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At least 19 records

Quantitative Encapsulation and Homogeneity Assessment of Sol–Gel Based Nuclear Explosive Debris Simulants

Nuclear explosive debris simulants are an important material in training and validating aspects of post-detonation nuclear forensic processes. Realistic simulants should replicate several aspects of nuclear explosive debris such as the size, shape, color, density, and chemical and radiological properties. Silica particles produced via sol-gel synthesis have recently been found to successfully reproduce many of these parameters including the controllable incorporation of radionuclide content. However, to be useful as a benchmarking material for validation and verification of laboratory methodologies, radionuclide content from batch-to-batch must be reproducible. Here, in this work, we explore the variance in radionuclide distribution incorporated into sol-gel benchmarking materials with respect to sample subdivision. Results will help inform the sample sizes required to minimize variance between samples.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE

Forensic characterization of surrogate nuclear explosion debris: radiochemical and spectroscopic strategies for method validation

Surrogate nuclear explosion debris (SNED) has emerged as a critical platform for advancing post-detonation nuclear forensic analysis in the absence of readily accessible historic materials. SNED enables controlled investigation and validation of analytical methodologies used to interrogate the chemical, isotopic, radiological, and microstructural signatures preserved in nuclear explosion debris. This review presents an integrated assessment of destructive and non-destructive analytical techniques commonly employed within decision-driven nuclear forensic workflows. Each technique is discussed individually while highlighting how it contributes to different stages of post-detonation analysis. Core methods – including gamma and alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS, TIMS, SIMS, SEM-EDS, XRF, LIBS, vibrational spectroscopy, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy – are critically evaluated with respect to forensic maturity, information content, and matrix limitations. Emphasis is placed on the role of SNED in benchmarking multi-modal workflows and identifying gaps in reproducing heterogeneity, fractionation, and radiation-driven evolution relevant to forensic attribution.

X-ray spectroscopic methods

A comparison of long-term 37 Ar and 39 Ar transport and implications for 39 Ar as a persistent indicator of underground nuclear explosions

Measurements were first made in 2016 of legacy 39 Ar gas from the decades-old Barnwell underground nuclear explosion site within the Nevada National Security Site. This has raised the question of the ubiquity of the radionuclide 39 Ar following underground nuclear explosions in general locations. This article presents a high-level evaluation of the scientific case for using 39 Ar as a long-term indicator of underground nuclear explosions. Assessment is made based on a broad set of assumptions to reasonably estimate the persistence of 39 Ar in the subsurface environment following an explosion to establish potential detectability years to decades after the originating event.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P

Designing Yield Grids for Airborne Nuclear Explosions to Maintain Decrements in Rayleigh Waveform Amplitudes

This document details a method for selecting grid points that sample the yields of airborne, low yield nuclear explosions that constrains the relative size of seismic waveforms sourced by explosions that are parameterized by this grid. In detail, we impose this constraint so that the vertical component of ground displacement that is sourced by explosions with a fixed height of burst (HoB) at grid point k change by a fixed factor of a when compared to the waveform amplitudes sourced by explosions at grid point k + 1, as observed at a fixed standoff distance. This gridding thereby preserves amplitude ratios along the grid so that they are agnostic to k. We assert that this method is useful in tests that apply algorithms against synthetic or augmented datasets for which the performance of the algorithm must be measured against source size, and waveform amplitudes must change uniformly (e.g., Berg et al, 2025).

58 GEOSCIENCES

The Dynamic Networks Experiments: Virtual Experiments to Quantify Gains in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

We describe an ongoing series of virtual experiments conducted collaboratively by four United States National Laboratories: Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These Dynamic Network Experiments (DNEs) provide an experimental framework to evaluate the potential impact of new research tools on nuclear explosion monitoring. The second DNE (DNE2), completed in 2024, exploited waveform data (seismic, infrasound, and electromagnetic) that was recorded by multi-modal sensors within and near the Nevada National Security Site and synthetic radionuclide signatures over multiple time periods. During the execution of DNE2, we processed and analyzed data through a multi-stage event processing pipeline that ingested raw data, performed quality control, detected signals, built events from these signals, located these events, and characterized the events’ source types and sizes. For each stage and over the entire event processing pipeline, we evaluated performance changes by comparing the performance of new data processing methods, models, and algorithms against a baseline. We also performed an additional execution phase to assess event processing pipeline function, speed, and efficiency against that of an expert analyst, including computational and manual efforts. Finally, we assessed the impact and effort of modern computing infrastructure on the monitoring pipeline. This paper describes key elements of the DNEs, from formulation through execution, as demonstrated in DNE2. The DNEs introduce several novel concepts to quantitatively measure the potential impact of new methods on explosion monitoring, including the collaborative design of multi-modal datasets, performance and logistical metrics, and integrated analyses.

42 ENGINEERING

Yield Estimates of three Historical Atmospheric Nuclear Explosions at Lop Nor, from Reduced Order Models of Regionally Recorded Rayleigh Waveforms and One Seismic Station: A Brief Communication

We use a reduced order model (ROM) for Rayleigh waveforms sourced by large atmospheric explosions along with data collected from a single seismic station (TLG) to estimate the yields of three atmospheric nuclear tests with order-megaton (MT) yields. These historical tests were conducted by China between 1973 and 1980 (CHIC 15, CHIC 16, and CHIC 26). We use our ROM to estimate yields of 2.34 MT (CHIC 15), 0.51 MT (CHIC 16), and 1.15 (CHIC 26) in the 20.5 s period band that are consistent with publicly accepted values of 3 MT (CHIC 15), 0.50 MT (CHIC 16), and 0.730 MT (CHIC 26).

58 GEOSCIENCES

Possible ozone depletions following nuclear explosions

The degree of depletion of the ozone layer ensuing after delivery of strategic nuclear warheads (5000 and 10,000 Mton) due to production of nitrogen oxides is theoretically assessed. Strong depletions are calculated for 16-km and 26-km altitudes, peaking 1-2 months after detonation and lasting for three years, while a significant depletion at 36 km would peak after one year. Assuming the explosions occur between 30 and 70 deg N, these effects should be much more pronounced in this region than over the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. It is concluded that Hampson's concern on this matter (1974) is well-founded.-

Whitten, R. C.