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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of the Mw7.2 1992 Landers,California, Earthquake

An important part of the simulation technique implemented in the Recipe is the earthquake rupture characterization based on established empirical scaling relationships between source parameters and seismic moment. The scaling relationships used in the rupture characterization are derived from recorded data and are tested against dynamic and kinematic rupture models of crustal earthquakes. Currently, a revised three-stage source scaling relationship between the source rupture area and seismic moment of inland crustal earthquakes, initially proposed by Irikura and Miyake, is being used. Recent analysis of results obtained with the Recipe for the 2016 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake performed by several researchers, including the PI, Arben Pitarka, indicate that in order to reproduce the near-fault long-period ground motions and the permanent displacements, observed during surface-rupturing earthquakes, the recipe needs modifications to the kinematic rupture parametrization in the shallow crustal weak zone. In particular, improvements are required in characterizing the slip rate function at shallow depths, above the sesimogenic zone. The main objective of this research project was the development of a dynamic rupture model for the Mw7.2 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The dynamic rupture model was used to derive kinematic rupture parameters, such as slip, slip-rate, rupture time distributions, and slip rate functions in the weak (0-4km) and seismogenic crustal zones. In addition to the knowledge gained from the dynamic rupture modeling of Chi-chi, Ridgecrest, Kumamoto and other crustal earthquakes, studied by the PI, the rupture characterization of the Landers earthquake can be helpful in updating the conventional recipe for broadband ground motion simulations of crustal earthquakes with shallow rupture. The project emphasizes the need for performing physics-based earthquake rupture modeling which ultimately will inform further improvements of rupture characterization. In particular, the modeling of rupture dynamics for recorded earthquakes, and numerical simulations for different rupture scenarios, provides physical constrains on slip evolution in time and space, used in adjustments of empirical source scaling relationships for large crustal earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into Slip-Rate Time Functions, Rupture Parameter Correlations, and Ground Motions from Validated Multicycle Earthquake Ruptures

Earthquake strong-motion predictions using kinematic source modeling require knowledge of the slip-rate functions (SRFs) along the rupture and their distinct characteristics in asperities, background (off-asperity) areas and near the surface. Here, in this study we analyzed SRFs from well-validated, self-consistent, and fully dynamic rupture models from earthquake cycles obeying a rate-and-state friction law, from our companion study (Galvez et al., 2021). The shapes of SRFs in asperities are well described by the regularized Yoffe function (RYF), which has only two parameters: rise time T r and smoothing time T s , which control the generation of long- and short-period ground motions, respectively. In background areas, we demonstrate that, in addition to the primary rupture, multiple secondary ruptures may also nucleate from rupture heterogeneities related to asperities, resulting in SRFs with multiple peaks. Because it is impossible to fit a multiple-peak SRF by the single-peak RYF, we describe SRFs in background areas in an effective way by fitting their amplitude spectra with the RYF spectra. Such spectrally effective RYFs capture salient aspects of seismic-wave generation and can be used in rupture generators for strong motion prediction. We found that small T s values correlate with small characteristic weakening distances, large peak slip rates (PSRs), and large rupture velocities. T r values are larger in background areas and smaller in asperities. Within the shallow aseismic zone, T s values approximately quadruple whereas T r values approximately double. Because of this dominant T s increase, PSR values decrease in the near-surface zone. These features indicate that the generation of strong motions by the near-surface portions of the rupture is negligible in the studied scenarios.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Predictive Model for Accurate Rupture Time from Multi-Axial Creep in Alloy 709 with Physics-Based Simulations

A physics-based model is developed to predict multiaxial creep behavior in Alloy 709 (A709), an advanced austenitic stainless steel intended for high-temperature applications such as Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). Compared to conventional stainless steels like 316H, A709 offers superior high-temperature performance; however, comprehensive data on its multiaxial creep response remain limited. To address this gap, a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) framework is used to simulate the deformation and failure mechanisms of A709 under multiaxial loading conditions. The model incorporates an extended Hu-Cocks dislocation creep formulation that accounts for precipitation effects, along with the Sham–Needleman model to capture grain boundary cavitation-driven failure. These advanced constitutive models enable a detailed understanding of the interplay between microstructural evolution and macroscopic creep response. Furthermore, the study evaluates the predictive accuracy of various effective stress measures in estimating creep rupture life, leveraging simulated multiaxial creep data. The findings provide critical insights into the applicability of different stress measures for engineering design and life prediction of A709 components operating under complex loading conditions. This work contributes to improving the reliability of high-temperature structural components by advancing predictive modeling capabilities for advanced austenitic steels.

Alloy 709↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Effective Stress Measures: Predicting Creep Life for 3D Stresses Using 2D and 1D Creep Rupture Simulations and Data

Operating structural components experience complex loading conditions resulting in 3D stress states. Current design practice estimates multiaxial creep rupture life by mapping a general state of stress to a uniaxial creep rupture correlation using effective stress measures. The data supporting the development of effective stress measures are nearly always only uniaxial and biaxial, as 3D creep rupture tests are not widely available. This limitation means current effective stress measures must extrapolate from 2D to 3D stress states, potentially introducing extrapolation error. In this work, we use a physics-based, crystal plasticity finite element model to simulate uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial creep rupture. Here, we use the virtual dataset to assess the accuracy of current and novel effective stress measures in extrapolating from 2D to 3D stresses and also explore how the predictive accuracy of the effective stress measures might change if experimental 3D rupture data was available. We confirm these conclusions, based on simulation data, against multiaxial creep rupture experimental data for several materials, drawn from the literature. The results of the virtual experiments show that calibrating effective stress measures using triaxial test data would significantly improve accuracy and that some effective stress measures are more accurate than others, particularly for highly triaxial stress states. Results obtained using experimental data confirm the numerical findings and suggest that a unified effective stress measure should include an explicit dependence on the first stress invariant, the maximum tensile principal stress, and the von Mises stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Impact of Molten Halide Salts on Creep of Structural Alloys at 650°-750°C

There is a critical lack of data on the mechanical behavior of candidate structural materials for advanced nuclear reactors under molten halide salt environments. Limited legacy data from the molten salt reactor experiment (MSRE) program showed a significant reduction in creep rupture strength of a Ni-base alloy in molten fluoride salt. With ongoing efforts to commercialize different molten salt reactor concepts, the industry can considerably benefit from quantitative information on the impact of molten halide salts on the engineering properties such as creep and fatigue strength of materials of interest. The present work aims to assess the role of molten salt corrosion on the creep behavior of three alloys 316H, 617 and 282 at 650-816 °C. Creep tests were conducted in fluoride (FLiNaK) and chloride (NaCl-MgCl2) salts. Initial results from the ongoing testing will be presented which suggest that the molten salt environment caused a 25-50% reduction in creep rupture lifetime compared to air exposures. Physics-based corrosion and creep models were employed to gain some insights into the potential degradation mechanisms.

Pillai, Rishi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Precipitation-Strengthening Heat-Resistant Austenitic Stainless Steels for Life-Prediction Modeling

In this study, the role of minor alloying additions in 347H stainless steels (UNS34709, ASTM A240/240M) on creep-rupture properties at 650-750°C and microstructure evolution during isothermal exposure at 750°C has been investigated, aiming to provide the experimental dataset as boundary conditions of physics-based modeling for material/component life prediction. Four different 347H heats containing various amounts of boron and nitrogen additions were prepared and evaluated. The combined additions of B and N are found to stabilize the strengthening secondary M23C6 carbides and retarding the transition from M23C6 to sigma phase precipitates during thermal exposure. The observed kinetics of microstructure evolution reasonably explains the improvement of creep-rupture properties of 347H stainless steels with the B and N additions.

Yamamoto, Yukinori↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seismic response of vertical dry storage casks under three-dimensional earthquake motions

Ensuring the long-term seismic safety of dry storage casks (DSCs) is becoming increasingly critical as these systems evolve from temporary to de facto permanent repositories for spent nuclear fuels. Traditional seismic soil–structure interaction (SSI) assessment methods use one-dimensional deconvolution or simplified boundary conditions to model incident waves. Although computationally appealing, simplifying assumptions may alter the seismic risk by neglecting the full complexity of three-dimensional (3D) wave propagation effects. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel high-fidelity computational framework that leverages the Domain Reduction Method (DRM) with perfectly matched layers (PML) to accurately transfer complex, 3D seismic wavefields from regional-scale fault-rupture simulations into local-scale finite element models of DSCs. Using broadband, physics-based ground motions from a generic M w 7.0 strike-slip event, both single-cask and multi-cask configurations were investigated under near- and far-field conditions. Emphasis is placed on capturing complex SSI, spatial variability in the ground motion, and nonlinear phenomena such as cask rocking and sliding. Numerical results demonstrate that near-field conditions, where forward directivity and fling-step effects dominate, lead to significantly higher DSC rocking and sliding. Far-field cases, by contrast, generally exhibit modest responses. Incorporating SSI tends to amplify or alter DSC response spectra and introduce response variability, which underscores the need for site-specific evaluations and robust modeling approaches to ensure the seismic integrity of DSCs in interim spent fuel storage installations.

Das, Tonmoy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1

The fuel characterization models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) have recently been extended to include a new U-Pu-Zr metal fuel model, MFUEL. MFUEL is equipped with mechanistic physics based models to predict the pre-transient characterization and transient response of metal fuel, with emphasis on fuel melting, cladding failure, and the metal fuel’s impact on core reactivity. The MFUEL model will be available in the full version of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 5.7, which is scheduled to be released in June 2023. Fast reactor fuel pins that operated in EBR-II and FFTF with low smear density U-Zr and U-Pu-Zr metal fuels and irradiation resistant ferritic-martensitic cladding showed significant advantages in achieving high burnups and assuring inherent safety characteristics during anticipated transients, design basis events, and beyond design basis events. For safety analysis, a fuel performance model must be able to predict (1) Fuel pin mechanics and compositional and dimensional changes, (2) Clad failure, and (3) Fuel pin thermal resistance. Achieving these high level goals accurately is strongly related to the model performance of individual physical processes taking place within a fuel pin during its lifetime. Metal fuels typically operate above the mid-point temperature of melting during normal, as well as off-normal, conditions. At these elevated temperatures, the availability of thermal activation provides a driving force for various diffusional processes leading to complex phase transformations, micro-structure evolution, significant amounts of fuel swelling, interconnected porosity formation, excessive amounts of fission gas release, and fuel clad chemical interactions. Clad failure in fast reactors primarily occurs as a result of creep rupture augmented by clad wastage formation. The reaction is driven by thermal creep induced dislocation motion, grain boundary cavity nucleation, growth and breakup of grain boundaries. The high level complexity and limited available data requires introducing physics-based modeling approaches to gain extrapolation ability and sensitivity with respect to various conditions. The objective of this report is to perform validation of MFUEL using the experimental data for (1) Normal operation EBR-II fuel behavior, (2) Normal operation PHENIX fuel behavior, (3) HT9 Pressure tube ramp-and-hold creep rupture tests, (4) Whole Pin Furnace (WPF) creep strain, creep rupture and eutectic tests, (5) Fuel Behavior Test Apparatus (FBTA) eutectic tests, and (6) TREAT M5-7 OverPower tests up to clad failure. Section-2 includes a brief description of the MFUEL models. A detailed description of the MFUEL physics-based, semi-empirical models will be presented in the SAS V 5.7 theory manual. Section-3, 4, and 5 describes the validation effort for the pre-transient irradiation, furnace transients, and TREAT M-Series transients, respectively.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deformation and Fracture Behaviors of Cylindrical Battery Shell During Thermal Runaway

Thermal runaway is one of the catastrophic failure modes of lithium-ion cells. During thermal runaway in cylindrical cells, sidewall shell rupture has been identified as a contributing factor for thermal runaway propagation in battery packs. Herein, the deformation and fracture behaviors of the battery shell during thermal runaway are investigated based on in-situ and ex-situ characterization as well as physics-based modeling. The deformation and fracture modes of the battery shell with/without Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) sleeves are identified. In the simulation, the strain introduced by thermal expansion of the system is considered, as well as the thermal and strain rate effects on the plastic stage. The final cell shell modeling is validated by cell thermal runaway tests. Results reveal the quantitative relation between shell deformation behaviors and the pressure and temperature distribution. Both the experiment and model demonstrate the effectiveness of adding a tight-fitting CFRP sleeve around the cell in limiting the side-wall rupture of the shell. The use of CFRP tubes introduces a novel phenomenon in the context of uneven temperature distribution. Results shed light on the mechanistic analysis of a cell side-wall rupture during thermal runaway and provide essential guidance for the next-generation safe battery design.

battery casing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a health monitoring framework: Application to a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler

In this study, this work details the development of a physics-based equipment health monitoring framework for a supercritical boiler, using first-principles models to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of its components. The framework accounts for fatigue and creep life consumption, generating spatio-temporal variations in mechanical and thermal stress. Analysis of the stress profile throughout the boiler highlights the finishing superheater inlet steam header as a vulnerable location susceptible to damage from cycling operation. The framework also yields quantified uncertainty in the RUL projection for specific locations, accounting for uncertainties in material properties and boiler operation. Results indicate that operational uncertainties (e.g., seasonal variation and operational strategy) and material properties (e.g., rupture time coefficients, Young’s modulus, yield strength, and coefficient of thermal expansion) significantly impact the RUL of the finishing superheater inlet steam header. Additionally, case studies demonstrate the use of the health monitoring framework as a predictive tool for operational planning under uncertainty, including scenarios with and without updates on the operation of the boiler.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CALPHAD-based ICME design of single-step aging to enhance mechanical strength of WAAM Haynes 282

To match the strength of wire-arc additive manufactured Haynes 282 to its wrought counterpart via a single-step aging heat treatment, the CALPHAD (Calculation of Phase Diagrams) method is integrated with physics-based process-structure-property models and experimental validation. The integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) framework simulates the effects of aging on γ′ and M 23 C 6 precipitation and the resulting yield strength. To improve simulation reliability, the interfacial energies between γ/γ′ and γ/M 23 C 6 carbides were estimated by comparison with precipitation kinetic modeling and measured precipitate sizes. γ′ and M23C6 were found to precipitate simultaneously between 640 and 860 °C, producing microstructures similar to those produced by two-step aging. The optimal γ′ size for peak yield stress was calculated to be 20–23 nm. WAAM Haynes 282 aged at 780 °C for 50 h exceeded the mechanical performance of its wrought counterpart subjected to two-step aging, though desired properties can also be achieved at 800 °C for 16 h or less. The error in yield strength is less than 20 MPa, demonstrating good agreement between the modeling framework and experiments. Creep studies showed that WAAM Haynes 282 exceeded the calculated rupture time, reaching 481 h. This proposed methodology can accelerate the design of aging heat treatments for any γ′-strengthened nickel-base alloy, minimizing the resources required for trial-and-error experiments.

CALPHAD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Creep Deformation and Failure in Graded AM Microstructures

This report describes modeling tools and techniques developed to simulate the long-term material performance of 316H stainless steel manufactured using Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF). A physics-based Crystal Plasticity Finite Element model is used to simulate creep in microstructures and to study the roles of grain morphology, porosity, and texture. We describe our modeling methodology, including an orientation-mapping technique to capture the spatially varying crystallographic orientation that results from the build conditions. Our study of microstructural features shows that AM microstructures produced by LPBF tend to creep faster in the build direction, while texture and grain boundaries strengthen the transverse directions. However, when grain-boundary porosity and the consequent cavity growth are included in the model, the transverse directions begin to creep faster. In examining texture, the results indicate that spatially varying orientation arising from the build conditions increases anisotropy in the material, making it critical to account for orientation gradients in the material to accurately model its mechanical behavior. We also describe a material-model calibration campaign in which we calibrated the constitutive model specifically for LPBF 316H stainless steel at 725℃ for both solution-annealed and as-built conditions. Finally, these tools and techniques are used to model creep in microstructures representing different regions of an LPBF material with graded microstructure, owing to intentional variation in processing conditions. The creep simulation results show good agreement with experimental data across all three microstructures, with future work planned to study rupture in the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗