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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

AOI 5 Improved Efficiency of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Natural Gas and Propane (LPG) Engines

Spark-ignited heavy-duty (HD) natural gas engines typically experience efficiency losses at part-load operation due to throttling requirements needed to maintain stoichiometric combustion. A substantial portion of medium- and heavy-duty engine operation occurs in this low-load region, resulting in increased brake-specific carbon dioxide emissions and reduced overall efficiency. This project designed, developed and demonstrated cylinder deactivation (CDA) technology on an HD natural gas engine to mitigate these losses. CDA enables selective deactivation of cylinders, reducing pumping losses while maintaining required torque output and meeting vehicle noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) targets. The project objectives were successfully achieved, demonstrating up to 12% improvement in fuel consumption over the next generation HD NG engine on key low loaded HD cycles and maintained compliance with 0.02 g/hp-hr NO x emissions with comparable or better vibrations to current product. These results confirm that CDA technology can substantially improve the fuel efficiency and environmental performance of heavy-duty natural gas engines, reinforcing their potential as a low-carbon bridge solution in the transition toward zero-emission transportation technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy efficiency in industrial drying: A hybrid ultrasonic system with a novel dynamic optimization framework

Drying processes are among the most energy-consuming operations in industrial and manufacturing settings, demanding strategic selection, design, and control for enhanced efficiency. Advancing drying technologies is critical for improving sustainability, lowering energy use, reducing carbon emissions, and minimizing waste. This study explores two innovative strategies aimed at transforming drying processes into sustainable, low-carbon systems by reducing energy consumption, minimizing waste, and maintaining a strong emphasis on preserving product quality. The first strategy showcases a sub-pilot scale hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer for agrifood products. This technology, powered by electricity (process electrification), integrates non-thermal ultrasonic dehydration with convective heating and is presented as a sustainable and energy-efficient solution that enhances eco-friendly practices. The second strategy involves introducing and implementing a novel, multiobjective, mixed integer dynamic optimization technique to determine the optimal time-dependent process parameter values for the drying operation. This optimization technique yields operating conditions that are piecewise constant in time aiming to maximize the energy efficiency of the hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer while ensuring strict adherence to product quality constraints. By adopting the hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer, a notable 35% improvement in energy efficiency was achieved compared to conventional hot-air drying systems for drying apple slices. The proposed optimization framework further enhanced energy efficiency by nearly 14% over the most efficient process on the identical testbed, under static operating conditions. The reported enhancements have been experimentally validated. Regarding drying time (thereby improving production yield), the developed hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer demonstrates as much as a 41% reduction in total processing time, which is further optimized by an additional 10% using our proposed optimization framework. The research outcomes have profound implications for the design and operation of drying systems, encompassing crucial aspects such as process electrification, cost-effectiveness, energy savings, time efficiency, product yield, product quality, and process automation.

Dynamic optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-build stress-relief optimization for laser powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

Nuclear energy remains a critical component of a diversified and efficient energy portfolio, offering reliable, high-capacity, and low-carbon power. However, in the U.S., aging infrastructure and the slow qualification and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing techniques hinder progress in next-generation reactor technologies. This study explores the application of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing for stainless steel 316H, with a focus on optimizing post-build heat treatments to enhance material properties for high-temperature nuclear applications. The research targets the optimization of stress-relief temperatures to alleviate postbuild residual stresses, ensuring improvements in the microstructural corelated properties. A series of microstructural and mechanical evaluations were performed on LPBF-printed SS-316H samples which were subjected to annealing at temperatures varying between 650 °C and 850 °C. X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy analyses revealed that increasing the heattreatment temperature accelerated dislocation recovery. Vickers microhardness measurements showed an initial reduction in values, followed by stabilization over extended durations at all the temperatures. While higher temperatures facilitated faster recovery, they also promoted carbide precipitation along grain and solidification cell boundaries, narrowing the safe processing window. In contrast, heat treatment at 650°C preserved the cellular substructure and enabled controlled carbide precipitation over time. In conclusion, these findings highlight the importance of time–temperature optimization and suggest that 650°C for up to 2 h provides the most favorable balance between recovery and carbide control for a stress-relief treatment.

316 stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2026

A comparative assessment of the economic viability of nuclear-integrated direct air capture systems

Direct air capture (DAC) systems require heat and electricity to operate, which can be supplied by nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this study, the performance and cost of various conceptual nuclear-DAC systems are assessed, and their performance is compared with several non-nuclear options. Three nuclear-DAC systems are considered: (1) a liquid solvent direct air capture (L-DAC) system with heat supplied from natural gas (NG) and electricity supplied by an NPP, (2) an electrified L-DAC system, fully powered by electricity from an NPP, and (3) a solid sorbent direct air capture (S-DAC) system utilizing both heat and electricity generated by an NPP. Two nuclear technologies are considered: a pressurized water reactor and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. Under the medium conservatism scenario, the levelized cost of direct air capture (LCOD) for these systems range from $\$$310/tCO 2 to $\$$525/tCO 2 with the L-DAC system having an NG heat supply at the lower end of the range, and the electrified L-DAC system and the S-DAC system at the higher end of the range. Coupling with nuclear energy led to a 21 % reduction in LCOD for the L-DAC system with NG heat supply and a 29 % reduction for the S-DAC system when compared to fully NG-powered options. When powering the DAC system with grid electricity, the LCOD is highly dependent on the assumed electricity price and carbon intensity. The nuclear option is the cheaper choice when the price of low-carbon grid electricity exceeds $\$$95/MWh and $\$$45/MWh for the L-DAC and S-DAC systems, respectively.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions analysis of battery-grade lithium production in Finland

Various countries are undertaking initiatives to domestically produce battery-related critical materials. Within Finland, Keliber Technology Oy is developing capabilities for battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) production from spodumene ores. A detailed life-cycle assessment (LCA) of this pathway is conducted to determine its life-cycle GHG impacts using Argonne's R&D GREET (Research and Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model. The analysis shows life-cycle GHG emissions of similar to 9.2 kg CO 2-eq /kg LHM, dominated by contributions from three energy sources - diesel, natural gas, and electricity - and two material inputs - lime (CaO) and soda ash (Na 2 CO 3 ). Sensitivity analyses highlight the potential to reduce these impacts using low-carbon electricity, sequestration of process CO 2 emissions generated during CaO and Na 2 CO 3 production, and bio-based energy for LHM production (by similar to 15 % each). A comparative analysis shows lower impacts for Keliber's LHM than for existing LHM production from Australian spodumene ores processed in China (by similar to 40 %).

CCS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulating competition in the US bioeconomy to produce hard‐to‐electrify transportation fuels using limited biomass resources

This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno-economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost-optimized scenarios, while low-carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas-minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method

Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.

Yang, Jiahui↗
DOE OSTI2026

Innovations in underground hydrogen storage with multiphysics simulations, optimization, and monitoring: A review

Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) is a promising solution for large-scale energy storage and a critical component in advancing low-carbon energy system. Ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS necessitates a comprehensive understanding of multiphysical interactions driven by cyclic pore fluid pressure fluctuations and coupled physicochemical processes. Here, this review examines the key geomechanical responses in UHS, including rock property variations under cyclic loading, fracture evolution and propagation, reservoir stress sensitivity, and fault stability. It also explores the impact of geochemical and microbial reactions on geomechanical characteristics. We provide an in-depth analysis of Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) coupled numerical simulations, highlighting their potential for future multi-scale modeling. Limitations of current machine learning (ML) approaches in addressing UHS challenges are highlighted, emphasizing the need for innovative ML-based methodologies. Operational strategies for hydrogen injection and production are reviewed, focusing on safety, efficiency, and economic viability. The necessity for multi-objective optimization (MOO) to balance storage efficiency, risk mitigation, and cost-effectiveness is also discussed. Current monitoring technologies are evaluated to ensure safe and efficient UHS operations. Finally, this review identifies critical knowledge gaps and underscores the importance of advancing geomechanical understanding under multiphysics-coupling. We highlight the need for ML-driven multiphysics theories, enhanced modeling techniques, and robust optimization strategies to improve UHS performance. This study serves as a comprehensive reference for future research and the large-scale implementation of UHS systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Circular economy pathways for decarbonizing aluminum and steel automotive body sheet components in the United States

Decarbonizing vehicle production is essential to reducing automotive sector emissions. This study quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aluminum and steel auto-body sheet components produced in the US. It evaluates the effectiveness of circular economy (CE) strategies (greater closed-loop recycling of pre-consumer scrap, post-consumer scrap, and increased manufacturing yields) to reduce supply chain emissions across different process technology and electricity grid decarbonization pathways. We combine dynamic material flow analysis (2025–2050) with cradle-to-gate life-cycle modeling to assess production emissions and the potential reductions associated with the CE strategies under frozen, moderate, and aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenarios. Current emissions intensities are estimated at approximately 12.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of aluminum and 4.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of steel sheet embedded in the vehicle. Under the frozen decarbonization scenario and current levels of circularity, annual emissions attributable to US aluminum and steel auto-body sheet supply chains could rise by 54 % and 18 % respectively by 2050. Rapid deployment of the CE strategies can cut these annual emissions in 2050 by 52 % for aluminum and 44 % for steel. However, scrap quality constraints lead to saturation points, limiting these benefits unless addressed. Aggressive deployment of low-carbon production technologies and a low-carbon grid reduces the relative benefit of implementing the CE strategies; however, even under the aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenario, the CE strategies reduce annual emissions by a further 23 %-54 % by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need to integrate CE strategies into the sheet metal supply chain to support decarbonization efforts and help meet climate targets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen applications in airport operations: a review using the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey as an illustrative airport system

Airports combine aircraft propulsion, ground operations, stationary power systems, and fuel logistics in ways that make emissions reduction technically and operationally complex. Existing studies often assess hydrogen applications in these areas separately, limiting understanding of the shared infrastructure, safety, and operational constraints that shape airport deployment. This review evaluates hydrogen across three airport-relevant operational domains: aviation propulsion, ground support equipment and vehicles, and stationary power systems. Within aviation propulsion, the review examines sustainable aviation fuel production and hydrogen-powered aircraft as two distinct hydrogen-relevant pathways. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is used as an illustrative airport system to relate the literature to a real operating context. Drawing on peer-reviewed studies, technical reports, demonstration projects, and public operational information, the review also includes screening-level calculations of hydrogen demand and potential CO 2 e reductions for selected applications. The findings show that hydrogen's role is highly application-specific. Near-term opportunities are strongest where hydrogen serves as a low-carbon process input, supports selected high-utilization ground equipment, or contributes to resilient stationary power-system configurations. Hydrogen-powered aircraft remain a longer-term option because storage, fueling infrastructure, certification, cost, and NO x management continue to constrain deployment. Across all domains, infrastructure readiness, fuel logistics, safety requirements, and leakage management emerge as recurring determinants of viability. Future research should focus on cross-domain infrastructure planning, comparative assessment of hydrogen against alternative pathways, improved treatment of leakage and non-CO 2 effects, and clearer safety and regulatory frameworks for airport deployment.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

The iodine-129 paradox in nuclear waste management strategies

Nuclear energy has an important role in the low-carbon energy transition, but the safety of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management remains a public concern. Here, in this study, we investigate the interplay between waste management strategies and their environmental impacts with a particular focus on a highly mobile and persistent radionuclide, iodine-129 (I-129), which is the dominant risk contributor from SNF disposal and at existing groundwater contamination sites. The results show that the current recycling practice releases more than 90% of I-129 in SNF into the present-day biosphere using an isotropic dilution strategy, whereas the direct disposal of SNF in geological repositories is likely to delay and reduce the release by 8 orders of magnitude. In addition, our data synthesis of surface water concentrations near four nuclear facilities shows that the release-dilution strategy results in lower concentrations than regulatory standards, while insufficient waste isolation in the past has resulted in locally high concentrations within one site. Our analysis suggests that it is essential to consider effluents more explicitly as a part of the waste, that as society moves from dilution to isolation of waste, the potential risks of waste isolation to local regions should be carefully evaluated, and that excessive burdens of proof could hinder or discourage waste isolation. Comprehensive waste management strategies—considering not just volume but also mobility, isolation technologies and ultimate fates—are needed for persistent contaminants. This study offers valuable insights for optimizing the management of SNF and other persistent contaminants.

Wainwright, Haruko M. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech↗
DOE OSTI2026

Filling the cellulosic bio-economy gap by utilizing a wedge approach combined with stakeholder collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. Here, the role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels↗
DOE OSTI2025

Net-Zero Ethylene: On the Sustainability, Economics, and Scalability of Synthetic and Fossil Production Pathways

The ethylene industry has contributed over 260 million tons of CO 2 annually, warranting a more sustainable approach. The conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O into ethylene is an appealing technology capable of decoupling chemical production from fossil fuels. However, the large energy demand from this process can potentially lead to adverse environmental impacts. Here, in this article, we critically analyze the economic viability, environmental impact, and scalability of the conversion of CO 2 to ethylene via electrochemical reduction (CO 2 R) and compare this with those of CO 2 -neutral fossil routes utilizing carbon capture and direct air capture. Ethylene derived from CO 2 may be economically competitive under optimistic conditions; however, its large energy requirements pose environmental and scalability challenges. Meeting forecast 2050 ethylene demand using CO 2 R would require half of all electricity produced globally today, and, if powered by solar PV, may have greater CO 2 emissions than current petrochemical ethylene production, negating the purpose of this technology. Using Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture to decarbonize petrochemical pathways would require roughly an order of magnitude less energy but would have disproportionate health and climate impacts. Lastly, the analysis highlights the importance of low-carbon energy sources to ensure sustainable CO 2 R ethylene production.

CO2R↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geologic hydrogen: a review of resource potential, subsurface dynamics, exploration, production, transportation, and research opportunities

Hydrogen is a versatile resource with critical roles in decarbonization, industrial manufacturing, and energy integration. However, most hydrogen today is produced from fossil fuels, resulting in high emissions and energy consumption. Although low-carbon hydrogen production methods, such as steam methane reforming with carbon capture and renewable-powered electrolysis, are advancing, their high costs hinder large-scale deployment. Identifying alternative pathways for producing low-cost, low-emission hydrogen is therefore essential. Geologic hydrogen, referring to natural and stimulated hydrogen generated in the Earth's subsurface, has attracted growing attention as a potential source of sustainable, economically viable, and environmentally favorable hydrogen. This paper provides a comprehensive review of geologic hydrogen, covering its resource potential, origins, migration and trapping mechanisms, exploration techniques, production strategies, and pipeline transportation. It also identifies key knowledge gaps and proposes a roadmap for future research. The review indicates that geologic hydrogen has vast resource potential and can leverage existing subsurface technologies and geophysical exploration methods. However, major challenges persist, including uncertain hydrogen generation rates, limited understanding and control of serpentinization processes, costly transportation infrastructure, the lack of validated techno-economic analysis, and potential social and environmental issues. As the field is still in its early stages, progress will require interdisciplinary collaboration spanning geoscience, engineering, economics, environmental science, and policy and regulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗