 15 deg half-angle, with average field strengths of several tens of gauss, contrary to observations. A flow which reaches its peak speed at a relatively low latitude and then decreases rapidly to zero at higher latitudes leads to a large-scale field pattern which is consistent with observations. For such a flow, only lower latitude sunspot groups can contribute to interhemispheric flux annihilation and the resulting decay and reversal of the polar magnetic fields.

Devore, C. R.↗

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

An evaluation of turbulence models for massively blown surfaces

In this study, an evaluation of the various turbulence models for massively blown as well as unblown viscous shock layers has been made. The direct impact of the variations introduced through the different turbulent models has been evaluated by employing a single numerical code for the flow-field computations. The cases analyzed include flows with low and high Reynolds numbers and peaked and uniform surface injection rates. It is observed that with appropriate mixing-length formulation, and the use of an intermittency factor, most of the turbulence models considered predict comparable results for both blown and unblown surfaces.

Gupta, R. N.↗

Experimental study of a tri-functional propane hydronic heat pump

This study investigates the performance of a propane hydronic heat pump system for space cooling, heating, and water heating applications, focusing on various operational conditions, with a total refrigerant charge below 1200 g. Cooling performance was evaluated at different outdoor temperatures, compressor stages (capacity levels), and water flow rates. The results showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) for cooling was higher at lower outdoor temperatures, with peak values exceeding 5.0 under low-stage operation and lower water flow rate. The cooling capacity increased with higher flow rates and compressor stages, reaching 12 kW. Space heating performance, evaluated at ambient temperatures ranging from −8.3 °C to 16.7 °C, revealed a decrease in COP with lower temperatures. However, high-stage operation maintained higher heating capacities even at low temperatures. The system demonstrated high Heating Seasonal Performance Factors (HSPF), exceeding 10.0. For water heating, the COP decreased with lower ambient temperatures and higher supply water temperatures. The system efficiently heated an 189-L water tank, outperforming conventional water heaters, with process COPs exceeding 4.0 under cooling-season conditions. Despite some efficiency loss due to defrosting at low temperatures, the propane heat pump consistently delivered strong performance. Seasonal energy efficiency ratios (SEER) and seasonal heating COP values indicated significant overall efficiency. The study concludes that propane is a promising refrigerant for heat pump systems, with future research needed to future reduce total system charge and optimize system performance through advanced controls and heat exchanger designs.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

A Meteorological Overview of the TC4 Mission

The TC4 mission in Central America during summer 2007 examined convective transport into the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) and the evolution of cirrus clouds. The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) circulation is dominated by the Asian monsoon anticyclone and westward winds that stretch from the western Pacific into the Atlantic. During TC4, TTL westward flow over Central America was stronger than normal. Incidence of cold clouds over the Central American region was the third lowest out of 34 years sampled. The major factor was an incipient La Nina, specifically anomalously cold temperatures off the Pacific Coast of South America. Weakness in the low level Caribbean jet caused a shift in the coldest clouds from the Caribbean to the Pacific side of Central America. The character of tropopause temperature variability was that of upward propagating waves generated by local and nonlocal convection. These waves produced tropopause temperature variations of 3 K, with peak-to-peak variations of 8 K. At low levels in Central America, flow from the Sahara desert predominated; further south, the air came from the Amazon region. Convectively influenced air in the upper troposphere came from Central America, the northern Amazon region, the Atlantic ITCZ, and the North American monsoon. In the TTL, Asian and African convection affected the observed air masses. North of 10N in the Central American TTL, African and Asian convection may have contributed as much to the air masses as Central and South American convection. South of 8N, Asian and African convection had far less impact.

Pfister, L.↗

Reaction Kernel Structure of a Slot Jet Diffusion Flame in Microgravity

Diffusion flame stabilization in normal earth gravity (1 g) has long been a fundamental research subject in combustion. Local flame-flow phenomena, including heat and species transport and chemical reactions, around the flame base in the vicinity of condensed surfaces control flame stabilization and fire spreading processes. Therefore, gravity plays an important role in the subject topic because buoyancy induces flow in the flame zone, thus increasing the convective (and diffusive) oxygen transport into the flame zone and, in turn, reaction rates. Recent computations show that a peak reactivity (heat-release or oxygen-consumption rate) spot, or reaction kernel, is formed in the flame base by back-diffusion and reactions of radical species in the incoming oxygen-abundant flow at relatively low temperatures (about 1550 K). Quasi-linear correlations were found between the peak heat-release or oxygen-consumption rate and the velocity at the reaction kernel for cases including both jet and flat-plate diffusion flames in airflow. The reaction kernel provides a stationary ignition source to incoming reactants, sustains combustion, and thus stabilizes the trailing diffusion flame. In a quiescent microgravity environment, no buoyancy-induced flow exits and thus purely diffusive transport controls the reaction rates. Flame stabilization mechanisms in such purely diffusion-controlled regime remain largely unstudied. Therefore, it will be a rigorous test for the reaction kernel correlation if it can be extended toward zero velocity conditions in the purely diffusion-controlled regime. The objectives of this study are to reveal the structure of the flame-stabilizing region of a two-dimensional (2D) laminar jet diffusion flame in microgravity and develop a unified diffusion flame stabilization mechanism. This paper reports the recent progress in the computation and experiment performed in microgravity.

Takahashi, F.↗

Supersonic jet noise generated by large scale instabilities

The role of large scale wavelike structures as the major mechanism for supersonic jet noise emission is examined. With the use of aerodynamic and acoustic data for low Reynolds number, supersonic jets at and below 70 thousand comparisons are made with flow fluctuation and acoustic measurements in high Reynolds number, supersonic jets. These comparisons show that a similar physical mechanism governs the generation of sound emitted in he principal noise direction. These experimental data are further compared with a linear instability theory whose prediction for the axial location of peak wave amplitude agrees satisfactorily with measured phased averaged flow fluctuation data in the low Reynolds number jets. The agreement between theory and experiment in the high Reynolds number flow differs as to the axial location for peak flow fluctuations and predicts an apparent origin for sound emission far upstream of the measured acoustic data.

Seiner, J. M.↗

Molecular Rayleigh Scattering Diagnostic for Measurement of High Frequency Temperature Fluctuations

A novel technique for measurement of high frequency temperature fluctuations in unseeded gas flows using molecular Rayleigh scattering is investigated. The spectrum of laser light scattered from molecules in a gas flow is resolved using a Fabry-Perot interferometer. The width of the spectral peak is broadened by thermal motion of the molecules and hence is related to gas temperature. The interference fringe pattern containing spectral information is divided into four concentric regions using a series of mirrors angled with respect to one another. Light from each of these regions is directed towards photomultiplier tubes and sampled at 10 kHz using photon counting electronics. Monitoring the relative change in intensity within each region allows measurement of gas temperature. Independently monitoring the total scattered intensity provides a measure of gas density. This technique also has the potential to simultaneously measure a single component of flow velocity by monitoring the spectral peak location. Measurements of gas temperature and density are demonstrated using a low speed heated air jet surrounded by an unheated air co-flow. Mean values of temperature and density are shown for radial scans across the jet flow at a fixed axial distance from the jet exit plane. Power spectra of temperature and density fluctuations at several locations in the jet are also shown. The instantaneous measurements have fairly high uncertainty; however, long data records provide highly accurate statistically quantities, which include power spectra. Mean temperatures are compared with thermocouple measurements as well as the temperatures derived from independent density measurements. The accuracy for mean temperature measurements was +/- 7 K.

Mielke, Amy F.↗

Vitamin-Mediated Glucose Flow Cell for Sustainable Power Generation

Glucose as biofuel asserts unique advantages, including low-temperature electricity generation, easy accessibility, low storage cost, and flexible application for on-demand power generation. Riboflavin, also known as Vitamin B 2 , is a critical component in biological systems and is involved in many metabolic reactions as enzyme cofactors. Inspired by these metabolic reactions, we demonstrate a flow cell for electrochemical glucose oxidation reaction (GOR), using riboflavin as an environmentally friendly mediator to replace traditional noble metal catalysts. When paired with O 2 under alkaline conditions, the glucose flow cell achieves a peak power density of 13 mW/cm 2 , 20 times higher than the previous report in alkaline conditions. The demonstrated vitamin-mediated engineered biofuel flow cell delivered high peak power density at room temperature/ambient pressure while maintaining low cost and environmental friendliness, eliminating the need for a noble metal catalyst.

electrolytes↗