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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Robust Strategy for Rocket Engine Health Monitoring

Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.

Santi, L. Michael↗

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Schweikhard, W. G.↗

An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone motion using Nimbus and NOAA-2 infrared measurements

A statistical method for predicting tropical cyclone positions 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours after initial observation is described. Satellite measurements were at the 11.0 micron channel and at equivalent blackbody temperatures which give representations of the structure of the cyclones, as well as the circulation features surrounding them. In all, 197 individual measurements for blackbody temperature were made. Algorithms prepared from a single satellite image included 14 climatological and persistence type variables, and are based on eigenvector preprocessing and a series of independent screening tests. The independent tests showed that the average error made by the algorithms from the single satellite observation were comparable to the 48 hr Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast and were about 10 percent better for 72 hr forecasts. Forecasts using only climatological persistence variables were found to be 20 percent worse than JTWC for 24 hr forecasts and 10 percent worse for 48 and 72 hr forecasts. When both satellite and nonsatellite variables were included, it was found that the method was comparable to JTWC for the 24 and 48 hr forecasts and about 25 percent better for the 72 hr forecasts.

Hunter, H. E.↗

Fluorescent-Antibody Measurement Of Cancer-Cell Urokinase

Combination of laboratory techniques provides measurements of amounts of urokinase in and between normal and cancer cells. Includes use of fluorescent antibodies specific against different forms of urokinase-type plasminogen activator, (uPA), fluorescence microscopy, quantitative analysis of images of sections of tumor tissue, and flow cytometry of different uPA's and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) found in suspended-tumor-cell preparations. Measurements provide statistical method for indicating or predicting metastatic potentials of some invasive tumors. Assessments of metastatic potentials based on such measurements used in determining appropriate follow-up procedures after surgical removal of tumors.

Morrison, Dennis R.↗

Challenges for the statistical gravitational-wave method to measure the Hubble constant

Gravitational waves (GW) can be employed as standard sirens that will soon measure the Hubble constant with sufficient precision to weigh in on the ~5σ Hubble tension. Most GW sources will have no identified electromagnetic counterpart, leading to uncertainty in the redshift of the source, and in turn a degeneracy between host galaxy distance, redshift, and H 0 . In the case where no electromagnetic counterparts are identified, it has been proposed that a statistical canvassing of candidate GW hosts, found in a large galaxy survey for example, can be used to accurately constrain the Hubble constant. We study and simulate this "galaxy voting" method to compute H 0 . Here, we find that the Hubble constant posterior is in general biased relative to the true value even when making optimistic assumptions about the statistical properties of the sample. Using the MICECAT light-cone catalog, we find that the bias in the H0 posteriors depends on the realization of the underlying galaxy sample and the precision of the GW source distance measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

New Probe of Cosmic Birefringence Using Galaxy Polarization and Shapes

We propose a novel statistical method to measure cosmic birefringence and demonstrate its power in probing parity violation due to axions. Exploiting an empirical correlation between the integrated radio polarization direction of a spiral galaxy and its apparent shape, we devise an unbiased minimum-variance estimator for the rotation angle, which should achieve an uncertainty of 5°–15° per galaxy. In conclusion, large galaxy samples from the forthcoming SKA continuum surveys, together with optical shape catalogs, promise a comparable or even lower noise power spectrum for the rotation angle than in the CMB Stage-IV (CMB-S4) experiment, with different systematics.

Axion-like particles↗

A method for the measurement and the statistical analysis of atmospheric turbulence

The instantaneous values of output voltages representing the wind velocity vector and the temperature at different elevations of the 250-foot meteorological tower located at NASA Wallops Flight Center are provided with the three dimensional split-film TSI Model 1080 anemometer system. The output voltages are sampled at a rate of one every 5 milliseconds, digitized and stored on digital magnetic tapes for a time period of approximately 40 minutes, with the use of a specially designed data acqusition system. A new calibration procedure permits the conversion of the digital voltages to the respective values of the temperature and the velocity components in a Cartesian coordinate system connected with the TSI probe with considerable accuracy. Power, cross, coincidence and quadrature spectra of the wind components and the temperature are obtained with the use of the fast Fourier transform. The cosine taper data window and ensemble and frequency smoothing techniques are used to provide smooth estimates of the spectral functions.

Tieleman, H. W.↗

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗

Alternating Conditional Expectations: Introducing a Non‐Parametric Statistical Method to Interpret Long‐Term Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurements Over Semi‐Arid and Wetland Ecosystems

Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Designing an Exploration Atmosphere Prebreathe Protocol

Extravehicular activities (EVAs) at remote locations must maximize limited resources such as oxygen (O2) and also minimize the risk of decompression sickness (DCS). A proposed remote denitrogenation (prebreathe) protocol requires astronauts to live in a mildly hypoxic atmosphere at 8.2 psia while periodically performing EVAs at 4.3 psia. Empirical data are required to confirm that the protocol meets the current accept requirements: less than or equal to 15% incidence of Type I DCS, less than or equal to 20% incidence of Grade IV venous gas emboli (VGE), both at 95% statistical confidence, with no Type II DCS symptom during the validation trial. METHODS: A repeated measures statistical design is proposed in which groups of 6 subjects with physical characteristics similar to active-duty astronauts would first become equilibrated to an 8.2 psia atmosphere in a hypobaric chamber containing 34% O2 and 66% N2, over 48 h, and then perform 4 simulated EVAs at 4.3 psia over the next 9 days. In the equilibration phase, subjects undergo a 3-h 100% O2 mask prebreathe prior to and during a 5-min ascent to 8.2 psia to prevent significant tissue N2 supersaturation on reaching 8.2 psia. Masks would be removed once 34% O2 is established at 8.2 psia, and subjects would then equilibrate to this atmosphere for 48 h. The hypoxia is equivalent to breathing air at 1,220 meters (4,000 ft) altitude, just as was experienced in the shuttle 10.2 psia - 26.5% O2 staged denitrogenation protocol and the current ISS campout denitrogenation protocol. For simulated EVAs, each subject dons a mask and breathes 85% O2 and 15% N2 during a 3-min depressurization to 6.0 psia, holds for 15 min, and then completes a 3-min depressurization to 4.3 psia. The simulated EVA period starts when 6.0 psia is reached and continues for a total of 240 min (222 min at 4.3 psia). During this time, subjects will follow a prescribed repetitive activity against loads in the upper and lower body with mean metabolic rate approaching 1500 BTU/hr [378 kcal/hr (O2 consumption about 1.3 l(sub STPD)/min)] in ambulatory subjects. Noninvasive Doppler ultrasound bubble monitoring for VGE in the pulmonary artery will be performed on subjects by 2 Doppler Technicians at about 15 min intervals while at 4.3 psia. At the end of this period, a 15-min repressurization returns all subjects back to 8.2 psia and the cycle is repeated 3 additional times with a day of rest between simulated EVAs. RESULTS: With an assumed 1.5% probability of DCS [P(DCS)] and accounting for within-subject correlation, running the proposed study with 20 subjects has a 95% probability of meeting the accept criterion for DCS. But if the true probability of DCS is 3.0%, then 30 subjects would be needed to achieve about the same probability to meet our accept criterion. These results assume a standard deviation of 1.4 for the between-subjects random component of P(DCS) on a logit scale, which was estimated from a previous study.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Measurement of the W-boson mass and width with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV

Proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011, at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, have been used for an improved determination of the W-boson mass and a first measurement of the W-boson width at the LHC. Recent fits to the proton parton distribution functions are incorporated in the measurement procedure and an improved statistical method is used to increase the measurement precision. The measurement of the W-boson mass yields a value of m w = 80,366.5 ± 9.8 (stat.) ± 12.5 (syst.) MeV = 80,366.5 ± 15.9 MeV, and the width is measured as Γ w = 2202 ± 32 (stat.) ± 34 (syst.) MeV = 2202 ± 47 MeV. The first uncertainty components are statistical and the second correspond to the experimental and physics-modelling systematic uncertainties. Both results are consistent with the expectation from fits to electroweak precision data. The present measurement of m w is compatible with and supersedes the previous measurement performed using the same data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Time-dependent MOS breakdown

A general model for time-dependent breakdown in metal-oxide-silicon (MOS) structures is developed and related to experimental measurements on samples deliberately contaminated with Na. A statistical method is used for measuring the breakdown probability as a function of log time and applied field. It is shown that three time regions of breakdown can be explained respectively in terms of silicon surface defects, ion emission from the metal interface, and lateral ion diffusion at the silicon interface.

Li, S. P.↗

Deep-field analytical calibration

The next generation of imaging surveys, including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Euclid, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, will provide unprecedented constraints on cosmology using weak gravitational lensing. To fully exploit this statistical power, shear measurement methods must achieve sub- per cent accuracy while mitigating systematic biases from noise, the point-spread function (PSF), blending, and shear-dependent detection. The analytical calibration framework (AnaCal) has demonstrated such accuracy but requires adding noise to images, reducing effective depth. We introduce Deep-Field Analytical Calibration (DEEP-FIELD AnaCal), an extension of AnaCal that uses deep-field images to compute shear responses while preserving the statistical power of wide-field data. We validate DEEP-FIELD AnaCal on isolated and blended galaxy image simulations with LSST-like conditions, finding it meets the stringent requirement of multiplicative bias $|m| < 3\times 10^{-3}$ at 99.7 per cent confidence. Compared to standard AnaCal applied to wide-field images, DEEP-FIELD AnaCal increases the effective galaxy number density from 17 to 30 arcmin$^{-2}$ for simulated 10-yr LSST data. With deep fields $10\times$ longer than the wide field, we find pixel noise variance in shear estimation is reduced by 30 per cent and overall uncertainty by $\sim 25~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. Finally, using the LSST Deep Drilling Fields strategy, we assess sample variance and find an equivalent calibration uncertainty of $\lesssim 0.3~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. These results demonstrate that DEEP-FIELD AnaCal offers a promising path to achieve the required shear calibration for upcoming weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Retrieval of atmospheric temperature profiles by a scanning microwave spectrometer

The Nimbus-6 satellite carries a scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) experiment. The five frequency bands observed are near 22.2, 31.6, 52.8, 53.8, and 55.4 GHz. The calibration system permitted preflight calibration to an accuracy of about 1 K. In orbit, small empirical corrections were made to the calibration constants to obtain agreement in the mean of SCAMS measurements with computations based on conventional data analyzed by the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Global maps of temperature profiles were retrieved from the SCAMS measurements by a statistical method. Using the NMC analysis as the verification, RMS errors in level temperatures range of about 2-4 K, depending on altitude. Errors for layers of octave extent in pressure are uniformly about 2 K. Theoretical computations show that additional spectrometer channels would improve temperature sensing performance

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗

Statistical Analysis of a Debugging Model

Suppose that a system is undergoing a sequence of trials and design changes in an effort to find and eliminate design flaws in the system. Specifically, suppose that each trial is classified as an assignable cause failure (if the failure is due to one or more design flaws), an inherent failure (if the failure is not due to a design flaw), or a success. After each assignable cause failure, the design flaws that caused the failure are removed. In the case of statistically independent and identical design flaws, a probabilistic model is developed to describe this debugging process. Explicit expressions are obtained for the distributions of the important random variables and for the important measures of reliability. Statistical methods are developed for estimating the parameters of the model from accumulated test data.

Siegrist, K.↗

Psychophysical rating of image compression techniques

Image compression schemes abound with little work which compares their bit-rate performance based on subjective fidelity measures. Statistical measures of image fidelity, such as squared error measures, do not necessarily correspond to subjective measures of image fidelity. Most previous comparisons of compression techniques have been based on these statistical measures. A psychophysical method has been used to estimate, for a number of compression techniques, a threshold bit-rate yielding a criterion level of performance in discriminating original and compressed images. The compression techniques studied include block truncation, Laplacian pyramid, block discrete cosine transform, with and without a human visual system scaling, and cortex transform coders.

Stein, Charles S.↗

Application of the Bootstrap Statistical Method in Deriving Vibroacoustic Specifications

This paper discusses the Bootstrap Method for specification of vibroacoustic test specifications. Vibroacoustic test specifications are necessary to properly accept or qualify a spacecraft and its components for the expected acoustic, random vibration and shock environments seen on an expendable launch vehicle. Traditionally, NASA and the U.S. Air Force have employed methods of Normal Tolerance Limits to derive these test levels based upon the amount of data available, and the probability and confidence levels desired. The Normal Tolerance Limit method contains inherent assumptions about the distribution of the data. The Bootstrap is a distribution-free statistical subsampling method which uses the measured data themselves to establish estimates of statistical measures of random sources. This is achieved through the computation of large numbers of Bootstrap replicates of a data measure of interest and the use of these replicates to derive test levels consistent with the probability and confidence desired. The comparison of the results of these two methods is illustrated via an example utilizing actual spacecraft vibroacoustic data.

Hughes, William O.↗