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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Mechanistic model for catalytic recombination during aerobraking maneuvers

Several mechanistic models are developed to predict recombination coefficients for use in heat shield design for reusable surface insulation (RSI) on aerobraking vehicles such as space shuttles. The models are applied over a temperature range of 300 to 1800 K and a stagnation pressure range of 0 to 3,000 Pa. A four parameter model in temperature was found to work best; however, several models (including those with atom concentrations at the surface) were also investigated. Mechanistic models developed with atom concentration terms may be applicable when sufficient data becomes available. The requirement is shown for recombination experiments in the 300 to 1000 K and 1500 to 1850 K temperature range, with deliberate concentration variations.

Willey, Ronald J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A scalable, open-source implementation of a large-scale mechanistic model for single cell proliferation and death signaling

Mechanistic models of how single cells respond to different perturbations can help integrate disparate big data sets or predict response to varied drug combinations. However, the construction and simulation of such models have proved challenging. Here, we developed a python-based model creation and simulation pipeline that converts a few structured text files into an SBML standard and is high-performance- and cloud-computing ready. We applied this pipeline to our large-scale, mechanistic pan-cancer signaling model (named SPARCED) and demonstrate it by adding an IFNγ pathway submodel. We then investigated whether a putative crosstalk mechanism could be consistent with experimental observations from the LINCS MCF10A Data Cube that IFNγ acts as an anti-proliferative factor. The analyses suggested this observation can be explained by IFNγ-induced SOCS1 sequestering activated EGF receptors. This work forms a foundational recipe for increased mechanistic model-based data integration on a single-cell level, an important building block for clinically-predictive mechanistic models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model for creep and thermal aging in Alloy 709

This report describes a physics-based model for creep and thermal aging in Alloy 709. Alloy 709 is an advanced austenitic alloy, targeted for use in future Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs) and other advanced reactors. The material has superior high temperature properties compared to currently qualified 316 and 304 stainless steels. However, the available creep and thermal aging test database for Alloy 709 is significantly more limited compared to the historical materials. The physics-based model developed here is one way to accelerate the qualification of the material by providing more accurate long-term predictions for creep properties and thermal aging, compared to current empirical time-extrapolate techniques. The crystal plasticity finite element model is used to predict the deformation and failure of alloy 709. The same setup for the CPFE model is used in both the baseline model calibration process and the simulation campaigns for parameter inference. Specific constitutive choices are made for Alloy 709 to capture the primary deformation mechanisms. The dislocation creep formulation developed by Hu and Cocks is extended to account for coupled precipitation formation and the grain boundary cavitation model developed by Sham, Needleman, et al. is used to model grain boundary cavitation-induced failure. A novel update algorithm is proposed to render the semi-discrete constitutive update for the Sham-Needleman model unconditionally stable. A progressive calibration approach is adopted based on the observations that several types of material responses can be effectively decoupled. A surrogate model is trained based on full-fledged CPFE simulations to accelerate the forward model evaluations, and stochastic variational inference (SVI) is used to calibrate the unknown microstructural model parameters. The calibrated mechanistic model is used to predict the long-term creep life of Alloy 709, and the predictions are compared against classical empirical approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1994

Tracer evolution in winds generated by a global spectral mechanistic model

The lower boundary of a spectral mechanistic model is prescribed with 100 hPa geopotentials, and its performance during a November 1989 through March 1990 integration is compared with National Meteorological Center observations. Although the stratopause temperatures quickly become biased near the pole in both hemispheres, the model develops a residual mean circulation which shows significant descent over the winter pole and ascent in the tropics and over the summer pole at pressures less than 10 hPa. The daily correspondence of observed to modeled features in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere degrades after one month. However, the long-term variability qualitatively follows the observations. The results of off-line transport experiments are also described. A passive tracer is instantaneously injected into the flow over the poles and evolves in a manner which is consistent with the residual mean circulation. It demonstrates a significant cross-equatorial flux in the mesosphere near solstice, and air which originates in the southern hemisphere polar mesosphere can be found descending deep into the nothern polar stratosphere at the end of the integration. Nitrous oxide is also transported, and its ability to act as a dynamical tracer is evaluated by comparison to the evolution of the passive tracer.

Nielsen, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanistic modeling of in vitro transcription incorporating effects of magnesium pyrophosphate crystallization

The in vitro transcription (IVT) reaction used in the production of messenger RNA vaccines and therapies remains poorly quantitatively understood. Mechanistic modeling of IVT could inform reaction design, scale-up, and control. In this work, we develop a mechanistic model of IVT to include nucleation and growth of magnesium pyrophosphate crystals and subsequent agglomeration of crystals and DNA. To help generalize this model to different constructs, a novel quantitative description is included for the rate of transcription as a function of target sequence length, DNA concentration, and T7 RNA polymerase concentration. The model explains previously unexplained trends in IVT data and quantitatively predicts the effect of adding the pyrophosphatase enzyme to the reaction system. The model is validated on additional literature data showing an ability to predict transcription rates as a function of RNA sequence length.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Plant Metabolism: From Network Reconstruction to Mechanistic Models

Mathematical modeling of plant metabolism allows the plant science community to understand the organization of plant metabolism, obtain quantitative insights into metabolic functions, and derive engineering strategies for manipulation of metabolism. Among the various modeling approaches, metabolic pathway analysis can dissect the basic functional modes of subsections of core metabolism, such as photorespiration, and reveal how classical definitions of metabolic pathways have overlapping functionality. In current research using constraint-based modeling in plants, numerous computational tools are currently available to analyze large-scale and genome-scale metabolic networks. For 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, principles of isotopic steady state have been used to study heterotrophic plant tissues, while nonstationary isotope labeling approaches are amenable to the study of photoautotrophic and secondary metabolism. Enzyme kinetic models explore pathways in mechanistic detail, and we discuss different approaches to determine or estimate kinetic parameters. In this review, we describe recent advances and challenges in modeling plant metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combining synchrotron X-ray diffraction, mechanistic modeling and machine learning for in situ subsurface temperature quantification during laser melting

Laser melting, such as that encountered during additive manufacturing, produces extreme gradients of temperature in both space and time, which in turn influence microstructural development in the material. Qualification and model validation of the process itself and the resulting material necessitate the ability to characterize these temperature fields. However, well established means to directly probe the material temperature below the surface of an alloy while it is being processed are limited. To address this gap in characterization capabilities, a novel means is presented to extract subsurface temperature-distribution metrics, with uncertainty, from in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements to provide quantitative temperature evolution data during laser melting. Temperature-distribution metrics are determined using Gaussian process regression supervised machine-learning surrogate models trained with a combination of mechanistic modeling (heat transfer and fluid flow) and X-ray diffraction simulation. The trained surrogate model uncertainties are found to range from 5 to 15% depending on the metric and current temperature. The surrogate models are then applied to experimental data to extract temperature metrics from an Inconel 625 nickel superalloy wall specimen during laser melting. The maximum temperatures of the solid phase in the diffraction volume through melting and cooling are found to reach the solidus temperature as expected, with the mean and minimum temperatures found to be several hundred degrees less. The extracted temperature metrics near melting are determined to be more accurate because of the lower relative levels of mechanical elastic strains. However, uncertainties for temperature metrics during cooling are increased due to the effects of thermomechanical stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compare predictions of transient fission gas release by empirical and mechanistic models to experiments in high burnup UO 2 fuel

Understanding and predicting fuel performance at high burnup require improving our understanding of transient fission gas release. High-burnup operations enable new mechanisms of fission gas release, which affect fuel performance. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has recently published its interpretation of existing fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal data in a research information letter. There, transient fission gas release was identified as one of the main factors that contributes to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal, and therefore limits fuel extension to high burnup. However, transient fission gas release is a complex phenomenon that cannot be fully described by simple empirical descriptions. This report summarizes the development of a mechanistic model for high-burnup transient fission gas release in the fuel performance code BISON. This research was supported by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program during fiscal year 2023 to improve our understanding of high-burnup transient fission gas release and ability to predict it as a function of operation history. To support the development of a mechanistic transient fission gas release model, the existing Simple Integrated Fission Gas Release and Swelling (Sifgrs) model in BISON has been completely refactored to make it more modular and extensible. This effort supports the model's application to high-burnup conditions, its extension to other fuel forms, and the continuous improvement of its current features. Once refactoring was completed, models for high-burnup structure formation, fission gas transfer from non-restructured fuel to high-burnup structure, high-burnup structure intragranular and intergranular fission gas behavior, high-burnup structure bubble evolution, fuel pulverization, and the resulting transient fission gas release were tested and implemented in the Simple Integrated Fission Gas Release and Swelling (Sifgrs) model or tightly coupled to it. The new mechanistic model was then compared to an empirical model developed in parallel by a Nuclear Energy University Program project using a Studsvik high-burnup loss-of-coolant-accident assessment case. Finally, the report details the preliminary BISON results for a benchmark activity organized by the Nuclear Energy Agency to evaluate fuel performance codes' predictive capabilities for burst fission gas release. This work represents an important step toward a mechanistic understanding of fission gas release in high-burnup conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

DUET - Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport: A mechanistic model of leaf litter and herbaceous spatial distribution based on tree canopy structure

Heterogeneity in surface fuels produced by overstory trees and understory vegetation is a major driver of fire behavior and ecosystem dynamics. Previous attempts at predicting tree leaf and needle litter accumulation over time have been constrained in scope to probabilistic models that consider a limited number of key factors influencing tree litter dispersal patterns and decomposition processes. Here we present a mechanistic model for estimating variation in surface fuels called the Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport (DUET). DUET uses a pre-generated voxelated canopy array and distributes the leaf litter from the trees in an elliptical shape based on tree species characteristics, wind data, and location-specific features. DUET then calculates grass growth between trees and around the litter patterns and sets moisture levels based on relative humidity. In this study, we use DUET to simulate spatial distributions of leaf litter and illustrate model sensitivity to several parameters, providing inputs for testing fuel spatial heterogeneity impacts on fire behavior using process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale, mechanistic modeling of irradiation-enhanced silver diffusion in TRISO particles

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles are under consideration for use in several proposed advanced nuclear reactor concepts. The silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRISO acts as a barrier to prevent the release of the fission products. However, despite remarkable retention, silver (Ag) release has been observed from intact particles, which requires investigation since the Ag isotope ( 110m Ag) has a long half-life. Previous work focused on developing a multiscale, mechanistic model for Ag diffusion accounting for temperature and microstructure effect and has been successfully validated. In this work, we expand the previous model to account for irradiation-enhanced Ag diffusivity in SiC and improve its accuracy over a wider grain size and temperature ranges relevant for advanced reactor conditions. A temperature, grain size, and flux dependent diffusivity is therefore derived using the mesoscale code MARMOT and implemented in the fuel performance code BISON. The irradiation-enhanced Ag diffusivity in SiC is compared against experimental data and validated using BISON against Ag release measurements from the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program (AGR-1 and AGR-2). Herein, we quantify the impact of SiC grain size, irradiation, and temperature on Ag release. In agreement with previous studies, we find accounting for SiC grain size improves agreement between BISON predictions and experimental observations for most cases. In conclusion, we also find that accounting for irradiation improves agreement for cases where Ag release was underestimated, but the impact was less significant than accounting for microstructure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Progress toward an explicit mechanistic model for the light-driven pump, bacteriorhodopsin

Recent crystallographic information about the structure of bacteriorhodopsin and some of its photointermediates, together with a large amount of spectroscopic and mutational data, suggest a mechanistic model for how this protein couples light energy to the translocation of protons across the membrane. Now nearing completion, this detailed molecular model will describe the nature of the steric and electrostatic conflicts at the photoisomerized retinal, as well as the means by which it induces proton transfers in the two half-channels leading to the two membrane surfaces, thereby causing unidirectional, uphill transport.

Review, Tutorial↗

NASA NTRS1994

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Tung, K. K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic Models as Framework for Understanding Biomarker Disposition: Prediction of Creatinine‐Drug Interactions

Creatinine is widely used as a biomarker of glomerular filtration, and, hence, renal function. However, transporter‐mediated secretion also contributes to its renal clearance, albeit to a lesser degree. Inhibition of these transporters causes transient serum creatinine elevation, which can be mistaken as impaired renal function. The current study developed mechanistic models of creatinine kinetics within physiologically based framework accounting for multiple transporters involved in creatinine renal elimination, assuming either unidirectional or bidirectional‐OCT2 transport (driven by electrochemical gradient). Robustness of creatinine models was assessed by predicting creatinine‐drug interactions with 10 perpetrators; performance evaluation accounted for 5% intra‐individual variability in serum creatinine. Models showed comparable predictive performances of the maximum steady‐state effect regardless of OCT2 directionality assumptions. However, only the bidirectional‐OCT2 model successfully predicted the minimal effect of ranitidine. The dynamic nature of models provides clear advantage to static approaches and most advanced framework for evaluating interplay between multiple processes in creatinine renal disposition.

Scotcher, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mechanistic modeling of copper corrosions in data center environments

Air-side economizers are increasingly used to take advantage of “free-cooling” in data centers with the intent of reducing the carbon footprint of buildings. However, they can introduce outdoor pollutants to indoor environment of data centers and cause corrosion damage to the information technology equipment. Here, to evaluate the reliability of information technology equipment under various thermal and air-pollution conditions, a mechanistic model based on multi-ion transport and chemical reactions was developed. The model was used to predict Cu corrosion caused by Cl2-containing pollutant mixtures. It also accounted for the effects of temperature (25 °C and 28 °C), relative humidity (50%, 75%, and 95%), and synergism. It also identified higher air temperature as a corrosion barrier and higher relative humidity as a corrosion accelerator, which agreed well with the experimental results. The average root mean square error of the prediction was 13.7 Å. The model can be used to evaluate the thermal guideline for data centers design and operation when Cl2 is present based on pre-established acceptable risk of corrosion in data centers’ environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential of a Plant Gas Exchange Mechanistic Model to Predict Plant Transpiration in Veggie on ISS

Plants are an essential part of long-duration space travel, as they enable food production and contribute to air revitalization through photosynthesis, and water recycling through transpiration. Understanding their growth mechanisms is essential to use them to sustain human life in space. In particular, gas exchange – e.g., CO2 absorption and water transpiration – are modified in microgravity because of the lack of buoyancy-driven convection, and in the long run, this could result in impaired plant growth. Water absorbed by the plants mainly depends on their size and on environmental conditions (air temperature, humidity and ventilation), but in microgravity watering plants is a delicate operation – too much water results in flooded roots and too little water leads in a few hours to wilted plants. This is regularly experienced in the Veggie system on ISS, which enables small-scale food production in microgravity since 2014. This presentation explores how a mechanistic model of plant gas exchange can help predict plant transpiration in Veggie and thus better predict daily watering. For each plant, inputs on canopy leaf area (acquired with daily photos), air temperature and relative humidity in the plant compartment, as well as airspeed at the top of its canopy enable accurate predictions of transpiration in microgravity. This brings a better understanding of water movement through the plant in microgravity in relation to ventilation and plant size and would result in easier management of plant watering in Veggie. Ultimately, this work could be applied to any space crop production in microgravity and be used for water management and yield predictions. This work was funded by NASA Space Biology through NASA postdoctoral program / USRA.

Lucie Poulet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential of a Plant Gas Exchange Mechanistic Model to Predict Plant Transpiration in Veggie on ISS

Lucie Poulet↗