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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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30 records

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DOE OSTI2025

Research and Development on Advanced Electrochemical Energy Storage Devices Enabling a Spectrum of Electrified Vehicles

The USABC Advanced Battery development plan had the following three focus areas: 1. Existing technology validation, implementation, and cost reduction 2. Identification of the next viable technology with emphasis on the potential to meet USABC cost and energy density goals. 3. Support high-risk, high-reward battery technology R&D The primary aim of this project was focused on the barriers that most impede wider public adoption of electrification in vehicles-cost, energy density, low-temp performance, calendar life, and improvements in abuse tolerance. The specific objectives are as follows: Cost Reduction: drive to significantly reduce battery cost to be in-line with the $\$$100/kWh or less (by the end of calendar year 2020) DOE cost goals. Additionally, goals of $\$$75/KWh were set for 2023 aligned with fast charge and some offset of energy density. Energy Density Increase: focus on improving the cell-level specific energy and energy densities to >350 watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) and >750Wh/L. Low Temperature Performance Increase: strive toward developments that improve the discharge power and eliminate or dramatically reduce the life limiting lithium plating associated with regenerative braking at low temperatures, during the program. Calendar Life Increase: drive to achieve a 15-year calendar life. Abuse Tolerance Improvement: strive to develop improvements in Li-ion abuse tolerance and/or development of electrochemical energy storage technologies with inherently better response to abuse circumstances. Emerging Areas: initiate new programs that address emerging technologies that arise during the contract period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the role of local tunnel variations in early-stage lithiation of α-MnO₂ nanowires via in situ TEM

Understanding lithium-ion transport in tunnel-structured manganese oxides is essential for designing high-performance lithium-ion battery electrode materials. Here, we elucidate the early-stage lithiation mechanism of potassium-stabilized α-MnO 2 nanowires using in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) coupled with electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), high-resolution TEM (HRTEM), and geometric phase analysis (GPA). Real-time TEM imaging reveals clear volume expansion at the reaction front, while EELS analysis uncovers lithium-ion diffusion far beyond this region, where no visible expansion is observed, indicating fast, defect-assisted transport. GPA and HRTEM analyses show that localized tensile and compressive strain fields, originating from pre-existing local tunnel structural variations, persist after lithiation. The tensile-strained regions enable lithium-ion insertion with minimal lattice distortion, offering additional free volume that facilitates rapid lithium-ion accommodation ahead of the structural transformation. Our results demonstrate a local tunnel variation-mediated fast diffusion pathway that precedes bulk reaction, underscoring the critical role of local strain in enabling early-stage lithium transport. Given the structural versatility of MnO 2 and its ability to accommodate diverse atomic arrangements beyond the well-known tunnel phases (β-, γ-, δ-, λ-, R-phases), our findings highlight the importance of understanding and engineering local structural environments. This work provides fundamental insights into the interplay between defects, strain, and ion dynamics, and presents defect engineering as a promising approach to enhance both rate performance and structural stability in manganese-based cathodes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pre- and post-processing of cluster galaxies out to 5 × R 200: the extreme case of A2670

ABSTRACT We study galaxy interactions in the large-scale environment around A2670, a massive (M200 = $8.5 \pm 1.2~\times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{{M}_{\odot }}$) and interacting galaxy cluster at z = 0.0763. We first characterize the environment of the cluster out to 5× R200 and find a wealth of substructures, including the main cluster core, a large infalling group, and several other substructures. To study the impact of these substructures (pre-processing) and their accretion into the main cluster (post-processing) on the member galaxies, we visually examined optical images to look for signatures indicative of gravitational or hydrodynamical interactions. We find that ∼21 per cent of the cluster galaxies have clear signs of disturbances, with most of those (∼60 per cent) likely being disturbed by ram pressure. The number of ram-pressure stripping candidates found (101) in A2670 is the largest to date for a single system, and while they are more common in the cluster core, they can be found even at >4 × R200, confirming cluster influence out to large radii. In support of a pre-processing scenario, most of the disturbed galaxies follow the substructures found, with the richest structures having more disturbed galaxies. Post-processing also seems plausible, as many galaxy–galaxy mergers are seen near the cluster core, which is not expected in relaxed clusters. In addition, there is a comparable fraction of disturbed galaxies in and outside substructures. Overall, our results highlight the complex interplay of gas stripping and gravitational interactions in actively assembling clusters up to 5 × R200, motivating wide-area studies in larger cluster samples.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wyoming Trails Carbon Hub (WyoTCH)

The Wyoming Trails Carbon Hub (WyoTCH) project completed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study for a commercial-scale, open-access carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transport pipeline in Wyoming under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Award DEFE0032347, funded through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Carbon Capture Technology Program and administered by the National Energy Technology Laboratory. The project’s approach of designing a multi-source, multi-destination pipeline, rather than a dedicated line serving a single project, would lower the barrier to entry for individual CO 2 projects. The projects would leverage Wyoming's concentrated industrial and power generation CO 2 sources, its existing CO 2 pipeline infrastructure, and its extensive CO 2 storage and utilization capacity. This is the project's final technical report.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating hindered grain boundary diffusion using the smoothed boundary method

Abstract Grain boundaries can greatly affect the transport properties of polycrystalline materials, particularly when the grain size approaches the nanoscale. While grain boundaries often enhance diffusion by providing a fast pathway for chemical transport, some material systems, such as those of solid oxide fuel cells and battery cathode particles, exhibit the opposite behavior, where grain boundaries act to hinder diffusion. To facilitate the study of systems with hindered grain boundary diffusion, we propose a model that utilizes the smoothed boundary method to simulate the dynamic concentration evolution in polycrystalline systems. The model employs domain parameters with diffuse interfaces to describe the grains, thereby enabling solutions with explicit consideration of their complex geometries. The intrinsic error arising from the diffuse interface approach employed in our proposed model is explored by comparing the results against a sharp interface model for a variety of parameter sets. Finally, two case studies are considered to demonstrate potential applications of the model. First, a nanocrystalline yttria-stabilized zirconia solid oxide fuel cell system is investigated, and the effective diffusivities are extracted from the simulation results and are compared to the values obtained through mean-field approximations. Second, the concentration evolution during lithiation of a polycrystalline battery cathode particle is simulated to demonstrate the method’s capability.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interface Design for High‐Performance All‐Solid‐State Lithium Batteries

All‐solid‐state batteries suffer from high interface resistance and lithium dendrite growth leading to low Li plating/stripping Coulombic efficiency (CE) of <90% and low critical current density at high capacity. Here, in this work, both challenges are simultaneously addressed and the Li plating/stripping CE is significantly increased to 99.6% at 0.2 mA cm −2 /0.2 mAh cm −2 , and critical current density (CCD) of > 3.0 mA cm −2 /3.0 mAh cm −2 by inserting a mixed ionic‐electronic conductive (MIEC) and lithiophobic LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Bi nanocomposite interlayer between Li 6 PS 5 Cl electrolyte and Li anode. The highly lithiophobic LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Bi interlayer with high ionic conductivity (10 −5 S cm −1 ) and low electronic conductivity (3.4×10 −7 S cm −1 ) enables Li to plate on the current collector (CC) surface rather than on Li 6 PS 5 Cl surface avoiding Li 6 PS 5 Cl electrolyte reduction. During initial Li plating on CC, Li penetrates into porous LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Bi interlayer and lithiates Bi nanoparticles into Li 3 Bi. The lithiophilic Li 3 Bi and Li 3 N nanoparticles in LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Li 3 Bi sub‐interlayer will move to CC along with plated Li, forming LiF‐C/Li 3 N‐Li 3 Bi lithiophobic/lithiophilic sublayer during the following Li stripping. This interlayer enables Co 0.1 Fe 0.9 S 2 /Li 6 PS 5 Cl/Li cell with an areal capacity of 1.4 mAh cm −2 to achieve a cycle life of >850 cycles at 150 mA g −1 . The lithiophobic/lithiophilic interlayer enables solid‐state metal batteries to simultaneously achieve high energy and long cycle life.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncovering obscured phonon dynamics from powder inelastic neutron scattering using machine learning

The study of phonon dynamics is pivotal for understanding material properties, yet it faces challenges due to the irreversible information loss inherent in powder inelastic neutron scattering spectra and the limitations of traditional analysis methods. In this study, we present a machine learning framework designed to reveal obscured phonon dynamics from powder spectra. Using a variational autoencoder, we obtain a disentangled latent representation of spectra and successfully extract force constants for reconstructing phonon dispersions. Notably, our model demonstrates effective applicability to experimental data even when trained exclusively on physics-based simulations. The fine-tuning with experimental spectra further mitigates issues arising from domain shift. Analysis of latent space underscores the model’s versatility and generalizability, affirming its suitability for complex system applications. Furthermore, our framework’s two-stage design is promising for developing a universal pre-trained feature extractor. This approach has the potential to revolutionize neutron measurements of phonon dynamics, offering researchers a potent tool to decipher intricate spectra and gain valuable insights into the intrinsic physics of materials.

domain adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Active Learning for Rapid Targeted Synthesis of Compositionally Complex Alloys

The next generation of advanced materials is tending toward increasingly complex compositions. Synthesizing precise composition is time-consuming and becomes exponentially demanding with increasing compositional complexity. An experienced human operator does significantly better than a novice but still struggles to consistently achieve precision when synthesis parameters are coupled. The time to optimize synthesis becomes a barrier to exploring scientifically and technologically exciting compositionally complex materials. This investigation demonstrates an active learning (AL) approach for optimizing physical vapor deposition synthesis of thin-film alloys with up to five principal elements. We compared AL-based on Gaussian process (GP) and random forest (RF) models. The best performing models were able to discover synthesis parameters for a target quinary alloy in 14 iterations. We also demonstrate the capability of these models to be used in transfer learning tasks. RF and GP models trained on lower dimensional systems (i.e., ternary, quarternary) show an immediate improvement in prediction accuracy compared to models trained only on quinary samples. Furthermore, samples that only share a few elements in common with the target composition can be used for model pre-training. We believe that such AL approaches can be widely adapted to significantly accelerate the exploration of compositionally complex materials.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Upper ocean mixing, surface heat fluxes, and heat content variability in the upper 150 m during Hurricane Laura (2020)

Observations (from thermistor sensors and a hurricane glider) and model-based temperature were used to answer questions including the following: 1) What physical and environmental conditions explain the rapid intensification of Hurricane Laura? 2) How did the pre-existing warm mixed layer at Stone mooring (StM) influence the degree of cooling in the mixed layer? 3) How did vertical mixing, surface heat fluxes, and advective processes collectively shape the mixed layer heat evolution at StM? Observations measured by thermistor sensors showed that Hurricane Laura induced a cooling of -1.2oC in the mixed layer when Hurricane Laura’s wind speed increased to 47 m/s on 26 August. This contrasts with the -1.04oC mixed layer temperature change estimated from model-based temperature. At StM, the presence of a 31oC warm mixed layer and elevated heat content (60-80kJ/cm2) effectively preconditioned the upper ocean ahead of Hurricane Laura’s passage. After Hurricane Laura passed, turbulent mixing associated with the storm transported the heat anomalies downward into subsurface layers. In addition, this study shows that a surface heat flux of 5.04 kJ/cm2 supported the intensity of Hurricane Laura as it traversed over the StM. Using a mixed layer heat balance model, this study shows that entrainment flux and surface flux mostly contributed to the observed change in the mixed layer temperature.

Tsai, Senam↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ionic Precursors Transformed Into Vinyl Acetate Synthesis Catalyst via Reaction-Driven Restructuring

Conventional preparation of supported bimetallic catalysts relies on solution-mediated metal salt immobilization and pre-formation of alloy nanoparticles before reaction. Here, we report a fundamentally different synthesis strategy of using a physical mixture of salt precursors to generate an active catalyst during reaction. The catalytic structure is generated in situ from Pd3(OAc)6, Au(OH)3, and KOAc through H2 treatment and reaction-driven restructuring under vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) synthesis conditions. Ascertained from in situ X-ray diffraction and operando infrared spectroscopy analyses, reduction treatment produces segregated Pd and Au domains, and subsequent exposure to a VAM reaction mixture triggers dynamic extraction of Pd from the metal surface. This latter process, mediated by acetate-assisted redox cycles, facilitates Pd migration toward Au domains to form a near-surface localized Pd50Au50 alloy phase. Monometallic Pd domains serve as a reservoir of Pd to the alloy phase, leading to and sustaining a more Pd-enriched active surface and a higher population of accessible Pd sites, compared to a conventionally prepared K-PdAu/SiO2 catalyst. Consequently, this leads to a twofold increase in the VAM formation rate, demonstrating highly active bimetallic catalysts can be generated through the gas-phase treatment of physically mixed ionic precursors.

Cha, Byeong Jun [Rice University]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Taking three-dimensional x-ray diffraction (3DXRD) from the synchrotron to the laboratory scale

Three-dimensional x-ray diffraction (3DXRD), a rotating x-ray diffraction technique, is a powerful tool for studying the micromechanical behavior of polycrystalline materials, capable of measuring the volume, position, orientation, and strain of thousands of grains simultaneously. However, its application has been historically limited to synchrotron facilities. Here, we present the first demonstration of laboratory-scale 3DXRD (Lab-3DXRD) using a liquid-metal-jet source. Lab-3DXRD achieves accuracy comparable to synchrotron-based 3DXRD, as validated against laboratory diffraction contrast tomography (LabDCT) and synchrotron-3DXRD. Over 96% of the grains detected with Lab-3DXRD are cross-validated, particularly for coarse grains (> ~60 μm), while the results suggest that finer grains should be accessible by taking advantage of high-efficiency detectors. We further demonstrate that its sensitivity to finer grains is enhanced by incorporating pre-characterization into the analysis. This study establishes Lab-3DXRD as a practical alternative to synchrotron techniques, making 3DXRD accessible to a wider range of academic and industrial researchers.

characterization and analytical techniques↗

DOE OSTI2026

Best Practices for Resilience Hub Development and Management

The Carbon League and its community partners in East St. Louis, Illinois, have identified five facilities to serve as resilience hubs. These hubs are intended to support the local community through a range of services and resources during blue-sky (everyday), gray-sky (pre-event), and black-sky (emergency) conditions. Transforming these facilities into fully functional resilience hubs requires a broad operational improvement and programmatic planning roadmap. This memo outlines best practices to guide the development of these resilience hubs in East St. Louis, including recommendations for infrastructure services; safety and physical protection; community services; operational protocols; and a phased implementation strategy aligned with realistic funding and capacity constraints. Infrastructure recommendations include strengthening electric power, communications, water, sanitation, and transportation/logistics capabilities, all of which are essential for hubs that may serve as cooling and warming centers, distribution points, and information hubs during emergencies. Safety recommendations focus on accessibility, emergency action planning, indoor air quality, and secure storage of critical equipment. A phased roadmap provides guidance from immediate, low-cost readiness actions to long-term optimization and community integration. Performance metrics and maintenance protocols ensure continuous improvement and operational readiness. This guidance draws on best practices that can be used to support the development of resilient, community-centered hubs capable of enhancing public safety, health, and well-being during everyday operations and emergencies alike.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-sensor Observations of a High-velocity Fireball over the South Atlantic on 2026 April 1

A high-velocity fireball was detected over the South Atlantic (41.9°S, 54.7°W) on 2026 April 1 at 02:13:14 UTC by U.S. Government (USG) sensors, with peak brightness at 90.5 km altitude. The event was well-observed from geostationary orbit by two civilian lightning imagers with near-orthogonal geometry, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-East Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Meteosat Third Generation Imager 1 Lightning Imager, and it produced low-frequency acoustic signatures. The GLM measured a total radiated energy of 2.4 × 10 10 J, corresponding to a calculated impact energy of 0.086 kt TNT equivalent. Stereoscopic triangulation of the imager tracks yields an independent pre-atmospheric velocity of ~57 km s −1 , some 18% below the USG-reported value. Because orbital provenance is acutely sensitive to the entry velocity, whose reported uncertainty could be substantial, this discrepancy is notable. We document the multi-sensor record and identify the analysis required to assess provenance, which a subsequent study will present.

Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Lab. (↗

DOE OSTI2027

A multi-region approach for the analysis of porous materials and gas-solid reactions using USAXS-SAXS-WAXS: application to CaO carbonation

The reaction rate of gas-solid non-catalytic reactions is typically investigated using reactant conversion data over time and ex-situ measurements of the porous solid reactant textural properties; these data enable the experimental estimation of the initial intrinsic reaction rate, whereas the evolution of the textural properties and the reaction rate over time are evaluated theoretically using reaction models. In this work, a different methodology is presented, based on: a) in-situ time-resolved USAXS-SAXS-WAXS measurements of the solid sample, and b) a multi-region modeling approach; this methodology allows for the estimation of the textural properties and the intrinsic reaction rate at any time during the reaction. Referring to a reaction in which a solid product is obtained from a solid reactant and a gaseous reactant, the porous particle is described as consisting of several distinct regions with different microstructural properties, and both a gas-solid reaction model and a SAXS model are derived and applied to the carbonation of porous CaO. The proposed reaction model highlights the role of the inaccessible reactant and accurately predicts the solid reactant conversion versus time profile. The SAXS model accurately predicts the measured linear trends of the Porod invariant and of the pre-factor of the power law scattering profile versus CaO mass fraction; in the absence of chemical reactions, the proposed equations extend classical SAXS theory to porous materials containing macropores and nonporous solid phases in addition to standard nanoscale inhomogeneous regions.

CO2 solid sorbents↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗